MasTec, Inc. (MTZ): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $287.19, MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~11.0 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.

Generated: 2026-07-29 · Exported: 2026-08-01 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/MTZ

Headline

FieldValue
TickerMTZ
CompanyMasTec, Inc.
Current price$287.19/sh
CompositionCommunications 23% / Clean Energy and Infrastructure 33% / Power Delivery 29% / Pipeline Infrastructure 15% / Intersegment eliminations 0%

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Operating margin (value-band context)2.8%
Operating margin today3.9%
Margin compression (value-band)-1.1pp
Must persist for11.0y
Multiple paid43x operating income

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 9: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 10.4% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2.1 years.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~8.6 years; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: high

ReferenceValue
vs own history+0.71σ
cohort percentile (of 222 peers)89
sustained it ~10 years at this level14%
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset3.89x4expensive
Earnings3.11x2expensive
Relative1.82x5expensive
Growth0.94x3justifies

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.3%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=14)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$112.882.54xyesFCF base $0.3B, growth 23% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.3%, 7yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$305.490.94xyesExit EV/EBITDA: 41.3x / 43.3x / 45.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr
Relative ValuationRelative$157.401.82xyesP/E 27.68x (blended: static sector reference 18x + trailing (TTM) 50x), scenarios: 22.3x / 27.7x / 33.0x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 21.4x
Simple DDMGrowthno
Two-Stage DDMGrowthno
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$61.754.65xyesBV/sh $42.01, ROE (TTM) 13.6%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$74.153.87xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$326.020.88xyesRev $15.3B, growth 23% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.2x / 1.5x / 1.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$68.524.19xyesEPS $5.71, growth 2% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=25.14 (Overvalued)
Margin TrajectoryGrowthno
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$0.0128718.50xyesNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.04B × (1−24%) / WACC 8.3% → EPV (no growth) (excluded from median)
Residual IncomeAsset$76.733.74xyesBV $42.01 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 13.6% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr
Graham NumberAsset$73.463.91xyes√(22.5 × EPS $5.71 × BVPS $42.01) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative$55.755.15xyesEBITDA $0.58B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x
FCF YieldEarnings$2.35122.21xyesFCF $256.7M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity (excluded from median)
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings$0.0128718.50xyesSBC-adj FCF $0.22B (FCF $0.26B − SBC $0.04B) capitalized at Kₑ (excluded from median)
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$184.241.56xyesEPS $5.71 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$9.2231.15xyesBV $42.01 × (ROIC 1.8% / WACC 8.3%) (excluded from median)
P/Sales SectorRelative$484.880.59xyesRevenue $15.28B × sector P/S 2.5x
PEG Fair ValueRelative$214.131.34xyesEPS $5.71 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x
Earnings YieldEarnings$61.734.65xyesEPS $5.71 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelativeno
Clinical Phase NPVGrowthno
MertonAssetno
V5 Mechanicalno

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$2.3b
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)4.96x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)3.78x
Share count CAGR (dilution)1.3%
Burning cashno

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

MasTec is best read as a mature, scaled infrastructure builder at the start of a margin-recovery cycle, with the demand backdrop firmly in its favor. The company builds and maintains the physical infrastructure behind several of the biggest spending trends in the economy: power-grid expansion, pipeline infrastructure, fiber and wireless networks, and clean-energy projects. The 10-K describes its communications work spanning "wireless and wireline/fiber networks, data center buildout and interconnection", and the demand for grid upgrades and data-center power is structural rather than cyclical. The work is contracted and visible: backlog reached $20.33 billion at quarter-end, up 27.8% year over year, which is more than a year of revenue already booked.

The most recent quarter showed both the growth and the margin inflection that define the bull case. Revenue surged 34.5% to a record $3.83 billion, with double-digit growth across every operating segment, led by a 91% jump in Pipeline Infrastructure and a 45% rise in Clean Energy and Infrastructure. More important than the top line, operating margin improved to 3.7% from 1.3% in the year-ago quarter, and adjusted EBITDA reached $283.6 million at a 7.4% margin. For a construction business, the difference between a 1% and a 4% operating margin is the difference between scraping by and earning real returns, and the recovery is the heart of the thesis.

The scale and diversification are genuine advantages at this stage. MasTec operates across four segments, so a slowdown in one, say pipeline, can be offset by strength in another, like power delivery or data-center-driven communications work. Management responded to the strong start by raising full-year 2026 guidance to about $17.5 billion in revenue, roughly 22% growth. The bull case is a leading infrastructure contractor with a record backlog, margins recovering off a trough, and exposure to the grid, fiber, and clean-energy buildouts that are set to run for years.

