Mirion Technologies, Inc. (MIR): what the price assumes

Generated: 2026-07-29 · Exported: 2026-08-01 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/MIR

Headline

Field	Value
Ticker	MIR
Company	Mirion Technologies, Inc.
Current price	$14.83/sh
Composition	Medical segment: Cancer care 26% / Medical segment: Other 8% / Nuclear & Safety segment: Nuclear 40% / Nuclear & Safety segment: Labs and research 13% / Nuclear & Safety segment: Other 13%

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

Field	Value
Inversion basis	whole-company
Must persist for	15.6y
Multiple paid	86x operating income

Solve inputs: computed at a 10% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2.4 years.

How unusual the bet is: high

Reference	Value
vs own history	+0.61σ
cohort percentile (of 190 peers)	97
sustained it ~10 years at this level	14%
implied end-window share	0%

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Family	Median price/FV	Models	Reads
Asset	8.48x	2	expensive
Earnings	4.85x	4	expensive
Relative	1.91x	5	expensive
Growth	1.06x	3	expensive

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.6%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=14)

Model	Family	FV	Price/FV	Applicable	Methodology
DCF Perpetual Growth	Growth	$10.51	1.41x	yes	FCF base $0.1B, growth 13% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.6%, 6yr projection
DCF Exit Multiple	Growth	$16.74	0.89x	yes	Exit EV/EBITDA: 17.3x / 19.3x / 21.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr
Relative Valuation	Relative	$7.78	1.91x	yes	P/E 39.6x (blended: static sector reference 18x + trailing (TTM) 145x), scenarios: 32.6x / 39.6x / 46.6x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 14.2x
Simple DDM	Growth	—	—	no	—
Two-Stage DDM	Growth	—	—	no	—
Simple Excess Return	Asset	$1.11	13.36x	yes	BV/sh $7.51, ROE (TTM) 1.4%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess Return	Asset	$0.60	24.72x	yes	5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% (excluded from median)
Discounted Future Market Cap	Growth	$14.01	1.06x	yes	Rev $1.0B, growth 13% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 3.0x / 3.7x / 4.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x)
Peter Lynch Fair Value	Relative	$3.50	4.24x	yes	EPS $0.10, growth 35% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=4.13 (Overvalued)
Margin Trajectory	Growth	—	—	no	—
Earnings Power Value	Earnings	—	—	no	—
Residual Income	Asset	$0.43	34.49x	yes	BV $7.51 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 1.4% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 0.9%/yr (excluded from median)
Graham Number	Asset	$4.11	3.61x	yes	√(22.5 × EPS $0.10 × BVPS $7.51) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA Relative	Relative	$9.07	1.64x	yes	EBITDA $0.19B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x
FCF Yield	Earnings	$3.61	4.11x	yes	FCF $89.2M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF Yield	Earnings	$2.90	5.11x	yes	SBC-adj FCF $0.07B (FCF $0.09B − SBC $0.02B) capitalized at Kₑ
Ben Graham Formula	Earnings	$3.23	4.59x	yes	EPS $0.10 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/B	Asset	$0.13	114.08x	yes	BV $7.51 × (ROIC 0.2% / WACC 8.6%) (excluded from median)
P/Sales Sector	Relative	$10.02	1.48x	yes	Revenue $0.98B × sector P/S 2.5x
PEG Fair Value	Relative	$3.75	3.95x	yes	EPS $0.10 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x
Earnings Yield	Earnings	$1.08	13.73x	yes	EPS $0.10 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations Multiple	Relative	—	—	no	—
Clinical Phase NPV	Growth	—	—	no	—
Merton	Asset	—	—	no	—
V5 Mechanical	—	—	—	no	—

Solvency

Field	Value
Net debt	$358.4m
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)	9.76x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)	7.71x
Share count CAGR (dilution)	7.9%
Burning cash	no

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

• Mirion makes radiation detection and measurement systems for nuclear power and a cancer-care medical line, and its 10-K notes its products are "installed at the vast majority of addressable active nuclear power re"actors, an installed base that turns each plant into a long-tail source of recurring service and replacement demand.
• The single number that defines the stock is order growth: first-quarter total orders jumped 42% to $288 million, led by nuclear, the leading indicator that decides whether the high multiple is earned or punished.
• The biggest risk is the price itself: at roughly $18.60 the market is paying well over a hundred times operating income, a level only the most durable compounders sustain, and the share count is rising rather than falling, so dilution is working against the per-share math.

