Oshkosh Corporation (OSK): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $152.73, Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) is priced for +8.9% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.
Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/OSK
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | OSK |
| Company | Oshkosh Corporation |
| Current price | $152.73/sh |
| Composition | Access 43% / Vocational 36% / Transport 20% / Corporate and Other 1% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (value-band context) | 3.2% |
| Operating margin today | 8.1% |
| Margin compression (value-band) | -4.9pp |
| Implied growth | 8.9% |
| Multiple paid | 13x operating income |
The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 10.5% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~5.6pp.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~2.2%/yr; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | +0.39σ |
| cohort percentile (of 214 peers) | 23 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.32x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.50x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | — | 0 | — |
| Growth | 0.99x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=13)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $154.03 | 0.99x | yes | FCF base $0.8B, growth -1% (input: historical growth), terminal g 0.5%, WACC 8.7%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $174.77 | 0.87x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 7.8x / 9.8x / 11.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | — | — | no | P/E 20x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 17.0x / 20.0x / 23.0x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 13x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $98.70 | 1.55x | yes | BV/sh $70.56, ROE (TTM) 12.9%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $115.78 | 1.32x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $106.70 | 1.43x | yes | Rev $10.4B, growth -1% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 0.8x / 0.9x / 1.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Growth-Adjusted P/E | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $101.83 | 1.50x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.74B × (1−21%) / WACC 8.7% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $119.39 | 1.28x | yes | BV $70.56 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 12.9% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.4%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $120.39 | 1.27x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $9.13 × BVPS $70.56) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | EBITDA $1.08B × sector EV/EBITDA 13.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $125.98 | 1.21x | yes | FCF $820.6M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $118.90 | 1.28x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.78B (FCF $0.82B − SBC $0.04B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $7.65 | 19.96x | yes | EPS $9.13 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $9.81 | 15.57x | yes | BV $70.56 × (ROIC 1.2% / WACC 8.7%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | — | — | no | Revenue $10.43B × sector P/S 1.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $98.70 | 1.55x | yes | EPS $9.13 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Access | operating | enterprise | $4.5b | $502.0m operating-income | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
| Vocational | operating | enterprise | $3.7b | $547.1m operating-income | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
| Transport | operating | enterprise | $2.1b | $77.8m operating-income | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $969.5m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 1.45x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 1.15x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -1.2% |
| Burning cash | no |
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
- The counterintuitive fact is the backlog. Oshkosh sits on roughly $14.5 billion of consolidated orders, with $6.6 billion in Vocational alone, even as the most recent quarter's earnings fell hard. The order book points up while the income statement points down.
- At $139.87 the price pays about 12x company-wide operating income, implying roughly 8% annual operating growth for five years. The near-term rate is within what Oshkosh has delivered, so the bet is on duration as the back-half ramp arrives.
- The valuation is value-supported. Earnings Power Value lands at $102, DCF Perpetual Growth at $155, and the FCF-yield methods near $119 to $126, so multiple frames sit at or below the price. This is a cyclical priced on earnings power, not a growth premium.
Bull Case
The most counterintuitive thing in Oshkosh's numbers is that the backlog is enormous and rising while the headline earnings are falling. The company carries about $14.54 billion of consolidated backlog, including a $6.6 billion vocational backlog, and the Access segment reported a 1.6x book-to-bill on strong order activity from megaprojects and rental-channel customers (Oshkosh Q1 2026, StockStory). A backlog of that size against roughly $11 billion of expected annual sales is more than a year of visible demand already on the books. The weak Q1 was a timing problem, not a demand problem: weather and travel delays pushed fire-truck shipments out of the quarter. The orders did not disappear; they moved right.
The valuation reflects a business priced on its earnings power rather than a growth story, which is the comfortable place to be for a cyclical. At $139.87 (June 27, 2026) the price implies about 8% annual operating growth for five years, a pace within what Oshkosh has delivered, and the methods support it. Earnings Power Value, which values the business at normalized operating earnings with no growth, lands at $102, DCF Perpetual Growth at $155, DCF Exit Multiple at $165, and the FCF-yield methods near $119 to $126. When the earnings-power, growth-DCF, and cash-flow families all sit at or near the price, the downside is anchored by what the business already earns. Oshkosh generates roughly $820 million of free cash flow, which funds the dividend, buybacks that have shrunk the share count, and reinvestment.
The segment mix is the durability argument. Oshkosh spans Access (aerial work platforms and telehandlers), Vocational (fire trucks, refuse, and the NGDV postal program), and Defense, three demand cycles that rarely trough together. The filing notes the AUSA acquisition added incremental sales and that the company sources roughly 20% of net sales from the United States across recent years (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-054061). Management maintained its full-year outlook for adjusted EPS of about $11.50 on roughly $11.0 billion of sales, with the year explicitly back-half weighted as fire-truck throughput rises, NGDV production ramps, and higher-margin defense contracts contribute. If that ramp lands, the depressed Q1 is the buying window, not the trend.
