PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY (POR): what the price requires

The current priced-in claim for PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY (POR) is temporarily suppressed because the live engine record is unavailable. The dated report remains a snapshot, not a current market read.

Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/POR

Headline

FieldValue
TickerPOR
CompanyPORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY
Current price$53.25/sh

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Operating margin today15.9%
Multiple paid20x operating income

The price sits below what even a 5%/yr operating-profit decline would warrant; the inversion reports a bound, not a solved growth path.

Solve inputs: computed at a 6.2% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~15.9%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

ReferenceValue
vs own history-0.86σ
cohort percentile (of 70 peers)43
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple; asset-based/earnings-power/growth-DCF land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset2.88x5expensive
Earnings3.08x2expensive
Relative0.70x3justifies
Growth1.64x4expensive

Families that justify the price: Relative Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 5.8%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=14)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$0.00—noFCF base $0.1B, growth 2% (input: historical growth), terminal g 1.8%, WACC 5.7%, 5yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$33.341.60xyesExit EV/EBITDA: 8.1x / 10.1x / 12.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr
Relative ValuationRelative$62.130.86xyesP/E 20x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 16.9x / 20.0x / 23.1x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 13x
Simple DDMGrowth$69.430.77xyesDPS $2.07, g=6.1% (sustainable: ROE (TTM) × retention; not the terminal-growth assumption), ke=9.3%
Two-Stage DDMGrowth$14.523.67xyesStage 1: -17% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$23.362.28xyesBV/sh $35.47, ROE (TTM) 6.1%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$18.512.88xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$31.781.68xyesRev $3.5B, growth 2% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.5x / 1.8x / 2.0x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Growth-Adjusted P/ERelative——no—
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$13.473.95xyesNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.45B × (1−17%) / WACC 5.7% → EPV (no growth)
Residual IncomeAsset$17.872.98xyesBV $35.47 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 6.1% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 4.0%/yr
Graham NumberAsset$42.281.26xyes√(22.5 × EPS $2.24 × BVPS $35.47) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative$80.260.66xyesEBITDA $1.08B × sector EV/EBITDA 13.0x
FCF YieldEarnings$0.015324.50xyesFCF $66.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity (excluded from median)
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings——no—
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$1.8828.32xyesEPS $2.24 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$6.268.51xyesBV $35.47 × (ROIC 1.0% / WACC 5.7%)
P/Sales SectorRelative$75.840.70xyesRevenue $3.52B × sector P/S 2.5x
PEG Fair ValueRelative——no—
Earnings YieldEarnings$24.222.20xyesEPS $2.24 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$5.0b
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)10.53x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)8.77x
Interest coverage2.4x
Share count CAGR (dilution)6.7%
Burning cashno

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

Start with how the company is funding itself, because the financing plan is the clearest read on management's confidence. Portland General carries roughly $5 billion of net debt against about $0.49 billion of trailing operating income, and rather than lever further it is raising equity: a $480 million underwritten offering plus a new at-the-market program. The 10-K confirms the intent, noting that "PGE anticipates entering into a new at-the-market offering program in the first quarter of 2026" with proceeds for "investments in renewables and non-emitting dispatchable capacity" (FY2025 10-K). Selling stock near book to fund a regulated rate base is dilutive in the short run, but it signals a management team that wants a sound balance sheet going into a capital cycle rather than one stretched on leverage. For a utility, that conservatism is a feature.

The demand setup supports the spend. Industrial demand rose about 10% in the first quarter, driven by data-center and large-load growth in the Portland area, even as residential load softened, and management guides 2026 weather-adjusted load growth of 1.5% to 2.5%. A pending Oregon order would raise data-center rates by about 26%, an attempt to make large new customers pay for the capacity they require rather than spreading the cost across households. That is the same "growth pays for growth" logic that makes load growth accretive rather than dilutive to existing ratepayers.

On valuation, the price is asking very little. The implied bar is roughly negative 1% operating-profit growth over five years, which means the market is barely pricing in growth at all; the relative-multiple frame supports the current quote. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance of $3.33 to $3.53 per share, a 5% to 7% long-term earnings and dividend growth target, and raised the quarterly dividend 5% to about $0.55 per share, with a 60% to 70% payout target. The dividend yield near 4% is a real cash return while the rate base compounds, and the next general rate case, expected in the second half of 2026, is the event that converts the capital plan into earnings.