Bull Case

One number anchors the whole thesis, and it is not earnings. It is orders. First-quarter total orders rose 42% to $288 million, with the strength concentrated in nuclear power, and management expects the second quarter to grow another 15% to 20% sequentially. Orders are the leading edge of revenue for a company that sells long-cycle instrumentation, so a book growing far faster than the current top line is the clearest signal that the demand environment is inflecting. If that order pace holds, the multiple that looks absurd against trailing earnings looks merely expensive against the earnings that are coming.

The franchise underneath the orders is genuinely hard to replicate. The 10-K describes products "installed at the vast majority of addressable active nuclear power re"actors, which is the kind of entrenched position that compounds quietly: every reactor with Mirion equipment is a customer for decades of calibration, replacement, and safety service. The tailwind is structural. Management points to "increased demand for nuclear due to the escalated energy needs created by cloud computing and artificial intelligence data centers" and to the recommissioning of plants as the investment community recommits to nuclear power. When the customer base is the global nuclear fleet and the fleet is expanding for the first time in a generation, the supplier that already sits inside nearly all of it is positioned unusually well.

The second leg is medical. Mirion's dosimetry and cancer-care lines, including the "innovative Instadose dosimetry platform" and its range of "eye, finger, and extremity dosimeters," grew on price increases and organic volume, a steadier business that diversifies the cyclicality of the nuclear capital cycle. Together the segments produced 27.5% revenue growth in the first quarter to $257.6 million, and management reaffirmed full-year revenue growth of roughly 22% to 24%. The bull case is that this is a durable compounder early in a multi-year nuclear up-cycle, with a medical business providing ballast. At that growth rate, the durability the price is paying for is at least plausible, which is more than the static valuation lenses can say.

Bear Case

The plainest way to put the bear case is that the company is excellent and the price has run ahead of it. Mirion earns a thin operating margin today, near 5%, and converts a modest slice of its revenue to free cash. The market is paying for a business many times more profitable than the one currently reporting. That gap is not hidden in a ratio; it is the whole valuation. Only the most aggressive growth-based method reaches the price, while every static lens, asset value, earnings power, and peer multiples, reads the stock as richly valued. When a single optimistic frame is the only one that can justify a price, the margin for disappointment is thin.

Quantify what the price assumes and the demand becomes clearer. At roughly 166 times operating income, the price implies the kind of growth Mirion is producing now, sustained for about two decades. History is unkind to that assumption: only about 14% of comparable fast-growers have held such a pace even ten years. The bull is right that the nuclear cycle is inflecting, but a cyclical inflection is not the same as twenty years of uninterrupted compounding, and the price is underwriting the latter. Even the analysts most constructive on the name peg fair value in the high twenties, which credits substantial growth and still implies the durability question is the entire debate.

Two structural risks compound the valuation risk. First, dilution: the share count is growing, not shrinking, so even strong total growth is divided among more shares each year, and a one-time CEO retention option grant just trimmed full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $0.48 to $0.55. Second, customer concentration in government and utility budgets. The 10-K flags that revenues from government customers depend on "government budgets" and that results are exposed to "delays or cancellations of customer projects." Nuclear projects are large, slow, and politically sensitive; a budget freeze or a deferred new-build does not just slow growth, it can erase a quarter of orders. The bear does not dispute the franchise. It disputes that a thin-margin company priced for two decades of perfect execution leaves any room for the ordinary friction that long-cycle, government-funded businesses always encounter.

Valuation

Start with the bet the price is making, because for Mirion it is unusually stark. At $18.60 the market is paying on the order of 166 times trailing operating income, which inverts not to a growth rate but to a duration: it implies Mirion grows at roughly its self-funding ceiling for about twenty-two years. That is the price assuming the current up-cycle is not a cycle at all but a two-decade compounding run. Only about 14% of fast-growing companies have sustained that kind of pace for even ten years. The price is paying for the rare outcome.

The methods agree on the shape of the bet. Asset value, earnings power, and peer multiples all read the stock as richly valued; only the growth-based cash-flow method reaches the price, and it does so by crediting a 13% growth rate carried forward. This is the signature of a durability or moat premium, the kind of value the static frames are structurally unable to price, because they capitalize what the business earns today rather than what an entrenched position inside the global nuclear fleet might earn over decades. That premium is not a flaw in the analysis; it is exactly what the price is paying for, isolated so a buyer can see it. The investor is not buying current earnings power. They are buying the proposition that the installed base and the nuclear tailwind convert a thin-margin company into a much more profitable one over time.

