NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION (NJR): what the price assumes

boothcheck covers NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION (NJR) but does not put one priced-in number on it: here the defensible answer is the evidence rather than a point estimate. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Exported: 2026-08-31 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/NJR

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The price sits below what even a 5%/yr operating-profit decline would warrant; the inversion reports a bound, not a solved growth path.

Solve inputs: computed at a 6.1% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings, Relative, Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=14)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• New Jersey Resources is anchored by its regulated gas utility, New Jersey Natural Gas, whose earnings grow with infrastructure investment, sitting alongside a more volatile energy-logistics and clean-energy business.
• The biggest swing factor is that second business: the recent guidance raises were driven by the energy-services and logistics arm outperforming, which is a genuine tailwind but a less predictable one than the regulated utility, so the earnings beat carries more variability than a pure utility would.
• Watch the company's ability to fund its $4.8 to $5.2 billion capital plan without issuing large blocks of new stock, which management has flagged as a sign of its cash-generating strength.

Bull Case

New Jersey Resources is a mature utility holding company, and reading it correctly means separating its two engines. The first is New Jersey Natural Gas, a regulated gas distributor whose earnings grow the way every regulated utility's do: by investing in pipes and infrastructure on which the regulator allows a return. That is the steady, predictable base. The second is a collection of energy-logistics, storage, and clean-energy businesses that earn higher but lumpier returns. The bull case is that the regulated base provides the floor while the second engine provides the upside, and lately the upside has been substantial.

The recent results show both engines running. Fiscal second-quarter net financial earnings, the company's preferred measure, came in at $221.5 million, or $2.20 per share, well ahead of the prior year and above expectations, on revenue of $939.4 million. On the strength of that, management raised its full-year net financial earnings guidance to a range of $3.48 to $3.63 per share, the second increase of the year, citing continued outperformance in the energy-services business. A company raising guidance twice in one year is one whose plan is exceeding its own expectations, not straining to meet them.

The capital-allocation story is the quiet strength. Management has emphasized that it can fund a $4.8 to $5.2 billion capital plan without issuing large blocks of new equity, while maintaining its credit metrics and growing the dividend. For a utility, avoiding block equity issuance matters because it means the growth is self-funded from cash flow and modest financing rather than diluting existing holders to pay for the build. The clean-energy ventures add a longer-dated growth option as renewable adoption expands. For a buyer at today's price, the bull case is a regulated utility base plus an outperforming logistics arm, funding its own growth and trading in the lower half of its peer multiple range, which is an attractive combination of stability and upside.

Bear Case

The external variable with the most leverage over New Jersey Resources is the one that also makes it harder to value: the energy-services and logistics business that drove the recent beats. Unlike the regulated utility, whose returns are set by a regulator and move slowly, the logistics arm earns its money from trading gas storage and transportation capacity, and those earnings swing with natural-gas price spreads, weather, and market volatility. The same outperformance that lifted guidance twice this year can reverse when the spreads narrow. A bull frames the energy-services strength as proof of skill; a bear notes that a guidance raise built on a volatile segment is a less durable foundation than one built on the regulated base, and the market should pay less for earnings it cannot count on repeating.

The regulated side carries the standard utility sensitivities, chiefly interest rates and the regulatory relationship. A gas distributor funds a large capital program with debt, and New Jersey Resources carries net debt around $3.3 billion, roughly six times trailing operating income, with interest coverage near four times. That is a workable structure for a regulated business, but it is rate-sensitive in two directions: higher rates raise the cost of financing the $4.8 to $5.2 billion capital plan, and they raise the yield investors demand from a dividend stock, pressuring the share price. The plan also depends on the New Jersey regulator continuing to grant timely recovery of infrastructure spending; any souring of that relationship would slow the rate-base growth the utility leans on.

