INSULET CORPORATION (PODD): what the price requires
At today's price, INSULET CORPORATION (PODD) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~5.4 years. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-17 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/PODD
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | PODD |
| Company | INSULET CORPORATION |
| Current price | $161.79/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 6.1% |
| Operating margin today | 16.7% |
| Margin compression implied | -10.6pp |
| Must persist for | 5.4y |
| Multiple paid | 26x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 8, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 9.4% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~1.8 years.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.60σ |
| cohort percentile (of 112 peers) | 65 |
| sustained it ~5.4 years at this level | 35% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 3.47x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 3.02x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.21x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 0.80x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=18)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $301.65 | 0.54x | yes | FCF base $0.7B, growth 25% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.2%, 7yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $196.17 | 0.82x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 18.3x / 21.3x / 24.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $133.29 | 1.21x | yes | P/E 28.05x (blended: static sector reference 24x + trailing (TTM) 38x), scenarios: 22.4x / 28.1x / 33.7x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 16x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $46.63 | 3.47x | yes | BV/sh $18.56, ROE (TTM) 23.2%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $73.80 | 2.19x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $202.15 | 0.80x | yes | Rev $2.9B, growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 3.1x / 3.9x / 4.7x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $96.37 | 1.68x | yes | EPS $4.28, growth 23% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=1.67 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $27.00 | 5.99x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.25B × (1−19%) / WACC 9.2% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $67.93 | 2.38x | yes | BV $18.56 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 23.2% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $42.27 | 3.83x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $4.28 × BVPS $18.56) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $121.28 | 1.33x | yes | EBITDA $0.53B × sector EV/EBITDA 16.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $63.75 | 2.54x | yes | FCF $415.7M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $53.62 | 3.02x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.35B (FCF $0.42B − SBC $0.07B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $138.10 | 1.17x | yes | EPS $4.28 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $14.96 | 10.81x | yes | BV $18.56 × (ROIC 7.5% / WACC 9.2%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $165.28 | 0.98x | yes | Revenue $2.90B × sector P/S 4.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $144.56 | 1.12x | yes | EPS $4.28 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 22.5% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 33.8x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $46.27 | 3.50x | yes | EPS $4.28 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $948.1m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 2.62x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 2.11x |
| Interest coverage | 7.6x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 0.1% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
- At $145.71 the price embeds roughly 22.9% company-wide operating-profit growth per year for about five years. That pace is within what Insulet has recently delivered; the bet is on how long it persists, not whether it is achievable near term.
- Q1 2026 revenue rose about 33.9% to $761.7 million, with Omnipod 5 driving U.S. growth of 28.3% and international growth of 59.4% in constant currency. Type 2 diabetes adoption is the new leg of the story.
- The watch items are a thin asset and earnings-power floor under the price, a voluntary device correction that pulled gross margin down 240 basis points in the quarter, and direct competition from Tandem and Medtronic plus CGM partners that can shift the platform's economics.
Bull Case
The loudest worry on Insulet is that the price already assumes years of fast growth, and that a single-product company is one competitive misstep away from a derating. So start there and ask whether the data backs the fear or undercuts it. The first quarter of 2026 says the growth is, for now, accelerating rather than fading: revenue rose about 33.9% to $761.7 million, ahead of the company's own 25% to 27% constant-currency guide, with operating income of $122.1 million. The implied bet in the price, roughly 22.9% operating-profit growth per year, sits below what the business just delivered. The stretch is duration, not the current rate.
The engine is Omnipod 5, and it is widening rather than maturing. U.S. Omnipod revenue grew 28.3% and international grew 59.4% in constant currency, with management pointing to a surge in customer starts among type 2 diabetes patients, a population far larger than the type 1 base the pod was built for. The 10-K frames the next leg as broadening the platform: the company describes pursuing "appropriate modifications to our Omnipod technology to address the needs and parameters required for drug-delivery opportunities" (FY2025 10-K), and in 2026 it is expanding CGM compatibility across Dexcom and Abbott sensors and tightening the control algorithm. Each integration makes the pod the hub of more patients' diabetes management.
The competitive position is more durable than the single-product framing suggests. Insulet's pod is tubeless and disposable, a different form factor from the tubed pumps that Tandem and Medtronic sell, and its CGM-agnostic strategy turns potential rivals like Dexcom and Abbott into distribution partners. The recurring nature of pod consumption gives the revenue a subscription-like cadence rather than a one-time hardware sale. Against that, the relative-multiple and forward-growth families both support the current price, which means the market is paying for a real, demonstrated growth franchise rather than a story.
