MOOG Inc. (MOG-A): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $374.66, MOOG Inc. (MOG-A) is priced for +23.4% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/MOG-A

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.6% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=15)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

At $408.88 the market pays a price that only the forward-growth methods reach. Asset and earnings-power frames land near $77 to $118, peer multiples near $180 to $325, and only the DCF and future-market-cap models touch the current quote. The bet is on durable compounding the static frames cannot price.

The operating momentum is real and recent. Fiscal Q2 2026 sales rose 13% to $1.05 billion, adjusted EPS jumped to $2.64 from $1.88, free cash flow swung to $97.8 million from near zero, and the twelve-month backlog hit a record $3.3 billion, up 33%. Management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $10.60.

The two structural cautions are leverage and control. Net debt sits near $1.09 billion at about 2.1x operating income, and the dual-class share structure keeps voting power concentrated, so an outside Class A holder owns the cash flows without the votes.

Bull Case

The trajectory is the story. In fiscal Q2 2026 Moog grew net sales 13% to $1.05 billion, lifted diluted EPS to $2.55 from $1.71, and converted that into $97.8 million of free cash flow against a barely positive $2.4 million a year earlier. The growth was broad rather than a single hot line: Space and Defense up 16%, Commercial Aircraft up 15%, Military Aircraft up 10%, Industrial up 9%. On the back of it management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $10.60 and held targets of 13.4% adjusted operating margin and 60% free-cash-flow conversion on roughly $4.3 billion of sales. This is a business whose earnings power is being revalued upward in real time.

The backlog says the momentum is not a one-quarter beat. The twelve-month backlog rose 33% to a record $3.3 billion, which is most of a year of revenue already committed. Moog sits in defense and aerospace niches that are hard to displace: its filing describes its defense market specialty in "thrust vector controls and spacecraft engines, mechanisms, avionics and structure systems and components" (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001628280-25-054103). These are flight-critical motion-control parts qualified onto specific platforms, which is exactly the kind of position that produces pricing power and long program life rather than commodity competition.

The cash conversion finally matches the order book. Trailing operating income is about $510 million, interest coverage runs near 7.4x, and the company carries roughly $925 million of unused credit capacity, "including $901 million from the U.S. revolving credit facility" (accession 0001628280-25-054103). With a defense and aerospace upcycle pulling demand, a record committed backlog, and free cash flow stepping up sharply, the bull case is that Moog has reached the point where rising volume drops through to margin and cash rather than getting absorbed by working capital, and that the static valuation methods built on five-year-average earnings simply have not caught up.

Bear Case

Start with the governance fact a buyer of the Class A shares accepts up front: this is a dual-class company. The capital structure keeps voting control concentrated and Class A holders own the economics with limited say over them, and the charter explicitly lets the board issue additional preferred stock "without further shareholder action" that "ranks senior to both classes of our common stock with respect to the payment of dividends" (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001628280-25-054103). For a company whose entire premium rests on management compounding capital well, the holder is trusting that judgment with little structural recourse.

That matters because the balance sheet has been levered to fund the growth. Net debt is about $1.09 billion against $510 million of trailing operating income, roughly 2.1x, with gross debt near $1.39 billion and only $308 million of liquid assets. Interest coverage near 7.4x is comfortable today, but it is comfortable in an upcycle. The price assumes continued acquisition-and-organic compounding, and the model's asset and earnings-power families are blunt about how far ahead of current fundamentals the quote sits: Earnings Power Value lands near $77, the FCF-yield frames near $67 to $73, and book-value approaches near $95 to $118, all a fraction of the $409 price (June 27, 2026).

The customer base adds a second fragility. Moog's own risk language is direct: "The loss of The Boeing Company as a customer or a significant reduction in the sales to The Boeing Company could adversely impact our operating results," and it warns that if defense "contracts are rescheduled or terminated, we may incur substantial costs redeploying those resources" (accession 0001628280-25-054103). The price embeds operating income compounding for roughly six to seven years near its self-funding ceiling. A defense budget pause, a commercial-aerospace build-rate cut, or a Boeing program slip would not break the company, but it would puncture the durability assumption that is doing all the work at this multiple.

