PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS, INC. (PARR): what the price assumes

boothcheck covers PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS, INC. (PARR) but does not put one priced-in number on it: here the defensible answer is the evidence rather than a point estimate. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/PARR

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 9: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

The price sits below what even a 5%/yr operating-profit decline would warrant; the inversion reports a bound, not a solved growth path.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.1% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by asset-based and relative-multiple value, while growth-DCF lands below the price. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Asset, Relative Families that call it expensive: Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 6.9%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=15)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• Par Pacific is a refiner whose value lives in physical assets and crack-spread cash flow, not in growth: the price sits at roughly 7 times company-wide operating income, low enough that every valuation method supports it.
• The cyclical catch is that today's earnings ride refining margins that history says revert, the Hawaii index fell 45% in 2024 "The Hawaii Index declined $5.85 per barrel, or 45%", so the same operating leverage that lifts profit in a strong year cuts it in a weak one.
• The next signals are crack-spread direction and the new Hawaii renewable-fuels facility, which began commercial operations in April 2026 and is ramping toward sustainable aviation fuel.

Bull Case

What a cash-flow model misses about Par Pacific is that the business is not a stream of smooth earnings to discount, it is a set of physical refineries and retail sites whose value is the throughput they push and the margin they capture, both of which swing with the market. Standard valuation models try to project a growth rate; for a refiner the question is closer to what these assets earn across a cycle and what they cost to replace. On that reading the price looks undemanding. The market pays roughly 7 times company-wide operating income, a multiple that sits below what even a 5%-a-year decline in operating profit would justify. The methods are not asking the business to grow; they are asking it not to fall apart, and the assets themselves answer that.

The operating reality behind the cheapness is leverage to refining margins, and that leverage works in both directions. In the first quarter of 2026 the refining segment swung from a $24.7 million loss a year earlier to a $56.3 million profit, with total throughput rising to 184.3 thousand barrels a day and adjusted gross margin per barrel widening to $11.16. Hawaii throughput set a record at 89.8 thousand barrels a day. When the spreads cooperate, a mid-cap refiner with this asset base throws off cash quickly, and the company has been turning that cash into a smaller share count: shares outstanding have fallen at about 4% a year, with $28.0 million of stock repurchased in the first quarter alone at an average price of $37.96.

The growth that the asset-value frame does not capture is the optionality on top. The Hawaii renewable fuels facility began commercial operations in April 2026, reaching on-specification renewable diesel late that month and beginning the transition toward sustainable aviation fuel. That is a new product line bolted onto an existing refinery footprint, using throughput and logistics the company already owns. The retail business is the quiet ballast underneath: retail adjusted gross margin was about $164.7 million in 2024, up from $155.3 million "our retail Adjusted Gross Margin was approximately $164.7 million, an increase of $9.4 million compared to $155.3 million", a steadier margin pool that softens the refining swings. The bull case is that the market is pricing the assets cheaply because it distrusts the current margin, while the through-cycle earnings power, the buyback, and the renewable option are all real and unpriced.

Bear Case

The valuation methods all agree the price is supported, and that agreement is exactly where the bear should be suspicious. Every family of approach, asset value, earnings power, peer multiples, and even the cash-flow models, lands at or above today's quote. But the methods are fed by trailing results, and trailing results for a refiner are a snapshot of where the cycle happens to sit. The more conservative read is that the earnings powering those models are near a peak, not a midpoint. Refining margins have surged on supply disruptions, and the same disclosures that show this year's strength also show how fast it reverses: the Hawaii Index fell $5.85 a barrel, a 45% drop, in 2024, and the Washington refinery's adjusted gross margin per barrel collapsed from $9.41 to $3.25 in a single year "Adjusted Gross Margin for the Washington refinery decreased by $6.16 per barrel from $9.41 per barrel during the year ended December 31, 2023, to $3.25 per barrel during the year ended December 31, 2024". A 7x multiple on peak earnings is not the bargain it looks like; it is an average multiple on an unsustainable number.

The macro variable with the most leverage on the thesis is the crack spread, and it sits entirely outside the company's control. The current strength rests on refinery cutbacks and geopolitical supply shocks; when those normalize, the operating leverage that delivered the first-quarter swing runs in reverse, turning a profit back toward the loss it came from. The company's geographic concentration sharpens this. Hawaii is its single largest exposure, and Hawaii's economics tie to jet-fuel demand, tourism, and the cost of importing crude to an island, none of which the company sets.

