NCR ATLEOS CORPORATION (NATL): what the price assumes
boothcheck covers NCR ATLEOS CORPORATION (NATL) but does not put one priced-in number on it: here the defensible answer is the evidence rather than a point estimate. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.
Generated: 2026-08-30 · Exported: 2026-08-31 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/NATL
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | NATL |
| Company | NCR ATLEOS CORPORATION |
| Current price | $46.26/sh |
| Composition | Product revenue 24% / Service revenue 76% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (value-band context) | 8.0% |
| Operating margin today | 11.5% |
| Margin compression (value-band) | -3.5pp |
| Multiple paid | 12x operating income |
The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.
The price sits below what even a 5%/yr operating-profit decline would warrant; the inversion reports a bound, not a solved growth path.
Solve inputs: computed at a 7.4% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.
How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -1.11σ |
| cohort percentile (of 188 peers) | 9 |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value, while asset-based lands below the price. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.61x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.23x | 3 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.50x | 2 | justifies |
| Growth | 1.19x | 2 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Earnings, Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 5.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=12)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $45.49 | 1.02x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 8.3x / 10.3x / 12.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | — | — | no | P/E 28x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 23.6x / 28.0x / 32.4x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 20x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $28.67 | 1.61x | yes | BV/sh $6.28, ROE (TTM) 42.2%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $69.46 | 0.67x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $33.93 | 1.36x | yes | Rev $4.4B, growth 4% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 0.7x / 0.8x / 0.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $90.30 | 0.51x | yes | EPS $2.58, growth 35% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.50 (Undervalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $37.56 | 1.23x | yes | Normalized EBIT (4y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.42B × (1−28%) / WACC 5.7% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $45.67 | 1.01x | yes | BV $6.28 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 42.2% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $19.09 | 2.42x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $2.58 × BVPS $6.28) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | EBITDA $0.58B × sector EV/EBITDA 20.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.01 | 4626.00x | yes | FCF $159.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity (excluded from median) |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.01 | 4626.00x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.13B (FCF $0.16B − SBC $0.03B) capitalized at Kₑ (excluded from median) |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $83.25 | 0.56x | yes | EPS $2.58 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $4.19 | 11.04x | yes | BV $6.28 × (ROIC 3.8% / WACC 5.7%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | — | — | no | Revenue $4.42B × sector P/S 6.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $96.75 | 0.48x | yes | EPS $2.58 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $27.89 | 1.66x | yes | EPS $2.58 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Self-Service Banking | operating | enterprise | $2.9b | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
| Network | operating | enterprise | $1.3b | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
| Telecommunications & Technology (T&T) | operating | enterprise | $168.0m | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $2.4b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 6.51x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 4.70x |
| Interest coverage | 2.0x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 1.9% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
NCR Atleos is the ATM and self-service banking company spun out of NCR, and the dominant fact today is that it has agreed to be acquired by Brink's for $30.00 in cash plus 0.1574 Brink's shares per Atleos share, a deal valued around $6.6 billion and expected to close in early 2027. At $43.69 the stock now trades largely as a function of that consideration and the odds the deal closes, not as a standalone going concern.
On the standalone numbers the price pays about 12x company-wide operating income, low enough to sit below what even a 5%-per-year operating-profit decline would justify. Most valuation families read within range, with only the earnings-power frame calling it expensive, so the standalone business was already priced cheaply before the bid.
The one number that complicates everything is leverage. The company carries net debt around $2.36 billion against trailing operating income near $469 million, with interest coverage of about 1.8x. That debt load is why a cash-and-stock takeout matters so much, and why deal-break risk is the central question rather than a footnote.
Bull Case
Start with how far the price sits from the methods, because it explains why a buyer stepped in. A business priced at roughly 12x operating income, below what even a modest profit decline would warrant, was a classic case of the market discounting a cheap, cash-generative franchise for its leverage. That gap between a low price and a defensible business is exactly what an acquirer monetizes, and Brink's agreed to pay $30.00 in cash plus 0.1574 of its own shares per Atleos share, a transaction worth about $6.6 billion.