Valuation

The four valuation families disagree sharply, and the disagreement is the signal. The asset family (excess-return, residual income, Graham) centers near $95 to $118. The earnings-power family (Earnings Power Value $77, FCF yield $73, earnings yield $96) centers near $77 to $96. The peer-multiple family is higher and wider, from EV/EBITDA near $180 to P/Sales and PEG approaches near $310 to $332. Against a $408.88 price, only the forward-growth methods reach it: DCF Perpetual Growth at $277 on a 14% growth input, DCF Exit Multiple at $470, and Discounted Future Market Cap at $390.

The pattern is consistent. Every frame that prices what the business has already earned lands below the quote; only the frames that extrapolate growth and hold premium multiples flat reach it. That is the definition of a durability premium: the market is paying for compounding the static models cannot see, not for a discount to demonstrated earnings.

Inverting the price sharpens the read. At $408.88 the implied bet is company-wide operating income compounding near its self-funding ceiling for roughly six to seven years, with the implied margin close to the current 12.2%, computed at a 9.7% cost of capital where each additional point of growth shifts the implied horizon about 1.8 years. The reverse-DCF reasonable-growth band lands at roughly $157 to $258, base near $193. Notably this implied duration is shorter and more reachable than the multi-decade bet some richer names require, which is consistent with the record backlog.

Catalysts

The April 2026 fiscal Q2 print is the load-bearing recent event: net sales up 13% to $1.05 billion, adjusted EPS of $2.64 versus a $2.38 estimate (an 11% beat), free cash flow of $97.8 million, and a record $3.3 billion backlog up 33%. Management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $10.60 (Businesswire, April 24, 2026; StockTitan). The forward watch items are conversion of that backlog into shipments, the 13.4% adjusted operating-margin target, and the 60% free-cash-flow conversion goal on about $4.3 billion of sales.

Analyst sentiment moved up with the results. Following the beat, analysts raised price targets, with one widely cited target lifted by $54 and an intrinsic-value estimate near $324.50, reflecting updated assumptions for growth, margin, and future multiple (Simply Wall St; TIKR). The key swing factors into the next print are defense and space program timing, commercial-aerospace build rates at Moog's airframe customers, and whether the margin and cash-conversion targets hold as volume scales.

Sources: Moog Q2 FY2026 results (Businesswire, April 2026); StockTitan 8-K coverage; Simply Wall St and TIKR analyst commentary (2026).

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Space and Defense (reported)

