PROCEPT BioRobotics Corporation (PRCT): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $19.35, PROCEPT BioRobotics Corporation (PRCT) is priced for +8.5% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-28.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/PRCT

Headline

FieldValue
TickerPRCT
CompanyPROCEPT BioRobotics Corporation
Current price$19.35/sh
CompositionSystem sales and rentals 34% / Handpieces and other consumables 59% / Service 6%

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basisrevenue-multiple
EV / sales paid2.9x
Steady-state operating margin assumed25.5%
Implied growth8.5%

The company earns no operating profit yet; the inversion runs on the revenue multiple and an assumed steady-state margin.

Solve inputs: computed at a 11% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage, holding a 25.5% terminal operating margin (63.7% gross margin x the 40% mature-conversion prior); each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied revenue growth ~5.3pp.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~-0.8%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

ReferenceValue
vs own history-1.41σ
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset3.32x2expensive
Earnings—0—
Relative0.85x2justifies
Growth0.82x2justifies

Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=6)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$0.00—noNegative/zero FCF — equity value floored at $0
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$0.00—noNegative/zero FCF or EBITDA — equity value floored at $0
Relative ValuationRelative$22.790.85xyesP/S fallback (negative EPS): Sector P/S 4.0x × TTM revenue — excluded from consensus
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth——no—
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$6.153.15xyesBook value floor: BV/sh $6.15, ROE negative
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$5.543.49xyesBook value with convergence: BV/sh $6.15, ROE converges to ke
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$28.080.69xyesRev $0.3B, growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.7x / 3.4x / 4.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$0.00—noNegative/zero EPS — earnings-based value floored at $0
Margin TrajectoryGrowth$20.170.96xyesMargin ramp: -32% → 12% over 7yr, rev growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered)
Earnings Power ValueEarnings——no—
Residual IncomeAsset——no—
Graham NumberAsset——no—
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative——no—
FCF YieldEarnings——no—
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings——no—
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings——no—
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset——no—
P/Sales SectorRelative$22.790.85xyesRevenue $0.32B × sector P/S 4.0x
PEG Fair ValueRelative——no—
Earnings YieldEarnings——no—
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.

UnitRoleValuation basisRevenueReported profitValue evidenceStatus
PROCEPT BioRobotics (consolidated)operatingenterprise0.3B reported-currency—withheldunresolved no unit value

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

FieldValue
Net cash$194.0m
Interest coverage-30.9x
Share count CAGR (dilution)6.5%
Burning cashyes

Operating profit is negative or near zero and the company has no demonstrated through-cycle (mid-cycle) operating margin to normalize against, so years-to-repay cannot be computed honestly.

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

The most important thing about Procept is the direction every key metric is moving, because a razor-and-blade medical-device business is built on momentum that compounds. In the first quarter of 2026 revenue grew 20% to $83.1 million, U.S. Aquablation procedures rose about 30% to roughly 12,200, and the installed base of HYDROS systems reached 765, up 40% year over year. That last number is the engine: each system placed becomes a recurring consumable annuity. The filing lays out the model directly, with growth strategy elements to "grow our install base of robotic systems by driving adoption of Aquablation therapy among urologists" and to "increase system utilization" once a system is placed (FY2025 10-K). More systems times more procedures per system is a multiplicative growth curve, and it is bending the right way.

The margin trajectory backs the revenue trajectory. Gross margin is guided to about 65% in 2026 and 68% to 70% in 2027, and management has set a target of positive adjusted EBITDA by the fourth quarter of 2026, with adjusted EBITDA turning positive in 2027. The losses are narrowing as the consumable mix grows and the system base scales, which is exactly the inflection a high-growth device company needs to show. The clinical case is strengthening too, with stronger European guideline support for Aquablation and AI software clearance for the HYDROS system.

The runway and the market opportunity make the growth credible. Procept holds nearly $250 million of cash after the quarter, enough to reach the EBITDA inflection without an urgent raise, and management estimates Aquablation has penetrated only about 10% to 25% of the U.S. BPH surgical market. That is a long runway in a large, underpenetrated indication. At $21.73 the implied bar, roughly 15% revenue growth and a 25% eventual operating margin, is within what the company has been delivering and below its near-term guided pace. A reasonable-growth re-pricing lands the base above the current price, so the market is paying a fair price for a business that is executing on adoption.