The underlying business gives the bid its logic. Atleos runs leading self-service banking operations through ATMs supported by a shared set of tools, systems, and platforms, alongside a network business and a telecommunications and technology segment serving enterprise clients (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001628280-26-012576). Service revenue is about 76% of the mix, and in the most recent quarter recurring revenue was around 72% of a top line that grew 7% to $1.04 billion. Self-Service Banking revenue grew about 12%, led by roughly 30% growth in ATM-as-a-Service. Recurring, contracted revenue at that scale is what makes the cash flows predictable enough for a leveraged buyer to underwrite.
For a holder today, the bull case is the merger spread itself. The stock trades below the headline deal value, so if the transaction closes on the announced terms the cash component alone delivers a defined floor and the Brink's share component adds upside tied to the combined company. The deal converts a leveraged, cheaply priced standalone into a claim with a fixed cash leg and a strategic acquirer motivated to complete, which is a different risk profile from owning the equity outright and waiting for the multiple to re-rate on its own.
Bear Case
The honest bear observation is that the price no longer reflects the business, it reflects a deal that has not closed, and the gap between the $43.69 quote and the headline consideration is the market's estimate of everything that can still go wrong. The Brink's acquisition is subject to shareholder approvals at both companies, antitrust waiting periods, and a range of domestic and foreign regulatory and money-transmitter clearances, with completion not expected until early 2027. That is a long window and a wide set of conditions. If any of them fail, the stock reprices to the standalone, and the standalone is a leveraged business.
That leverage is the fundamentals disconnect underneath the spread. Atleos carries net debt of roughly $2.36 billion against trailing operating income near $469 million, with interest coverage of only about 1.8x, and in the most recent quarter adjusted free cash flow on an unrestricted basis was negative and operating cash flow was a small outflow. A business that converts a single-digit share of its operating income into interest coverage that thin has little room for error, and the company has even sought bondholder consent tied to the merger terms. A standalone Atleos without a buyer is a deleveraging story with limited margin for a demand stumble.
The earnings-power frame already flags the tension. Among the valuation families it is the one calling the price expensive, which is the methods' way of saying the current profit base does not comfortably support the quote without the deal premium. So the bear case is specific: the downside is not a slow erosion, it is a binary. Hold the stock and the central question is deal completion, not next quarter's ATMaaS growth. If the merger breaks, a cheap-looking multiple becomes a leveraged orphan, and the very factors that made the company an attractive target, predictable cash flows pledged against $2.8 billion of gross debt, become the constraint.
Valuation
On a standalone basis the market is paying about 12x company-wide operating income, a multiple low enough that the price sits below what even a 5%-per-year operating-profit decline would warrant. That is a bound, not a solved point: computed at a cost of capital near 7.4% with 4% terminal growth, the price does not require growth, only that profit not erode faster than a modest decline. By that frame the standalone business was already cheap before the bid.
The family pattern is mostly within range. The asset, relative-multiple, and growth methods land at or near the price, the relative-multiple frame sits well below it (peers would justify more), and only the earnings-power method calls the stock expensive, reflecting the heavy interest burden that eats into normalized earnings. The reverse-DCF range centers at the current price with an acceptable reliability flag, which is consistent with a stable franchise whose equity value is held down by debt rather than by weak operations.
But the standalone analysis is now secondary to the deal math. The announced consideration is $30.00 in cash plus 0.1574 Brink's shares per Atleos share, in a transaction valued around $6.6 billion. The cash leg is a fixed floor; the stock leg moves with Brink's price. The current $43.69 trades at a discount to the headline value, and that discount is the market pricing time to a 2027 close plus the probability the regulatory and shareholder conditions are met. The valuation question for a holder is therefore not what the standalone is worth, it is whether the spread compensates for deal-break risk and the leverage that would resurface if it broke.
