MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST, INC. (MPT): what the price assumes
boothcheck covers MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST, INC. (MPT) but does not put one priced-in number on it: here the defensible answer is the evidence rather than a point estimate. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.
Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/MPT
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | MPT |
| Company | MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST, INC. |
| Current price | $4.66/sh |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | financials |
| Price-to-book | 0.61x |
The implied return on book is non-physical at this price-to-book and is suppressed as misleading. The rarity read below is the honest signal.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | +0.65σ |
| cohort percentile (of 13 peers) | 23 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 0.68x | 3 | justifies |
| Earnings | 1.12x | 1 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.90x | 2 | justifies |
| Growth | 1.10x | 2 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings, Relative, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 2.9%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=8)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $8.02 | 0.58x | no | Exit EV/EBITDA: 40.8x / 42.8x / 44.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $9.10 | 0.51x | yes | P/E 35x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 29.4x / 35.0x / 40.6x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 26.84x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | $3.00 | 1.55x | yes | DPS $0.37, g=-2.8% (sustainable: ROE (TTM) × retention; not the terminal-growth assumption), ke=9.3% |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $7.21 | 0.65x | yes | Stage 1: 5% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $7.60 | 0.61x | yes | Reference only (book value floor): BV/sh $7.60, ROE negative |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $6.84 | 0.68x | yes | Reference only (book value with convergence): BV/sh $7.60, ROE converges to ke |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $3.72 | 1.25x | no | Rev $1.0B, growth 6% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.3x / 2.8x / 3.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $3.12 | 1.49x | no | FFO/share $0.26, growth 5% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 9y median), PEG=0.00 (Undervalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Graham Number | Asset | $6.67 | 0.70x | yes | √(22.5 × FFO/share $0.26 × BVPS $7.60) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $0.01 | 465.50x | yes | EBITDA $0.28B × sector EV/EBITDA 20.0x (excluded from median) |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.01 | 465.50x | yes | FCF $216.1M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity (excluded from median) |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.01 | 465.50x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.20B (FCF $0.22B − SBC $0.02B) capitalized at Kₑ (excluded from median) |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $4.16 | 1.12x | yes | FFO/share $0.26 × (8.5 + 2×5.3%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $10.04 | 0.46x | no | Revenue $1.00B × sector P/S 6.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $2.07 | 2.25x | no | FFO/share $0.26 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 5.3% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 9y median)) → PE 7.9x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $2.81 | 1.66x | no | FFO/share $0.26 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | $3.64 | 1.28x | yes | FFO/share $0.26 × 14.1x P/FFO (route cohort median, n=85); FFO $0.15B (FFO incl. D&A, TTM), shares 598M |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hospital real estate (single segment) | operating | enterprise | 1.0B reported-currency | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -0.1% |
Deposit/float-funded balance sheet: debt is funding, not corporate leverage, and GAAP operating cash flow follows loan flows. Net-debt, interest-coverage, and cash-burn lenses do not apply. The solvency frame for a financial is regulatory capital and payout capacity (CET1, stress buffer, dividends plus buybacks against earnings).
Bullet Takeaways
At $4.53 Medical Properties Trust trades around 0.6x book, a discount that says the market still doubts the post-crisis recovery. The price pays a multiple of book that no sustainable return record cleanly supports, so this is a balance-sheet and re-tenanting bet, not an earnings-multiple one.
The recovery is underway. Q1 2026 returned to profit with normalized FFO of $0.14 per share, and management says re-tenanting of former Steward and Prospect hospitals is ramping rent toward full levels by October 2026, with cash rent collections targeted at $1 billion annualized by year-end.
The overhang is leverage and tenant concentration. Total debt is about $9.8 billion at roughly 59% leverage and 9.3x net-debt-to-EBITDAre, and the portfolio still leans on a handful of large hospital operators, the exact structure that produced the last crisis.
Bull Case
Valuing a hospital REIT requires reading the lease stream, not an earnings multiple, and that is where the recovery shows. Medical Properties Trust owns hospital real estate and collects rent from operators, so its worth is the durability of that rent against the value of the buildings. After the collapse of its former largest tenant, the company has been re-tenanting properties and selling others, and the filing confirms the cleanup is far along, noting vacant properties now "represent less than 1% of total assets" and that it is "in various stages of either re-leasing or selling these vacant properties" (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-073587). Q1 2026 returned to profit, with revenue rising to $252.1 million from $223.8 million and normalized FFO of $0.14 per share, the first clear evidence the rent base is stabilizing.
The asset value gives the discount its margin. At $4.53 against a book value near $7.60 per share, the stock trades around 0.6x book, and the reference book-value methods cluster right at that floor: Simple Excess Return at $7.60, Two-Stage Excess Return at $6.84, Graham Number at $6.67. If the re-tenanted leases hold, the hospital real estate underpinning those marks is worth substantially more than the equity price implies, and hospital buildings are not easily repurposed away, which supports the underlying property value even when a single operator fails.
