OCEANEERING INTERNATIONAL INC (OII): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $48.07, OCEANEERING INTERNATIONAL INC (OII) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~5.3 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/OII

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 11.7% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~1.6 years.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~10.4%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.0%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=15)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• Oceaneering is a diversified offshore-services company, not a single oilfield play: its five segments span subsea robotics, manufactured products, offshore projects, integrity and digital solutions, and a growing aerospace and defense arm.
• The defining trend is the earnings recovery: subsea robotics ran a 32% operating margin in the fourth quarter of 2025 on improved pricing and utilization, and the company posted six consecutive years of EBITDA growth.
• What to watch is the order book against the oil cycle: total inbound orders reached $854 million, including roughly $180 million of Brazilian subsea contracts, but offshore activity ultimately tracks energy-investment cycles.

Bull Case

The trajectory is unmistakable, and it is the heart of the bull case. Oceaneering posted its sixth consecutive year of EBITDA growth in 2025, with adjusted consolidated EBITDA rising about 20% to $347 million. The engine is subsea robotics, the company's largest segment, where it operates the remotely operated vehicles that service offshore infrastructure. That segment ran a 32% operating margin in the fourth quarter, with full-year margins expanding toward the high 30s on better ROV pricing, higher utilization, and increased tooling volumes. Rising margins on rising volume is the signature of a services business with regained pricing power, and Oceaneering's installed ROV fleet and operational expertise are not easily replicated.

The diversification is what separates this from a pure oil-services cyclical. Beyond subsea, the aerospace and defense technologies segment won the largest initial contract in the company's history, a foundational award for its growth plans, and the manufactured-products and integrity-management businesses round out a portfolio with revenue streams that do not all move with the oil price. The defense arm in particular gives Oceaneering exposure to government spending cycles that are independent of energy, applying its underwater-engineering capabilities to a different, often counter-cyclical customer base.

The balance sheet lets the recovery compound. Oceaneering holds net cash of about $207 million, interest coverage near 8 times, and a high return on equity of roughly 31%, while generating positive free cash flow, guided to $100 million to $120 million for 2026. With $854 million of inbound orders booked, including about $180 million of Brazilian subsea contracts, the forward demand is visible, not hoped for. The bull case is a margin-expanding, cash-generative, diversified offshore-services leader at a price the asset, peer-multiple, and cash-flow methods all support.

Bear Case

The bull case rests on assumptions about the future, and the most fragile one is the durability of the offshore-energy upcycle. The margin expansion in subsea robotics and the strength of the order book are real, but they are products of a favorable offshore investment environment, and that environment is cyclical. Offshore exploration and production budgets rise and fall with oil prices and the majors' capital-allocation decisions, and the high ROV utilization and pricing driving today's margins can reverse when operators pull back. The 10-K is a reminder of how lumpy this revenue is, noting the company generates "a material amount of our consolidated revenue from contracts for services in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico in our OPG segment, which is usually more active in the secon"d and third quarters. A business this tied to offshore spending carries an inherent boom-bust rhythm the recent run of growth can obscure.

The second fragile assumption is the aerospace and defense growth story. The largest-ever contract win is foundational to the segment's plans, which means the segment's projected growth is concentrated in execution of major awards, a dependence that cuts both ways. Large government contracts can slip, get rescoped, or face funding delays, and a segment leaning on a single foundational award has less margin for error than a diversified book of small jobs. The bull narrative treats defense as a steady counterweight to the energy cycle; the bear notes it is a newer, contract-dependent business still proving it can scale.

The valuation reflects an elevated assumption about the company's best segment carrying the premium. The price embeds the manufactured-products and subsea franchises sustaining strong economics for years, an assumption the analysis flags as on the higher side of what such businesses typically hold. If the offshore cycle softens or the defense ramp stalls, the earnings-power lens, which already reads the stock as expensive against normalized profit, becomes the more relevant gravity. The balance sheet is genuinely strong, so this is not a solvency risk; it is a cyclical-timing and execution risk, the chance that a price paid near the top of an offshore upcycle proves too generous when the cycle turns.

Valuation

Oceaneering is a sum of segments, and the price is best understood that way rather than through a single company-wide number. The most demanding assumption sits in the manufactured-products franchise, where the price embeds the business sustaining strong economics for roughly five years, a duration the analysis characterizes as elevated. The diversified mix, subsea robotics, manufactured products, offshore projects, integrity solutions, and aerospace and defense, means a blended multiple would average five quite different businesses, so the segment view is the honest one.