Catalysts
The defining catalyst is the pending acquisition by Brink's, announced in 2026: $30.00 per share in cash plus 0.1574 Brink's shares, a roughly $6.6 billion deal completed through a two-step merger structure and expected to close in the first quarter of 2027. Completion depends on shareholder approvals at both companies, expiration of antitrust waiting periods, and various domestic and foreign regulatory and money-transmitter clearances. The company has also sought bondholder consent tied to the merger terms. Each approval milestone between now and close is a discrete event that moves the spread.
The most recent standalone print supports the deal logic: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.04 billion, up 7%, with recurring revenue around 72% of the total, Self-Service Banking up about 12%, ATM-as-a-Service up roughly 30% with new expansion in Europe and Latin America, and net income attributable to Atleos of $22 million, up 57%. Adjusted EBITDA was about $172 million, roughly flat, and unrestricted adjusted free cash flow was modestly negative in the quarter, a seasonal cash pattern worth watching.
The watch items are all deal-related: antitrust and money-transmitter clearances across multiple jurisdictions, the shareholder votes, and Brink's share price (which sets the value of the stock portion of the consideration). A clean path through the approvals would narrow the spread toward the headline value; any regulatory snag or a material drop in Brink's stock would widen it and reintroduce the standalone leverage profile. Sources: NCR Atleos Q1 2026 results and merger disclosures (investor.ncratleos.com; stocktitan.net; theglobeandmail.com; investing.com), 2026.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Self-Service Banking (reported)
- ACIW (ACI WORLDWIDE, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …and examination by the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council ("FFIEC"), an interagency body of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the National Credit Union Administration and various state…
- FY2025 10-K: …complex payment environments to speed time to market, reduce costs, and deliver a consistent experience to customers across channels while enabling them to prevent and rapidly react to fraudulent activity. In addition, we enable banks to meet the requirements of different payment schemes and to quickly create…
- JKHY (JACK HENRY & ASSOCIATES, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …complement and accelerate our organic growth, and generate long-term profitable growth for our stockholders. While we seek to identify appropriate acquisition opportunities, we will continue to explore alternative ways to leverage our cash position and balance sheet to the benefit of our stockholders, such as…
- FY2025 10-K: …a contemporary, adaptable administrative portal. In addition to bill payment capabilities, we provide a 'pay a loan' feature, an 'open looped' real-time person-to-person ("P2P") solution, and account-to-account ("A2A") transfer features. The array of money movement options maintains consumer and business engagement…
- NCNO (nCino, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …our solutions and maintenance and support services that we generally offer under non-cancellable multi-year contracts, which are typically three to five years in length, we offer: • Client onboarding, loan origination, and deposit account opening solutions targeted at a FI's commercial, small business, and retail…
- FY2025 10-K: …and customer support services; • capability for configurability, integration, and scalability; • domain expertise in banking technology; • security and reliability; • ability of our solutions to support compliance with legal and regulatory requirements; • ability to innovate and respond to customer needs quickly; •…
Network (reported)
- GPN (GLOBAL PAYMENTS INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …the standards of the payment networks in which we are direct members. We maintain relationships with financial institutions, which may also serve as our Member sponsors for other card brands or in other markets, to assist with funds settlement. Timing differences, interchange fees, merchant reserves and exception…
- FY2025 10-K: …networks, financial institutions, and in some instances, our merchants, ISOs and/or individuals, for our failure or the failure of our associated third-party service providers (as applicable) to protect this information. For a further discussion of our approach to cybersecurity, see "Item 1C - Cybersecurity" of this…
- FIS (Fidelity National Information Services, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …Company performs the related services. Fixed fees for processing services are generally recognized ratably over the contract period. Transaction processing and services revenue also includes network, interchange, and other pass-through fees. Pass-through fees generally represent variable consideration and are…
- FY2025 10-K: …Notes Due 2031 registered pursuant to Section 12 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. 10-K 001-16427 4.26 2/26/2024 4.24 Description of the Company's 1.000% Senior Notes Due 2028 and 2.250% Senior Notes Due 2029, registered pursuant to Section 12 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. * 101 Incorporated by…