The balance sheet is the part that keeps a cyclical downturn from becoming an existential one, but it is not pristine. Par Pacific carries net debt of about $789 million, leverage near 1.3 times trailing operating income, and interest coverage around 8 times. That is manageable while margins are wide. It tightens fast if a margin trough arrives, because the operating income in those coverage and leverage ratios is the same cyclical figure that can halve. The conservative methods are honest here: a refiner trading on peak margins should be valued on what it earns through the cycle, and the disagreement is not between bull and bear models, it is between the trailing year and the average year.

Valuation

The price asks very little of the business, which is the first thing to understand about Par Pacific. Inverting today's quote, the market pays about 7 times company-wide operating income, a multiple so low that the price sits below what even a 5%-a-year decline in operating profit would warrant. This is a bound rather than a solved forecast: the price is not betting on growth, it is betting against meaningful deterioration. Against the company's own recent results, that near-term pace is well within what it has delivered; the stretch, such as it is, lives in how long the current margins persist, not in the rate.

Unusually for the reports in this product, every family of valuation method supports the price rather than sitting below it. The peer-multiple lens, anchored on a sector P/E near 10x and EV/EBITDA near 6x, lands above the quote. The cash-flow methods, even with modestly negative recent revenue growth fed in, reach the price comfortably. The asset and earnings-power lenses agree. When all four families clear the price, the report's own read is that this is a value or asset-supported name, not a growth bet. The honest caution is not that the methods are too low; it is that they are fed by a trailing year that a cyclical business cannot be assumed to repeat.

Solvency is where the cyclicality earns its respect. Net debt of roughly $789 million against trailing operating income puts leverage near 1.3 times, with interest coverage around 8 times, and the company is not burning cash. Those ratios are comfortable at today's margins and would tighten in a margin trough, because the denominator is itself cyclical. The share count working steadily lower, down about 4% a year, is direct evidence of capital return rather than dilution, and it is the management decision the value case rests on: buying back stock while the market discounts the assets. The street's mean target sits well above the quote, which credits a continuation of strong refining margins that this asset-and-through-cycle frame deliberately does not assume; the gap between the two is the cycle, not a contradiction.

Catalysts

The first quarter of 2026, reported in early May, was a clean margin-recovery print. Par Pacific posted net income of $54.5 million, or $1.10 in diluted earnings per share, with adjusted EBITDA of $91.5 million. The refining segment did the work, swinging from a $24.7 million operating loss a year earlier to a $56.3 million profit as throughput climbed to 184.3 thousand barrels a day and per-barrel adjusted gross margin reached $11.16. Hawaii throughput hit a record 89.8 thousand barrels a day. The quarter also carried a smaller adjusted figure than the headline, $38.5 million of adjusted net income, the difference being items the company strips out of its core measure.

The structural development is the Hawaii renewable fuels facility, which began commercial operations in April 2026. The plant reached on-specification renewable diesel late in the month and started transitioning toward sustainable aviation fuel mode. It is built onto the existing Hawaii refining footprint, so it adds a product line without a greenfield build, and it is the clearest growth lever the company has outside the refining cycle.

Sentiment is constructive but split on durability. The covering analysts lean toward buy ratings with a mean price target meaningfully above the current quote, in the high-$60s to low-$70s range, while skeptics argue the current crack spreads are a cyclical peak that mean-reverts and creates downside. The two camps are debating the same fact: refining margins are wide right now. The next several quarters of crack-spread direction, and the renewable facility's ramp, will decide which camp was reading the cycle correctly.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Refining (reported)