Bear Case

The bear case is about what the price assumes margins will become, because the entire valuation depends on a margin recovery continuing far beyond where MasTec has historically operated. At roughly 76x trailing operating income, the price embeds growth held near its self-funding ceiling for some seventeen years, an assumption only about 14% of comparable fast-growers have sustained for even a decade. That multiple looks extreme because the trailing operating margin is just 2.8%, the thin reality of a construction business. The price is not paying for today's earnings; it is paying for a future where MasTec earns a structurally higher margin on a much larger revenue base, and holds it. The most fragile assumption in the report is precisely that margin expansion is durable rather than a favorable point in the project cycle.

Construction economics make that assumption risky. MasTec derives a significant portion of revenue from fixed-price contracts, and the 10-K is explicit that "project margins will generally be reduced if actual costs to complete a project exceed our project cost estimates and we are unable to pass the increased costs" to the customer. Under fixed-price master service agreements, the company "typically set[s] the price of our services on a per unit" basis, which means cost overruns, weather delays, or labor inflation land directly on margin. A single large project gone wrong can erase a quarter's profit. The current margin recovery is real, but the business has historically swung between thin and very thin margins, and the price has priced in only the favorable end of that range.

The balance sheet adds leverage to the cyclicality. Net debt sits near $2.26 billion, roughly 5.2 times trailing operating income, the highest leverage ratio among the names in this batch, though interest coverage of 10 times is comfortable while earnings hold. The concern is what happens if the margin recovery stalls: a leveraged contractor with reverting margins has little cushion. None of the conservative valuation families reaches the price, the asset-value and earnings-power lenses sit at a fraction of it, and only the growth-DCF gets there by holding a 56x exit EBITDA multiple flat for seven years. The analysts are split on the upside, with a median target of $362, just below the current price. The bet is that a thin-margin, fixed-price construction business sustains an elevated margin and grows for many years, and the conservative methods see no support for the price if it does not.

Valuation

At $379.58 (June 27, 2026), MasTec's price makes an aggressive bet for a construction company. Inverted, it implies operating growth held near the self-funding ceiling for roughly seventeen years, which the framework labels elevated. The reason the implied multiple, about 76x operating income, looks so high is the trailing operating margin of just 2.8%, the structurally thin reality of building infrastructure. The price is effectively underwriting a future where MasTec earns a materially higher margin, the recovery toward 4% and beyond already visible in the recent quarter, on a far larger revenue base, and sustains it for years.

The valuation methods are nearly unanimous in calling the price rich. The asset-value family lands far below, with Simple Excess Return near $62 against a book value of about $42 and a trailing return on equity of 13.6%. The earnings-power family lands near $62 on a no-growth basis. The peer-multiple family lands near $56 to $188. Only the forward-growth family reaches the price, and only the exit-multiple DCF lands at it by holding a 56x EBITDA multiple flat for seven years. That is the textbook signature of a moat-and-durability premium: every static lens says expensive, and the price survives solely on the assumption that the margin recovery and backlog conversion compound for far longer than the methods will credit.

The peer cohort is the right comparison and a useful check. The engineering-and-construction group includes Quanta Services, Primoris, and EMCOR, infrastructure builders that have also re-rated on the grid-and-data-center spending wave, and MasTec trades at a premium even within that group on trailing economics. The build of the business matters here: the recurring, master-service-agreement work in power delivery and communications deserves a steadier multiple than the lumpier fixed-price project work in pipeline and clean energy, and the blended price reflects a mix the market is treating favorably. Solvency is the constraint to watch: net debt at roughly 5.2 times operating income is meaningful, covered comfortably at 10 times interest only while margins hold. The decisive variable is margin durability, whether the move from 1.3% to 3.7% operating margin is the start of a structural step-up or a high point in the project cycle that the price has mistaken for permanence.

Catalysts

The first-quarter 2026 results, reported May 1, were a record and the dominant recent catalyst. MasTec posted revenue of $3.83 billion, up 34.5% year over year, with adjusted EPS beating consensus handily and adjusted EBITDA of $283.6 million at a 7.4% margin. The most important line was the margin: operating margin improved to 3.7% from 1.3% a year earlier. The stock rose roughly 11% on the print, a sign the market read the margin recovery as durable.

The segment detail showed broad-based strength. Growth came from double-digit gains across all operating segments, led by a 91% surge in Pipeline Infrastructure and a 45% increase in Clean Energy and Infrastructure, with Power Delivery and Clean Energy highlighted as the key contributors. Backlog reached $20.33 billion, up 27.8%, providing visibility into future revenue. A growing backlog in a construction business is the leading indicator that matters most.

Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to about $17.5 billion in revenue, roughly 22% growth. Analyst sentiment is constructive but the targets bracket the price: the median sits near $362, just below the current level, with the most bullish recent target at $428. The next quarterly print is the test of whether the margin expansion holds and whether the record backlog continues to convert into the higher-margin revenue the elevated valuation requires.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Communications (reported)

Clean Energy and Infrastructure (reported)

Power Delivery (reported)

Pipeline Infrastructure (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

MTZ FY2025 10-K · MasTec Q1 2026 results, May 2026 · MarketBeat, 2026

View the full interactive MTZ report on boothcheck