UiPath, Inc. (PATH): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $18.19, UiPath, Inc. (PATH) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~25.0 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-08-07.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Exported: 2026-08-31 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/PATH

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

Solve inputs: computed at a 13.5% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling.

How unusual the bet is: n/a

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=16)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

• UiPath earned its first full-year operating profit in the year ended January 31, 2026, then reported its first profitable fiscal first quarter in company history for the three months ended April 30, 2026.
• That profit is thin and lumpy: roughly 101 million dollars of operating income over the year through April 30, 2026, of which about 80 million landed in the single November-to-January quarter when upfront license revenue is recognized.
• Contracted recurring revenue grew 12 percent year over year to 1.901 billion dollars as of April 30, 2026, and management guided full-year fiscal 2027 revenue to a range of 1.776 to 1.781 billion, a slower pace than the 17 percent the first quarter delivered.

Bull Case

The valuation approaches split on UiPath in a way that is worth reading carefully, because the disagreement is not noise. Peer-multiple approaches and forward cash-flow approaches both land above today's price. The approaches built on book value and on current earnings power land well under it: the price sits roughly 76 percent above where the asset-value family of methods reaches, and roughly 89 percent above the earnings-power family. For a company that crossed from loss into profit less than eighteen months ago, that split is close to mechanical. Methods that capitalize a trailing earnings stream have almost no stream to work with; methods that price recurring revenue see a base that has been compounding the whole time.

The recurring base is the substance of the bull argument. Annualized recurring revenue reached 1.901 billion dollars as of April 30, 2026, against reported revenue of 1.67 billion over the preceding twelve months, and existing customers spent 109 percent of what they spent a year earlier. The 10-K explains why management watches this line rather than quarterly revenue: "ARR is the key performance metric we use in managing our business because it illustrates our ability to acquire new subscription customers and to maintain and expand our relationships with existing subscription customers." Recurring revenue does not lump into a fiscal fourth quarter the way license revenue does.

The mix inside that base has been shifting toward the durable half. Subscription services revenue rose to 954.5 million dollars in the year ended January 31, 2026 from 801.9 million a year earlier, while the licenses line barely moved, from 587.2 million to 606.4 million. Growth is coming almost entirely from the maintenance, support and hosted piece, which is the piece that renews. Roughly 82 cents of every revenue dollar survives the cost of delivering the product, which is what lets incremental subscription dollars fall through.

The operating leverage that follows from that mix showed up quickly. In the quarter ended April 30, 2025 the company lost 16.4 million dollars at the operating line. In the same quarter a year later it earned 28.0 million on revenue up 17 percent. Nothing exotic happened in between. Revenue grew, delivery costs grew more slowly, and the gap turned positive.

Set against its comparison group, that is unusual company. Of the eight software businesses in its cohort, six lost money at the operating line over their own trailing year, and only DT converted revenue into operating profit at a higher rate than UiPath managed. This is a cohort where profitability is still the exception, and UiPath reached it while its recurring base kept growing.

The balance sheet gives management room to keep going without asking anyone for money. There are no funded borrowings on it at all, holdings in equivalents and marketable securities came to 1.42 billion dollars as of April 30, 2026, and operations produced 371.2 million during the year ended January 31, 2026. The company has been using that position to shrink itself: repurchases ran 329.1 million dollars in fiscal 2026 and a further 243.8 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 alone, and the diluted share count fell from 559.9 million in fiscal 2025 to 527.8 million in the most recent quarter.

Where the company is aiming next is stated plainly in its own filing: "Our platform empowers customers to combine automation, AI agents, and people, delivering end-to-end process orchestration that drives innovation." The bet is that when enterprises deploy AI agents at scale, something has to schedule, govern and audit them, and that the vendor already wired into those workflows is positioned to be that something.

