MDU RESOURCES GROUP, INC. (MDU): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $20.01, MDU RESOURCES GROUP, INC. (MDU) is priced for +3.9% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-24.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/MDU

Headline

FieldValue
TickerMDU
CompanyMDU RESOURCES GROUP, INC.
Sector / IndustryBasic Materials
Current price$20.01/sh
CompositionResidential utility sales 43% / Commercial utility sales 33% / Industrial utility sales 4% / Other utility sales 0% / Natural gas transportation 14% / Natural gas storage 1% / Other 8% / Intersegment eliminations -4%

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Operating margin (value-band context)9.8%
Operating margin today16.2%
Margin compression (value-band)-6.4pp
Implied growth3.9%
Multiple paid23x operating income

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 7% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~8.6pp (computed at the 7% minimum rate; the CAPM rate 6.8% sits below it).

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~21.3%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

ReferenceValue
vs own history+0.35σ
cohort percentile (of 77 peers)69
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore sits beyond what those standard frames encode.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset2.45x5expensive
Earnings2.30x2expensive
Relative0
Growth1.29x4expensive

Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 6.0%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=11)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$20.980.95xyesReference only (OCF-based, capex excluded): OCF $0.4B
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$0.00noNegative/zero FCF or EBITDA — equity value floored at $0
Relative ValuationRelativenoP/E 16.37x (blended: static sector reference 14x + trailing (TTM) 22x), scenarios: 12.3x / 16.4x / 19.6x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 9.72x
Simple DDMGrowth$21.560.93xyesDPS $0.55, g=6.5% (sustainable: ROE (TTM) × retention; not the terminal-growth assumption), ke=9.3%
Two-Stage DDMGrowth$2.278.81xyesStage 1: -27% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$9.882.03xyesBV/sh $14.03, ROE (TTM) 6.5%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$8.172.45xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$12.341.62xyesRev $1.8B, growth -0% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.7x / 2.3x / 2.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 6x)
Growth-Adjusted P/ERelativeno
Margin TrajectoryGrowthno
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$7.742.59xyesNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.28B × (1−5%) / WACC 6.0% → EPV (no growth)
Residual IncomeAsset$7.942.52xyesBV $14.03 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 6.5% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 4.2%/yr
Graham NumberAsset$17.041.17xyes√(22.5 × EPS $0.92 × BVPS $14.03) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelativenoEBITDA $0.50B × sector EV/EBITDA 8.0x
FCF YieldEarningsno
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarningsno
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$0.7725.99xyesEPS $0.92 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$4.554.40xyesBV $14.03 × (ROIC 1.9% / WACC 6.0%)
P/Sales SectorRelativenoRevenue $1.80B × sector P/S 1.5x
PEG Fair ValueRelativeno
Earnings YieldEarnings$9.952.01xyesEPS $0.92 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelativeno
Clinical Phase NPVGrowthno
MertonAssetno
V5 Mechanicalno

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

UnitRoleValuation basisRevenueReported profitValue evidenceStatus
Electricoperatingenterprise$437.8mwithheldunresolved no unit value
Natural gas distributionoperatingenterprise$1.3bwithheldunresolved no unit value
Pipelineoperatingenterprise$154.2mwithheldunresolved no unit value

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$2.5b
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)9.17x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)8.67x
Interest coverage2.6x
Share count CAGR (dilution)0.4%
Burning cashno

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

Four state commissions have already written a large part of this year's revenue. Montana approved a $10.4 million annual electric increase effective April 1, Wyoming another $5.8 million on the same date, Idaho a $13.0 million natural gas increase from the start of January, and Washington a second-year step of $10.8 million from March 1. A further Oregon case asking $16.4 million is still working through the process. None of that revenue depends on winning a customer or on the economy behaving. It depends on having spent the money and on a commission agreeing the spending was prudent, which is a very different kind of business risk from the one most industrial companies run.