• CW (CURTISS-WRIGHT CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …The commercial aerospace business is primarily impacted by OEM production rates of new aircraft, while the defense business is primarily impacted by government funding and spending on new programs, primarily driven by the U.S. Government. Certain industrial businesses within our Aerospace & Industrial segment are…
• FY2025 10-K: …and the development of next-generation advanced reactors. In the aerospace defense market, sales increased $12 million primarily due to higher sales of arresting systems equipment supporting various international customers. Operating income increased $32 million, or 16%, to $231 million, primarily due to favorable…
• HEI (HEICO CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …misappropriation or obsolescence from occurring by developing new techniques and improving existing methods and processes, which we will continue on an ongoing basis as dictated by the technological needs of our business. We believe that, based on our competitive pricing, reputation for high quality, short lead time…
• FY2025 10-K: …and business aircraft, aircraft engines and related components and equipment. Due in large part to our established industry presence, we enjoy strong customer relations, name recognition and repeat business. We sell our products to a broad customer base consisting of domestic and foreign commercial and cargo…
• TDG (TransDigm Group Incorporated)
• FY2025 10-K: …transportation applications, mechanical/electromechanical actuators and controls for space applications, hydraulic/electromechanical actuators and fuel valves for land-based gas turbines, and refueling systems for heavy equipment used in mining, construction and other industries and turbine controls for the energy…
• FY2025 10-K: …on commercial aerospace and defense platforms, as well as other products. For example, TransDigm's operating units make aircraft seatbelts and cockpit security systems that keep passengers and pilots safe; parachutes that protect military personnel; and specialized equipment for the National Aeronautics and Space…
• AVAV (AEROVIRONMENT, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Israeli Aircraft Industries. ​ The defense and technology markets for the C-UAS and Precision Strike products and solutions are highly competitive, evolving with rapid technological advancements and shifting customer needs. Competitors in the LMS market include Textron Inc., RTX Corporation, Lockheed Martin…
• FY2025 10-K: …Autonomy, Teledyne Technologies, Inc., Sierra Nevada Corporation, Lockheed Martin Corporation, The Boeing Company, Textron, Inc., Shield AI, Inc., Northrop Grumman Corporation, Griffon Aerospace, Inc., L3Harris Technologies, Inc. and Israeli Aircraft Industries. ​ The defense and technology markets for the C-UAS and…
• KTOS (Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …property and past performance qualifications and by offering a wider range of comprehensive low-cost technology leading and proven products and solutions compared to our competitors. In regard to areas of specialization, our product and solution offerings include the manufacturing of specialized defense electronics;…
• FY2025 10-K: …the U.S. Air Force (USAF), the U.S. Navy (USN), the U.S. Army, the U.S. Marine Corps (USMC), the U.S. Space Force, and the U.S. Space Command, and others. Additionally, Kratos customers also include the Defense Innovation Unit ("DIU") (formerly the Defense Innovation Unit Experimental ("DIUx")), Defense Advanced…
• BWXT (BWX Technologies Inc)
• FY2025 10-K: …from operations or by raising additional capital through debt, equity or some combination thereof. Government Operations Through this segment, we engineer, design and manufacture precision naval nuclear components, reactors and nuclear fuel for the U.S. Department of Energy ("DOE")/National Nuclear Security…
• FY2025 10-K: …of maintenance outages and the cyclical nature of capital expenditures and major refurbishments for nuclear utility customers, principally in the Canadian market, which could cause variability in our financial results. 2 Table of Contents Acquisitions Aerojet Ordnance Tennessee, Inc. On January 3, 2025, we completed…
• DRS (Leonardo DRS, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and power generation and management are central to these priorities. Demand for our technologies is concentrated in areas of sustained priority for the DoW, including counter‑unmanned aircraft systems ("C-UAS"), advanced infrared sensing, network computing, and electric power and propulsion for next generation navy…
• FY2025 10-K: …ship propulsion systems, motors and variable frequency drives, force protection systems, and transportation and logistics systems for the U.S. military and allied defense customers. DRS is a leading provider of next-generation electrical propulsion systems for the U.S. Navy. We provide power conversion, control,…
• MRCY (MERCURY SYSTEMS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …product, where the customer evaluates alternative technologies and design approaches. We work with defense prime contractors as well as directly with the DoD. We help drive subsystem development and deployment in both classified and unclassified environments. The principal competitive factors in our market are…
• FY2025 10-K: …by the growing demand for domestically designed, sourced and manufactured electronics for critical aerospace, defense and intelligence applications. Our primary market positioning is centered on making commercially available technologies profoundly more accessible to the aerospace and defense sector, specifically as…

Military Aircraft (reported)