Bear Case

Peak earnings and sustainable earnings are two different numbers here, and the gap is unusually wide. Over the twelve months through April 30, 2026 UiPath earned about 101 million dollars of operating income. About 80 million of it came from the three months ended January 31, 2026. That is not a coincidence of timing. The 10-K notes that license revenue "is recognized at the point in time when the customer is able to use and benefit from our software, which is generally upon delivery to the customer or upon the commencement of the renewal term", and the license renewal cycle concentrates in the fiscal fourth quarter. Annualize the other three quarters and the profit picture looks materially thinner.

The bottom line is even less of a run rate. Reported net income over the same twelve months was about 327 million dollars, more than three times the operating profit. The reason sits in one quarter: in the three months ended October 31, 2025, an income tax benefit of 174.2 million dollars turned 13.1 million of operating profit into 198.8 million of net income. That was a deferred tax accounting event tied to the company's accumulated losses, not cash the business earned. Any earnings-per-share figure computed from that trailing window carries it.

Growth is decelerating while the price is not. Recurring revenue grew 12 percent year over year in the April 2026 quarter while reported revenue grew 17 percent, which is the order those two lines take when a business is converting backlog faster than it is signing new work. Net new recurring revenue in the quarter was 49 million dollars. Management then guided second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue to 395 to 400 million, below the 418 million just delivered, and full-year revenue to 1.776 to 1.781 billion against 1.611 billion in fiscal 2026.

Then there is what the reported profit does not charge for. Stock compensation ran 290.7 million dollars during the year ended January 31, 2026, while operations produced 371.2 million over the same period. The buyback is not primarily a return of capital in that context; a large share of it is absorbing the shares the compensation plan creates, which is why the count has fallen slowly despite hundreds of millions of dollars deployed.

The competitive setup is the structural worry, and the company describes it without softening. Its risk factors warn that "as our market becomes increasingly driven by cloud-based solutions, native cloud providers may enter this market and provide competitive offerings at lower prices. Additionally, open source alternatives for automation that are offered at no cost may impact our ability to sell our products", and that many competitors have "greater name recognition, longer operating histories, more established customer relationships, larger marketing budgets, and greater resources". Orchestrating AI agents is precisely the layer every large platform vendor is now claiming, and a customer already paying one of them may not pay separately for it.

Governance offers minority holders little leverage if that goes wrong. The 10-K discloses that the founder and chief executive, "collectively with his controlled entities, holds all our outstanding shares of Class B common stock, and beneficially owned shares representing approximately 84% voting power of our outstanding capital stock as of January 31, 2026". In May the company disclosed that an entity he controls adopted a trading plan on April 15, 2026 to sell up to 2,975,000 Class A shares through October 14, 2026. The plan is routine and pre-cleared. It is still the person with 84 percent of the votes reducing his economic stake.

Put the price against that. Today's price values the enterprise at about 60 times the operating income of the twelve months through April 2026, and closing that gap requires growth to run at the ceiling a self-funding business can sustain for roughly 21 years. Only about 15 percent of comparable fast growers have held such a pace even a decade. Against its own peer group the multiple sits at the very top of the distribution rather than in the middle of it. The rate the price needs is one UiPath has recently shown. The duration is a different order of claim, and the two quarters of guidance already on the table point the other way.

Valuation

Begin with the arithmetic the price implies rather than the price itself. Today's quote values the enterprise at roughly 60 times the operating income of the twelve months ended April 30, 2026, and the pace that would make that number ordinary is growth running at the ceiling a business can fund from its own profits, held for roughly 21 years. The rate is not the stretch. UiPath has grown at that speed. The stretch is the calendar.

History is unkind to claims of that length. Of companies that have grown at this pace, only about 15 percent sustained it as long as a decade, and against its own comparison group UiPath's multiple sits at the very top of the distribution rather than somewhere in the middle. This is the demanding end of what the market prices into software.

