ORMAT TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (ORA): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $97.95, ORMAT TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (ORA) is priced for +19.6% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/ORA

Headline

FieldValue
TickerORA
CompanyORMAT TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
Current price$97.95/sh
CompositionElectricity 80% / Product 16% / Energy Storage 4%

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Operating margin (value-band context)10.0%
Operating margin today17.1%
Margin compression (value-band)-7.1pp
Implied growth19.6%
Multiple paid39x operating income

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 7.2% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~9.9pp.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~8 years; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: elevated

ReferenceValue
vs own history+0.68σ
cohort percentile (of 72 peers)94
sustained it ~5 years at this level40%
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset6.44x5expensive
Earnings4.38x3expensive
Relative5.83x2expensive
Growth1.10x3expensive

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.5%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=13)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$14.426.79xyesFCF base $0.0B, growth 25% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.5%, 7yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$88.791.10xyesExit EV/EBITDA: 9.8x / 12.8x / 15.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr
Relative ValuationRelativenoP/E 28.27x (blended: static sector reference 20x + trailing (TTM) 48x), scenarios: 22.6x / 28.3x / 33.9x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 13x
Simple DDMGrowthno
Two-Stage DDMGrowthno
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$22.264.40xyesBV/sh $41.48, ROE (TTM) 5.0%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$15.216.44xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$120.730.81xyesRev $1.2B, growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 4.2x / 5.2x / 6.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$24.843.94xyesEPS $2.07, growth 4% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=11.64 (Overvalued)
Margin TrajectoryGrowthno
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$18.135.40xyesNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.17B × (1−21%) / WACC 8.5% → EPV (no growth)
Residual IncomeAsset$14.356.83xyesBV $41.48 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 5.0% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 3.2%/yr
Graham NumberAsset$43.962.23xyes√(22.5 × EPS $2.07 × BVPS $41.48) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelativenoEBITDA $0.50B × sector EV/EBITDA 13.0x
FCF YieldEarningsno
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarningsno
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$28.933.39xyesEPS $2.07 × (8.5 + 2×4.1%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$10.799.08xyesBV $41.48 × (ROIC 2.2% / WACC 8.5%)
P/Sales SectorRelativenoRevenue $1.16B × sector P/S 2.5x
PEG Fair ValueRelative$12.697.72xyesEPS $2.07 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 4.1% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 6.1x
Earnings YieldEarnings$22.384.38xyesEPS $2.07 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelativeno
Clinical Phase NPVGrowthno
MertonAssetno
V5 Mechanicalno

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

UnitRoleValuation basisRevenueReported profitValue evidenceStatus
Electricityoperatingenterprise$702.3m$161.9m operating-incomewithheldunresolved no unit value
Productoperatingenterprise$139.7m$10.3m operating-incomewithheldunresolved no unit value
Energy Storageoperatingenterprise$37.7m$242k operating-incomewithheldunresolved no unit value

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$2.1b
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)13.45x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)10.63x
Interest coverage1.3x
Share count CAGR (dilution)2.4%
Burning cashno

Bullet Takeaways

Ormat is a capital-heavy, contracted geothermal independent power producer, and reading it as such is the key. Its electricity segment, about 80% of revenue, sells baseload power under long-term agreements, the steady core, while product and energy storage add growth. At $127.73 only the growth-DCF reaches the price; the static frames call it richly valued.

The quarter was a record. Q1 2026 revenue rose 76% to $403.9 million, adjusted EPS of $1.30 beat by 41%, energy storage revenue grew 153%, and the company signed power-purchase agreements with Google and Switch tied to data-center demand.

The structural caution is the balance sheet. Net debt is roughly $2.1 billion, about 10x trailing operating income, and interest coverage is only 1.3x. For an asset that needs continuous capital, that leverage makes interest rates and renewable-incentive policy the variables with the most leverage on the equity.

Bull Case

Frame Ormat by its stage and structure, because the multiple looks very different once you do. This is a mature, vertically integrated geothermal independent power producer. Its electricity segment, roughly 80% of revenue, sells baseload renewable power under long-term contracts, which the 10-K describes alongside its product business of "construction and installation, and operating services" and its energy-storage business selling "capacity, energy and/or ancillary services" (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001296445-26-000006). That contracted electricity base is utility-like: long-lived geothermal plants producing around the clock, with revenue visibility measured in years. The right way to read the numbers is as a regulated-style cash annuity with growth options bolted on.

The growth options are now live and large. Q1 2026 delivered record revenue of $403.9 million, up 76% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $1.30 that beat estimates by 41%. Energy storage revenue grew 153%, and the product segment executed major projects. Most important for the durability premium, Ormat signed power-purchase agreements with hyperscalers Google and Switch, positioning it for the surge in data-center electricity demand and grid modernization. A renewable baseload producer with hyperscaler contracts is exactly the kind of asset the AI-power buildout needs, and Ormat is one of the few pure-play geothermal names that can supply it.