Bear Case

The bear case lives in the assumptions baked into the price, and the most fragile one is the leap to durable profitability while still burning cash. At $21.73 the price assumes the business eventually earns about a 25% operating margin, but it is currently running a negative operating margin around 34%, with a Q1 net loss of $31.6 million that widened from a year earlier and an adjusted EBITDA loss that grew. The entire valuation depends on a multi-year path from deep losses to a 25% margin, and any stumble, slower adoption, pricing pressure on consumables, or a heavier sales investment to keep growth up, pushes that inflection out and undercuts the assumption the price rests on.

The second fragile assumption is sustained 15%-plus growth against intensifying competition. Procept's practical competition is not a like-for-like robot; it is the entrenched menu of BPH treatments. The filing names "those manufacturers producing devices for the TURP procedure and laser-based therapies marketed by Boston Scientific Corporation," plus non-resective options like "UroLift marketed by Teleflex Incorporated" (FY2025 10-K). Urologists have established habits and reimbursement patterns, and the filing also flags that changes in "third-party reimbursement policies" could hurt demand (FY2025 10-K). A Leerink downgrade in June 2026 cited exactly this, intensifying BPH-robotics competition and questions about near-term momentum, and a short-seller report has challenged the market and safety narrative.

The third risk is that the price already embeds the optimistic version. Only about 48% of comparable fast-growers sustained the implied pace for five years, so the duration assumption is a coin flip historically. The asset-based methods read the price as expensive, leaving the case to the growth and relative methods, which means the support is forward-looking and thin if growth decelerates. There is no profit, no dividend, and a share count that has grown, so a holder is fully exposed to execution. If adoption plateaus before the margin inflection, the stock has little to fall back on.

Valuation

Because Procept is not yet profitable, the price is set against sales rather than earnings. At about 3.4 times revenue, the relative-multiple and growth-DCF methods support the $21.73 price, while the asset-based methods read it as expensive. The asset methods sitting far below is the reminder that there is little tangible-value floor; the case is the growth.

Inverting the price into the assumption it embeds, the market is paying about 3.4 times revenue, which implies the business eventually earns roughly a 25.5% operating margin and grows revenue about 15% per year for the next several years, at an 11.2% cost of capital. Against the company's own recent history that pace is within range, and below the 27% to 33% it is currently guiding, so the near-term bar is achievable. The harder part is duration and the margin: only about 48% of comparable fast-growers sustained this pace for five years, and the implied 25% margin assumes a clean march from today's losses.

The honest conclusion is that the price is reasonable if Aquablation adoption keeps compounding and the margin inflection arrives on schedule, and full if either slips. The sensitivity is meaningful, with each one-point move in the cost of capital shifting the implied growth by about 5.9 points. This is a growth-and-margin-inflection bet on a razor-and-blade device franchise, priced close to fair on a forward view but with no current-earnings cushion.

Catalysts

The near-term catalysts are the adoption metrics and the margin inflection. First-quarter 2026 revenue rose 20% to $83.1 million, U.S. procedures grew about 30% to roughly 12,200, and the install base reached 765 HYDROS systems, up 40%. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $390 million to $410 million, implying 27% to 33% growth, with gross margin around 65%, and targets positive adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2026. The quarterly cadence of system placements, procedure volume, and the move toward EBITDA breakeven are the metrics that will move the stock.

Clinical and commercial milestones are the second driver. Stronger European treatment-guideline support for Aquablation and AI software clearance for the HYDROS system both expand the addressable opportunity and deepen the platform's clinical standing. With only about 10% to 25% of the U.S. BPH surgical market penetrated, continued guideline inclusion and international expansion are the levers for the long runway.

The risks to watch are competition and reimbursement. Boston Scientific and laser-based therapies, plus non-resective options like Teleflex's UroLift, are the entrenched alternatives, and a Leerink downgrade in June 2026 flagged intensifying BPH-robotics competition. A short-seller report has also challenged the company's market and safety claims. Analyst sentiment still leans Buy with an average target in the mid-$30s, well above the current price, but the wide range and the recent downgrade reflect debate over near-term momentum. Procept pays no dividend; the return depends entirely on execution toward profitability.

Sources:

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

PROCEPT BioRobotics (consolidated) (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

View the full interactive PRCT report on boothcheck