The methods mostly support the price, with one clear exception. The asset-based methods land right around the price, reflecting a high return on equity of about 31% on a modest book value; the relative-multiple and growth-based methods land near it too. The earnings-power method is the outlier saying expensive, and it does so because the normalized operating-income figure it capitalizes is dragged down by the prior offshore-services downturn, when margins were far lower than today. That backward-looking normalization understates the company's current earning power, which is why the asset and forward methods, valuing the business as it operates now, dominate the read. The price embeds a within-range to slightly elevated bet, not a stretch.

The balance sheet is a genuine support rather than a risk. Net cash of about $207 million, interest coverage near 8 times, and positive free cash flow guided to $100 million to $120 million for 2026 mean Oceaneering has no solvency concern and the flexibility to invest or return capital through the cycle. Against its industrial and energy-services peers, the implied valuation is reasonable for a business with expanding margins and a visible order book. The decisive judgment is cyclical: the price is fair to modestly elevated if the offshore upcycle and the defense ramp hold, and the downside is timing, the risk of having paid up as the cycle matures.

Catalysts

The order book is the clearest forward catalyst. Oceaneering booked $854 million of total inbound orders across subsea robotics, aerospace and defense, and manufactured products, including roughly $180 million of subsea contracts through its Brazilian subsidiary with Petrobras. The conversion of that backlog into revenue, and the pace of new awards, are the direct read on whether the growth continues.

The 2026 guidance frames the expected trajectory. Management projected consolidated EBITDA of $390 million to $440 million and free cash flow of $100 million to $120 million for 2026, building on six consecutive years of EBITDA growth. Subsea robotics margins expanding toward the high 30s on ROV pricing and utilization is the segment trend most responsible for that guide, so continued pricing strength is the key operational signal.

The aerospace and defense ramp is the catalyst with the most asymmetry. The segment won the largest initial contract in the company's history, foundational to its growth plans, and execution of that award is what determines whether defense becomes a durable counterweight to the energy cycle. The external variable to monitor against all of it is offshore energy spending, which tracks oil prices and operator capital budgets, and any softening there would pressure the subsea and offshore-projects segments that still drive the bulk of revenue.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Subsea Robotics / Manufactured Products (reported)

• SLB (SLB LIMITED/NV)
• FY2025 10-K: …and the achievement of fully autonomous drilling operations. Digital Digital revenue of $2.4 billion increased 20% year on year driven by the accelerated adoption of digital technologies and higher sales of exploration data. Digital & Integration pretax operating margin of 25% increased 710 bps year on year primarily…
• FY2025 10-K: …digital transformations. These services include transition support from on-prem to cloud-based digital solutions, data clean-up and migration, workflow automation - including deployment of workflow solutions built within SLB's global network of Innovation Factori workspaces - and training to further enable customers'…
• BKR (Baker Hughes Co)
• FY2025 10-K: …and technology portfolio to focus on new energy areas, such as geothermal and CCUS; strengthening its digital architecture; and addressing key energy market themes. The OFSE segment is organized into four product lines. • Well Construction focuses on drilling and includes drilling services (directional drilling,…
• FY2025 10-K: …(subsea risers, subsea flowlines and jumpers, onshore reinforced thermoplastic pipe, and rehabilitation), and surface pressure control systems (surface trees and wellheads). In June 2025, the Company announced the creation of a joint venture with a subsidiary of Cactus, Inc. ("Cactus"), to which Baker Hughes will…
• HAL (HALLIBURTON COMPANY)
• FY2025 10-K: …margins for each operating segment over the past three years. During 2025 , we generated total company revenue of $22.2 billion , a 3% decrease from the $22.9 billion of revenue generated in 2024 with our Completion and Production (C&P) segment revenue decreasing by 4% and our Drilling and Evaluation (D&E) segment…
• FY2025 10-K: …completion tool sales in Brazil. Partially offsetting these decreases were improved activity across multiple product service lines in Brazil, and higher drilling related services in Argentina and the Caribbean. Europe/Af rica/CIS Europe/Africa/CIS revenue in 2025 was $3.4 billion , a 12% increase compared to 2024 ,…
• NOV (NOV INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …completions, and workover activity which drives demand for equipment, spare parts, service, and repair for the segment's large installed base of equipment. The segment also serves marine and offshore markets, where it designs and builds equipment for wind turbine installation and cable lay vessels, and offers heavy…
• FY2025 10-K: …pipe systems designed to convey hydrocarbon production from the wellhead to production facilities in demanding offshore conditions. Flexible pipes are highly-engineered, complex structures composed of multiple unbonded steel and composite layers, allowing them to withstand the demanding pressures and tensile loads of…
• RES (RPC, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: ​ Other (both segments) ​ $ 109,285 ​ 6.8 % ​ $ 111,842 ​ 7.9 % ​ $ 141,187 ​ 8.7 % ​ Technical Services Segment Pressure Pumping : 29.8% of 2025 total revenues. Services are provided to customers throughout Texas and the mid-continent regions of the United States, with a concentration in the Permian basin. We…
• FY2025 10-K: 8,031 ​ $ 13,592 ​ $ 81,623 Unallocated corporate expenses (5) ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ 24,771 Acquisition related employment costs ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ 20,312 Gain on disposition of assets, net ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ( 8,192 ) Operating income ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ $ 44,732 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​…
• WFRD (Weatherford International plc)
• FY2025 10-K: …develop and produce from their oil and natural gas reservoirs more efficiently. Our products and services are designed to enable our customers to increase production rates while reducing their costs of drilling and production. Reportable Segments We offer our services and technologies in relation to the well life…
• FY2025 10-K: …analyze customer requirements and provide software enabled design input from pre-job planning to installation. Completions offer customers a comprehensive portfolio of completion tools, such as safety valves, production packers, downhole reservoir monitoring, flow control, isolation packers, multistage fracturing…