That mechanism is about to be fed harder than it has been. The plan calls for roughly $3.1 billion of capital between 2026 and 2030, split about $1.1 billion into the electric utility, $1.4 billion into natural gas distribution and $0.6 billion into the pipeline. Set that against an equity value a little over four billion dollars and the scale becomes clear: this company intends to build, over five years, an amount of new rate base close to what the whole equity is worth today. Every approved dollar of it earns an allowed return for decades afterward.

Then there is the piece sitting entirely outside that plan. The proposed Bakken East pipeline would carry associated gas out of the Bakken toward eastern demand, and the open season drew binding interest of 1.4 billion cubic feet a day. Roughly 40% of the precedent agreements are executed, the State of North Dakota has committed $50 million a year for a decade in support, and the estimated cost runs $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion, incremental to everything above. A Section 7 application is targeted for the third quarter of this year, with phase one aimed at late 2029 and phase two at late 2030. Gas produced alongside Bakken oil has to go somewhere, and the alternative to a pipeline is flaring it, which North Dakota has spent a decade trying to stop. That is why a state government is writing checks toward private infrastructure.

The economics of the existing pipeline business explain why this matters more than its size suggests. In the first quarter it turned $57.1 million of revenue into $15.3 million of earnings, the richest conversion of any segment the company runs, against natural gas distribution which needed $462.5 million of revenue to produce $44.2 million. Growing the smallest and most profitable business by a multiple of its current size changes the shape of the whole company's earnings, not just the total.

The skeptic's answer is that none of this is committed yet, and that is fair. The final investment decision has not been made. But the bull case does not require the pipeline. It requires the utility to keep converting an approved capital plan into allowed returns, which it has done through four rate orders already effective this year, while management holds a long-term earnings growth target of 6% to 8% a year. The pipeline is what turns a steady regulated compounder into something considerably more interesting, and the shareholder is not paying a growth-stock entry fee for the option.

Bear Case

Start with what the shares are not asking for. Operating profit growing about 4.3% a year is what the price requires, and for a regulated business with four approved rate increases already in effect, that is not a heroic demand. The trouble shows up somewhere else entirely: check that quote against the methods that value the business as it stands rather than extrapolate it, and none of them reach it. Book value plus profitability, earnings power, peer comparison and discounted cash flow all land underneath. The asset-value methods land furthest away, with the shares at roughly 2.6 times where that family points.

The reason is not mysterious, and it is the sharpest thing a skeptic can say about this company. Book value behind each share is $13.89 and guided 2026 earnings are $0.93 to $1.00, a return on shareholders' capital near 7% and thinner than an equity holder in a leveraged, weather-exposed utility should want. A business earning less on its book than its owners should demand of it is worth less than its book, not half again more than it, and that arithmetic is why every value-oriented lens lands short. The market is not paying for the returns this company earns. It is paying for the ones it intends to earn.

Getting there means spending, and the spending is where the balance sheet starts to matter. Net debt of $2.54 billion runs at about 8.5 times operating income, and operating income covers the interest bill about 2.7 times over. Liquidity is thin: $53.3 million of cash on hand at the end of March against a five-year plan that calls for roughly $3.1 billion of capital spending. Utilities fund that gap the usual way, with a mix of new debt and new equity, and the equity portion is a bill the existing holders pay.

Now add the pipeline. Bakken East carries an estimated cost of $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion, entirely on top of the five-year plan, against a company whose whole equity is worth a little over four billion dollars. The first phase is not targeted to enter service until late 2029 and the second not until late 2030. That is four full construction seasons of capital going out before a dollar of tariff revenue comes back. The project has not reached a final investment decision, roughly 40% of its precedent agreements are executed, and a federal certificate is still ahead of it. If the remaining shippers do not sign, the growth the shares are being valued on shrinks back to the rate base.

And the near term is not free of noise either. First-quarter revenue fell about 10% against the prior year and earnings came in at $0.39 a share versus $0.40, with mild winter weather alone costing about three cents. In a business where residential and commercial gas sales dominate the revenue line, a warm December does real damage to a quarter, and no amount of regulatory protection changes that.