• VLO (VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX)
• FY2025 10-K: …relating to transportation fuels regulated by low-carbon fuels regulations, policies, and standards. OUR OPERATIONS Our operations are managed through the following reportable segments: • our Refining segment, which includes the operations of our petroleum refineries, the associated activities to market our refined…
• FY2025 10-K: …separately. Operating performance is measured based on the operating income (loss) generated by the segment, which includes revenues and expenses that are directly attributable to the management of the respective segment. Intersegment sales are generally derived from transactions made at prevailing market rates. The…
• MPC (MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: Table of Contents Item 2. Properties We believe that our properties and facilities are adequate for our operations and that our facilities are adequately maintained. See the following sections for details of our assets by segment. REFINING & MARKETING The table below sets forth the location and crude oil refining…
• FY2025 10-K: …fundamentals, as well as the U.S. refining industry's current structural advantages over the rest of the world, will support a constructive environment for U.S. refiners. Our Midstream segment contributed strong results and continued growth in 2025, benefitting from the expansion of its Permian to Gulf Coast natural…
• PSX (Phillips 66)
• FY2025 10-K: …volatility in the price and availability of raw materials, supply chain interruptions, material adverse changes in customer relationships including any failure of a customer to perform its obligations under agreements with us, and risks associated with worldwide or regional economic conditions. Competition Risks…
• FY2025 10-K: …to focus on Refining performance, targeting an annual clean product yield of greater than 86%, crude oil capacity utilization rates higher than industry average and continuing to improve our competitive cost structure. During 2025, our worldwide refining crude oil capacity average utilization rate was 94% for 2025,…
• PBF (PBF ENERGY INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …refiners that import products into the United States and with producers and marketers in other industries supplying alternative forms of energy and fuels to satisfy the requirements of industrial, commercial and individual consumers. Some of our competitors have expanded the capacity of their refineries and…
• FY2025 10-K: …of our competitors have larger and more complex refineries, and may be able to realize lower per-barrel costs or higher margins per barrel of throughput. Several of our principal competitors are integrated national or international oil companies that are larger and have substantially greater resources than we do and…
• DINO (HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …any of the crude oil feedstocks used at our refineries. Though we license our brand, as of December 31, 2025, we do not currently own or operate retail outlets and therefore are dependent upon others for outlets for our refined products. Certain of our competitors, however, obtain a portion of their feedstocks from…
• FY2025 10-K: …refineries and Asphalt. The Renewables segment includes the operations of the Artesia, Cheyenne and Sinclair RDUs and the Artesia PTU. The Marketing segment includes branded fuel sales. The Lubricants & Specialties segment includes the operations of our Petro-Canada Lubricants, Red Giant Oil and Sonneborn businesses…

Logistics (reported)

• DKL (DKL)
• FY2025 10-K: …not have a material adverse effect on our business or financial condition, our competitive position and the effects of competition, the projected growth of the industry in which we operate, and the benefits and synergies to be obtained from our completed and any future acquisitions, statements of management's goals…
• FY2025 10-K: …by our H2O and Gravity acquisitions, partially offset by a decrease due to change in classification of certain of our commercial agreements with Delek, which meet the criteria to be classified as sales-type leases. As such, certain throughput and storage fees that were previously recorded as revenue are now recorded…
• HESM (HESM)
• FY2025 10-K: …alternative means of transport through additional investment or commercial agreements. We have also obtained permits from railroad companies to cross over or under lands or rights-of-way, many of which are also revocable at the grantor's election. We work to maintain satisfactory permits and/or title to all our…
• FY2025 10-K: …Export Logistics Operations LP (collectively, the "Joint Interest Assets") and a 100 % interest in Hess Mentor Storage Holdings LLC. HIP owned the remaining 80 % economic interest in the Joint Interest Assets, a 100 % interest in certain other businesses, including Hess' Bakken water services business ("Hess Water…
• MPLX (MPLX LP)
• FY2025 10-K: …to producing natural gas wells, or to facilities that produce natural gas as a byproduct of refining crude oil. Due to the shift in the source of natural gas production, midstream providers with a significant presence in the shale plays will likely have a competitive advantage. Well-positioned operations allow access…
• FY2025 10-K: …the Crude Oil and Products Logistics segment primarily by charging tariffs for gathering and transporting crude oil, refined products, other hydrocarbon-based products and renewables through our pipelines and at our barge docks delivering to domestic and international destinations, and fees for storing crude oil,…
• PAA (PLAINS ALL AMERICAN PIPELINE LP)
• FY2025 10-K: …transported, thereby overcoming the increased transportation cost. We also face competition with respect to our merchant activities and facilities services. Our competitors include other crude oil and NGL pipeline and terminalling companies, other NGL processing and fractionation companies, major integrated oil…
• FY2025 10-K: …users. Although new pipeline projects represent a source of competition for our business, existing third-party owned pipelines with excess capacity in the vicinity of our operations also expose us to significant competition based on the relatively low operating cost associated with moving an incremental barrel of…
• GEL (GENESIS ENERGY LP)
• FY2025 10-K: …crude oil and refined products on behalf of producers, refiners and other customers. This segment includes crude oil and refined products pipelines, terminals, rail unloading facilities, and refinery processing locations operating primarily within the U.S. Gulf Coast market. In addition, we utilize our trucking fleet…
• FY2025 10-K: …affiliates, who vary widely in size, financial resources and experience. Some of these competitors have capital resources many times greater than ours and control substantially greater supplies of crude oil, natural gas and refined products. Even if reserves exist or refined products are produced in the areas…
• PAGP (PLAINS GP HOLDINGS LP)
• FY2025 10-K: (1) Includes both operating and finance leases as defined by FASB guidance. Leases are primarily for (i) office space, (ii) land, (iii) vehicles, (iv) storage tanks and (v) tractor trailers. See Note 14 for additional information. (2) Primarily includes storage, transportation and pipeline throughput agreements.…
• FY2025 10-K: …that the current duration of our contracts and structure of our integrated business model, combined with expected crude oil production growth in the Permian Basin and other areas, should partially mitigate these risks. In addition, pipelines may also face competition from other forms of transportation, such as truck,…