Offshore Projects Group (OPG) (reported)

• HLX (Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …of which $694 million is for contracts over the next 12 months, as well as expected new contracting and the materialization of work that had been deferred from 2025. We expect to see continued strong market demand for our Robotics services, in particular our trenching and site preparation offerings. We anticipate an…
• FY2025 10-K: …Facilities. Our services are key in supporting a global energy transition by maximizing production of existing oil and gas reserves, decommissioning end-of-life oil and gas fields and supporting renewable energy developments. We maximize production of existing oil and gas reserves for our customers primarily in our…
• TDW (TIDEWATER INC)
• FY2025 10-K: . Offshore tugs are used to tow floating drilling rigs and barges; to assist in the docking of tankers; and to assist pipe laying, cable laying and construction barges. During the year ended December 31, 2025, our 17 other vessels contributed approximately 3.5% of our vessel revenue. Recent Event - Acquisition of…
• FY2025 10-K: …the perceived responsibility of the oil and gas sector for climate change; and (viii) U.S. trade policies that include substantial tariffs, causing increased market uncertainty and volatility. These factors have at various times caused or exacerbated significant swings in oil and gas pricing, which in turn has…
• XPRO (Expro Group Holdings N.V.)
• FY2025 10-K: …specific engineering costs associated with a project. We also procure products and services on behalf of our customers that are provided by third parties for which we are reimbursed with a mark-up or in connection with an integrated services contract. We also design, manufacture and sell equipment, which is typically…
• FY2025 10-K: …and expand its oil and gas production capacity to meet global demand. Activity is characterized by massive investments and a dominant role for state-owned enterprises such as Saudi Aramco, ADNOC (UAE), and QatarEnergy. While oil remains crucial, there is an ongoing emphasis on developing the region's natural gas…
• SLB (SLB LIMITED/NV)
• FY2025 10-K: …Operations and Platforms & Applications. Digital pretax operating margin expanded 557 basis points sequentially to 34%, reflecting improved profitability from strong Digital Exploration activity, robust growth in Digital Operations, and higher Platforms & Applications revenue. Reservoir Performance Reservoir…
• FY2025 10-K: …and the achievement of fully autonomous drilling operations. Digital Digital revenue of $2.4 billion increased 20% year on year driven by the accelerated adoption of digital technologies and higher sales of exploration data. Digital & Integration pretax operating margin of 25% increased 710 bps year on year primarily…
• HAL (HALLIBURTON COMPANY)
• FY2025 10-K: …products and to implement commercially competitive services in a timely manner in response to changes in the market, customer requirements, competitive pressures, developments associated with climate change concerns, and technology trends, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, our business and…
• FY2025 10-K: …modestly while global supply is projected to outpace demand in the near term, contributing to price pressure and inventory builds. At the same time, natural gas demand is forecasted to strengthen in 2026 as LNG capacity expands and consumption in key markets increases. Absent geo-political disruptions, we expect…

Integrity Management & Digital Solutions (IMDS) (reported)