The denominator deserves as much attention as the multiple. Operating income over that twelve-month window was about 101 million dollars, and roughly 80 million of it was earned in the three months ended January 31, 2026, when upfront license revenue is recognized. Licenses billed 606.4 million dollars in fiscal 2026 against 587.2 million the year before, so the lumpy part of the business is close to flat; the growing part is subscription services, at 954.5 million against 801.9 million. A multiple computed on a base that concentrates in one quarter of the year is a fragile thing to lean on, in either direction.

The methods used to triangulate the business divide along a predictable line. Peer-multiple approaches and forward cash-flow approaches both land above the current quote. Book value and current earnings power land under it, the price standing about 89 percent above the earnings-power family of methods and about 76 percent above the asset-value family. That pattern is what a recently-turned-profitable company looks like through backward-looking lenses: there is not yet enough accumulated earnings history for those approaches to capitalize, so they read the price as a premium by construction. The forward approaches see the recurring base and reach a different answer. Neither is a verdict; the distance between them is the size of the question.

Cohort comparison sharpens rather than settles it. Six of the eight software companies in UiPath's comparison group lost money at the operating line over their own trailing year, and DT is the only one converting revenue into operating profit at a better rate. So UiPath is being priced at the top of a group most of whose members are not yet profitable at all, which means the premium is not being paid for profitability. It is being paid for the recurring base and what management says that base becomes.

Downside is bounded by an unusually clean balance sheet. There are no funded borrowings, holdings in equivalents and marketable securities stood at 1.42 billion dollars as of April 30, 2026, and operations generated 371.2 million during fiscal 2026. Against a market value of a little over seven billion, that liquidity is close to a fifth of the whole. It removes the financing risk that usually accompanies a young profit record, and it changes nothing about whether the growth arrives.

What a buyer at 13.82 dollars a share is underwriting, then, is duration in a market that is being contested right now. The recurring base is real and the profit is real. Whether either compounds for two decades is the entire question, and the fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of 1.776 to 1.781 billion is the first installment of the answer.

Catalysts

UiPath reported first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on May 28, 2026: revenue of 418 million dollars, up 17 percent year over year, recurring revenue of 1.901 billion as of April 30, 2026, up 12 percent, and GAAP operating income of 28 million. The company described it as the first profitable fiscal first quarter in its history. Net new recurring revenue for the quarter was 49 million and existing customers renewed at 109 percent of prior spending.

Guidance sets the next two checkpoints. For the second quarter ending July 31, 2026, management expects revenue of 395 to 400 million dollars and recurring revenue of 1.929 to 1.934 billion. For the full year ending January 31, 2027, it expects revenue of 1.776 to 1.781 billion and recurring revenue of 2.058 to 2.063 billion. The second-quarter number is the more informative of the two, because it is guided below the quarter just reported.

The product news in the same release all points at the same wager. UiPath announced a platform-wide integration for coding agents, a portfolio of industry-specific agentic solutions spanning purchase-to-pay, merchandising, inventory management and loan origination, an expanded collaboration with Deloitte on its Ascend delivery platform, a technology partnership with Databricks, availability of its document-processing product on Google Cloud Marketplace with Gemini as the default third-party model, and listings on Salesforce AgentExchange. Separately, the company disclosed on May 28, 2026 that an entity controlled by founder and chief executive Daniel Dines adopted a plan on April 15, 2026 to sell up to 2,975,000 Class A shares through October 14, 2026.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

UiPath (consolidated) (reported)