The longer-term optionality is real innovation, not vapor. Ormat is advancing Enhanced Geothermal Systems pilots with SLB and Sage Geosystems, targeting initial production by 2027, which could expand the geography where geothermal is economic. The valuation reflects a moat-and-durability bet: only the growth-DCF reaches the price, and the implied duration is a moderate 5.7 years rather than the multi-decade assumptions in many richly valued names. For an investor who sees Ormat as a contracted renewable producer riding a data-center demand wave with a credible technology runway, the premium is a bet on the contracted base compounding, which the recent results and the hyperscaler agreements support.

Bear Case

The variable with the most leverage on Ormat is not demand; it is the balance sheet and the rate environment around it. Ormat carries net debt of roughly $2.1 billion, about 10 times trailing operating income, and interest coverage of only 1.3x. That is thin. The 10-K is explicit about what such leverage does: it can "limit our flexibility to plan for, or react to, changes in our business and industry, place us at a competitive disadvantage compared to our less leveraged competitors and increase our vulnerability" to adverse conditions (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001296445-26-000006). A geothermal IPP must keep spending heavily to build and maintain plants, so it refinances and adds debt continuously. In a higher-for-longer rate environment, the interest bill on that debt rises and consumes the modest coverage cushion, leaving little for equity holders. With coverage at 1.3x, even a moderate increase in financing cost or a dip in operating income is material.

The second external lever is policy. Renewable-energy economics lean on government incentives, and Ormat's filing warns that "the reduction, elimination or inability to monetize government incentives could adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows" (same 10-K). Geothermal also depends on a patchwork of state-level treatment, such as property-tax exemptions and grants, that can change with the political winds. A rollback of renewable tax credits or a shift in state policy would hit project returns directly, and the price does not appear to discount a hostile policy turn.

The valuation leaves little room for either risk. The price sits above the high end of the supported range, and only the growth-DCF method reaches it; the asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple frames all read richly valued, landing far below. The trailing operating margin of about 17% is healthy for a utility-like business, but the price requires sustained growth that the static methods do not credit, and the rarity check is elevated with the fade assumption tripped. The record quarter was boosted by a 153% jump in lumpier energy-storage and product revenue, not only by the steady electricity base. If rates stay high against the heavy debt, if incentives are cut, or if the project and storage revenue proves uneven, the equity, which sits on top of $2.1 billion of debt, would feel it first, and the stock would re-rate toward the static frames below.

Valuation

Ormat is a moat-premium valuation sitting above its supported range. The base estimate is near $57 with a wide range of roughly $35 to $100, against a price of $127.73 (June 27, 2026), so the price is above even the high end of the band. The method split is stark: a DCF exit multiple near $110, EV/EBITDA relative near $113, and a discounted future market cap near $157 reach or exceed the price, while the asset-based methods land in the teens to low $20s, the earnings-power methods near $28, and several relative reads in the $20s to $40s. The characterization is that asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all say richly valued, and only the growth-DCF reaches the price, so the premium is a durability bet the static frames cannot price.

The inversion is moderate in duration but demanding in what it assumes. With a current operating margin around 17%, backing out the price implies an operating margin near 10% sustained with growth over about 5.7 years. The shorter duration is a point in Ormat's favor relative to the multi-decade names, but the rarity assessment is elevated with the fade check tripped, and the record quarter leaned on volatile storage and product revenue. The methods are pricing the contracted electricity annuity as solid and the growth on top as the question.

The balance sheet is the dominant risk the central estimate cannot fully capture. Net debt near $2.1 billion at roughly 10x operating income, with interest coverage of just 1.3x, means the equity is highly geared to financing costs. A capital-intensive IPP at this leverage is acutely sensitive to interest rates and to the availability and cost of project financing. That is why the asset and earnings-power frames sit so far below the price: they weigh the debt heavily. The valuation question is whether the contracted base plus the data-center and storage growth justify paying above the range for a heavily leveraged renewable producer. The methods say the premium is only defensible if rates ease, incentives hold, and the growth segments prove durable rather than lumpy.

Catalysts

Ormat reported record Q1 2026 on May 8, 2026: revenue up 75.8% to $403.9 million and adjusted EPS of $1.30, beating estimates by 41%, with energy storage revenue up 153% and electricity revenue of $181.6 million (StockTitan). The company signed power-purchase agreements with Google and Switch tied to data-center demand and backed its full-year 2026 revenue outlook of $1.11 to $1.16 billion (Investing.com).

The catalysts ahead are the data-center contracts, the storage ramp, and the financing environment. Ormat is advancing Enhanced Geothermal Systems pilots with SLB and Sage Geosystems, targeting initial production by 2027 (Seeking Alpha). Watch three things over the coming quarters: whether the hyperscaler PPAs translate into firm new electricity capacity and revenue, whether the energy-storage and product segments keep growing rather than reverting to lumpier results, and most importantly the trajectory of interest rates and project-financing costs against the heavy debt load and thin coverage. New contracted capacity at reasonable financing cost would support the premium the price assumes; rising rates, an incentive rollback, or uneven storage and product revenue would expose the leverage and pull the stock toward the static valuation methods, which sit below the current price.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Electricity (reported)

Product (reported)

Energy Storage (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

View the full interactive ORA report on boothcheck