PLAINS GP HOLDINGS LP (PAGP): what the price assumes
boothcheck covers PLAINS GP HOLDINGS LP (PAGP) but does not put one priced-in number on it: here the defensible answer is the evidence rather than a point estimate. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating. Narrative composed 2026-08-08.
Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/PAGP
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | PAGP |
| Company | PLAINS GP HOLDINGS LP |
| Sector / Industry | Energy |
| Current price | $28.02/sh |
| Composition | Crude Oil - Sales 96% / Crude Oil - Transportation 3% / Crude Oil - Terminalling, Storage and Other 1% / NGL - Sales 0% / NGL - Terminalling, Storage and Other 0% / Other revenues 0% / Intersegment revenues elimination 0% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (value-band context) | 2.8% |
| Operating margin today | 3.1% |
| Margin compression (value-band) | -0.3pp |
| Multiple paid | 6x operating income |
The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.
The price sits below what even a 5%/yr operating-profit decline would warrant; the inversion reports a bound, not a solved growth path.
Solve inputs: computed at a 7% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage (computed at the 7% minimum rate; the CAPM rate 5.8% sits below it).
How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.39σ |
| cohort percentile (of 48 peers) | 10 |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | — | 0 | — |
| Earnings | 0.46x | 4 | justifies |
| Relative | 0.55x | 2 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.26x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Earnings, Relative, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.0%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=9)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $342.51 | 0.08x | yes | FCF base $2.5B, growth 14% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.0%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $107.33 | 0.26x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 4.0x / 1.8x / 3.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | — | — | no | P/E 18x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 14.8x / 18.0x / 21.2x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 7.93x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $26.98 | 1.04x | yes | Rev $52.3B, growth 14% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 0.1x / 0.1x / 0.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $33.59 | 0.83x | yes | EPS $2.80, growth 2% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=5.00 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $45.97 | 0.61x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $1.24B × (1−40%) / WACC 9.0% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Graham Number | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | EBITDA $2.58B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $133.80 | 0.21x | yes | FCF $2370.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $90.33 | 0.31x | yes | EPS $2.80 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | — | — | no | Revenue $52.31B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $104.98 | 0.27x | yes | EPS $2.80 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $30.26 | 0.93x | yes | EPS $2.80 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | operating | enterprise | $44.1b | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
| NGL | operating | enterprise | $151.0m | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $7.5b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 10.30x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 4.56x |
| Interest coverage | 3.1x |
| Burning cash | no |
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Crude Oil (reported)
- PAA (PLAINS ALL AMERICAN PIPELINE LP)
- FY2025 10-K: …facilities. We also generate significant revenue through a variety of commercial and merchant activities that often result in increased utilization of our transportation and storage assets. Crude Oil Segment Assets Overview As of December 31, 2025, the assets utilized in our Crude Oil segment included the following:…
- FY2025 10-K: …that exist in the United States and Canada. The nature and extent of supply and demand imbalances change from time to time as a result of a variety of factors, including global demand for exports; regional production declines and/or increases; refinery expansions, modifications and shut-downs; available…
- MPLX (MPLX LP)
- FY2025 10-K: …to producing natural gas wells, or to facilities that produce natural gas as a byproduct of refining crude oil. Due to the shift in the source of natural gas production, midstream providers with a significant presence in the shale plays will likely have a competitive advantage. Well-positioned operations allow access…
- FY2025 10-K: …parties of $66 million primarily due to increased employee costs from MPC. • Increased Depreciation and amortization of $68 million primarily due to incremental depreciation associated with recent acquisitions as well as other assets placed in service in 2025. SEGMENT RESULTS We classify our business in the following…
- ENB (ENBRIDGE INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …needs of our customers. Earnings from our crude oil marketing business are primarily generated from arbitrage opportunities which, by their nature, can be replicated by competitors. An increase in market participants entering into similar arbitrage strategies could have an impact on our earnings. Efforts to mitigate…
- FY2025 10-K: …oil growth is expected from the WCSB as additional egress availability will likely support expansion of existing projects and some potential new greenfield facilities. Our Mainline System was effectively fully utilized in 2025, delivering 3.1 mmbpd. Refinery demand in the upper Midwest PADD II market has been strong.…
- EPD (ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS PARTNERS L.P.)
