Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $72.42, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) is priced for +0.5% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.
Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/OLLI
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | OLLI |
| Company | Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. |
| Current price | $72.42/sh |
| Composition | Consumables 32% / Home 28% / Seasonal 19% / Other 21% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (value-band context) | 1.6% |
| Operating margin today | 11.4% |
| Margin compression (value-band) | -9.8pp |
| Implied growth | 0.5% |
| Multiple paid | 15x operating income |
The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 10: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.2% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.
How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.79σ |
| cohort percentile (of 69 peers) | 29 |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; earnings-power land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.37x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 2.45x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.79x | 5 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.75x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.5%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=18)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $128.02 | 0.57x | yes | FCF base $0.3B, growth 17% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.5%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $96.67 | 0.75x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 11.3x / 13.3x / 15.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $91.45 | 0.79x | yes | P/E 22x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 17.9x / 22.0x / 26.1x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 14x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $44.61 | 1.62x | yes | BV/sh $31.27, ROE (TTM) 13.2%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $52.81 | 1.37x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $69.44 | 1.04x | yes | Rev $2.7B, growth 17% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.3x / 1.6x / 1.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $99.42 | 0.73x | yes | EPS $4.04, growth 25% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.71 (Undervalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $22.50 | 3.22x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.22B × (1−24%) / WACC 8.5% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $54.57 | 1.33x | yes | BV $31.27 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 13.2% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.6%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $53.31 | 1.36x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $4.04 × BVPS $31.27) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $76.86 | 0.94x | yes | EBITDA $0.37B × sector EV/EBITDA 14.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $29.58 | 2.45x | yes | FCF $212.7M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $27.20 | 2.66x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.20B (FCF $0.21B − SBC $0.01B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $130.36 | 0.56x | yes | EPS $4.04 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $8.07 | 8.97x | yes | BV $31.27 × (ROIC 2.2% / WACC 8.5%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $90.36 | 0.80x | yes | Revenue $2.73B × sector P/S 2.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $149.12 | 0.49x | yes | EPS $4.04 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 24.6% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 36.9x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $43.68 | 1.66x | yes | EPS $4.04 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie's Bargain Outlet (consolidated) | operating | enterprise | 2.3B reported-currency | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net cash | $195.3m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | -0.83x (net cash) |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | -0.63x (net cash) |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -0.7% |
| Burning cash | no |
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
At $76.88 the price sits inside the range the methods support, not above it. The implied-expectations read backs out about 8% annual operating-income growth from here, against a current operating margin near 11.4%. That is a demanding but not heroic bar for a retailer still adding stores at a double-digit clip.
The model families disagree in a readable way. Relative multiples and the growth-DCF land at or above the price; earnings-power methods say it is expensive, roughly two and a half times their central estimate. The valuation rests on continued store growth and steady comps, not on the current earnings base alone.
The balance sheet removes the downside tail. Ollie's carries about $198 million in liquid assets against roughly $2.4 million of debt, a near net-cash position, and the share count has been flat to slightly lower. There is no leverage risk in this story; the risk is paying a growth multiple if the growth slows.
Bull Case
Start with where the price sits against the methods, because that frames everything else. At $76.88 the implied-expectations base lands near $116, with a supported range from roughly $72 to $143. The price is not stretched above what the valuation methods justify; it sits in the lower half of the band. Relative multiples and the growth-DCF clear the price comfortably, and only the earnings-power family says expensive. For a company growing units in the mid-teens, that is the spread you want to see: the market is paying for the franchise, not chasing it.
The franchise itself is a sourcing engine. Ollie's builds on what it calls the foundation of its growth, "Good Stuff Cheap," an "ever changing product assortment of national branded products at drastically reduced prices" (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001140361-25-010442). That ever-changing mix is the point: a closeout buyer that can place opportunistic orders turns excess inventory across the consumer economy into a treasure-hunt store experience competitors cannot easily replicate. The loyalty layer reinforces it. Management points to growing "member loyalty and utilizing more sophisticated data-driven targeted marketing" through Ollie's Army, which crossed 17.5 million members, up 12.6% year over year (same 10-K; Q1 FY2026 release).
The recent quarter shows the model compounding. Q1 FY2026 net sales rose 14.2% to $658.9 million, diluted EPS climbed 19% to $0.92, and gross margin expanded 80 basis points to 41.9% on lower supply-chain costs and better merchandise margin. The company opened 27 stores to reach 672 across 35 states, raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to about $4.50, and lifted its buyback target to $125 million, roughly half of free cash flow. Mid-teens unit growth, expanding margins, a clean balance sheet and a buyer's culture is a recipe for the steady compounding the price assumes.
Bear Case
The bear case names competitors before it names a multiple, because the model's vulnerability is competitive, not financial. Ollie's competes for the same value-seeking shopper as Walmart, the dollar chains and Amazon, and its 10-K warns that consolidation among rivals could result in "the provision of a wider variety of merchandise at competitive prices by these consolidated companies, which could have a material adverse effect" on the business (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001140361-25-010442). The closeout supply Ollie's depends on is not contracted; it is opportunistic. When the broader retail system runs lean on excess inventory, the buyer's edge narrows, and larger competitors with more sourcing leverage can absorb the same deals.
The customer base is also a single point of dependence. The filing states plainly that "we depend on our loyal customer base, particularly our members of Ollie's Army, for our consistent sales and sales growth" (same 10-K). Comparable-store sales rose only 1.7% in the latest quarter, driven by basket size rather than traffic, and full-year guidance assumes just 2% comps. Most of the growth is new stores, not deepening per-store demand. A maturing store base and slowing comps would expose how much of the multiple rests on the unit-growth runway continuing.