• CW (CURTISS-WRIGHT CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …The commercial aerospace business is primarily impacted by OEM production rates of new aircraft, while the defense business is primarily impacted by government funding and spending on new programs, primarily driven by the U.S. Government. Certain industrial businesses within our Aerospace & Industrial segment are…
• FY2025 10-K: …avionics and electronics, flight test equipment, and aircraft data management solutions. The Naval & Power reportable segment is comprised of businesses that primarily provide products to the naval defense and power & process markets, and to a lesser extent, the aerospace defense markets. The products offered include…
• HEI (HEICO CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …and business aircraft, aircraft engines and related components and equipment. Due in large part to our established industry presence, we enjoy strong customer relations, name recognition and repeat business. We sell our products to a broad customer base consisting of domestic and foreign commercial and cargo…
• FY2025 10-K: …composites and flight surfaces of commercial aircraft operated by domestic and foreign commercial airlines. The FSG also provides repair and overhaul services including avionics and navigation systems as well as subcomponents and other instruments utilized on military aircraft operated by the U.S. 4 Index government…
• TDG (TransDigm Group Incorporated)
• FY2025 10-K: …that they will have a reduced incentive to certify another supplier because of the cost and time of the technical design and testing certification process. In addition, we believe that the availability, dependability and safety of our products are reasons for our customers to continue long-term supplier…
• FY2025 10-K: …in the generation, amplification, transmission and reception of microwave signals, and single and two-stage servo values. Primary customers of this segment are engine and power system and subsystem suppliers, airlines, third party maintenance suppliers, military buying agencies and repair depots. Products are sold in…
• TXT (Textron Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …more than 20 service centers. In addition, more than 300 authorized independent service centers are located throughout the world. Textron Aviation-owned service centers provide customers with 24-hour service and maintenance. Textron Aviation also provides its customers with around-the-clock parts support and offers a…
• FY2025 10-K: …training on Bell-owned aircraft and certified Full Flight Simulators and Flight Training Devices, as well as maintenance training on Bell's production representative maintenance training devices. Textron Systems Segment The businesses in our Textron Systems segment develop, manufacture and integrate a variety of…
• DRS (Leonardo DRS, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …drone programs. This was offset by the decrease in revenue related to the negotiated conclusion of a legacy ground surveillance program of approximately $67 million in the period. Operating Earnings and Operating Margin In total, IMS's operating earnings decreased by $2 million, or 1.7%, from $117 million for the…
• FY2025 10-K: …ship propulsion systems, motors and variable frequency drives, force protection systems, and transportation and logistics systems for the U.S. military and allied defense customers. DRS is a leading provider of next-generation electrical propulsion systems for the U.S. Navy. We provide power conversion, control,…
• LOAR (Loar Holdings Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …for today's aircraft systems and structures. We strive to differentiate ourselves from our competitors by manufacturing products in an accurate, reliable and repeatable manner without sacrificing attention to detail, which is evident in the durability and precision of our products. We are able to keep capital…
• FY2025 10-K: …business jet platforms have been introduced by aircraft OEMs and production rates have been rising to meet this growing demand. Moreover, increased accessibility and affordability 6 Table of Contents of private aviation has driven accelerated adoption by consumers, as flyers seek alternative options to commercial air…

Commercial Aircraft (reported)

• HEI (HEICO CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …and business aircraft, aircraft engines and related components and equipment. Due in large part to our established industry presence, we enjoy strong customer relations, name recognition and repeat business. We sell our products to a broad customer base consisting of domestic and foreign commercial and cargo…
• FY2025 10-K: …a compound annual growth rate of approximately 16%. During the same period, we improved our net income from 2 Index $2.0 million to $690.4 million, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 18%. Disciplined Acquisition Strategy Acquisitions have been an important element of our growth strategy over…
• TDG (TransDigm Group Incorporated)
• FY2025 10-K: …that they will have a reduced incentive to certify another supplier because of the cost and time of the technical design and testing certification process. In addition, we believe that the availability, dependability and safety of our products are reasons for our customers to continue long-term supplier…
• FY2025 10-K: …following table sets forth, for the periods indicated, certain financial information by reportable segment, which includes a reconciliation of EBITDA As Defined to consolidated income from continuing operations before income taxes (in millions): Fiscal Year Ended September 30, 2025 Power & Control Airframe…
• CW (CURTISS-WRIGHT CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …90% of our sales in this market and are highly dependent on new aircraft production from our primary customers, Boeing and Airbus. We have significant content on the majority of the commercial aircraft programs, where our business is more leveraged to narrowbody (~60%) than widebody (~40%) commercial aircraft. We…
• FY2025 10-K: …passenger growth. While we closely monitor these industry metrics, our success and future growth in the commercial aerospace market is primarily tied to the anticipated growth in aircraft production rates (e.g., Boeing 737 and 787, Airbus A320 and A350), the timing of our order placement, continued partnering with…
• HWM (HOWMET AEROSPACE INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and the demand for our products is sensitive to, and quickly impacted by, demand for the finished goods manufactured by our customers in these industries, which may change as a result of changes in regional or worldwide economies, currency exchange rates, interest rates, inflation, energy prices or other factors…
• FY2025 10-K: …transportation market is expected to remain low with recovery beginning in the second half of 2026, given tariff-related, economic, and regulatory uncertainty in North America. Governmental policies, laws and regulations, and other economic factors, including inflation, customer requirements, tariffs, and…
• LOAR (Loar Holdings Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …our highly disciplined approach to evaluating potential acquisition targets, seeking companies with valuable intellectual property, high aftermarket content, revenue synergies, ability to cross-sell and strong customer relationships. We operate in a highly fragmented market, which has historically provided ample…
• FY2025 10-K: …were more than 30,000 commercial jet aircraft in service, compared to 17,712 commercial jet aircraft in service in 2010, and industry consultants project that future demand requires 49,000 commercial aircraft in service by 2044. The commercial aftermarket has historically produced consistent revenue. In our…
• CR (CRANE COMPANY)
• FY2025 10-K: …as well as in Part II, Item 8 under Note 4, "Segment Information," in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for sales, operating profit and assets employed by each segment. Aerospace & Advanced Technologies The Aerospace & Advanced Technologies segment supplies critical components and systems, including…
• FY2025 10-K: , the related assets, liabilities and operating results of Engineered Materials are presented as discontinued operations and, as such, have been excluded from both continuing operations and segment results for all periods presented. Throughout this Annual Report on Form 10-K, unless otherwise indicated, amounts and…