- FY2025 10-K: …service in the first half of 2026. Crude Oil Pipelines & Services This business segment includes our crude oil pipelines, crude oil storage and marine terminals, and related crude oil marketing activities. Crude oil pipelines We have crude oil gathering and transportation pipelines located in Oklahoma, New Mexico and…
- FY2025 10-K: …In addition to the operational storage capacity associated with our crude oil pipelines, we also own and operate crude oil terminals located in Houston, Midland and Beaumont, Texas and Cushing, Oklahoma that are used to store crude oil for us and our customers. In conjunction with other aspects of our midstream…
- ET (ENERGY TRANSFER LP)
- FY2025 10-K: …Express pipelines. Midland North offers 2 MMBbls of crude oil storage capacity and additional supply and demand connectivity. • Marcus Hook, PA. The Marcus Hook Terminal can receive crude oil via marine vessel and can deliver via marine vessel and pipeline. The terminal has a total active crude oil storage capacity…
- FY2025 10-K: …The products transported in these pipelines include multiple grades of gasoline and middle distillates, such as heating oil, diesel and jet fuel. Rates for shipments on these product pipelines are regulated by the FERC and other state regulatory agencies, as applicable. Revenues in this segment are principally…
- OKE (ONEOK INC /NEW/)
- FY2025 10-K: …crude oil from our pipelines could reduce the volumes we transport. Further, the closure of these or other refineries could result in our customers electing to store and distribute Refined Products and crude oil through their proprietary terminals, which could result in a reduction in demand for our storage services.…
- FY2025 10-K: …with other pipelines or terminals for transportation and ultimate distribution to retail fueling stations, convenience stores, travel centers, railroads, airports and other end users. Our Refined Products pipeline system is one of the longest common carrier pipeline systems for Refined Products in the United States,…
- WMB (WILLIAMS COMPANIES, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …and contributions in aid of construction (CIAC) arrangements. Generally, fixed-monthly fees associated with production handling and export revenues are recognized on a units-of-production basis utilizing either contractually determined maximum daily quantities or expected remaining production. CIAC arrangements are…
- FY2025 10-K: …wmb:UnrealizedGainLossMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0000107263 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember us-gaap:EnergyCommoditiesAndServiceMember wmb:TransmissionPowerGulfMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0000107263 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember us-gaap:EnergyCommoditiesAndServiceMember wmb:NortheastGPMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31…
- KMI (KINDER MORGAN, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …that store fuels and offer blending services for ethanol and biodiesel. The transportation and storage volume levels are primarily driven by the demand for the refined petroleum products being shipped or stored. Demand for refined petroleum products tends to follow trends in population and economic growth, and, with…
- FY2025 10-K: …and governmental regulations, the ability to convert to alternative fuels, and weather. 9 Products Pipelines Our Products Pipelines business segment consists of our refined petroleum products, crude oil, and condensate pipelines, and associated terminals, our condensate processing facility, and our transmix…
NGL (reported)
- WMB (WILLIAMS COMPANIES, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …rates for all of the services that these natural gas storage assets provide. Williams stores natural gas for a broad mix of customers, including local natural gas distribution companies, public utilities, municipalities, direct industrial users, electric power generators, and natural gas marketers and producers. Most…
- FY2025 10-K: …and the January 2024 Gulf Coast Storage, August 2024 Discovery, and February 2023 MountainWest Acquisitions at the Transmission, Power & Gulf segment; partially offset by lower volumes from the September 2023 sale of certain liquids pipelines at the Transmission, Power & Gulf segment (see Note 3 - Acquisitions and…
- OKE (ONEOK INC /NEW/)
- FY2025 10-K: …NGLs extracted at our own and third-party natural gas processing plants are gathered by our NGL gathering pipelines. Gathered NGLs are directed to our downstream fractionators to be separated into Purity NGLs. Purity NGLs are stored or distributed to our customers, such as petrochemical companies, propane…
- FY2025 10-K: …through NGL pipelines to fractionation facilities for further processing. In our Natural Gas Liquids segment, NGLs are extracted at our own and third-party natural gas processing plants and are gathered by our NGL gathering pipelines. Gathered NGLs are directed to our downstream fractionators to be separated into…
- KMI (KINDER MORGAN, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …by negotiating contracts with longer terms, with higher per-unit pricing and for a greater percentage of our available capacity. These long-term contracts are typically structured with a fixed fee reserving the right to transport or store natural gas and specify that we receive the majority of our fee for making the…
- FY2025 10-K: …from the acquired Outrigger Energy assets on our Hiland Midstream assets; and (iii) higher gathering rates on KinderHawk. Overall, Midstream's revenue changes are partially offset by corresponding changes in costs of sales. In addition, the increase in Midstream includes a gain on the sale of our equity interest in…
- TRGP (TARGA RESOURCES CORP.)
- FY2025 10-K: …value-added services described below. The Logistics and Transportation segment also includes our NGL pipeline system, which is generally connected to and supplied in part by our Gathering and Processing segment. Our Downstream facilities are located predominantly in Mont Belvieu and Galena Park, Texas, and in Lake…
- FY2025 10-K: …region. In addition, certain producers fractionate mixed NGLs for their own account in captive facilities. The fractionators in the Mont Belvieu region also compete on a more limited basis with fractionators in Conway, Kansas and a number of decentralized, smaller fractionation facilities in Texas, Louisiana and New…
- ET (ENERGY TRANSFER LP)
- FY2025 10-K: …Pipeline, Texas Eastern Transmission, Leach Xpress, Rover and DEO TPL-18. 20 Table of Contents Index to Financial Statements NGL and Refined Products Transportation and Services The following details the assets in our NGL and refined products transportation and services segment: Description of Assets Miles of Liquids…
- FY2025 10-K: $13 million decrease primarily due to ad valorem taxes, retainage credits, and tax audit penalties; • a decrease of $70 million in other income due to the recognition of proceeds from a business interruption claim in September 2024; • a decrease of $28 million in segment margin due a $14 million decrease on our…
- EPD (ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS PARTNERS L.P.)
- FY2025 10-K: …and Wyoming. This fractionator receives mixed NGLs from several major supply basins, including the Mid-Continent, Permian Basin, San Juan Basin and Rocky Mountains. The facility is located at the interconnect of our Mid-America Pipeline System and Seminole NGL Pipeline, thus providing customers access to the Conway…
- FY2025 10-K: …gas processing train will have the capacity to process 300 MMcf/d of natural gas and extract over 40 MBPD of NGLs and is supported by long-term acreage dedication agreements and minimum volume commitments. Midland Basin natural gas processing. Our natural gas processing assets that support customer production in the…
- PAA (PLAINS ALL AMERICAN PIPELINE LP)
- FY2025 10-K: …facilities that produce many everyday consumer products, including a wide range of plastics and synthetic rubber. Our NGL segment operations involve NGL storage and terminalling from our NGL assets located primarily in the Southwestern United States. Our NGL segment revenues are primarily derived from (i) providing…
- FY2025 10-K: …systems that connect major producing regions to key demand centers and export terminals. As one of the largest crude oil midstream service providers in North America, we own an extensive network of pipeline transportation, terminalling, storage and gathering assets in key crude oil producing basins (including the…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.