United Parks & Resorts Inc. (PRKS): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $46.04, United Parks & Resorts Inc. (PRKS) is priced for -0.1% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-28.
Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/PRKS
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | PRKS |
| Company | United Parks & Resorts Inc. |
| Current price | $46.04/sh |
| Composition | Admissions 53% / Food, merchandise and other 47% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (value-band context) | 8.2% |
| Operating margin today | 20.6% |
| Margin compression (value-band) | -12.4pp |
| Implied growth | -0.1% |
| Multiple paid | 14x operating income |
The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.4% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~6.1pp.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | +0.46σ |
| cohort percentile (of 34 peers) | 38 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | — | 0 | — |
| Earnings | — | 0 | — |
| Relative | 1.01x | 2 | expensive |
| Growth | — | 0 | — |
Families that justify the price: Relative
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 5.0%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=2)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $28.74 | 1.60x | no | FCF base $0.2B, growth -3% (input: historical growth), terminal g 0.5%, WACC 5.0%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $48.02 | 0.96x | no | Exit EV/EBITDA: 6.7x / 8.7x / 10.7x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $43.05 | 1.07x | yes | P/E 14x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 11.9x / 14.0x / 16.1x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 9x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $25.38 | 1.81x | no | Rev $1.7B, growth -3% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.1x / 1.3x / 1.5x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Growth-Adjusted P/E | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $98.38 | 0.47x | no | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.45B × (1−21%) / WACC 5.0% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Graham Number | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $48.85 | 0.94x | yes | EBITDA $0.52B × sector EV/EBITDA 9.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.01 | 4604.00x | yes | FCF $190.9M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity (excluded from median) |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.01 | 4604.00x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.17B (FCF $0.19B − SBC $0.02B) capitalized at Kₑ (excluded from median) |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $2.23 | 20.65x | yes | EPS $2.66 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $70.18 | 0.66x | no | Revenue $1.65B × sector P/S 2.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $28.76 | 1.60x | no | EPS $2.66 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Parks & Resorts (theme parks, aggregated) | operating | enterprise | 1.7B reported-currency | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $2.2b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 8.33x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 6.58x |
| Interest coverage | 2.6x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -10.1% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
- United Parks runs theme parks including SeaWorld and Busch Gardens, with revenue split between admissions (about 53%) and in-park food, merchandise, and other (47%). It is a high-margin but capital-intensive and seasonal business.
- The balance sheet is the defining feature: net debt near $2.24 billion at about 6.6 times operating income, with interest coverage around 2.6 times. Management has used that leverage to buy back stock aggressively, shrinking the share count roughly 10% a year.
- At $46.65 the price embeds only about 3.5% operating growth, a low bar, with the relative-multiple frame supporting it and a reasonable-growth base above the quote. The swing factors are attendance and the consumer.
Bull Case
The most revealing thing about United Parks is how management uses its balance sheet, because it tells you what they think the business is worth. The company carries net debt near $2.24 billion, and rather than pay it down quickly it has been buying back stock with extraordinary intensity, retiring about 4.4 million shares for $157.5 million in a single stretch and shrinking the share count by roughly 10% a year. A management team that levers up to repurchase its own equity at this pace is signaling deep conviction that the stock is undervalued and that the cash flows are durable enough to service the debt. For a high-margin cash generator, that is a defensible bet, and it concentrates each remaining share's claim on the parks.
The underlying business has a strong value proposition and pricing power. The filing argues theme parks "offer a strong consumer value proposition, particularly when compared to other forms of out-of-home entertainment such as concerts, sporting events, cruises and movies," and "generally exhibit strong operating margin" (FY2025 10-K). That pricing power showed even in a soft quarter: first-quarter 2026 in-park per-capita spending hit a record, up more than 5% to $40.62, and total revenue per capita rose 2.1% to $86.43, even as attendance dipped. The parks are irreplaceable assets in their markets, and management is pushing per-cap higher through food, merchandise, and hotel and sponsorship expansion.