The valuation leaves a modest margin. The relative and forward-growth methods support the price, but the earnings-power method reads it as expensive, near 1.6 times its estimate, because it anchors on the steadier regulated earnings rather than the elevated recent results. Reading the price backward locates the priced-in premium in the storage-and-transportation segment, asking it to hold growth at its self-funding ceiling for about five years, a read the framework itself flags as low-confidence because the segment's small earnings base makes it sensitive to assumptions. The bear case is that the price extrapolates the recent energy-services strength further than a volatile business warrants, and that the regulated base alone would not support today's level if the logistics tailwind fades.

Valuation

The priced-in premium sits in the storage-and-transportation segment, and naming where it lives matters more here than usual. Reading the price backward, the market is paying for that segment to hold operating growth at its self-funding ceiling for about five years. The framework reads that as within range of what comparable businesses have sustained, but it attaches low confidence to the read, because the segment's earnings base is small enough that the inversion is sensitive to its assumptions. The honest takeaway is that the price embeds a moderate growth expectation concentrated in the company's higher-return, more volatile arm, not in the regulated utility.

The methods divide along the line between the two businesses. The earnings-power method reads it as expensive, near 1.6 times its estimate, because it anchors on the steadier, lower trailing earnings rather than the elevated recent results from energy services. That gap is the valuation tension in miniature: the price looks reasonable if you credit the logistics outperformance continuing, and rich if you value the company on its regulated earnings alone. For a holding company whose recent beats came from the volatile segment, the earnings-power caution deserves weight.

Solvency frames the downside without dominating it. Net debt of about $3.3 billion is roughly six times trailing operating income, with interest coverage near four times, a serviceable structure for a regulated utility with predictable cash flows. The more reassuring fact is management's stated ability to fund the $4.8 to $5.2 billion capital plan without large equity issuance, which protects holders from dilution while the build proceeds. The decisive variable is the durability of the energy-services earnings: if the logistics arm keeps performing, the price is fair and self-funded growth compounds; if those earnings normalize, the regulated base has to carry a valuation the earnings-power method already calls full.

Catalysts

The guidance raises are the catalyst that has been reshaping the story. New Jersey Resources lifted its full-year net financial earnings guidance to $3.48 to $3.63 per share, the second increase of the fiscal year after a $0.25 raise in February, driven by continued outperformance in its energy-services business. Whether that segment sustains the strength through the rest of the year, or normalizes, is the swing factor for whether the company lands at the top or bottom of its raised range.

The recent quarter set the pace. Fiscal second-quarter net financial earnings reached $221.5 million, or $2.20 per share, on revenue of $939.4 million, both well ahead of expectations. The regulated utility provides the steady base under those results, and the cadence of its infrastructure investment and any rate proceedings before the New Jersey regulator are the milestones that determine the rate-base growth.

The capital plan and dividend are the longer threads. Management has committed to funding a $4.8 to $5.2 billion capital plan while maintaining credit metrics, growing the dividend, and avoiding large equity issuance, with its clean-energy ventures positioned for longer-term growth as renewable adoption expands. How the company finances that plan, and whether it keeps growing the dividend without diluting holders, are the catalysts income investors should follow.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Natural Gas Distribution (NJNG) / Storage & Transportation (S&T) (reported)

