QIAGEN N.V. (QGEN): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $41.91, QIAGEN N.V. (QGEN) is priced for +8.1% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-28.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/QGEN

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 7.8% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~7.6pp.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~18.5%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple; asset-based/earnings-power/growth-DCF land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Relative Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.0%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=18)

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

QIAGEN is a mature molecular-testing company, not a growth story, and the price should be read that way. At $36.96 the market pays roughly 19 times company-wide operating income, which implies operating profit compounding only about 4% a year for five years. That is within what a steady diagnostics franchise can deliver; the demand is on durability, not pace.

The methods split by family. Relative-multiple methods reach the price (sector P/E value near $45, EV/EBITDA near $44, price-to-sales near $38), while the earnings-power and asset methods sit well below it (earnings power near $20, FCF-based value near $18, book-anchored excess return near $21). The price is supported by where peers trade, not by what the business currently earns.

The near-term issue is a guidance cut. Full-year 2026 sales growth was lowered to about 1 to 2% at constant currency from at least 5%, with QuantiFERON immigration testing demand the main drag. The bet is that the broader portfolio (sample technologies, digital PCR) keeps growing while one product line normalizes.

Bull Case

Frame QIAGEN by its stage and the case reads differently than a headline guidance cut suggests. This is a mature, diversified molecular-tools and diagnostics business spanning sample preparation, diagnostic solutions, PCR and amplification, and genomics, with no single segment above 38% of the mix. Mature companies are valued on durability of earnings and cash conversion, not on a growth rate, and at $36.96 (June 28, 2026) the price is asking for only about 4% annual operating-profit growth over five years. For a franchise whose consumables and installed-base model generates recurring revenue, that is a modest bar, well within what the company has historically delivered.

The underlying portfolio is still growing where it matters. In the first quarter of 2026 sample technologies grew 9% at constant exchange rates, supported by demand for automated consumables and instrument placements, and the digital-PCR (QIAcuity) and diagnostics lines also posted solid growth. The weakness was concentrated in one product, QuantiFERON, where immigration-testing demand fell. A business where the broad base grows high-single-digits while a single line corrects is showing diversification working, not a structural decline.

The relative-valuation family supports the price, which is the relevant test for a mature name. The sector-multiple method lands near $45, EV/EBITDA near $44, and price-to-sales near $38, all at or above today's quote. The balance sheet is comfortable: net debt near $556 million against trailing operating income that covers interest roughly 8 times, and the share count has been shrinking modestly. For a holder, the bull case is not heroic growth; it is a recurring-revenue diagnostics platform priced for low-single-digit growth, trading in line with where its peer multiples sit, while it returns cash and buys back stock through the QuantiFERON air pocket.

Bear Case

The external variable with the most leverage on this thesis is policy demand for testing, and the price does not reflect how exposed QIAGEN has become to it. QuantiFERON, the latent-tuberculosis test, depends materially on immigration screening, and the company has flagged a significant decline in immigration-testing demand in the United States and the Middle East. That is not a competitive problem the company can out-execute; it is a policy and geopolitical variable set outside the business. QIAGEN now expects QuantiFERON full-year 2026 sales to be flat at constant currency against the prior year's roughly $503 million, after years of growth, and that single reversal was enough to force a full-year cut.

The cut was not small. Management lowered full-year 2026 net sales growth to about 1 to 2% at constant currency from a prior outlook of at least 5%, and trimmed adjusted earnings per share guidance to at least $2.43 from at least $2.50, citing the QuantiFERON headwind plus sustained caution among US Life Sciences customers and increased geopolitical uncertainty. First-quarter constant-currency sales were actually down about 1% against an outlook for at least 1% growth. When three of the named headwinds, immigration policy, government and academic research budgets, and geopolitics, are all macro variables, the earnings stream is more cyclical and more exposed than a diagnostics multiple typically prices.

The valuation has limited cushion if the macro pressure persists. The methods that value the business on what it earns today, rather than on peer multiples, sit far below the price: earnings power value near $20, FCF-based value near $18, simple excess return near $21, and the perpetual-growth DCF near $22, the last built on slightly negative historical revenue growth. Only the relative-multiple family reaches the price, and relative multiples compress fastest exactly when sector sentiment turns. The model's reasonable-value band runs from about $36 at the low to $43 at the base, so today's price already sits near the bottom of that range, meaning the market has partly absorbed the cut but is still leaning on peer multiples holding up while the macro variables that drove the downgrade have not clearly stabilized.

Valuation

Inverted, the price tells a measured story. At $36.96 QIAGEN trades at roughly 19 times company-wide operating income, which solves to operating-profit growth of about 4% a year for five years at a 7.7% cost of capital. Each one-point change in the cost of capital moves that implied growth rate about seven points, so treat the figure as approximate. Against the company's own history a 4% pace is reachable; the priced-in assumption reads as within range, with the caveat that comparison data is limited so the label is directional.

The method families sort cleanly. The relative-multiple family reaches the price: sector P/E value near $45, EV/EBITDA near $44, price-to-sales near $38. The earnings-power and asset families fall short: earnings power value near $20, FCF yield near $18, simple excess return near $21, two-stage excess return near $23, Graham number near $27. The blended central estimate that survives the screen is about $29, below the price, which is why the characterization is that relative multiples justify the price while the asset, earnings, and growth-DCF methods say it is expensive. The reasonable-growth band runs from about $36 at the low to $43 at the base, with the high case near $77.

