PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY (POR): what the price assumes
boothcheck covers PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY (POR) but does not put one priced-in number on it: here the defensible answer is the evidence rather than a point estimate. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.
Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/POR
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | POR |
| Company | PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY |
| Current price | $49.60/sh |
| Composition | Retail - Residential 42% / Retail - Commercial 27% / Retail - Industrial 15% / Retail - Direct access customers 1% / Alternative revenue programs, net of amortization 1% / Other accrued revenues, net 0% / Wholesale revenues 12% / Other operating revenues 2% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Multiple paid | 23x operating income |
The price sits below what even a 5%/yr operating-profit decline would warrant; the inversion reports a bound, not a solved growth path.
Solve inputs: computed at a 6% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.
How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.86σ |
| cohort percentile (of 70 peers) | 69 |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 2.61x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 2.59x | 2 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.66x | 3 | justifies |
| Growth | 1.22x | 4 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 5.5%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=14)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $116.61 | 0.43x | yes | Reference only (OCF-based, capex excluded): OCF $1.0B |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $0.00 | — | no | Negative/zero FCF or EBITDA — equity value floored at $0 |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $60.91 | 0.81x | yes | P/E 20x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 16.8x / 20.0x / 23.2x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 13x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | $71.86 | 0.69x | yes | DPS $2.04, g=6.2% (sustainable: ROE (TTM) × retention; not the terminal-growth assumption), ke=9.3% |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $19.26 | 2.58x | yes | Stage 1: -11% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $23.62 | 2.10x | yes | BV/sh $35.06, ROE (TTM) 6.2%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $18.99 | 2.61x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $28.25 | 1.76x | yes | Rev $3.5B, growth 0% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.4x / 1.7x / 1.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Growth-Adjusted P/E | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $15.70 | 3.16x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.46B × (1−15%) / WACC 5.5% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $18.38 | 2.70x | yes | BV $35.06 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 6.2% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 4.1%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $42.31 | 1.17x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $2.27 × BVPS $35.06) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $77.81 | 0.64x | yes | EBITDA $1.08B × sector EV/EBITDA 13.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $1.90 | 26.11x | yes | EPS $2.27 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $7.22 | 6.87x | yes | BV $35.06 × (ROIC 1.1% / WACC 5.5%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $75.04 | 0.66x | yes | Revenue $3.53B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $24.54 | 2.02x | yes | EPS $2.27 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electric Utility (consolidated) | operating | enterprise | 3.6B reported-currency | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $5.2b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 12.25x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 10.41x |
| Interest coverage | 2.1x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 6.8% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
- Portland General is a capital-intensive Oregon regulated utility funding a large grid build with both debt and fresh equity. Net debt is roughly $5 billion against trailing operating income near $0.49 billion, interest coverage is about 2.0 times, and the share count is rising as the company sells stock to fund the plan.
- At $50.20 the implied bar is low, about negative 1% operating-profit growth, so the price is not demanding heroics. The support comes almost entirely from the peer-multiple comparison; the asset, earnings-power, and growth-DCF families all read the price as full.
- The first quarter missed badly, with EPS of $0.38 against a $1.07 consensus, on weather and the transition. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance of $3.33 to $3.53 and raised the dividend 5%, so the bet is on a constructive next rate case and data-center load growth funding the spend.
Bull Case
Start with how the company is funding itself, because the financing plan is the clearest read on management's confidence. Portland General carries roughly $5 billion of net debt against about $0.49 billion of trailing operating income, and rather than lever further it is raising equity: a $480 million underwritten offering plus a new at-the-market program. The 10-K confirms the intent, noting that "PGE anticipates entering into a new at-the-market offering program in the first quarter of 2026" with proceeds for "investments in renewables and non-emitting dispatchable capacity" (FY2025 10-K). Selling stock near book to fund a regulated rate base is dilutive in the short run, but it signals a management team that wants a sound balance sheet going into a capital cycle rather than one stretched on leverage. For a utility, that conservatism is a feature.
The demand setup supports the spend. Industrial demand rose about 10% in the first quarter, driven by data-center and large-load growth in the Portland area, even as residential load softened, and management guides 2026 weather-adjusted load growth of 1.5% to 2.5%. A pending Oregon order would raise data-center rates by about 26%, an attempt to make large new customers pay for the capacity they require rather than spreading the cost across households. That is the same "growth pays for growth" logic that makes load growth accretive rather than dilutive to existing ratepayers.
On valuation, the price is asking very little. The implied bar is roughly negative 1% operating-profit growth over five years, which means the market is barely pricing in growth at all; the relative-multiple frame supports the current quote. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance of $3.33 to $3.53 per share, a 5% to 7% long-term earnings and dividend growth target, and raised the quarterly dividend 5% to about $0.55 per share, with a 60% to 70% payout target. The dividend yield near 4% is a real cash return while the rate base compounds, and the next general rate case, expected in the second half of 2026, is the event that converts the capital plan into earnings.
