National Bank Holdings Corp (NBHC): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $41.22, National Bank Holdings Corp (NBHC) is priced for 10.1% return on equity. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.
Generated: 2026-08-30 · Exported: 2026-08-31 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/NBHC
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | NBHC |
| Company | National Bank Holdings Corp |
| Current price | $41.22/sh |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | financials |
| Return on equity needed | 10.1% |
| Return on equity now | 7.8% |
| ROE gap | +2.3pp |
| Price-to-book | 1.10x |
Solve inputs: computed at a 9.5% cost of equity with 4% terminal growth over a 10-year stage, on common book equity (FY2026).
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | +0.96σ |
| cohort percentile (of 122 peers) | 21 |
| sustained it ~10 years at this level | 76% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore sits beyond what those standard frames encode.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.72x | 3 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.60x | 1 | expensive |
| Relative | — | 0 | — |
| Growth | 3.75x | 2 | expensive |
Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=6)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Bank Fair Value (P/TBV) | — | $12.01 | 3.43x | yes | TBVPS $25.80 × 0.47x (ROE (TTM) 5.9% / CoE 9.3%, g=3.8% (sustainable: 65% retention × ROE, 5% cap; not the terminal-growth assumption), credit 1.14% allowance/loans → ×0.93) |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | — | — | no | P/E 12.59x (blended: static sector reference 10x + trailing (TTM) 19x), scenarios: 10.5x / 12.6x / 14.7x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA N/Ax |
| Simple DDM | Growth | $41.32 | 1.00x | yes | DPS $1.30, g=5.9% (sustainable: ROE (TTM) × retention; not the terminal-growth assumption), ke=9.3% |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $6.34 | 6.50x | yes | Stage 1: -24% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $23.93 | 1.72x | yes | BV/sh $37.47, ROE (TTM) 5.9%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $18.57 | 2.22x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | — | — | no | Rev $0.4B, growth 12% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 3.9x / 4.7x / 5.5x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Growth-Adjusted P/E | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Graham Number | Asset | $44.80 | 0.92x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $2.38 × BVPS $37.47) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | — | — | no | EPS $2.38 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $25.73 | 1.60x | yes | EPS $2.38 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
The issuer is a funded financial business. Debt, interest, and cash flows are operating inputs, so industrial EV, net-debt, WACC, and free-cash-flow lenses do not apply; value the common-equity claim with book, earnings, capital, and payout economics.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Community banking | financial | equity | 0.4B reported-currency | — | withheld | unresolved standalone equity facts required |
No unit-level total common-equity value is stated. Each financial unit requires supported standalone common equity, normalized earnings, capital adequacy, and payout capacity. Consolidated debt, interest, and cash are operating balances, not an enterprise-to-equity bridge; company-level book, earnings, capital, and payout lenses remain the coherent cross-checks.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 10.2% |
Deposit/float-funded balance sheet: debt is funding, not corporate leverage, and GAAP operating cash flow follows loan flows. Net-debt, interest-coverage, and cash-burn lenses do not apply. The solvency frame for a financial is regulatory capital and payout capacity (CET1, stress buffer, dividends plus buybacks against earnings).
Bullet Takeaways
National Bank Holdings is a Colorado-based regional bank, and a bank is worth the return it earns on its capital, so the price is read off book value rather than an operating multiple. At $42.67 the stock trades around 1.2x book, which implies the bank sustains a return on equity near 10.7%, against a recent run rate closer to 7.9% on the standard measure.
That gap is the whole story. The most recent quarter showed adjusted return on tangible common equity of 11.79% and a net interest margin of 4.06%, both well above the implied bar, helped by the just-closed Vista acquisition and record loan originations. The question is whether that elevated profitability holds or fades back toward the lower trailing level.
Capital allocation is active and shareholder-friendly: a new $100 million buyback authorization, $16.1 million repurchased in the quarter, and a dividend raised 3% to $0.32. The bank is deploying capital into both M&A and its own shares while loans grow at a double-digit annualized pace.
Bull Case
The cleanest way into the bull case is how the bank deploys its capital, because it signals where management sees value. In the most recent quarter National Bank Holdings authorized a $100 million share buyback and executed $16.1 million of it, raised the quarterly dividend 3% to $0.32, and closed the Vista acquisition on January 7, 2026, which added $1.9 billion in loans and $2.2 billion in deposits. A bank buying its own stock, lifting the payout, and completing a sizable deal in the same quarter is telling you management believes both the shares and the franchise are worth more than the market is paying, and it is putting capital behind all three uses at once.
