MINERALS TECHNOLOGIES INC. (MTX): what the price requires
At today's price, MINERALS TECHNOLOGIES INC. (MTX) is priced for -3.4% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/MTX
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | MTX |
| Company | MINERALS TECHNOLOGIES INC. |
| Current price | $72.21/sh |
| Composition | Household & Personal Care 25% / Specialty Additives 28% / High-Temperature Technologies 34% / Environmental & Infrastructure 13% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 5.8% |
| Operating margin (mid-cycle) | 12.2% |
| Margin compression implied | -6.4pp |
| Trailing margin (depressed year) | 2.1% |
| Implied growth | -3.4% |
| Multiple paid | 11x mid-cycle operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 12, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.8% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~5.4pp.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.12σ |
| cohort percentile (of 76 peers) | 20 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.27x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.39x | 4 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.70x | 5 | justifies |
| Growth | 1.31x | 3 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Relative
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=17)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $55.19 | 1.31x | yes | FCF base $0.1B, growth 3% (input: historical growth), terminal g 2.7%, WACC 7.7%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $66.30 | 1.09x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 8.9x / 10.9x / 12.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $61.38 | 1.18x | yes | P/E 14x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 11.8x / 14.0x / 16.2x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 8x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $56.43 | 1.28x | yes | BV/sh $55.75, ROE (TTM) 9.4%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $56.76 | 1.27x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $51.05 | 1.41x | yes | Rev $2.1B, growth 3% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 0.9x / 1.1x / 1.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $178.15 | 0.41x | yes | EPS $5.09, growth 35% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.40 (Undervalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $49.21 | 1.47x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.21B × (1−21%) / WACC 7.7% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $56.82 | 1.27x | yes | BV $55.75 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 9.4% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 6.1%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $79.90 | 0.90x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $5.09 × BVPS $55.75) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $47.71 | 1.51x | yes | EBITDA $0.27B × sector EV/EBITDA 8.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $20.27 | 3.56x | yes | FCF $118.3M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $164.24 | 0.44x | yes | EPS $5.09 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $14.20 | 5.09x | yes | BV $55.75 × (ROIC 1.9% / WACC 7.7%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $102.95 | 0.70x | yes | Revenue $2.13B × sector P/S 1.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $190.88 | 0.38x | yes | EPS $5.09 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $55.03 | 1.31x | yes | EPS $5.09 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $644.9m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 3.18x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 2.51x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -1.7% |
| Burning cash | no |
Leverage and coverage are computed on normalized mid-cycle operating income (mid-cycle margin 12.2%); the trailing year was depressed.
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
- Minerals Technologies turns mined minerals into engineered products, specialty additives that, in the 10-K's words, "become functional components in a variety of consumer and industrial goods," across two segments, Consumer & Specialties and Engineered Solutions.
- The biggest risk is the cyclicality of its industrial end markets and exposure to raw-material and energy costs, which can compress margins faster than the company can pass them through.
- Watch the margin recovery, with both segments growing double digits and management guiding second-quarter operating income near $80 million as the demand environment improves.
Bull Case
What the static valuation methods miss about Minerals Technologies is that its trailing earnings have been depressed by a soft industrial cycle, and the recovery is already underway. The company takes mined minerals and engineers them into higher-value products: specialty additives the 10-K describes as becoming "functional components in a variety of consumer and industrial goods" across its two reportable segments, Consumer & Specialties and Engineered Solutions. These are not bulk commodities; they are formulated, spec-in products where the company's mineral reserves and processing know-how give it durable positions in niches like calcium carbonate for paper, bentonite for consumer and industrial uses, and refractory materials for high-temperature industry.
The most recent quarter showed the inflection clearly. First-quarter 2026 sales rose 11% to $546.9 million, with both segments growing, Consumer & Specialties up 11% to $296.6 million and Engineered Solutions up 12% to $250.3 million, and segment operating income up 18% and 17% respectively. Adjusted EBITDA reached $92.9 million at a 17% margin, and earnings per share excluding special items rose 21% year over year. Growth on both the top line and the margin, across both segments, is the signature of a cyclical business coming off the bottom.
The valuation reflects that depressed starting point rather than the recovery. The stock trades around $79 (June 27, 2026), near its book value of about $56 per share plus a modest premium, and at roughly 12x normalized through-cycle operating income, which is undemanding for a business with defensible mineral positions. Management guided second-quarter operating income to about $80 million and full-year mid-single-digit sales growth, and the share count has been declining at roughly 2% a year. The bull case is a specialty-minerals franchise with real reserve-based moats, earnings recovering off a cyclical trough, priced as if the recovery will not stick.
Bear Case
The bear case is best framed through which valuation methods to trust, because they disagree by a wide margin and the flattering ones lean on a number that should be discounted. The Peter Lynch and growth-adjusted Graham approaches reach well above the price, but only by extrapolating a 35% historical EPS growth rate, which is a recovery-off-a-trough artifact, not a durable growth rate for a specialty-minerals business. Strip that out and the honest methods cluster much closer to the price: the asset-value methods land near $56, the earnings-power lens near $48, and the zero-growth FCF method lands far below at $20. When the conservative, growth-agnostic methods sit at or below the price and only the growth-extrapolating ones reach above it, the safer read is that the stock is fairly valued to modestly full on demonstrated economics, not deeply cheap.