The forward cash story is concrete. Management says rent from the former Steward and Prospect hospitals is ramping toward full levels by October 2026 and targets cash rent collections of $1 billion annualized by year-end, while maintaining a $0.09 quarterly dividend. The company has also been an aggressive deleverager, setting and exceeding a $2 billion liquidity target in 2024 "by approximately $800 million through a combination of real estate asset sales" (accession 0001193125-26-073587). The bull case is a distressed REIT trading at a steep discount to the buildings it owns, with the rent base measurably healing and management converting assets to liquidity to buy time.
Bear Case
The advantage MPT once claimed, scale and diversification across hospital operators, is exactly what eroded, and the structure that allowed it to erode is still in place. The company remains dependent on a small set of large tenants. The filing is explicit that its results are "dependent upon our relationships with and success of our tenants, particularly our largest tenants, like Circle, Priory, HSA, Swiss Medical, and Lifepoint Behavioral" (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-073587). Concentration in a handful of operators is the precise vulnerability that produced the last crisis, when its biggest tenant failed and dragged rent collections, asset values, and the dividend down together. A re-tenanted portfolio that is still operator-concentrated has not removed the failure mode, it has only changed the names.
The balance sheet leaves little cushion if a tenant slips again. Total debt is about $9.8 billion, financial leverage runs around 59.4%, and adjusted net debt sits near 9.3x annualized EBITDAre, which is high for any REIT and dangerous for one whose rent stream just proved fragile. The deleveraging has leaned heavily on asset sales, and the filing shows debt maturities being pushed out with extension options that depend on "not being in default at the time of each extension option date" (accession 0001193125-26-073587). Refinancing a levered REIT in a higher-rate environment while still proving the rent base is a narrow path.
The valuation honesty is the final caution. The price pays a multiple of book that no sustainable return record cleanly supports, which is why a single return figure cannot be stated for this name at this price. The recovery is a forecast, not a fact: rent is guided to ramp toward full by October 2026, but the FFO-multiple method lands at $3.46 and the simple dividend-discount reference at $3.00, both below the current $4.53. The bear case is that a still-concentrated, heavily levered hospital REIT trading at a discount to book is cheap for a reason, and the reason, tenant fragility, has not been structurally fixed.
Valuation
A REIT like this is valued off its assets and its rent stream, not an operating multiple, and the methods reflect a business mid-recovery. The book-value reference methods cluster near $6.67 to $7.60, consistent with the roughly $7.60 book value per share, and at $4.53 the stock trades around 0.6x that book. The FFO-based methods, which capitalize the current rent stream rather than the asset value, land lower: the Funds From Operations Multiple at $3.46 on FFO per share of about $0.26 at a route-cohort median of 13.4x, and the dividend-discount reference at $3.00. The split between the asset methods above the price and the FFO methods below it is the entire question: is MPT worth its buildings or its currently depressed rent.
The reverse solve is unusually direct about its own limits here. At about 0.6x book the implied return on capital is non-physical, so high it cannot be expressed honestly as a single figure, and the page suppresses it as misleading. The right way to read that is qualitative: the price pays a multiple of book that no sustainable return record supports, which for a recovering distressed REIT means the market is pricing the rent base well below the asset value. The reverse-DCF reasonable band lands at roughly $2.65 to $4.94 with a base near $4.03, so the current $4.53 sits in the upper half of that band.
The synthesis is a recovery bet with a real asset floor and a real cash question. If re-tenanted leases ramp to the targeted $1 billion of annualized cash rent, the rent stream catches up toward the asset value and the 0.6x-book discount looks like an opportunity. If a tenant stumbles or refinancing tightens, the FFO methods near $3 are the warning that the cash cannot yet support the price.
Catalysts
The Q1 2026 print, reported in 2026, was the recovery signal: a return to profit with net income of about $33 million on revenue of $252.1 million, up from $223.8 million, and normalized FFO of $0.14 per share, helped by lower impairment charges and an income-tax benefit (StockTitan; Gurufocus). The dividend was held at $0.09 quarterly. Total debt of $9.79 billion, 59.4% leverage, and 9.3x net-debt-to-EBITDAre frame the balance-sheet stakes.
The forward catalysts are specific and dated. Management guides re-tenanting of former Steward and Prospect hospitals to ramp rent toward full levels by October 2026, with cash rent collections targeted at $1 billion annualized by year-end. The swing factors into the next several prints are whether those re-tenanted operators pay on schedule, continued asset sales and deleveraging, debt-maturity extensions that depend on staying out of default, and the trajectory of normalized FFO as rent ramps. Commentary frames the stock as trading at a roughly 50% discount to book with a high forward FFO yield, which captures both the opportunity and the skepticism (Simply Wall St; TipRanks).