- FOUR (SHIFT4 PAYMENTS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …distribution network. Today, our network includes thousands of partners and regional internal sales and support hubs, allowing us to provide the support that many merchants demand. Our distribution approach and commitment to our internal sales team and software partners are key to our go-to-market strategy. •…
- FY2025 10-K: …with those that have strong networks, local expertise, high-quality merchant portfolios, and trusted relationships. Our network of VARs provide a consistent and extensive source of new merchant acquisition, with no single VAR accounting for more than 2% of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025. Our…
- PAY (Paymentus Holdings, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …our mission-critical solutions provide our billers with a payments operating system that helps them collect revenue faster and more profitably and empower their consumers with the information and transparency needed to control their finances. We extend our platform's reach through our Instant Payment Network® (IPN).…
- FY2025 10-K: …features we provide. Our platform allows consumers to set the terms of their bill payments in a way that best suits their needs. Growth Strategies We intend to leverage our products and industry presence to establish our platform as the industry standard for electronic bill payments for billers, financial…
Telecommunications & Technology (T&T) (reported)
- NTCT (NETSCOUT SYSTEMS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …0001078075 2025 FY FALSE 371 http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2024#PrepaidExpenseAndOtherAssetsCurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2024#OtherAccruedLiabilitiesCurrent iso4217:USD xbrli:shares iso4217:USD xbrli:shares ntct:segment ntct:reporting_unit xbrli:pure ntct:employee ntct:subsidiary ntct:patent 0001078075 2024-04-01…
- FY2025 10-K: …new customers, and increasing our total addressable market. In particular, we are broadening our cybersecurity solutions beyond the DDoS market with enterprise security offerings such as Network Detection and Response (NDR) that can help our customers extract more value from the network traffic that we are already…
- SAIC (Science Applications International Corporation)
- FY2025 10-K: …management and operations, sustainment and security of the customers' entire IT infrastructure. Our long-standing customer relationships have enabled us to achieve an in-depth understanding of our customers' missions and provide differentiated service offerings to meet our customers' most complex requirements.…
- FY2025 10-K: …development and integration services, training, logistics and sustainment. These full life cycle offerings, combined with deep customer knowledge, allow us to more effectively support our customers' missions. Significant Scale and Diversified Contract Base. With approximately $7.5 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025,…
- LDOS (Leidos Holdings, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …across these reportable segments. NATIONAL SECURITY & DIGITAL Our National Security & Digital business provides leading-edge and technologically advanced services, solutions and products across substantially all U.S. federal government customers. Our advanced capabilities allow us to provide technology-enabled…
- FY2025 10-K: …agency, conducts the procurement. The user agency, or the GSA on its behalf, evaluates the user agency's requirements and initiates a competition limited to GSA Schedule qualified contractors. GSA Schedule contracts are designed to provide the user agency with reduced procurement time and lower procurement costs.…
- DXC (DXC Technology Co)
- FY2025 10-K: …variations do not materially affect our long-term performance, they may contribute to periodic fluctuations in revenue, expenses, and profitability. We continue to monitor these trends and adjust our operations as needed to optimize performance throughout the year. Competition The IT and professional services markets…
- FY2025 10-K: …deep industry expertise to support the full spectrum of insurance operations. We also help operate and continuously improve bank cards, payment and lending processes and operations, and customer experience operations. 3 Global Infrastructure Services GIS implements and operates the technology underpinning the…
- CSGS (CSG SYSTEMS INTERNATIONAL, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …leading CSPs like Charter, Comcast, MTN, Airtel Africa, DISH, Mobily, Verizon, AT&T, American Movil, and Telstra. Outside of the CSP space, we work with hundreds of other customers like JP Morgan Chase, Walgreens, and Formula 1, and approximately 163,000 active merchants including some of the largest financial…
- FY2025 10-K: …general global economic and political conditions, and foreign currency exchange rates; our ability to maintain a reliable, secure computing environment; continued market acceptance of our products and services; our ability to continuously develop and enhance products in a timely, cost-effective, technically advanced…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.