• ATO (ATMOS ENERGY CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …3.4 million residential, commercial, public-authority, and industrial customers through our six regulated distribution divisions in the service areas described below: Division Service Area Atmos Energy Colorado-Kansas Division Colorado, Kansas Atmos Energy Kentucky/Mid-States Division Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia…
• FY2025 10-K: …load and peaking agreements, coupled with the withdrawal of gas held in storage, allows us the flexibility to adjust to changes in weather, which minimizes our need to enter into long-term firm commitments. We estimate our peak-day availability of natural gas supply to be approximately 5.4 Bcf. The peak-day demand…
• NI (NISOURCE INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Center, IN Natural Gas 7,240,000 Rolling Prairie LNG Rolling Prairie, IN Liquified Natural Gas 4,000,000 Total Capacities 11,240,000 Competition. Similar to the Columbia Operations segment, NIPSCO Gas operates in an open and competitive market which allows retail customers to purchase gas directly from producers and…
• FY2025 10-K: …customers participated in such programs. We compete with (i) investor-owned, municipal, and cooperative electric utilities throughout our service areas, (ii) other regulated and unregulated natural gas intra and interstate pipelines and (iii) other alternate fuels, such as propane and fuel oil. We continue to be a…
• SWX (Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: 2025 vs. 2024 Contribution to consolidated net income from natural gas distribution operations increased $38.2 million between 2025 and 2024 consistent with the Natural Gas Distribution segment except for: • $10.2 million higher Income tax expense consistent with the Natural Gas Distribution segment explanation…
• FY2025 10-K: …to inject or withdraw from this interruptible storage, which consequently limits Southwest Gas' use of this interruptible storage capacity. As such, this storage provides limited operational flexibility to adjust daily flowing supplies to meet demand. For the Arizona rate jurisdiction, Southwest Gas operate s a…
• SR (Spire Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …from gas sales and transportation services on an accrual basis that includes estimated amounts for gas delivered but not yet billed. The accruals for unbilled revenues are reversed in the subsequent accounting period when meters are actually read and customers are billed. Spire Alabama records natural gas…
• FY2025 10-K: …disruption in interstate natural gas pipelines' transmission and storage capacity were to occur during periods of heavy demand, the Utilities' financial results could be adversely impacted. Spire Marketing's ability to deliver natural gas to its customers is contingent upon the performance of its suppliers and…

Clean Energy Ventures (CEV) (reported)

• CWEN (Clearway Energy, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Notes to Condensed Financial Statements Note 1 - Background and Basis of Presentation Background Clearway Energy, Inc., together with its consolidated subsidiaries, or the Company, is a publicly-traded energy infrastructure investor with a focus on investments in clean energy and owner of modern, sustainable and…
• FY2025 10-K: …Standards RTO Regional Transmission Organization SCE Southern California Edison SDG&E San Diego Gas & Electric SEC U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Senior Notes Collectively, the 2028 Senior Notes, the 2031 Senior Notes, the 2032 Senior Notes and the 2034 Senior Notes SO 2 Sulfur Dioxide SOFR Secured Overnight…
• ORA (ORMAT TECHNOLOGIES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Ormat New Ventures is the Company's strategic corporate venture capital platform. It was established to support Ormat's long-term growth strategy by investing in early-stage energy and climate technology companies whose innovations may complement the Company's core businesses and contribute to future development…
• FY2025 10-K: …parties. We primarily manufacture products to fulfill customer orders, though we also produce inventory for future projects, whether owned by us or by third parties. Power Units for Geothermal Power Plants We design, manufacture and sell power units for geothermal electricity generation, referred to as OECs. Our…
• BEPC (BROOKFIELD RENEWABLE CORPORATION)
• FY2025 20-F: …into our group's pre-acquisition due diligence, supply chain due diligence, project development, construction, operation and decommissioning. Our group tailors sustainability due diligence, leveraging our group's investment and operating expertise and using guidance from the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board.…
• FY2025 20-F: …driven by ambitious sustainability targets and as potential customers face pressure to decarbonize through clean power, electrification and reduced energy consumption. Europe Our Spanish business includes 350 MW of CSP capacity. The principal revenues generated by our Spanish business' CSP assets in Spain are…
• AQN (ALGONQUIN POWER & UTILITIES CORP.)
• FY2025 40-F: 31, 2025, the commodity volume, in dekatherms, associated with the above derivative contracts is 1,523,127 . The accounting for these derivative instruments is subject to guidance for rate-regulated enterprises. Therefore, the fair value of these derivatives is recorded as current or long-term assets and liabilities,…
• FY2025 40-F: …financial instruments not designated as hedges consist of the following: (millions of U.S. dollars) 2025 2024 Amortization of cash flow hedge $ ( 5.0 ) $ ( 2.5 ) Unrealized gain on commodity contracts 6.5 3.3 Gain on derivative financial instruments $ 1.5 $ 0.8 (c) Supplier financing programs In the normal course of…

Energy Services (ES) (reported)