Bear Case

The truth a holder has to accept is that this is a heavily indebted utility issuing stock at a depressed price to fund a build whose return depends on a regulator. Net debt near $5 billion sits at about ten times trailing operating income, interest coverage is only about 2.0 times, and the equity raises that fund the plan dilute existing holders. The first quarter laid the strain bare: GAAP EPS fell 58% to $0.38 against a $1.07 consensus, and revenue declined about 5%. A utility that misses by that margin, even on weather and transition timing, is one whose earnings power is thinner than the steady-dividend story implies.

The regulatory and recovery risk is the structural exposure. Portland General does not set its own prices, and its filing is explicit that cost recovery is only partial in adverse conditions: the power cost adjustment mechanism "is expected to only partially mitigate the potentially adverse financial impacts of forced generating plant outages, reduced hydro and wind availability, interruptions in fuel supplies, and volatile wholesale energy prices" (FY2025 10-K). The company carries roughly $150 million of wildfire, vegetation management, and related expense in its 2026 operating cost guidance, and wildfire liability is a live tail risk for a Western utility. A stingy next rate case, or an uninsured wildfire event, would land on equity holders who already absorbed the dilution.

The valuation gives little cushion. Only the relative-multiple comparison supports the price; the asset-based, earnings-power, and growth-DCF families all read the current quote as expensive, and the free-cash-flow methods land near zero because the company is spending far more than it generates. Analyst sentiment is a clear Hold, with targets clustered near the current price. The bet is on a constructive regulator and durable data-center load, and the price has no margin for a disappointment on either.

Valuation

The valuation families split sharply. The relative-multiple comparison supports the $50.20 price (June 27, 2026), but the asset-based, earnings-power, and growth-DCF families all read it as expensive, and the free-cash-flow methods land near zero because Portland General is in a heavy capital-spending phase that consumes its cash. That pattern, only the peer comparison holding the price up, is the signature of a utility whose value rests on the regulated rate base rather than on current free cash flow.

Inverting the price into the assumption it embeds, the market is paying about 19 times company-wide operating income, which implies roughly negative 1% operating-profit growth per year for five years at a 7% cost of capital. That is an unusually low bar; the price is not asking for growth so much as for stability. Against the company's own history the implied pace is within range. The catch is that the sensitivity is steep, with each one-point move in the cost of capital shifting the implied growth by about 7.7 points, so a higher-rate environment changes the read quickly.

The honest conclusion is that the price looks undemanding on the implied-growth math but full on the absolute methods, and the gap is the regulatory and dilution risk. The dividend, recently raised 5% to about $0.55 per quarter with a 60% to 70% payout target, anchors the return at a yield near 4%. The upside above that yield depends on the next rate case funding the capital plan at an adequate allowed return. This is a yield-plus-rate-base-growth utility, priced as one, with the financing overhang as the discount.

Catalysts

The dominant catalyst is the next general rate case, which management expects to file in the second half of 2026 with a focus on balancing capital recovery against customer bill affordability. The allowed return and rate-base treatment that come out of it will set the earnings trajectory. A related near-term item is the pending Oregon order that would raise data-center rates by about 26%, designed to make large-load customers fund the capacity they drive.

Results and guidance are the second thread. The first quarter of 2026 missed sharply, with GAAP diluted EPS of $0.38 down 58% from $0.91 a year earlier and well below the $1.07 consensus, on a roughly 5% revenue decline. Industrial demand rose about 10% while residential load fell, and management reiterated full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $3.33 to $3.53 and a 5% to 7% long-term earnings and dividend growth target. The 2026 plan carries about $1.66 billion of capital expenditure and $810 million to $830 million of operating cost, including roughly $150 million of wildfire and vegetation-related expense.

The financing program is the overhang to watch. Portland General priced a $480 million common-stock offering and set up a $500 million at-the-market equity program with forward sale agreements to fund debt reduction and clean-energy investment, so further issuance is likely. On the positive side, the board raised the quarterly dividend 5% to about $0.55 per share. Analyst sentiment is a Hold, with several firms nudging targets toward the low-to-mid $50s. A Washington-area acquisition is targeted to close around mid-2027 and is expected to be accretive.

Sources:

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Electric Utility (consolidated) (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

View the full interactive POR report on boothcheck