Bear Case
Open on where Oshkosh sits in its cycle, because that is the real risk. This is a heavy-equipment maker, and the Q1 print showed exactly how a cyclical rolls over: net sales were roughly flat at about $2.3 billion, but adjusted EPS fell to $0.85 from $1.92 on unfavorable sales mix, higher manufacturing overhead, and lower volume (Oshkosh Q1 2026, stocktitan). Peak-cycle earnings and sustainable earnings are different numbers, and a single weak quarter can mark the inflection. The filings already show gross margin pressure from higher sales discounts of $118 million (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-054061). Discounting to move product is the classic late-cycle tell.
The whole year hinges on a back-half ramp that is not yet proven. Management's $11.50 adjusted-EPS target requires fire-truck throughput to accelerate, NGDV postal-truck production to climb, and defense contracts to kick in, all in the second half. The NGDV run rate is guided only to the low end of 16,000 to 20,000 units and is tied to United States Postal Service delivery schedules the company does not control. Vocational margins were trimmed to 16% to 18% from an originally forecast 17% on capacity timing and adverse mix. A back-end-weighted plan carries execution risk by construction: if the ramp slips, the full-year number misses and a year of guidance unwinds in a single quarter.
The demand-cycle and customer-concentration exposure compound it. Access depends on construction and rental-fleet capital spending, which is rate-sensitive and turns down quickly; Vocational depends on municipal budgets and the single large USPS program; Defense depends on government procurement timing. The peer cohort here, auto-supplier and truck names like Aptiv, PACCAR, Lear, and Visteon, shares the same cyclical demand and pricing pressure, and PACCAR's filing even notes it no longer discloses truck order backlog because most of it has a duration under a year (PACCAR FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-057025), a reminder that backlog comfort can be shorter-lived than it looks. The price already implies steady 8% operating growth; in a cyclical downturn the realized number can be negative, and the methods that ignore growth, like Earnings Power Value at $102, are the floor the stock falls toward.
Valuation
Oshkosh is priced as a cyclical on its earnings power rather than a growth premium, and the methods agree across families. The growth and cash-flow methods cluster near the price (DCF Perpetual Growth $155, DCF Exit Multiple $165, FCF Yield $126, SBC-adjusted FCF Yield $119), the asset methods sit a bit lower (Two-Stage Excess Return $116, Residual Income $119, Simple Excess Return $99), and Earnings Power Value anchors the floor at $102. One caution: GAAP EPS turned negative in the trailing window on charges, which knocks out the EPS-based methods and pushes the ROIC-Justified figure to an artificially low $10; that is a measurement artifact of a write-down year, not a statement that the business earns nothing.
Inverting the price gives the clearest read. At $139.87 the market pays about 12x company-wide operating income, implying roughly 8% annual operating growth over five years, computed at a 10.5% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth, where each point of cost of capital moves the implied growth about 5.5 points. The priced-in assumption reads as within range and, if anything, conservative: the price is broadly supported by earnings power and asks for growth Oshkosh has historically delivered. The valuation case is therefore a cyclical-timing one. If the back-half ramp lands and the cycle holds, the price is undemanding against the methods; if the cycle rolls over, the realized growth undershoots and Earnings Power Value near $102 is the gravity.
Catalysts
Oshkosh reported Q1 2026 results with consolidated sales of about $2.3 billion (up 0.2%) and adjusted EPS of $0.85, down from $1.92, on unfavorable mix, higher manufacturing overhead, and lower volume, as weather and travel delays pushed fire-truck shipments out of the quarter (Oshkosh Q1 2026, stocktitan). Despite the drop, management maintained its full-year outlook for diluted EPS of about $10.90, adjusted EPS of about $11.50, and roughly $11.0 billion of net sales, with consolidated backlog of $14.54 billion (Oshkosh Q1 2026, Yahoo Finance).
