NETSTREIT Corp. (NTST): what the price requires
At today's price, NETSTREIT Corp. (NTST) is priced for +2.5% FFO growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/NTST
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | NTST |
| Company | NETSTREIT Corp. |
| Current price | $21.59/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | reit |
| Implied FFO growth | 2.5% |
| Price-to-FFO | 19.2x |
| FFO yield | 5.2% |
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.8% cost of equity with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of equity moves the implied growth ~4.7pp.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -1.01σ |
| cohort percentile (of 88 peers) | 74 |
| sustained it ~5 years at this level | 80% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore requires assumptions beyond what those standard frames encode.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 9.63x | 2 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.57x | 2 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.64x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 1.52x | 4 | expensive |
Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 6.3%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=13)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $19.74 | 1.09x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 135.9x / 137.9x / 139.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $40.25 | 0.54x | yes | P/E 35x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 28.4x / 35.0x / 41.6x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 44x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | $10.20 | 2.12x | yes | DPS $0.86, g=0.7% (sustainable: ROE (TTM) × retention; not the terminal-growth assumption), ke=9.3% |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $16.27 | 1.33x | yes | Stage 1: 5% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $1.19 | 18.14x | yes | BV/sh $15.19, ROE (TTM) 0.7%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $0.62 | 34.81x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% (excluded from median) |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $12.62 | 1.71x | yes | Rev $0.2B, growth 20% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 8.4x / 10.4x / 12.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $13.20 | 1.64x | yes | FFO/share $1.10, growth 5% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 5y median), PEG=43.03 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | $0.44 | 49.06x | yes | BV $15.19 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 0.7% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 0.5%/yr (excluded from median) |
| Graham Number | Asset | $19.39 | 1.11x | yes | √(22.5 × FFO/share $1.10 × BVPS $15.19) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $0.01 | 2158.50x | yes | EBITDA $0.02B × sector EV/EBITDA 20.0x (excluded from median) |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.01 | 2158.50x | yes | FCF $113.7M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity (excluded from median) |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.01 | 2158.50x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.11B (FCF $0.11B − SBC $0.01B) capitalized at Kₑ (excluded from median) |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $16.22 | 1.33x | yes | FFO/share $1.10 × (8.5 + 2×4.5%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $12.48 | 1.73x | yes | Revenue $0.21B × sector P/S 6.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $7.50 | 2.88x | yes | FFO/share $1.10 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 4.5% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 5y median)) → PE 6.8x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $11.89 | 1.82x | yes | FFO/share $1.10 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | $15.62 | 1.38x | yes | FFO/share $1.10 × 14.2x P/FFO (route cohort median, n=85); FFO $0.11B (FFO incl. D&A + impairments, FY2025, companyfacts), shares 99M |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt (REIT basis) | $1.2b |
| Net debt / FFO | 11.31x |
| Fixed-charge coverage (FFO basis) | 3.1x |
| Funds from operations (trailing) | $109.2m |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 21.4% |
| Burning cash | no |
REIT basis: leverage is read against funds from operations (FFO), not depreciation-gutted operating income. The header's implied growth runs on ADJUSTED FFO — FFO minus recurring maintenance capex — so the header's multiple and this leverage ratio use bases that differ by that capex; neither substitutes for the other.
Bullet Takeaways
- NETSTREIT owns single-tenant retail properties on long net leases, where the tenant covers taxes, insurance, and upkeep, and it raised 2026 funds-from-operations guidance to $1.36 to $1.39 per share after a quarter of brisk acquisition.
- The central risk is how the growth is funded: the share count has grown more than 20% a year as the company issues equity to buy properties, and the Q1 guidance itself carries an estimated $0.03 to $0.06 per share of dilution from outstanding forward equity.
- Watch the spread between acquisition yields and the cost of that capital: Q1 deals closed at a 7.5% blended cash yield on 14.1-year leases, and the math only works while new properties yield more than the equity and debt funding them.
Bull Case
The structural advantage in net-lease real estate is not the buildings, it is the underwriting discipline and the diversification, and NETSTREIT has built its franchise around both. The portfolio is single-tenant retail let on long net leases, where the tenant bears taxes, insurance, and maintenance, so the rent the company collects flows to funds from operations with very little leakage. Crucially, the tenant base is spread wide: the 10-K reports that "there were no tenants or borrowers with rental revenue or interest income on loans receivable that exceeded 10% of total rental revenues." For a net-lease REIT, concentration is the failure mode, and NETSTREIT has engineered it out.
The sourcing strategy is where the company earns its edge. Alongside straightforward acquisitions, NETSTREIT uses a blend-and-extend approach, described in its own filing: "single-tenant commercial property with an existing short-term lease, then extend the lease term to at least ten years." That converts a shorter, riskier lease into a long-dated income stream at acquisition, which is a way of manufacturing the durable cash flows the market pays a premium for. The Q1 2026 activity shows the engine running: $239 million of gross investment closed at a 7.5% blended cash yield on a 14.1-year weighted average lease term.