• BKR (Baker Hughes Co)
• FY2025 10-K: …technical know-how, and research and development ("R&D"), with complementary expert skills that enable us to provide services, equipment and advanced solutions to a variety of industries. Technology remains a differentiator for us and is a key enabler in driving the efficiency and productivity gains our customers…
• FY2025 10-K: …relating to data privacy and security could result in damage to our reputation and our relationship with our customers, as well as proceedings or litigation by governmental agencies, customers or individuals, which could subject us to significant fines, sanctions, awards, penalties or judgments, all of which could…
• SLB (SLB LIMITED/NV)
• FY2025 10-K: …new energy systems that accelerate the energy transition. The world faces the challenge of providing secure and affordable energy to meet growing demand, while rapidly decarbonizing for a sustainable future. With nearly a century of market and technology leadership, SLB is well positioned and committed to being a…
• FY2025 10-K: …reduce cycle time and improve efficiency of workflows to allow customers to make better, faster decisions to improve their project economics and reservoir performance. • Digital Operations: Combines the strengths of SLB's oilfield services with advanced digital technologies to deliver more reliable, efficient, and…
• HAL (HALLIBURTON COMPANY)
• FY2025 10-K: …include analytics, automation, and cloud services. Our digital technologies and services, and those of our customers and suppliers, are subject to the risk of cybersecurity incidents and, given the nature of such incidents, some can remain undetected for a period of time despite efforts to detect and respond to them…
• FY2025 10-K: …and suppliers, with whom we may share data and services, to protect their digital technologies and services from cybersecurity incidents. HAL 2025 FORM 10-K | 17 Table of Contents Item 1(a) | Risk Factors If our systems, or our customers ' or suppliers ' systems, for protecting against cybersecurity incidents prove…
• WFRD (Weatherford International plc)
• FY2025 10-K: …(i) the loss of key customers of the acquired business; (ii) demands on management related to the increase in our size; (iii) the diversion of management's attention from the management of daily operations; (iv) difficulties in implementing or unanticipated costs of accounting, budgeting, reporting, internal…
• FY2025 10-K: …re-entry, fishing and well abandonment services as well as patented downhole tools, tubular-handling equipment, pressure-control equipment and drill pipe and tubulars for various types of wells. Artificial Lift provides pressure enabling methods to produce reservoir fluids from wells lacking sufficient reservoir…

Aerospace and Defense Technologies (ADTech) (reported)

• DRS (Leonardo DRS, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and power generation and management are central to these priorities. Demand for our technologies is concentrated in areas of sustained priority for the DoW, including counter‑unmanned aircraft systems ("C-UAS"), advanced infrared sensing, network computing, and electric power and propulsion for next generation navy…
• FY2025 10-K: ASC") and Integrated Mission Systems ("IMS"). For information regarding segment performance see Part II, Item 7, " Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations " in this Annual Report. Advanced Sensing and Computing Our ASC segment designs, develops and manufactures sensing and…
• KTOS (Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …property and past performance qualifications and by offering a wider range of comprehensive low-cost technology leading and proven products and solutions compared to our competitors. In regard to areas of specialization, our product and solution offerings include the manufacturing of specialized defense electronics;…
• FY2025 10-K: …the U.S. Air Force (USAF), the U.S. Navy (USN), the U.S. Army, the U.S. Marine Corps (USMC), the U.S. Space Force, and the U.S. Space Command, and others. Additionally, Kratos customers also include the Defense Innovation Unit ("DIU") (formerly the Defense Innovation Unit Experimental ("DIUx")), Defense Advanced…
• AVAV (AEROVIRONMENT, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Israeli Aircraft Industries. ​ The defense and technology markets for the C-UAS and Precision Strike products and solutions are highly competitive, evolving with rapid technological advancements and shifting customer needs. Competitors in the LMS market include Textron Inc., RTX Corporation, Lockheed Martin…
• FY2025 10-K: …which makes it difficult to evaluate our business and future prospects. ​ One of our key strategies is to invest in R&D to drive innovation and spur growth. Our innovative solutions are often sold in new and rapidly evolving markets. Accordingly, our business and future prospects may be difficult to evaluate. We…
• LHX (L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Demand We operate in highly-competitive markets that are sensitive to technological advances. Some of our competitors in each of our markets are larger than we are and can maintain higher levels of expenditures for research and development ("R&D"). We concentrate on the opportunities that we believe are compatible…
• FY2025 10-K: $23 million recognized in connection with the monetization of legacy end-of-life assets aligned with our transformation and value creation priorities and LHX NeXt driven cost savings, partially offset by unfavorable mix. AR. Our AR segment includes missile solutions with propulsion technologies for strategic defense,…
• HII (HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …backlog within Mission Technologies, as well as nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and submarine program intangible assets within Newport News, with an aggregate weighted-average useful life of 28 years based on the long life cycle of the related programs. Amortization expense for the years ended December 31, 2025,…
• FY2025 10-K: …trades workforce. Mission Technologies - The properties comprising our Mission Technologies operating segment are located throughout the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia. Our Mission Technologies headquarters are in Fairfax and McLean, Virginia. We lease and own properties related to our operations in…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.