The forward setup is explicitly back-half weighted, so the next two prints carry outsized weight. The catalysts are the fire-truck throughput recovery in Vocational (a $6.6 billion backlog waiting on capacity), the NGDV postal-truck production ramp toward the low end of 16,000 to 20,000 units, the timing of higher-margin defense contracts, and the Access book-to-bill, last reported at a strong 1.6x. Watch vocational segment margins against the trimmed 16% to 18% guide and any further sales-discount pressure, since both are the early signals of cycle softening. The full-year target depends on the second-half ramp arriving on schedule, which makes the mid-year quarterly results the key test of the thesis.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Access (reported)
- TEX (Terex Corporation)
- FY2025 10-K: 027 and interim periods within those fiscal years, with early adoption permitted. The Company is currently evaluating the impact of this guidance on its consolidated financial statements. F-16 In November 2025, the FASB issued ASU 2025-08, Financial Instruments - Credit Losses (Topic 326). The amendments in this…
- FY2025 10-K: …barriers may exist, and may require a greater level of management's attention. Expansion into developing markets may also require modification of products to meet local requirements or preferences. Modification to the design of our products to meet local requirements and preferences may take longer or be more costly…
- CTOS (Custom Truck One Source, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: APS segment, we provide our customers a total job-site solution, offering a range of products for rent or sale to fully outfit their equipment and crews for activity in the field. Our comprehensive APS offering expands opportunities to serve our 1 Table of Contents equipment rental and sales customers through the…
- FY2025 10-K: …Standards In December 2025, the FASB issued ASU 2025-11 - Interim Reporting (Topic 270): Narrow-Scope Improvements ("ASU 2025-11"), which is intended to improve the navigability of the guidance in ASC 270, Interim Reporting, and clarify when it applies. Under the amendments, an entity is subject to ASC 270 if it…
- ALG (ALAMO GROUP INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …opportunity and inclusive and respectful workplace. Attracting, developing, and retaining our team of highly talented and motivated employees is key to Alamo Group's success in meeting our customers' needs and sustaining the Company's growth. In addition to developing internal candidates, so they are "ready now" when…
- FY2025 10-K: …information on income taxes paid. The ASU is effective on a prospective basis for annual periods beginning after December 15, 2024. Early adoption is also permitted for annual financial statements that have not yet been issued or made available for issuance. This ASU resulted in additional required disclosures being…
Vocational (reported)
- FSS (FEDERAL SIGNAL CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …of forced or compulsory labor, the effective abolition of childhood labor, workers' rights to freedom of association and unionization, and the protection of employees' ability to confidentially report policy violations. 4 Table of Contents Cultural Philosophy The Company is committed to attracting and retaining…
- FY2025 10-K: Company aims to assist and encourage employees to expand their knowledge, skills, and job effectiveness by continuing their education at local accredited institutions of higher learning. Certain of the Company's businesses also partner with nearby universities, from time to time, to offer courses and programs directly…
- ALG (ALAMO GROUP INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: 4 and transitioned to the role of Executive Vice President Corporate Development and Investor Relations in January of 2025. Prior to joining the Company, from 2010 to 2015, Mr. Rizzuti served as Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary for Erickson Incorporated, a publicly traded aircraft manufacturing and…
- FY2025 10-K: Vice President of Global Human Resources of Alamo Group Inc. in November of 2024. Prior to his appointment, Mr. Srinivasan was Vice President of Human Resources at AdeptAg since 2022. Mr. Srinivasan has also previously held several senior human resources roles at industrial companies, including Astec Industries,…
- TEX (Terex Corporation)
- FY2025 10-K: REV; • political, economic and other risks that arise from operating a multinational business; • changes in the availability and price of certain materials and components, which may result in supply chain disruptions; • consolidation within our customer base and suppliers; • failure of our equipment to perform as…
- FY2025 10-K: …team members. We rely on the management and leadership skills of our senior management team, particularly those of the Chief Executive Officer. Additionally, certain key employees have extensive experience in our markets and are familiar with our business, systems and processes. The loss of the services of key…
Transport (reported)
- GD (GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …wheeled and tracked combat vehicles, weapon systems, energetics and munitions. The segment consists of three business units - Land Systems, European Land Systems (ELS), and Ordnance and Tactical Systems (OTS). Combat Systems creates long-term value through operational excellence - high-quality, on-schedule and…
- FY2025 10-K: …while offering customers options to reduce or eliminate their carbon footprints. Gulfstream and Jet Aviation have been at the forefront of the industry by adopting and expanding the availability of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which achieves as much as an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions per gallon over…
- TXT (Textron Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …our E-Z-GO business refurbishes and sells previously owned golf cars. A significant portion of the products sold by the Textron Specialized Vehicles businesses are powered with lithium batteries, reducing the products' impact on the environment. The diversified customer base for Textron Specialized Vehicles includes…
- FY2025 10-K: …a restructuring plan to reduce operating expenses through headcount reductions at the Industrial, Bell and Textron Systems segments. In the Industrial segment, the plan included headcount reductions at Textron Specialized Vehicles, resulting from lower demand for certain of our powersports products, and at Kautex,…
- LMT (LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …to provide access to sites where work must be performed and the customer-furnished equipment necessary to complete the contract. The MTA filed an answer and counterclaim alleging that we breached the contract and subsequently terminated the contract for alleged default. The primary damages sought by the MTA are the…
- FY2025 10-K: , a program with the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) utilizing next generation propulsion and sensors to provide homeland missile defense. • The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (Orion), NASA's next generation exploration-class crewed vehicle for human exploration to the Moon and throughout the solar system. • Global…
- HII (HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …estimated using a most likely amount approach. Estimated revenues represent those amounts for which the Company believes a significant reversal of revenue is not probable. The Company recognizes revenues related to shipbuilding contracts as it satisfies the related performance obligations over time using a…
- FY2025 10-K: …backlog within Mission Technologies, as well as nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and submarine program intangible assets within Newport News, with an aggregate weighted-average useful life of 28 years based on the long life cycle of the related programs. Amortization expense for the years ended December 31, 2025,…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.