The result is steady, compounding per-share cash flow. Q1 2026 AFFO of $0.34 per diluted share rose 6.3% year over year, and management raised full-year guidance to $1.36 to $1.39 per share while lifting net investment guidance to $550 million to $650 million. The dividend of $0.22 a quarter is covered by that cash flow, and the price sits near where the earnings-power methods value the company, meaning a buyer is paying roughly fair value for a growing, well-diversified income stream rather than a premium for a story.
Bear Case
The fragility in this business lives on the right side of the balance sheet, in how the growth is paid for. NETSTREIT funds its acquisitions largely with new equity, and the share count has grown more than 20% a year. Q1 2026 alone recorded $314.3 million of gross forward equity sales, and management's own AFFO guidance bakes in $0.03 to $0.06 per share of dilution from that outstanding forward equity. Net debt stands at about $1.23 billion. A REIT that grows by issuing stock and borrowing is only creating value while the yield on new properties exceeds the all-in cost of the capital funding them, and that spread is thin: Q1 deals closed at a 7.5% blended cash yield, which leaves limited cushion if either the cost of equity rises (a lower share price) or the cost of debt rises (higher rates).
That makes the model unusually sensitive to its own stock price, which is the bear's central point. When the shares trade well, equity is cheap and the acquisition machine compounds; when they trade poorly, raising equity dilutes existing holders at a discount and the growth has to slow. The strategy is self-reinforcing in both directions, and the price near $19 is below where several recent analyst targets sit, a sign the market is already discounting some of that funding risk.
The valuation methods carry a split verdict that the bear should read carefully. The earnings-power methods support the price, landing close to it, but the asset-based methods say the stock is expensive, sitting many times below the price. That gap is partly an artifact of how property depreciation gnaws at book value over time, which is why FFO is the right lens for a REIT rather than asset book value. Still, the asset-side signal is a reminder that the value here rests entirely on the income stream continuing to grow, not on a liquidation floor. If acquisition spreads compress or tenant credit deteriorates in a retail downturn, there is no cheap asset base underneath to catch the fall.
Valuation
NETSTREIT is read the way any REIT should be, on funds from operations rather than depreciation-burdened operating income, and on that basis the price looks close to fair rather than stretched. The earnings-power methods, which here means the FFO and AFFO-based lenses, land right around the price, with the central estimate sitting only slightly below it. The market is paying for the existing income stream plus modest growth, not for a speculative re-rating.
The methods split in an instructive way. While the earnings-power lens supports the price, the asset-based methods read the stock as expensive, landing far below it. That divergence is characteristic of a net-lease REIT: the company buys property at cost and depreciates it on the books, so reported asset value understates the economic value of the long-dated leases attached to those properties. This is precisely why FFO, which adds depreciation back, is the correct frame and book value is the wrong one. The pattern is a value-and-income name supported by its earnings power, not a growth bet that the static methods cannot reach.
The balance sheet is the load-bearing element here, and it should be engaged on REIT terms. Leverage is read against funds from operations, not operating income, and net debt of about $1.23 billion has to be serviced out of the rent stream. The company is not burning cash, and the dividend is covered by AFFO, but the growth is equity-funded: the share count has expanded more than 20% a year and the 2026 guidance explicitly carries several cents of forward-equity dilution. The decisive question for value is the spread between the roughly 7.5% yields the company is buying at and the cost of the capital it raises to buy them. As long as that spread holds, per-share FFO compounds; if it compresses, the equity-funded model stops adding value and the price has only its current income to stand on.
Catalysts
The Q1 2026 report in late April was a clear positive on the operating numbers. AFFO came in at $0.34 per diluted share, up 6.3% year over year, and management raised full-year 2026 AFFO guidance to $1.36 to $1.39 per share while lifting net investment activity guidance to $550 million to $650 million. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share. Investment activity was the standout: $239 million of gross deals closed at a 7.5% blended cash yield on a 14.1-year weighted average lease term, evidence the acquisition pipeline is both deep and disciplined.
The funding mechanics are the catalyst to watch alongside the deal flow. The same quarter booked $314.3 million of gross forward equity sales, and management flagged that the AFFO guidance includes $0.03 to $0.06 of dilution from that outstanding forward equity. The pace of settling that forward equity, and the yields the company can keep buying at, will determine whether the raised guidance proves conservative or stretched.
Analyst sentiment moved up after the print. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $24 from $22 with an Overweight rating, Stifel lifted its target to $22.25 from $21 at Buy, and Jefferies assumed coverage with a Buy and a $23 target, all sitting above the recent price near $19. The next earnings print and any move in interest rates are the events most likely to reprice the stock, since both feed directly into the acquisition spread the whole model depends on.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Net-lease real estate (REIT) (reported)
- O (REALTY INCOME CORP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ADC (Agree Realty Corporation)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- EPRT (Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- WPC (W. P. Carey Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- FCPT (Four Corners Property Trust, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- GTY (GETTY REALTY CORP.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- BNL (BROADSTONE NET LEASE, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- MAC (MACERICH CO)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
NETSTREIT Q1 2026 earnings release, April 2026 · NETSTREIT Q1 2026 earnings call, April 2026 · analyst notes via Benzinga and Yahoo Finance, April 2026