The reconciliation is the difference between a mature recurring-revenue business and a cheap one. The relative methods say QIAGEN should trade where its peers trade, and it roughly does; the earnings methods say that on current cash generation the price embeds a premium for stability. One data note: the trailing operating-income figure used in the inversion and the EDGAR quarterly measure diverge here, so the inversion multiple is best read as approximate and the qualitative split across families is the more reliable signal. The balance sheet is not the question, with net debt near $556 million and interest coverage near 8 times; earnings durability through the current macro headwinds is.

Catalysts

The defining recent catalyst was the first-quarter 2026 report and the accompanying full-year guidance cut. Net sales were $492 million, up 2% reported but down about 1% at constant currency against an outlook for at least 1% growth, and adjusted diluted EPS at constant currency was $0.54, in line with the outlook. Management lowered full-year 2026 net sales growth to about 1 to 2% at constant currency from at least 5%, and trimmed adjusted EPS guidance to at least $2.43 from at least $2.50.

The single most important swing factor is QuantiFERON, where the company now expects full-year sales flat at constant currency versus the prior year's roughly $503 million, with immigration-testing demand in the United States and the Middle East the cause. Any stabilization or further decline in that demand will move the thesis. On the positive side, sample technologies grew 9% at constant currency and the QIAcuity digital-PCR and diagnostics lines grew solidly, so the next print's read on whether the broad portfolio keeps offsetting QuantiFERON is the key marker.

The wider risks to track are US Life Sciences customer caution (research and academic budgets) and geopolitical uncertainty, both named by management as drivers of the downgrade. Continued capital return through buybacks is the offsetting positive worth watching.

Sources: QIAGEN Q1 2026 results (BioSpace, Nasdaq, businesswire.com, TipRanks), QIAGEN corporate press releases.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Core business (reported)

• IDXX (IDEXX LABORATORIES INC /DE)
• FY2025 10-K: …our competition, refer to "Part I, Item 1A. Risk Factors." Competitive factors in our different business areas are detailed below: • Companion animal diagnostic offerings . We compete primarily on the basis of ease of use and speed of our products, diagnostic accuracy, product quality, breadth of our product line and…
• FY2025 10-K: …operator of corporate hospital chains that also sells veterinary point-of-care diagnostic instruments. Consolidation among our competitors and our customers may intensify the competition we face. While we believe that our offerings are competitively differentiated due to our innovative products and services that…
• TECH (BIO-TECHNE Corp)
• FY2025 10-K: …gross margin ​ $ 856,303 ​ $ 820,293 ​ $ 814,043 ​ Adjusted gross margin percentage (3) ​ ​ 70.4 % ​ 71.0 % ​ 71.7 % (1) Includes the quarterly results of the partially-owned consolidated subsidiary prior to the sale of this partially-owned consolidated subsidiary to a third party in the first fiscal quarter of 2023.…
• FY2025 10-K: …and manufacturing, refer to "Item 1A. Risk Factors." COMPETITION Although our segments both generally operate in highly competitive markets, it is difficult to determine our competitive position, either in the aggregate or by segment, since none of our competitors offer all of the same product and service lines or…
• NTRA (NATERA, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: ​ 1,267 Gross margin ​ $ 1,493,180 ​ $ 1,023,158 ​ $ 492,740 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Gross margin percentage ​ ​ 64.7 % ​ ​ 60.3 % ​ ​ 45.5 % ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ 128 Table of Contents ​ ​ 17. Subsequent Events Subsequent to December 31, 2025, the Company entered into a new lease arrangement for additional laboratory space…
• FY2025 10-K: …disclosure of incremental segment information on an interim and annual basis that are regularly provided to the chief operating decision maker (the "CODM") and included within each reported measure of segment profit or loss. The Company has adopted this ASU as of December 31, 2024. The Company currently operates as a…
• GH (GUARDANT HEALTH, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …relationships, with biopharmaceutical companies, our revenue prospects could be reduced. • If we cannot compete successfully with our competitors, we may be unable to increase or sustain our revenue or to achieve and then sustain profitability. • If we continue to experience challenges attracting and retaining…
• FY2025 10-K: …development programs by a number of potential competitors, and increasing levels of merger and acquisition activity by both existing and new competitors. 11 We believe key competitive factors affecting our success are the price and performance of our products, evidence of clinical differentiation, support by KOLs,…
• ABT (ABBOTT LABORATORIES)
• FY2025 10-K: 2024. In 2025, operating earnings for the Nutritional Products segment increased 3.5 percent compared to 2024. Operating margin profile for this segment increased from 16.4 percent in 2023 to 17.9 percent in 2024 and to 18.4 percent in 2025. The increase in 2025 primarily reflects the favorable effect of margin…
• FY2025 10-K: …Core Laboratory, Rapid Diagnostics, Molecular, and Point of Care businesses are aggregated and reported as the Diagnostic Products segment. Medical Devices -Worldwide sales of rhythm management, electrophysiology, heart failure, vascular, structural heart, neuromodulation, and diabetes care products. For segment…
• LNTH (LANTHEUS HOLDINGS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …as well as our expanding product portfolio, are important factors that distinguish us from our competitors. The markets for our products are highly competitive and continually evolving. Our competitors for our current commercial products and leading clinical development candidates include large, global companies that…
• FY2025 10-K: …and RayzeBio (acquired by Bristol Myers Squibb). For MK-6240 and NAV-4694, our principal competitors may include Lilly and GE Healthcare. For LNTH-2501, our principal competitors may include Curium and Novartis AG. We cannot anticipate the actions of our current or future competitors in the same or competing…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.