• WMB (WILLIAMS COMPANIES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:EnergyCommoditiesAndServiceMember us-gaap:ReportableSegmentAggregationBeforeOtherOperatingSegmentMember wmb:RealizedGainLossMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000107263 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember us-gaap:EnergyCommoditiesAndServiceMember wmb:TransmissionPowerGulfMember wmb:UnrealizedGainLossMember 2025-01-01…
• FY2025 10-K: …wmb:NortheastGPMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000107263 wmb:InternalCustomerMember us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember us-gaap:ServiceMember wmb:WestMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000107263 wmb:InternalCustomerMember us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember us-gaap:ServiceMember wmb:GasNGLMarketingServicesMember 2023-01-01…
• KMI (KINDER MORGAN, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …per volume, where we apply revenue levelization and recognize revenue evenly over the contract term. Contract liabilities represent payments received for performance obligations which have not been fulfilled and primarily relate to (i) advanced payments for capital improvements, which we recognize as revenue ratably…
• FY2025 10-K: …them do, of their timing or what impact they will have on our results of operations or financial condition. Because of these uncertainties, you should not put undue reliance on any of our forward-looking statements. 3 Additional discussion of factors that may affect our forward-looking statements appear elsewhere in…
• OKE (ONEOK INC /NEW/)
• FY2025 10-K: …revenues, as described below: Commodity Sales (all segments) - We contract to deliver residue natural gas, unfractionated NGLs and/or Purity NGLs, Refined Products, condensate and crude oil to customers at a specified delivery point. Our sales agreements may be daily or longer-term contracts for a specified volume.…
• FY2025 10-K: …segment ) - We purchase raw natural gas and charge contractual fees for providing midstream services, which include gathering, treating, compressing and processing the producer's natural gas. After performing these services, we sell the commodities and return a portion of the commodity sales proceeds to the producer…
• ET (ENERGY TRANSFER LP)
• FY2025 10-K: …103 Table of Contents Index to Financial Statements • provide funds for distributions to Unitholders and its General Partner in respect of any one or more of the next four quarters. Recent Sales of Unregistered Securities None. Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities None. Securities Authorized for Issuance Under…
• FY2025 10-K: …of risks, uncertainties and assumptions, see "Item 1A. Risk Factors" included in this annual report. 5 Table of Contents Index to Financial Statements PART I ITEM 1. BUSINESS Overview Energy Transfer LP is a Delaware limited partnership with common units publicly traded on the NYSE under the ticker symbol "ET."…
• TRGP (TARGA RESOURCES CORP.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Services from June 1999 to January 2002 and as Executive Vice President of Spark Energy from April 2007 to November 2009. He previously served as a senior executive at several private companies and as an advisor to a private equity firm, providing operational and strategic guidance. Mr. Davis also serves as a…
• FY2025 10-K: …served as a director of the Company since its formation in October 2005. He also served as a director of the General Partner between March 2016 and May 2021 and a director of an affiliate of the Company during 2004 and 2005. Mr. Crisp was President and Chief Executive Officer of Coral Energy, LLC, a subsidiary of…
• EPD (ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS PARTNERS L.P.)
• FY2025 10-K: …from an economic perspective. Enterprise GP, which owns a non-economic general partner interest in us, manages our Partnership. We conduct substantially all of our business operations through EPO and its consolidated subsidiaries. Our fully integrated, midstream energy asset network (or "value chain") links producers…
• FY2025 10-K: …2 of this annual report. Like many publicly traded partnerships, we have no employees. All of our management, administrative and operating functions are performed by employees of EPCO pursuant to an administrative services agreement (the "ASA") or by other service providers. 64 Table of Contents Each of our business…
• WKC (World Kinect Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …lower-carbon fuels such as sustainable aviation fuel and are working to expand and develop our supply chain to meet customer demand. Land Segment In our land segment, we sell liquid fuels, natural gas, and related products and services to commercial, industrial, and government customers, as well as retail fuel…
• FY2025 10-K: …The following charts provide information about our global workforce as of December 31, 2025: Health and Safety As a global energy management company, we continually seek to minimize the impact of our operations and ensure the health and safety of our employees, contractors, customers, suppliers and the communities in…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.