Solvency is comfortable enough not to be the binding constraint, but it is not a fortress. Net debt of about $358 million sits at roughly four times trailing operating income on an after-tax basis, the company holds nearly $400 million of liquid assets, and it generates positive free cash that management guides toward $155 million to $175 million for the year. The balance sheet can fund the growth. The pressure point for the equity is not the debt but the dilution: the share count rises each year, which means per-share value has to outrun an expanding denominator. The decisive variable for this valuation is not the next quarter's margin or the leverage ratio. It is whether the 42% order growth is the front edge of the multi-year nuclear build the price assumes, or a strong cyclical year the price has mistaken for a permanent one.

Catalysts

Mirion's first-quarter 2026 print was the kind that fuels the growth thesis. Revenue rose 27.5% to $257.6 million, beating the roughly $245 million consensus, and total orders surged 42% to $288 million on strong nuclear demand. The company reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue growth of about 22% to 24%, with adjusted EBITDA guided to $285 million to $300 million and adjusted free cash flow to $155 million to $175 million. The one blemish was adjusted EPS guidance, trimmed to $0.48 to $0.55 to absorb a one-time CEO retention option grant rather than any operating shortfall.

The forward setup is order-driven. Management expects second-quarter orders to grow another 15% to 20% sequentially, again led by favorable nuclear-market dynamics, which keeps the book-to-bill momentum intact. The structural catalyst is the nuclear demand cycle itself: the company links the strength to energy needs from cloud computing and AI data centers and to plant recommissioning, the macro trend that has re-rated the entire nuclear supply chain. Analyst opinion remains constructive on the growth story, with some fair-value estimates in the high twenties that still hinge on the durability question. The watch items into the rest of the year are the order-conversion pace, any large nuclear new-build or recommissioning awards, and whether the medical segment keeps providing steady ballast against the lumpier capital cycle.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Medical (reported)

• ST (SENSATA TECHNOLOGIES HOLDING PLC)
• FY2025 10-K: DebtInstrumentRedemptionPeriodOneMember 2022-08-29 2022-08-29 0001477294 st:SeniorNotes375Due2031Member st:DebtInstrumentRedemptionPeriodEightMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001477294 st:SeniorNotes375Due2031Member st:DebtInstrumentRedemptionPeriodNineMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001477294…
• FY2025 10-K: 101.CAL Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Calculation Linkbase Document. * 101.DEF Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Definition Linkbase Document. * 101.LAB Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Label Linkbase Document. * 101.PRE Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Presentation Linkbase Document. * 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File…
• ITRI (Itron, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:ProductMember itri:OutcomesSegmentMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000780571 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember us-gaap:ProductMember itri:ResiliencySolutionsMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000780571 us-gaap:MaterialReconcilingItemsMember us-gaap:ProductMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000780571…
• FY2025 10-K: 1 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember itri:OutcomesSegmentMember 2025-07-01 2025-09-30 0000780571 us-gaap:MaterialReconcilingItemsMember 2025-07-01 2025-09-30 0000780571 us-gaap:CorporateNonSegmentMember 2025-07-01 2025-09-30 0000780571 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember us-gaap:ProductMember itri:DeviceSolutionsMember…
• BMI (BADGER METER, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: James W. McGill /s/ Tessa M. Myers Director Tessa M. Myers /s/ James F. Stern Director James F. Stern /s/ Glen E. Tellock Director Glen E. Tellock 60
• FY2025 10-K: 31, 2025, the Company had no additional material purchase obligations other than those created in the ordinary course of business related to inventory and property, plant and equipment, which generally have terms of less than 90 days. The Company also has long-term obligations related to its postretirement plans which…
• OSIS (OSI SYSTEMS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …with litigation. These laws impact the kinds of financial arrangements we may have with hospitals or other potential purchasers of our products. They particularly impact how we structure our sales offerings, including pricing, customer support, education and training programs, physician consulting, research grants…
• FY2025 10-K: …complaint handling, documentation and other quality assurance procedures during the manufacturing process; product and promotional labeling regulations; advertising and promotion requirements; restrictions on sale, distribution or use of a device; and the Medical Device Reporting (MDR) regulation, which requires that…
• VLTO (VERALTO CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …are designed to address higher-value, design-oriented portions of the packaging management value chain, such as digital asset management ("DAM"), marketing resource management ("MRM") and product information management ("PIM"), that help our customers maximize efficiency of operations while generating an attractive…
• FY2025 10-K: …systems, some of which are provided and/or managed by third parties, to process, transmit and store electronic information (including sensitive data such as confidential business information and personal data relating to employees, customers and other business partners), and to manage or support a variety of critical…
• FTV (Fortive Corp)
• FY2025 10-K: …to be safe and effective for their intended uses and to comply with the regulations administered by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ("FDA"). The FDA regulates the design, development, research, preclinical and clinical testing, introduction, manufacture, advertising, labeling, packaging, marketing,…
• FY2025 10-K: …by the FDA and other comparable foreign authorities and, in certain circumstances, by the Federal Trade Commission and other comparable foreign regulators. Medical devices approved or cleared by the FDA, foreign regulators, or our notified body may not be promoted for undocumented, unapproved, or uncleared uses,…
• VNT (Vontier Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0001786842 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember us-gaap:ServiceMember vnt:RepairSolutionsSegmentMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0001786842 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember us-gaap:ServiceMember vnt:EnvironmentalFuelingSolutionsSegmentMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0001786842…
• FY2025 10-K: …require the controlled use of hazardous or energetic materials in the development, manufacturing or servicing of our products. We cannot assure you that our environmental, health and safety compliance program (or the compliance programs of businesses we acquire) has been or will at all times be effective. Failure to…
• BWXT (BWX Technologies Inc)
• FY2025 10-K: …with manufacturing integration. This segment's capabilities include: • steam generation and separation equipment design and development; • thermal-hydraulic design of reactor plant components; • in-plant inspection, maintenance and modification services; • nuclear component modification and replacement; • commercial…
• FY2025 10-K: …resources to fund those costs, the levels of competition from others developing similar or other competing technologies, our ability to obtain or maintain government permits or certifications, the effectiveness of production, distribution and marketing efforts, market demand, market growth or shrinkage, market…