• FRSH (Freshworks Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and judgments that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements, and the reported amounts of revenue, costs and expenses and related disclosures during the applicable periods. We base our estimates, assumptions, and…
• FY2025 10-K: …to receive such benefits and the amount can be reasonably estimated. Related costs are included in restructuring charges in the consolidated statements of operations. The remaining restructuring liability is included in accrued liabilities in the consolidated balance sheet. Recent Accounting Pronouncements Accounting…
• ESTC (Elastic N.V.)
• FY2025 10-K: …apply the power of search to their data and solve business problems. The Company offers three software solutions built into its platform: Elasticsearch, Elastic Observability, and Elastic Security. The Company's platform and its solutions are designed to run across hybrid clouds, public or private clouds, and…
• FY2025 10-K: …a retrospective basis. The Company's adoption of this ASU did not have a material impact on its consolidated financial statements. New Accounting Pronouncements Not Yet Adopted Income Taxes: In December 2023, the FASB issued ASU No. 2023-09, Income Taxes (Topic 740): Improvements to Income Tax Disclosures, requiring…
• GTLB (GITLAB INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: , allocation of revenue to the license element in the Company's self-managed subscriptions, estimating the amortization period for capitalized costs to obtain a contract, allowance for doubtful accounts, fair value of contingent consideration, taxation of intangible property in company formation, merger, or…
• FY2025 10-K: SecOps platform delivered as a single application which is offered on both self-managed and SaaS models. The Company operates its business as one operating and reportable segment as the Company's chief operating decision maker ("CODM"), the Company's CEO, reviews financial information on a consolidated basis for…
• DT (Dynatrace, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …false 2025 FY 0001773383 P3Y 12 P3Y P2Y P3Y 358 iso4217:USD xbrli:shares iso4217:USD xbrli:shares dt:segment dt:channelPartner dt:unit xbrli:pure dt:reporting_unit 0001773383 2024-04-01 2025-03-31 0001773383 2024-09-30 0001773383 2025-05-20 0001773383 2025-03-31 0001773383 2024-03-31 0001773383…
• FY2025 10-K: …the 401(k) Plan and may, at its discretion, make matching contributions to the 401(k) Plan. In addition, the Company offers defined contribution plans to employees in certain countries outside the U.S and as of January 2024, a non-qualified deferred compensation plan to certain eligible employees. For the years ended…
• MDB (MONGODB, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and other segment items. The guidance requires companies to provide in interim periods all disclosures about a reportable segment's profit or loss and assets that are currently required annually. The Company adopted ASU 2023-07 for its annual financial statements ending January 31, 2025, on a retrospective basis. The…
• FY2025 10-K: …as the "consolidated financial statements"). We also have audited the Company's internal control over financial reporting as of January 31, 2025, based on criteria established in Internal Control - Integrated Framework (2013) issued by the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission (COSO). In…
• BRZE (Braze, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …item or product or create personalized AI recommendations from a specific catalog which can then be inserted into messages. • Catalogs: Customers can store relational or tabular data with Braze that can be used for segmentation, event triggering, and message personalization. Data stored in Braze Catalogs can be…
• FY2025 10-K: …to each other across a set of pre-selected key performance indicators. Additionally, customers can use this tool to understand the factors that determine which consumers belong to a particular segment. • BrazeAI Predictive Suite: BrazeAI Predictive Suite allows customers to identify groups of consumers that are of…
• KVYO (Klaviyo, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …to unify, enrich, transform data, run more advanced reporting and predictive analysis, and sync data into and out of Klaviyo at scale. Our KDP is built for businesses of all sizes and gives customers a unified, real-time view of consumers across their entire lifecycles. Advanced KDP: Building on top of the features…
• FY2025 10-K: …Delaware on September 14, 2012. The Company has several wholly-owned subsidiaries in the United States and international jurisdictions. 2. Summary of Significant Accounting Policies Basis of Presentation The accompanying consolidated financial statements have been prepared in conformity with accounting principles…
• SEMR (Semrush Holdings, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …the consolidated balance sheet as of December 31, 2025. The Company assigned a value of $ 1,062 to the acquired identifiable intangible assets consisting of content, customer relationships, and developed technology, which are amortized over the assets' useful lives using a straight-line amortization method. The…
• FY2025 10-K: …judgments, often as the result of the need to make estimates about the effect of matters that are inherently uncertain. Basis of Presentation The accompanying consolidated financial statements have been prepared in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America ("GAAP"). Any…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.