The valuation asks very little. At $46.65 (June 28, 2026) the implied bar is only about 3.5% operating-profit growth per year, within what the company has delivered, and the relative-multiple frame supports the current price. A reasonable-growth re-pricing lands the base near $60, above the quote, with substantial upside in the high case if attendance recovers. Management reaffirmed confidence in 2026 growth despite the soft start, citing new attractions, $50 million of gross cost savings, sponsorship growth, and continued buybacks. The bull case is a high-margin, asset-rich operator whose aggressive buyback compounds value while the price asks for almost no growth.
Bear Case
The structural truth a holder has to face is that this is a highly leveraged, discretionary business, and the buyback that the bulls admire is the same thing that has driven the company into a stockholders' deficit. Net debt sits near $2.24 billion, about 6.6 times operating income, interest coverage is only about 2.6 times, and the equity has gone negative as repurchases have outrun retained earnings. The filing is explicit that the debt covenants "place restrictions on, among other things, our ability to incur additional indebtedness, pay dividends and other distributions, make capital expenditures" (FY2025 10-K), and that buybacks "may be funded by incurring new debt" (FY2025 10-K). Levering up to buy stock works beautifully until attendance falls, and then the same leverage amplifies the downside.
Attendance is the second exposure, and it is showing strain. First-quarter 2026 attendance fell 5% to about 3.22 million, revenue declined 3%, adjusted EBITDA dropped 14.1%, and the company posted a net loss of $34.1 million that missed expectations. Management blamed weather and soft international tourism, which may be transitory, but the broader risk is that theme park visits are deeply discretionary. In a weaker economy, families cut the trip to SeaWorld before they cut the essentials, and a leveraged operator has little room to absorb a multi-quarter attendance decline.
The competitive and reputational backdrop rounds it out. The filing notes the parks "compete with other theme, water and amusement parks and with other types of" entertainment (FY2025 10-K), and the SeaWorld brand has carried reputational baggage around its animal attractions that periodically resurfaces. The free-cash-flow methods read the price as expensive once the heavy capital intensity of refreshing rides and attractions is accounted for, and only the relative-multiple frame supports the quote. If attendance does not recover, the consumer weakens, or rates keep the debt expensive, the combination of high leverage and a discretionary, weather-exposed revenue base is exactly the fragility the low implied-growth bar masks.
Valuation
The valuation rests almost entirely on the relative-multiple frame, which supports the $46.65 price; the enterprise-value-to-EBITDA comparison lands right at the quote and the relative-valuation method modestly above. The free-cash-flow methods, by contrast, read the price as expensive once the capital intensity of maintaining and refreshing the parks is accounted for, and the asset-based methods are not meaningful given the negative book equity from the buybacks. A reasonable-growth re-pricing puts the base near $60 with a wide range up toward $135 in the high case, reflecting the operating leverage if attendance recovers.
Inverting the price into the assumption it embeds, the market is paying about 16 times company-wide operating income, which implies roughly 3.5% operating-profit growth per year for five years at an 8.4% cost of capital. That is a low bar, within what the company has delivered, so the price is not demanding much growth; the question is duration, not whether the rate is achievable. The sensitivity is moderate, with each one-point move in the cost of capital shifting the implied growth by about 6.4 points.
The honest conclusion is that the price looks undemanding on the implied-growth math and the relative-multiple frame, with a base value above the quote, but the leverage makes the equity a magnified bet on attendance and the consumer. The low growth bar provides some cushion, but the negative book equity and free-cash-flow methods reading the price as full are the cautions. This is a high-margin, asset-rich, but financially aggressive operator, priced cheaply for a reason: the downside, if attendance disappoints, is amplified by the debt.
Catalysts
The near-term catalysts are the attendance recovery and the per-capita spending trend. First-quarter 2026, a seasonally small quarter, saw attendance fall 5% to about 3.22 million and revenue decline 3% to $278.3 million, with adjusted EBITDA down 14.1% and a net loss of $34.1 million, which management attributed to poor weather in San Diego and Florida and softer international tourism. Offsetting that, in-park per-capita spending hit a record, up 5.3% to $40.62. Management expects weather and international comparisons to improve later in the year, so the peak summer quarters are the real test of the 2026 thesis.