The core risk is cyclicality stacked on commodity-cost exposure. Minerals Technologies sells into paper, construction, foundry, and industrial end markets that move with the macro cycle, and its profitability depends on passing through volatile raw-material and energy costs faster than they rise. The 10-K is candid that customers may "pursue inventory reduction measures" and that the company "may also experience pricing pressure" when demand softens. It also flags that customer financial distress could "deteriorate the aging of our accounts receivable, increase our bad debt exposure and possibly trigger impairment of assets", the kind of second-order risk that surfaces in a downturn. A 12x normalized multiple is reasonable when the cycle cooperates and punishing when it does not.
The returns underneath are the deeper concern. On a trailing basis the return on invested capital sits below 2%, well under the cost of capital, which is why several asset-based methods land near or below the price; the business has not consistently earned its keep on the capital deployed. Net debt of about $645 million against a leverage ratio near 2.5 times operating income is manageable but real, and it means the margin recovery has to hold to keep the balance sheet comfortable. The paper industry, a meaningful end market for calcium carbonate, faces secular decline in graphic paper, a structural headwind the cyclical recovery does not erase. The bet is that the current recovery is durable rather than another oscillation in a low-return cyclical, and the conservative methods are not yet convinced.
Valuation
Minerals Technologies is priced as a recovering cyclical, and the framework reads it accordingly. At $79, the stock trades at about 12x normalized, through-cycle operating income, which inverts into an implied assumption of roughly flat operating growth, slightly negative, over five years. That is not a demanding bet; it is the market saying it expects the business to roughly hold its mid-cycle earnings rather than grow meaningfully. The use of through-cycle margins matters here, because trailing earnings are depressed by the soft industrial environment, and pricing off the trough quarter would overstate how expensive the stock is.
The disagreement among the methods splits along the usual cyclical fault line. The growth-agnostic, conservative lenses cluster near or below the price: the asset-value methods land around $56 to $57, anchored to a book value of about $56 and a return on equity just above the cost of equity, and Earnings Power Value lands near $48 on normalized operating income. The relative-multiple lens, at a 14x sector P/E, lands near $61. The methods that reach well above the price, Peter Lynch near $178 and the growth-adjusted Graham formula near $164, do so only by extrapolating a recovery-driven 35% EPS growth rate that no specialty-minerals business sustains, and they should be read with heavy skepticism. The honest center of the distribution sits modestly below the price, which is why the price is justified mainly by the peer-multiple lens.
The peer cohort, chemicals names like Cabot, Eastman, and Huntsman, frames MTX as a mid-cap specialty player trading roughly in line on a normalized basis. The Graham Number, a conservative blend of earnings and book value, lands right around the price at $80, a reasonable anchor for a business of this quality. Solvency is adequate: net debt near $645 million at roughly 2.5 times operating income, with ample liquidity, though interest coverage is not separately disclosed in the latest filings. The decisive variable is the durability of the margin recovery. If both segments hold the double-digit growth and the 17% EBITDA margin the recent quarter showed, the stock grows into the modest premium; if the industrial cycle rolls back over, the low-return reality the conservative methods price reasserts itself.
Catalysts
The first-quarter 2026 results, reported in April, were a clear beat and the key recent development. Minerals Technologies posted sales of $546.9 million, up 11%, and EPS excluding special items of $1.38, up 21% year over year and ahead of estimates. Both segments grew: Consumer & Specialties rose 11% to $296.6 million, led by 16% growth in household and personal care, and Engineered Solutions rose 12% to $250.3 million, with segment operating income up 18% and 17% respectively. Adjusted EBITDA reached $92.9 million at a 17% margin.
The guidance reinforced the recovery. Management guided second-quarter sales of approximately $560 million and operating income of about $80 million, with Q2 EPS in a range of $1.60 to $1.65, and reiterated full-year mid-single-digit sales growth. For a cyclical business, sequential guidance pointing to higher sales and margins is the most direct signal that the demand environment is firming.
Analyst sentiment is constructive, with a consensus rating near Strong Buy and price targets clustered in the high $80s to mid $90s, above the current price. The optimism reflects the margin recovery and the resilience of the consumer-and-specialties mix. The next quarterly print is the test of whether the second-quarter guidance lands and whether both segments sustain the double-digit growth that has driven the recent re-rating.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Consumer & Specialties (reported)
- SXT (Sensient Technologies Corp)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CBT (Cabot Corporation)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- IFF (INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- NGVT (INGEVITY CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- IOSP (INNOSPEC INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- USLM (UNITED STATES LIME & MINERALS INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- BCPC (Balchem Corp)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Engineered Solutions (reported)
- CBT (Cabot Corporation)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- NGVT (INGEVITY CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ECVT (Ecovyst Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- IOSP (INNOSPEC INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- TROX (TRONOX HOLDINGS PLC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- USLM (UNITED STATES LIME & MINERALS INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
MTX FY2025 10-K · Minerals Technologies Q1 2026 results, April 2026 · MarketBeat, 2026; TipRanks, 2026