Bear Case
The truth a holder has to accept is that this is a heavily indebted utility issuing stock at a depressed price to fund a build whose return depends on a regulator. Net debt near $5 billion sits at about ten times trailing operating income, interest coverage is only about 2.0 times, and the equity raises that fund the plan dilute existing holders. The first quarter laid the strain bare: GAAP EPS fell 58% to $0.38 against a $1.07 consensus, and revenue declined about 5%. A utility that misses by that margin, even on weather and transition timing, is one whose earnings power is thinner than the steady-dividend story implies.
The regulatory and recovery risk is the structural exposure. Portland General does not set its own prices, and its filing is explicit that cost recovery is only partial in adverse conditions: the power cost adjustment mechanism "is expected to only partially mitigate the potentially adverse financial impacts of forced generating plant outages, reduced hydro and wind availability, interruptions in fuel supplies, and volatile wholesale energy prices" (FY2025 10-K). The company carries roughly $150 million of wildfire, vegetation management, and related expense in its 2026 operating cost guidance, and wildfire liability is a live tail risk for a Western utility. A stingy next rate case, or an uninsured wildfire event, would land on equity holders who already absorbed the dilution.
The valuation gives little cushion. Only the relative-multiple comparison supports the price; the asset-based, earnings-power, and growth-DCF families all read the current quote as expensive, and the free-cash-flow methods land near zero because the company is spending far more than it generates. Analyst sentiment is a clear Hold, with targets clustered near the current price. The bet is on a constructive regulator and durable data-center load, and the price has no margin for a disappointment on either.
Valuation
The valuation families split sharply. The relative-multiple comparison supports the $50.20 price (June 27, 2026), but the asset-based, earnings-power, and growth-DCF families all read it as expensive, and the free-cash-flow methods land near zero because Portland General is in a heavy capital-spending phase that consumes its cash. That pattern, only the peer comparison holding the price up, is the signature of a utility whose value rests on the regulated rate base rather than on current free cash flow.
Inverting the price into the assumption it embeds, the market is paying about 19 times company-wide operating income, which implies roughly negative 1% operating-profit growth per year for five years at a 7% cost of capital. That is an unusually low bar; the price is not asking for growth so much as for stability. Against the company's own history the implied pace is within range. The catch is that the sensitivity is steep, with each one-point move in the cost of capital shifting the implied growth by about 7.7 points, so a higher-rate environment changes the read quickly.
The honest conclusion is that the price looks undemanding on the implied-growth math but full on the absolute methods, and the gap is the regulatory and dilution risk. The dividend, recently raised 5% to about $0.55 per quarter with a 60% to 70% payout target, anchors the return at a yield near 4%. The upside above that yield depends on the next rate case funding the capital plan at an adequate allowed return. This is a yield-plus-rate-base-growth utility, priced as one, with the financing overhang as the discount.
Catalysts
The dominant catalyst is the next general rate case, which management expects to file in the second half of 2026 with a focus on balancing capital recovery against customer bill affordability. The allowed return and rate-base treatment that come out of it will set the earnings trajectory. A related near-term item is the pending Oregon order that would raise data-center rates by about 26%, designed to make large-load customers fund the capacity they drive.
Results and guidance are the second thread. The first quarter of 2026 missed sharply, with GAAP diluted EPS of $0.38 down 58% from $0.91 a year earlier and well below the $1.07 consensus, on a roughly 5% revenue decline. Industrial demand rose about 10% while residential load fell, and management reiterated full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $3.33 to $3.53 and a 5% to 7% long-term earnings and dividend growth target. The 2026 plan carries about $1.66 billion of capital expenditure and $810 million to $830 million of operating cost, including roughly $150 million of wildfire and vegetation-related expense.
The financing program is the overhang to watch. Portland General priced a $480 million common-stock offering and set up a $500 million at-the-market equity program with forward sale agreements to fund debt reduction and clean-energy investment, so further issuance is likely. On the positive side, the board raised the quarterly dividend 5% to about $0.55 per share. Analyst sentiment is a Hold, with several firms nudging targets toward the low-to-mid $50s. A Washington-area acquisition is targeted to close around mid-2027 and is expected to be accretive.