The self-help and capital-return levers are the second driver. The company is targeting $50 million of gross cost savings for 2026, pushing new attractions, hotel and food-and-beverage expansion, and sponsorship growth to lift per-capita spend, and it continues to repurchase stock aggressively, having bought back 4.4 million shares for $157.5 million. Continued buybacks at a low multiple are directly accretive, though they add to the leverage.
The risks to watch are the consumer environment, the weather and international-visitation comparisons, and the debt load. Analyst sentiment is mixed, with Mizuho lifting its target to $48 and maintaining Outperform while Stifel downgraded to Hold with a $40 target after the soft quarter. The stock has also traded on macro sentiment, rising when easing rates and oil prices improved the outlook for discretionary spending. The summer attendance numbers will be the decisive data points.
Sources:
- https://www.stocktitan.net/news/PRKS/united-parks-resorts-inc-reports-first-quarter-2026-ueo6fu811fes.html
- https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/united-parks-resorts-q1-earnings-110547852.html
- https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/price-target/26/05/52500197/these-analysts-revise-their-forecasts-on-united-parks-resorts-after-q1-results
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/prks/forecast/
- https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nyse-prks/united-parks-resorts/news/united-parks-resorts-prks-is-up-139-after-macro-tailwinds-ea/amp
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
United Parks & Resorts (theme parks, aggregated) (reported)
- FUN (Six Flags Entertainment Corporation/NEW)
- FY2025 10-K: …season and do not vary significantly with attendance. Management reviews operating results, evaluates performance and makes operating decisions, including allocating resources, on a park-by-park basis. Discrete financial information and operating results are prepared at the individual park level for use by the CEO,…
- FY2025 10-K: …Combined Company results from July 1, 2024 through December 31, 2024. Business Overview The Company is North America's largest regional amusement park operator with 26 amusement parks, 15 separately gated water parks and nine resorts. Of the 41 amusement and water parks, 37 are located in the United States, two are…
- MTN (Vail Resorts, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …Park City and Canyons resort, allowing access between the two former resorts for the first time, connecting the base of the Silverlode Lift at Park City with the Flatiron Lift at Canyons. • Terrain Parks We are committed to leading the industry in terrain park design, education and events for the growing segment of…
- FY2025 10-K: …an option pricing valuation model. The estimated fair value of Contingent Consideration includes future period resort operations of Park City in the calculation of EBITDA on which participating contingent payments are made, which is determined on the basis of estimated subsequent year performance, escalated by an…
- OSW (OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited)
- FY2025 10-K: …statements of operations, were $ 0.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, and $ 0.4 million for each of the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023. 17. Segment and Geographic Information The Company operates health and wellness centers on cruise ships and in destination resorts, offering health and wellness…
- FY2025 10-K: …the Commonwealth of The Bahamas. OneSpaWorld is a global provider and innovator in the fields of health, wellness, aesthetics and fitness. In facilities on cruise ships and in land-based destination resorts, the Company strives to create a relaxing and therapeutic environment where guests can receive health,…
- MSGE (MADISON SQUARE GARDEN ENTERTAINMENT CORP.)
- FY2025 10-K: …expenses. Such estimates include the provision for credit losses, goodwill, intangible assets, other long-lived assets, deferred tax assets, pension and other postretirement benefit obligations and the related net periodic benefit cost, and other liabilities. In addition, estimates are used in revenue recognition,…
- FY2025 10-K: …a loss of $ 4,383 , net of transaction costs. The loss on the aircraft disposition was recorded in Gains, net on dispositions in the consolidated and combined statements of operations. Note 4. Revenue Recognition All revenue recognized in the consolidated and combined statements of operations is considered to be…
- CHDN (Churchill Downs Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: …HRM entertainment venues in several states. • Gaming The Gaming segment includes revenue and expenses for the wholly owned casino properties and associated racetrack facilities. The Gaming segment also includes our share of our equity investments in Illinois and Ohio. The Gaming segment generates revenue and expenses…
- FY2025 10-K: …$ 81.5 million as of December 31, 2024. Contract liabilities are included in current deferred revenue, non-current deferred revenue, and accrued expense and other current liabilities in the accompanying Consolidated Balance Sheets. Contract liabilities primarily relate to our Live and Historical Racing segment. The…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.