Retail (reported)

• DINO (HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …any of the crude oil feedstocks used at our refineries. Though we license our brand, as of December 31, 2025, we do not currently own or operate retail outlets and therefore are dependent upon others for outlets for our refined products. Certain of our competitors, however, obtain a portion of their feedstocks from…
• FY2025 10-K: …GAAP are provided under "Reconciliations to Amounts Reported Under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles" in Item 7 of Part II of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. (2) Gross margin represents total Renewables segment Sales and other revenues less Cost of materials and other , Lower of cost or market inventory…
• CVI (CVR ENERGY, INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …include adjustments to reflect the August 2025 SRE Decisions in the amount of $488 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, as well as the revaluation of the RVO. Refer to Part II, Item 8, Note 14 ("Commitments and Contingencies") of this Report for further discussion. (2) The Petroleum Segment's basis for…
• FY2025 10-K: Member 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001376139 cvi:CustomerTwoMember us-gaap:CustomerConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember cvi:RenewablesSegmentMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001376139 cvi:CustomerTwoMember us-gaap:CustomerConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember cvi:RenewablesSegmentMember…
• DK (DELEK US HOLDINGS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …December 31, 2023, includes a $ 23.1 million right-of-use asset impairment charge for Corporate, Other and Eliminations and a $ 14.8 million goodwill impairment charge for the Logistics segment. Refer to Note 17 - Goodwill and Intangible Assets and Note 20 - Restructuring and Other Charges for further information. 5.…
• FY2025 10-K: …of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting period. Reclassifications Certain prior period amounts have been reclassified in order to conform to the current period presentation. Segment Reporting Delek is an…
• PBF (PBF ENERGY INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …where we acquire crude oil and other raw materials or sell our refined products may affect our business in unpredictable ways, including forcing us to increase security measures and causing disruptions of supplies and distribution markets. We may also be subject to United States trade and economic sanctions laws,…
• FY2025 10-K: TEMENTS Cash and Cash Equivalents The Company considers all highly liquid investments with original maturities of three months or less to be cash equivalents. The carrying amount of the cash equivalents approximates fair value due to the short-term maturity of those instruments. Concentrations of Credit Risk For the…
• VLO (VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX)
• FY2025 10-K: …compete with many companies for available supplies of crude oil and other feedstocks, as well as for third-party retail outlets for our petroleum-based products, and other customers. We do not produce any of our primary feedstocks (other than DCOs produced by our ethanol plants) and we do not have a company-owned…
• FY2025 10-K: …vlo:FutureMaturityNextFiscalYearMember us-gaap:PublicUtilitiesInventoryPetroleumProductsMember us-gaap:CashFlowHedgingMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001035002 vlo:FutureMaturityNextFiscalYearMember us-gaap:NotDesignatedAsHedgingInstrumentEconomicHedgeMember vlo:CrudeOilAndRefinedPetroleumProductsMember…
• MPC (MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …compliance matters. Competitors that produce their own supply of feedstocks, own their own retail sites, or have greater financial resources may have a competitive advantage. The refining and marketing industry is highly competitive with respect to both feedstock supply and refined petroleum products. We compete with…
• FY2025 10-K: Table of Contents Item 2. Properties We believe that our properties and facilities are adequate for our operations and that our facilities are adequately maintained. See the following sections for details of our assets by segment. REFINING & MARKETING The table below sets forth the location and crude oil refining…
• PSX (Phillips 66)
• FY2025 10-K: …for refined petroleum products and crude oil, partially offset by an increase in prices for NGL. Purchased crude oil and products increased 1% in 2024, primarily due to higher refined product purchase volumes, partially offset by lower prices for refined petroleum products. Equity in earnings of affiliates decreased…
• FY2025 10-K: 0-K 10.38 02/21/2024 001-32678 10.38 Third Amendment to Receivables Purchase and Financing Agreement, dated as of September 29, 2025, among Phillips 66 Receivables LLC, the persons from time to time party thereto as Purchaser/Lenders, PNC Bank, National Association, as Administrative Agent, Phillips 66 Company, as…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.