Nuclear & Safety (reported)

• MSA (MSA)
• FY2025 10-K: …and after-market service support. We believe we compete favorably within each of our operating segments and product categories as a result of our high quality, innovative offerings and strong brand trust and recognition. 6 Table of Contents Research and Development - To achieve and maintain our market leading…
• FY2025 10-K: Institute for Occupational Safety and Health ("NIOSH"), the National Fire Protection Association ("NFPA"), American National Standards Institute ("ANSI"), International Safety Equipment Association ("ISEA") and their overseas counterparts. Key members of our management team understand the impact that these…
• OSIS (OSI SYSTEMS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …screening locations for our customers. Our customers include, among many others, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Department of State, U.S. Department of Commerce, and U.S. Department of Justice, as well the ministries and departments of many international governments,…
• FY2025 10-K: …the overall probability of detection of a range of threat items and materials. Typical threat items include explosives and weapons. Our inspection systems range in size from compact, handheld and table-top products to large systems comprising entire buildings in which trucks, shipping containers or pallets are…
• BWXT (BWX Technologies Inc)
• FY2025 10-K: …manufacturing complexes maintained by the DOE, NNSA and other federal agencies. The Government Operations segment is also a leader in the development of advanced nuclear reactors for a variety of power and propulsion applications in the space and terrestrial domains. U.S. Government customers for these applications…
• FY2025 10-K: …from operations or by raising additional capital through debt, equity or some combination thereof. Government Operations Through this segment, we engineer, design and manufacture precision naval nuclear components, reactors and nuclear fuel for the U.S. Department of Energy ("DOE")/National Nuclear Security…
• TDY (TELEDYNE TECHNOLOGIES INC)
• FY2025 10-K: Unresolved Staff Comments None. Item 1C. Cybersecurity We face multiple cybersecurity threats, including ransomware, advanced persistent threats from state-affiliated groups, insider threats, business e-mail compromise fraud attempts including variants using other messaging systems, and partner compromises. We have…
• FY2025 10-K: Member tdy:AerospaceAndDefenseElectronicsMember 2024-12-30 2025-12-28 0001094285 tdy:CommercialAndOtherMember tdy:AerospaceAndDefenseElectronicsMember 2024-12-30 2025-12-28 0001094285 tdy:AerospaceAndDefenseElectronicsMember 2024-12-30 2025-12-28 0001094285 country:US tdy:AerospaceAndDefenseElectronicsMember…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

Mirion Q1 2026 results, 2026 · Mirion FY2025 10-K · Mirion Q1 2026 valuation commentary, 2026