Sources:
- https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/POR/8-k-portland-general-electric-co-or-reports-material-event-03c76836ba03.html
- https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-portland-general-electrics-q1-2026-results-miss-forecasts-93CH-4653886
- https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/portland-general-electric-declares-dividend-302753292.html
- https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20260217sf89833/portland-general-electric-company-announces-public-offering-of-480000000-of-shares-of-common-stock
- https://www.benzinga.com/quote/POR/analyst-ratings
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Electric Utility (consolidated) (reported)
- NEE (NextEra Energy Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: …iso4217:USD xbrli:shares nee:agreement nee:county xbrli:pure utr:kWh utr:MW nee:unit nee:facility utr:Btu utr:MWh utr:MMBTU utr:bbl nee:customer nee:state nee:investment utr:mi nee:variable_interest_entity utr:Rate nee:segment 0000753308 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000753308 nee:FloridaPowerLightCompanyMember 2025-01-01…
- FY2025 10-K: …of NextEra Energy Resources and NEET NEET NextEra Energy Transmission, LLC NERC North American Electric Reliability Corporation net capacity net ownership interest in pipeline(s) capacity net generating capacity net ownership interest in plant(s) capacity net generation net ownership interest in plant(s) generation…
- DUK (DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …and purchased power on their respective Consolidated Statements of Operations and Comprehensive Income. (e) Piedmont has related party transactions as a customer of its equity method investments in Pine Needle, Hardy Storage and Cardinal natural gas storage and transportation facilities. These expenses are included…
- FY2025 10-K: ElectricityUsRegulatedMember duk:CommercialMember duk:ProgressEnergyMember duk:ElectricUtilitiesandInfrastructureMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001326160 us-gaap:ElectricityUsRegulatedMember duk:CommercialMember duk:DukeEnergyProgressMember duk:ElectricUtilitiesandInfrastructureMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001326160…
- SO (SOUTHERN CO)
- FY2025 10-K: …providing electric service to retail customers, as well as wholesale customers, in the Southeast and have been aggregated into one reportable segment. The "All Other" presentation includes the Southern Company parent entity, which does not allocate operating expenses to business segments, and operating segments below…
- FY2025 10-K: …statements are a combined presentation; however, information contained herein relating to any individual Registrant is filed by such Registrant on its own behalf and each Registrant makes no representation as to information related to the other Registrants. The table below indicates the Registrants to which each note…
- AEP (AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: (Trevor I. Mihalik, Attorney-in-Fact) 350 INDEX OF FINANCIAL STATEMENT SCHEDULES Page Number The following financial statement schedules are included in this report on the pages indicated: American Electric Power Company, Inc. (Parent): Schedule I - Condensed Financial Information S- 2 Schedule I - Condensed Notes to…
- FY2025 10-K: …srt:AffiliatedEntityMember aep:SouthwesternElectricPowerCompanyMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000004904 aep:AEPTexasInc.Member srt:AffiliatedEntityMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000004904 aep:AppalachianPowerCompanyMember srt:AffiliatedEntityMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000004904…
- D (DOMINION ENERGY, INC)
- FY2025 10-K: …and restated, effective June 26, 2025 (Exhibit 3.1, Form 8-K filed June 27, 2025, File No. 1-8489). X 3.2.b Virginia Electric and Power Company Amended and Restated Bylaws, effective June 1, 2009 (Exhibit 3.1, Form 8-K filed June 3, 2009, File No. 1-2255). X 4 Dominion Energy, Inc. and Virginia Electric and Power…
- FY2025 10-K: …of its consolidated subsidiaries (including Enbridge Elephant Holdings, LLC, Enbridge Parrot Holdings, LLC and Enbridge Quail Holdings, LLC), or the entirety of Enbridge Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency EPACT Energy Policy Act of 2005 EPS Earnings per common share ERISA…
- EXC (EXELON CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …Equity 155 Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements 1. Significant Accounting Policies 156 Page No. 2. Regulatory Matters 164 3. Revenue from Contracts with Customers 184 4. Segment Information 186 5. Accounts Receivable 193 6. Property, Plant, and Equipment 195 7. Jointly Owned Electric Utility Plant 197…
- FY2025 10-K: …to Regulatory assets/liabilities under different mechanisms applicable to the different jurisdictions in which the Utility Registrants operate. (c) Primarily reflects write-offs, net of recoveries, of individual accounts receivable. 281 Table of Contents Commonwealth Edison Company and Subsidiary Companies (2) ComEd…
- XEL (XCEL ENERGY INC)
- FY2025 10-K: …Protection Agency ERCOT Electric Reliability Council of Texas FASB Financial accounting standards board FERC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission IRS Internal Revenue Service MPUC Minnesota Public Utilities Commission MPSC Michigan Public Service Commission NDPSC North Dakota Public Service Commission NERC North…
- FY2025 10-K: …are referred to as Xcel Energy. Xcel Energy's consolidated financial statements include its wholly-owned subsidiaries and VIEs for which it is the primary beneficiary. All intercompany transactions and balances are eliminated unless a different treatment is appropriate for rate regulated transactions. The equity…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.