Bear Case
Look first at the structure of the bet, not the product. At $145.71 (June 27, 2026) the equity is being asked to grow operating profit roughly 22.9% a year for about five years, and only about 37% of comparable fast-growers have sustained that pace for five years at this level. That is the base-rate problem: the price is in the upper half of the peer multiple range, and the asset-based and earnings-power valuation families both read it as expensive. There is little balance-sheet or current-earnings cushion beneath the quote. Net debt is modest at roughly $0.95 billion against trailing operating income of about $0.51 billion, so leverage is not the fragility; the fragility is that the value is almost entirely forward, and a single year of decelerating starts would compress the multiple hard.
The single-product concentration is the second exposure. Essentially all revenue is Omnipod, so a manufacturing or quality stumble lands directly on the whole company. That risk is not hypothetical: the first quarter carried a voluntary Omnipod 5 medical device correction that added an estimated $11.7 million in warranty cost and helped pull gross margin down 240 basis points to 69.5%. The 10-K is candid that scaling carries operational risk, warning of "higher defect rates, increased waste, product shortage, unanticipated or increased costs, lost revenues, and damage to our reputation" if it fails to scale manufacturing to meet demand (FY2025 10-K). For a company priced on flawless execution, even a contained recall is a reminder of the tail.
The competitive and dependency map is the third. Tandem and Medtronic are pushing their own automated insulin delivery systems, and Insulet's CGM-agnostic strategy is also a CGM dependency: the pod's value proposition leans on Dexcom and Abbott sensors that those companies control and price. The drug-delivery and type 2 expansion that anchor the long runway are still early, with regulatory and partnership steps the filing itself flags as uncertain. If type 2 adoption proves more price-sensitive or slower than the recent quarter implies, the duration assumption baked into the price is the first thing to break.
Valuation
The valuation families split cleanly. Relative-multiple and forward-growth methods reach or exceed the $145.71 price, while asset-based and earnings-power methods land well below it. That pattern is typical of a high-growth medical-device name: the static frames cannot price a franchise that is still scaling, so the support sits in the methods that look forward. A reasonable-growth re-pricing puts a base value near $140 with a band from roughly $96 to $163, so the current price sits close to the base of that range.
Inverting the price into the assumption it embeds, the market is paying about 24 times company-wide operating income, which implies roughly 22.9% operating-profit growth per year for about five years at a 9.4% cost of capital. The sensitivity is steep: each one-point change in the cost of capital moves the implied growth by about 7.5 points, so the read is rate-dependent. Against the company's own history the near-term pace is within range, and the unusual part is duration. Against the base rate of fast-growers, only about 37% sustained this growth for five years, which is the honest framing of the risk.
The conclusion is that the price is reasonable if Omnipod 5's type 2 and international momentum holds, and full if it does not. There is no dividend to anchor a floor, and the asset and earnings-power methods sit below the quote, so the downside support is thin. This is a growth-durability bet, priced as one.
Catalysts
The near-term driver is the cadence of quarterly Omnipod 5 adoption. First-quarter 2026 revenue rose about 33.9% to $761.7 million, beating the company's 25% to 27% constant-currency guide, with U.S. Omnipod up 28.3% and international up 59.4% in constant currency. For the second quarter the company guided Omnipod revenue growth of 21% to 23% and total revenue growth of 20% to 22%, and it continues to expect adjusted EPS to rise more than 25% for the full year. Each print is a check on whether the type 2 diabetes ramp is durable.
Product cadence is the second catalyst. In 2026 Insulet is rolling out algorithm enhancements to Omnipod 5, including a lower 100 mg/dL target glucose option, and broadening CGM compatibility across Dexcom G6 and G7 and Abbott's FreeStyle Libre 2 Plus. Wider sensor support and a sharper control algorithm both expand the addressable base and deepen the platform lock-in. The longer-dated optionality is the drug-delivery work the 10-K describes, which is early and partnership-dependent.
The watch items are the voluntary Omnipod 5 medical device correction that added about $11.7 million of warranty cost in the quarter and weighed on gross margin, and the competitive response from Tandem and Medtronic. Analyst sentiment is constructive, with a Buy-leaning consensus, though targets span a wide range and at least one recent move was a downgrade to Hold on valuation after the strong run. Insulet pays no dividend, so total return rests entirely on growth execution.
Sources:
- https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/PODD/8-k-insulet-corp-reports-material-event-ffb2065e126d.html
- https://www.indexbox.io/blog/insulet-q1-2026-results-strong-revenue-growth-despite-market-concerns/
- https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Insulet+shares+rise+as+investors+focus+on+Omnipod+5+software+upgrade+and+expanded+CGM+compatibility
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/podd/forecast/
- https://www.fool.com/coverage/better-buy/2026/06/04/dexcom-vs-insulet-which-diabetes-stock-is-a-better-buy-in-2026/
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Omnipod insulin delivery (single operating segment) (reported)
- DXCM (DEXCOM, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- TNDM (Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- TMDX (TransMedics Group, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- PEN (Penumbra, Inc)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- IRTC (iRhythm Holdings, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ATRC (AtriCure, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- MMSI (MERIT MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- TFX (TELEFLEX INCORPORATED)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.