Sources: MPT Q1 2026 results (StockTitan; MPT 8-K and 10-Q, 2026); Gurufocus earnings-call highlights; Simply Wall St and TipRanks coverage (2026).
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Hospital real estate (single segment) (reported)
- DOC (Healthpeak Properties, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …2024 Dispositions of Real Estate During the year ended December 31, 2024, the Company sold: (i) a portfolio of 59 outpatient medical buildings for $ 674 million and provided the buyer with a mortgage loan secured by the real estate sold for $ 405 million (see Note 8), (ii) 14 outpatient medical buildings for $ 220…
- FY2025 10-K: Segment Adjusted NOI by Reportable Segment (1) Outpatient medical $ 795,843 Lab 567,358 Senior housing 176,741 _______________________________________ (1) Our Adjusted NOI for our reportable segments, which we also refer to as Total Portfolio Adjusted NOI for our reportable segments, includes results of operations…
- HR (HEALTHCARE REALTY TRUST INCORPORATED)
- FY2025 10-K: …Many of the Company's leases are dependent on the viability of associated health systems. Revenue concentrations relating to these leases expose the Company to risks related to the financial condition of the associated health systems . Most of the Company's properties on or adjacent to hospital campuses are largely…
- FY2025 10-K: …Item 7. 2 Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations included in Part II of this report. Competition The Company competes for the acquisition and development of real estate properties with private investors, healthcare providers, other REITs, real estate partnerships and…
- SBRA (SABRA HEALTH CARE REIT, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: Hospitals offer a wide range of services, both inpatient and outpatient, in a variety of settings. We believe that demand will increase for innovative means of delivering those services and present additional investment opportunities. While the factors described above indicate projected growth for our industry,…
- FY2025 10-K: …financings, we expect will fund the growth of our operations. Further, we may opportunistically seek access to U.S. government agency financing, including through Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and HUD, in appropriate circumstances in connection with acquisitions. Develop New Investment Relationships We seek to cultivate…
- OHI (OMEGA HEALTHCARE INVESTORS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …community ("CCRCs"). Our core portfolio consists of our long-term leases and real estate loans with healthcare operating companies and affiliates (collectively, our "operators"). Real estate loans consist of mortgage loans and other real estate loans that are primarily collateralized by a first, second or third…
- FY2025 10-K: …23.1% of our non-real estate loans have maturity dates that expire after 2030. Portfolio and Investment Summary As of December 31, 2025, our portfolio of consolidated real estate investments included 1,027 operating healthcare facilities that are operated by 89 third-party operators or managers in 42 states,…
- NHI (National Health Investors, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …and in some cases, access to healthcare services. Discretionary properties are subject to limited regulatory oversight. There is a correlation between demand for this type of community and the strength of the housing market. Medical Facilities Medical facilities within our Real Estate Investments segment receive…
- FY2025 10-K: …Conditions We compete primarily with other REITs, private equity funds, healthcare providers, banks and insurance companies in the acquisition, leasing and financing of healthcare real estate properties. Operators of our properties compete on a local and regional basis with operators of other facilities that provide…
- WELL (WELLTOWER INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …in the tax provision when such changes occur. See Note 19 for additional information. Under the provisions of the REIT Investment Diversification and Empowerment Act of 2007 ("RIDEA"), a REIT may lease "qualified healthcare properties" on an arm's-length basis to a TRS if the property is operated on behalf of such…
- FY2025 10-K: …of such subsidiary by a person that qualifies as an "independent contractor" and that is, or is related to a person that is, actively engaged in the trade or business of operating healthcare facilities for any person unrelated to us or our taxable REIT subsidiary (such person, an "eligible independent contractor").…
- VTR (Ventas, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …and their affiliated health systems may not remain competitive or financially viable. Our outpatient medical buildings and other properties that serve the healthcare industry depend on the competitiveness and financial viability of the hospitals on or near the campuses where our properties are located or that our…
- FY2025 10-K: - Investments in Unconsolidated Entities of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report. Outpatient Medical and Research Portfolio (OM&R) In our OM&R segment, we primarily acquire, own, develop, lease and manage outpatient medical buildings and research centers. Our…
- DHC (DIVERSIFIED HEALTHCARE TRUST)
- FY2025 10-K: …are not stabilized for both periods presented and one closed community. Net operating income. The change in NOI reflects the net changes in residents fees and services and property operating expenses described above. Medical Office and Life Science Portfolio: Comparable Properties (1) All Properties As of December…
- FY2025 10-K: …joint ventures that own medical office and life science properties located in five states with an aggregate of approximately 2.2 million rentable square feet that were 99% leased with an average (by annualized rental income) remaining lease term of 14.2 years. Our principal executive offices are located at Two Newton…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.