The operating results support that confidence. Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.72 on net income of $20.8 million, adjusted return on tangible common equity reached 11.79%, and net interest margin expanded 17 basis points to 4.06%. The bank also posted record quarterly loan originations of $805 million, an annualized loan-growth pace of about 12.4%. Earning an 11.79% adjusted return on tangible equity while growing the loan book at double digits is the combination that justifies trading above book value, and it sits comfortably above the roughly 10.7% return the current price implies.
The deposit base is the structural advantage underneath the margin. The filing shows transaction deposits at 86.1% of total deposits at year-end 2025, and the cost of deposits improved 21 basis points to 2.02% over the year through disciplined pricing as rates fell (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001104659-26-019119). A funding base that heavy in low-cost transaction accounts is what lets a regional bank hold a 4% net interest margin, and it is the asset that makes the higher implied ROE achievable rather than aspirational.
Bear Case
The advantage that could be chipped away is the low-cost deposit franchise, and the data shows the first signs of pressure. The filing reports the mix of transaction deposits to total deposits slipped to 86.1% at year-end 2025 from 87.6% a year earlier (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001104659-26-019119). That is a small move, but the direction matters: as customers rotate from non-interest-bearing accounts into higher-yielding ones, the funding cost advantage that supports a 4% margin erodes at the edges. A bank's moat is its deposit base, and a deposit base that is gradually getting more expensive is a moat under slow attrition.
The second concern is the gap between the recent ROE and the longer trailing figure. The price implies a sustained return on equity near 10.7%, the latest quarter delivered an adjusted return on tangible common equity of 11.79%, but the broader trailing return has been closer to 7.9%, and the filing's own multi-year return figures swing across a wide range from the high single digits into the high teens. The elevated current profitability is partly the Vista acquisition and a record origination quarter, both of which can normalize. If the run rate settles back toward the lower end of that range, the stock is paying above book for a return that does not clear its cost of equity.
The acquisition itself is the integration risk. Vista added $1.9 billion of loans and $2.2 billion of deposits essentially overnight, and acquired loan books carry credit and integration uncertainty that does not show up until later quarters. The buyback was also reported by some observers as paused or reduced in the period, a sign management is balancing capital return against the need to absorb the deal and grow the balance sheet. The bear case is not a blow-up, it is mean reversion: a regional bank whose recent results flatter a longer-run return that the price has already extrapolated.
Valuation
A bank is valued on the return it earns on its capital, so the price is read off price-to-book, not an operating multiple. At today's $42.67 (June 27, 2026) the market is paying about 1.2x book and assuming the bank sustains a return on equity near 10.7%, against a recent run rate of about 7.9% on the standard measure. That solve runs at a cost of equity near 9.8% with 4% terminal growth on common book equity, and each point of cost of equity moves the implied ROE by roughly 1.2 points. Keep these figures approximate; they are a single inversion under fixed assumptions.
The assumption sits within range. The implied return is within reach of what the bank has earned in its better years, the price-to-book is in the lower half of the peer group, and the most recent quarter's adjusted return on tangible common equity of 11.79% actually exceeds the implied bar. Historically about 74% of firms earning this return sustained it for roughly a decade, which is a relatively favorable base rate. The read is a bank priced for a return it can plausibly deliver, not a stretch.
The tension the methods flag is the spread between the recent and the trailing return. The valuation case therefore turns on durability: if the post-Vista origination strength and the 4% margin hold, 1.2x book is reasonable; if the return fades toward the high single digits, the price is paying for a profitability the bank is not consistently producing.
Catalysts
The most recent event was the Q1 2026 report (April 2026): adjusted diluted EPS of $0.72, net income of $20.8 million, adjusted return on tangible common equity of 11.79%, and net interest margin of 4.06%, up 17 basis points from the prior quarter. The bank posted record quarterly loan originations of $805 million, an annualized loan-growth pace of about 12.4%. Some coverage framed the quarter as an earnings miss against expectations alongside a buyback pause, so the market reaction was mixed despite the strong margin and origination figures.
The defining recent transaction was the Vista acquisition, which closed January 7, 2026 and added $1.9 billion in loans and $2.2 billion in deposits. Integration of that book is the near-term operational catalyst: deposit retention, credit performance on the acquired loans, and cost synergies will show up over the next few quarters and determine whether the deal lifts or dilutes the return on equity.