Industrial (reported)

• PH (PARKER-HANNIFIN CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …internal review and decision-making. Diversified Industrial Segment (dollars in millions) 2025 2024 Net sales North America businesses $ 8,134 $ 8,801 International businesses 5,531 5,657 Diversified Industrial Segment 13,665 14,458 Operating income North America businesses 1,891 1,963 International businesses 1,229…
• FY2025 10-K: We offer hundreds of thousands of individual part numbers, and no single product contributed more than one percent to our total net sales for the year ended June 30, 2025. Listed below are some of our principal products. Diversified Industrial Segment . Our Diversified Industrial Segment products consist of a broad…
• ITT (ITT INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …end-users. IP's customers operate in global infrastructure and natural resource markets such as energy, chemical and petrochemical, pharmaceutical, general industrial, marine, mining, pulp and paper, food and beverage, power generation and biopharmaceutical. IP's marketplace-recognized brands include Goulds Pumps TM…
• FY2025 10-K: …financial statements upon adoption. NOTE 3 SEGMENT INFORMATION The Company's segments are reported on the same basis used by our chief operating decision maker (CODM) for evaluating performance and for allocating resources. The Company's CODM is the President and Chief Executive Officer. The CODM allocates resources…
• CR (CRANE COMPANY)
• FY2025 10-K: …industrial industries. We expect these segments to outgrow the overall process market, driven by investment in sustainability and clean energy, aging infrastructure, tightening wastewater regulations and an aging population with a growing demand for healthcare. Crane has a track record of innovation and being a…
• FY2025 10-K: …market demand, general economic conditions, customer capital spending, timing and amount of contract awards and credit availability. Since our products are sold in such a wide variety of markets, we do not believe that we can reliably quantify or predict the potential effects of changes in any of the 8 Table of…
• DCI (DONALDSON COMPANY, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and OEM dealer networks. The Industrial Solutions segment is organized based on product type and consists of Industrial Air Filtration, Industrial Gases, Industrial Hydraulics, Power Generation and Aerospace and Defense products. These products are further organized by the Industrial Filtration Solutions and…
• FY2025 10-K: …of the segments. The CODM considers variances in reported results to budget and variances to prior periods to make decisions about allocating resources to each segment. The Company's CODM is the Chief Executive Officer. In fiscal 2025 and 2024, Corporate and Unallocated included a charge of $ 16.8 million and $ 6.4…
• HLIO (HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and responsiveness critical to its customers' success. Schultes provided additional manufacturing know-how and expanded our business into new end markets with attractive secular tailwinds. In May 2023, we completed the acquisition of i3 Product Development. i3PD is a custom engineering services firm, with engineers…
• FY2025 10-K: …and negatively impact our customers and dealers. We currently have operations located in geographies susceptible to severe weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, earthquakes and tornadoes. A catastrophic event, whether resulting from severe weather or otherwise, could result in the loss of the use of all or a…
• NDSN (NORDSON CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …served as Executive Vice President, Automotive OEM Segment, with Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW), a global manufacturer of a diversified range of industrial products and equipment, since 2015. Prior to that, Mr. Nagarajan served as Executive Vice President, Welding Segment, with Illinois Tool Works Inc. from…
• FY2025 10-K: …as disruptions in availability of raw materials, components, and sourced finished goods. We monitor and investigate alternative suppliers and materials based on numerous attributes including quality, service, financial stability, Nordson manufacturing location, and price. We currently source raw materials and…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.