That is where the valuation tension lands. The earnings-power family values the company at roughly $22, against a price near $77 (June 27, 2026), because zero-growth normalized earnings cannot carry the multiple. The price requires about 8% annual operating-income growth to be justified, and that growth is almost entirely a function of opening 75 stores a year on schedule and keeping comps positive. If store productivity fades or supply tightens, the price would re-rate toward the earnings-power frame, which sits well below today's level.
Valuation
The methods bracket the price rather than reject it. The growth-DCF family lands above the price, with DCF perpetual growth near $125 and DCF exit multiple near $100. Relative multiples are roughly fair, with relative valuation near $90, EV/EBITDA relative near $76 and P/sales near $89. The asset family sits below, with excess-return methods in the $44 to $54 range. The earnings-power family is the clear outlier on the low side: earnings power value near $22 and FCF-yield reads in the high $20s, reflecting that on a no-growth basis the current earnings stream does not support the price.
Inverting the price puts a number on the bet. To justify $76.88 the model requires about 8% annual operating-income growth, against a current operating margin near 11.4%, with the implied margin assumption modest. That is consistent with a retailer growing units in the mid-teens while comps stay low single digit. The implied range, roughly $72 to $143 around a base near $116, carries an ok reliability flag, which is to say the methods agree enough to be useful but the answer still leans on the store-growth runway holding.
The balance sheet does not change the central estimate, but it removes the left tail. With about $198 million of liquid assets against roughly $2.4 million of debt and a flat-to-shrinking share count, Ollie's funds its expansion and its buyback from internally generated cash. The risk in the name is not solvency or leverage; it is the price-versus-growth tradeoff. Pay near the base and the methods support you; pay up toward the high end and you are underwriting flawless execution on the store plan.
Catalysts
Ollie's reported Q1 FY2026 with sales up 14.2% to $658.9 million, EPS of $0.92 up 19%, comps up 1.7%, and gross margin of 41.9%, and the stock rose on the print (StockTitan). Management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to about $4.50 and lifted the buyback target to $125 million (Simply Wall St).
The near-term catalysts are the store cadence and comps. Full-year 2026 guidance calls for 75 new store openings, about 2% comparable-store sales growth, gross margin near 40.7%, and operating income of $340 to $348 million (AlphaStreet). Watch three things into the next two quarters: whether the new-store pace stays on plan and the productivity of those stores holds, whether comps stay positive on traffic rather than just basket, and whether closeout supply stays abundant enough to protect the 40%-plus gross margin. Positive comps with on-schedule openings support the unit-growth thesis the price assumes; soft comps or a supply pinch would pull attention toward the earnings-power frame, which sits far below the current price.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (consolidated) (reported)
- FIVE (Five Below, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …operating income as a percentage of our net sales. 41 Results of Consolidated Operations The following tables summarize key components of our results of consolidated operations for the periods indicated, both in dollars and as a percentage of our net sales. Refer to Item 7 "Results of Consolidated Operations" in our…
- FY2025 10-K: …e-commerce operations, are included in costs of goods sold. The Company has elected to exclude all sales taxes collected from customers and remitted to governmental authorities from net sales in the accompanying consolidated statements of operations. (p) Supply Chain Finance During the third quarter of fiscal 2024,…
- BURL (BURLINGTON STORES, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …Item 6. R e served 23 Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations The following discussion summarizes the significant factors affecting our consolidated operating results, financial condition, liquidity and cash flows as of and for the periods presented below. The…
- FY2025 10-K: .35+ Form of Restricted Stock Unit Award Notice and Agreement between Burlington Stores, Inc. and award recipients pursuant to the Burlington Stores, Inc. 2013 Omnibus Incentive Plan, as amended and restated May 17, 2017 (for grants made to certain merchandising and planning associates from and after May 3, 2021).…
- KSS (KOHL'S CORP)
- FY2025 10-K: 534 Accrued liabilities $ 1,263 $ 1,201 (a) See Note 5 of the Consolidated Financial Statements for further discussion on income taxes. Supplier Finance Programs The Company has an agreement with a third-party financing provider to facilitate a supplier financing program. The program provides participating suppliers…
- FY2025 10-K: …beauty, and home products. Our Kohl's stores generally carry a consistent merchandise assortment with some differences attributable to local preferences, store size, and Sephora at Kohl's shop-in-shops ("Sephora shops"). Our website includes merchandise which is available in our stores, as well as merchandise that is…
- DDS (DILLARD’S, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …at any of our retail stores located primarily in shopping malls and open-air centers throughout the southwest, southeast and midwest regions of the United States. Our customers may also visit us online at our e-Commerce site, dillards.com, gaining company-wide access to in-store merchandise selections across 30…
- FY2025 10-K: …online customers have the ability to buy online and pick up in-store. Retail in-store customers have the ability to purchase items that may be ordered and fulfilled from either a fulfillment center or another retail store location. Online customers may return orders via mail, or customers may return orders placed…
- PSMT (PriceSmart, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: , and the expired unused rebates are recognized as "Other revenue and income" on the consolidated statements of income. Co-branded Credit Card Points Reward Programs. Most of the Company's subsidiaries have points reward programs related to co-branded credit cards. These points reward programs provide incremental…
- FY2025 10-K: …of the depreciable lives of certain leasehold improvements, which were previously limited to the lease term, lowering future annual depreciation. Going forward, the lower annual depreciation expense and the cost savings on straight-line rent expense, partially offset by the depreciation expense on the building, will…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.