Capital actions are the other catalyst stream: a $100 million buyback authorization with $16.1 million executed, and a dividend raised 3% to $0.32. The watch items are deposit-cost trends as the rate cycle evolves, the pace of buyback execution against the need to fund balance-sheet growth, and whether the post-deal margin holds near 4%. Continued double-digit loan growth with a stable margin would confirm the bull read; a step-down in either would point toward mean reversion. Sources: National Bank Holdings Q1 2026 results and earnings coverage (stocktitan.net; globenewswire.com; fool.com; simplywall.st), April 2026.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Community banking (reported)
- STEL (Stellar Bancorp, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …community banking combined with the products, efficiencies and scale associated with larger banks. We are able to establish and foster strong relationships with customers through superior service. We operate full-service banking centers and employ experienced bankers that are able to respond to customer needs quickly…
- FY2025 10-K: …smaller banks. We believe that our scalable operating platform will effectively support growth, resulting in greater efficiency and enhanced profitability as we grow. • Community-focused, full-service customer relationships -We believe that our community banking strategy facilitates strong relationships with our…
- EFSC (ENTERPRISE FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP)
- FY2025 10-K: …and short-term disability for all full-time associates. Our wellness program offers financial rewards to associates who adopt healthy habits and participate in wellness education and health screenings. Annual health screenings for associates and spouses/domestic partners enrolled in our medical plans are provided to…
- FY2025 10-K: Acceleration Program - This trainee program introduces participants to the foundations of credit and commercial banking, while allowing them to experience a wide range of assignments by rotating through the various product partners and operational areas of the Company. Upon successful completion of the program, the…
- BY (BYLINE BANCORP, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …to consumers who generally live or work near our branches. We also offer online account opening to consumer and business customers through our website and provide trust and wealth management services to our customers. In addition to our traditional commercial banking business, we provide small ticket equipment…
- FY2025 10-K: …of SBA and USDA loans into the secondary market while retaining the non-guaranteed portion of the loan and the servicing rights. This allows us to realize one time gain on sale income along with a recurring servicing and interest revenue stream. In addition to the business development officers who we rely on to…
- FSUN (FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORP)
- FY2025 10-K: …school and municipal based customers. Consumer Loans We offer a variety of consumer loans, such as installment loans to individuals for personal, family and household purposes, including car, boat and other recreational vehicle loans. Our consumer loans typically are part of an overall client relationship designed to…
- FY2025 10-K: …communities has led to a high-quality core deposit franchise focused in higher growth metropolitan markets as well as stable, non-metropolitan markets that provides a low-cost funding base for our lending opportunities. In addition, our mortgage, wealth management, private banking and treasury management offerings…
- SRCE (1st Source Corp)
- FY2025 10-K: …agricultural, and real estate loans primarily to privately owned businesses to finance industrial and commercial properties, equipment, inventories and accounts receivable, acquisitions and for general corporate purposes. Other business services include commercial leasing, treasury management services, payment…
- FY2025 10-K: $57.00 million of trust preferred securities and lending the proceeds to 1st Source. We guarantee, on a limited basis, payments of distributions on the trust preferred securities and payments on redemption of the trust preferred securities. COMPETITION We compete with other banks, some of which are affiliated with…
- TCBK (TriCo Bancshares)
- FY2025 10-K: …$9.8 billion at December 31, 2025. Based in Chico, California, the Bank offers an extensive and competitive breadth of consumer, small business and commercial banking services through its network of stand-alone and in-store branches in communities throughout California. In addition to its California community bank…
- FY2025 10-K: …and approximately 4,500 of those hours were for the benefit of community development efforts to support programs and services to low- or moderate-income communities. We strive to have a workforce that reflects the communities we serve and continue to promote diversity in leadership roles. We are dedicated to…
- FULT (FULTON FINANCIAL CORP)
- FY2025 10-K: …expressed concerns with institutions that ease commercial real estate underwriting standards and have directed financial institutions to maintain underwriting discipline and exercise risk management practices to identify, measure and monitor lending risks. The agencies have also issued guidance that requires a…
- FY2025 10-K: …by our website is not a part of this 2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K. Banking and Financial Services Through our banking subsidiary, Fulton Bank, the Corporation delivers financial services primarily within our five-state market area, comprised of Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey and Virginia, in a…
- BANR (Banner Corporation)
- FY2025 10-K: …client relationships and increase our market presence, while allowing us to better serve existing and future clients. We believe our branch network, broad product line and heightened brand awareness have created a franchise that is well positioned for growth and successful execution of our super community bank model.…
- FY2025 10-K: …sector entities in its primary market areas. The Bank's primary business is that of traditional banking institutions - accepting deposits and originating loans in locations surrounding our offices in Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Utah and Nevada. The Bank is also an active participant in secondary loan…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.