The fair concession is that almost none of this is speculative in the way a growth stock's story is speculative. Rate base compounds whether or not customers grow, and North Dakota has committed $50 million a year for a decade toward the pipeline. The bear case here is not that the plan fails. It is that the plan is already in the quote, financed with money the company has not yet raised, on assets it has not yet built.

Valuation

Utility valuation reduces to two questions: how much capital can the company put into the ground, and what does the regulator let it earn on that capital. On the first, this one answers loudly. On the second, the recent answer has been modest, and the gap between those two facts is the entire valuation debate.

Today's quote requires operating profit to grow about 4.3% a year over the next five, which for a regulated business is an ordinary demand rather than a stretch. Measured against the company's own record and against comparable utilities, that assumption reads as unremarkable. Yet none of the standard lenses reach today's quote. Book value plus profitability, earnings power, peer comparison and discounted cash flow all settle below it, and the asset-value methods sit furthest off, with the shares at about 2.6 times where that family lands. When a price clears every static frame while the assumption embedded in it looks pedestrian, the two statements are not in conflict. They are describing the same thing from opposite ends: the static frames measure the business that exists, and the growth assumption measures the business being built.

The arithmetic underneath is straightforward. Guidance of $0.93 to $1.00 a share for 2026 against $13.89 of book value per share is a return on shareholders' capital near 7%, below what an equity holder in a leveraged utility should require. Methods that value a company off its book and its returns therefore cannot get to a quote near one and a half times book. Methods that project the capital plan forward can. Anyone buying here is buying the plan, not the run rate.

Solvency is where that distinction acquires teeth. Net debt runs to $2.54 billion, roughly 8.5 times operating income, with operating income covering interest about 2.7 times. Cash on hand was $53.3 million at the end of the first quarter. That is a normal enough posture for a regulated utility, whose cash flows are predictable and whose regulators generally allow recovery of prudent costs, but it leaves very little internally generated slack for a five-year plan of roughly $3.1 billion, let alone the $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion Bakken East would add on top. The financing mix is the variable to watch, because the equity portion of it dilutes the per-share arithmetic that every one of these lenses runs on.

One more thing shapes the read and is easy to miss. The company that files today is a regulated electric and gas utility plus a gas pipeline, and nothing else. First-quarter revenue was $606.0 million with earnings of $80.8 million, or $0.39 a share, against a prior-year quarter carrying a materially different business mix. The trailing figures every static method consumes therefore describe a company that has only recently finished becoming what it now is, which is a genuine reason to weight the forward capital plan more heavily than a normal utility's history would justify, and a genuine reason to treat the trailing comparison with care.

Catalysts

Second-quarter results arrive before the market opens on August 6, with a call that afternoon. Two things matter in that print more than the earnings line. The first is whether the spring quarter recovered any of the roughly three cents that mild winter weather took out of the first, since gas distribution revenue is the largest single line in the business and weather is its main quarterly variable. The second is the count of executed precedent agreements on Bakken East, which stood at roughly 40% of the total when the company last reported.

The pipeline is the event with the longest reach. Management has targeted a Section 7 application with federal regulators for the third quarter of this year, which on the current calendar means it should be filed within weeks, and a final investment decision remains pending the execution of the remaining agreements. The stated capital cost is $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion, with the first phase targeted for service in late 2029 and the second in late 2030. A decision either way resets what the shares are being asked to carry, and given the size of the project relative to the company, so does any announcement of how it would be financed.

On the regulated side, the Oregon natural gas case requesting a $16.4 million annual increase is still outstanding. Management affirmed 2026 earnings guidance of $0.93 to $1.00 a share after the first quarter and left its long-term growth target of 6% to 8% a year unchanged, so the August print is as much a test of whether that guidance survives contact with a full half-year as it is a report on the quarter.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Electric (reported)

Natural gas distribution (reported)

Pipeline (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

MDU Q1 2026 earnings release, May 7, 2026 · MDU Q1 2026 earnings presentation, May 7, 2026 · MDU Resources Q2 2026 earnings webcast announcement

View the full interactive MDU report on boothcheck