MONGODB, INC. (MDB): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $375.99, MONGODB, INC. (MDB) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~17.4 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/MDB

Headline

FieldValue
TickerMDB
CompanyMONGODB, INC.
Current price$375.99/sh
CompositionAtlas-related 73% / Other subscription 23% / Services 3%

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basisrevenue-multiple
EV / sales paid11.7x
Steady-state operating margin assumed28.7%
Must persist for17.4y

The company earns no operating profit yet; the inversion runs on the revenue multiple and an assumed steady-state margin.

Solve inputs: computed at a 13.4% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2.7 years.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~8.3 years; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: elevated

ReferenceValue
vs own history-1.27σ
sustained it ~10 years at this level15%
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore sits beyond what those standard frames encode.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset11.03x2expensive
Earnings4.23x1expensive
Relative1.47x2expensive
Growth1.25x3expensive

Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=8)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$300.041.25xyesFCF base $0.7B, growth 24% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.2%, 7yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$0.00—noNegative/zero FCF or EBITDA — equity value floored at $0
Relative ValuationRelative$255.201.47xyesP/S fallback (negative EPS): Sector P/S 8.0x × TTM revenue — excluded from consensus
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth——no—
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$35.9810.45xyesBook value floor: BV/sh $35.98, ROE negative
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$32.3811.61xyesBook value with convergence: BV/sh $35.98, ROE converges to ke
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$464.350.81xyesRev $2.6B, growth 24% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 9.6x / 11.8x / 14.0x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$0.00—noNegative/zero EPS — earnings-based value floored at $0
Margin TrajectoryGrowth$221.371.70xyesMargin ramp: -1% → 22% over 7yr, rev growth 24% (input: historical growth; tapered)
Earnings Power ValueEarnings——no—
Residual IncomeAsset——no—
Graham NumberAsset——no—
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative——no—
FCF YieldEarnings$88.964.23xyesFCF $591.2M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings$15.3024.57xyesSBC-adj FCF $0.04B (FCF $0.59B − SBC $0.56B) capitalized at Kₑ (excluded from median)
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings——no—
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset——no—
P/Sales SectorRelative$255.201.47xyesRevenue $2.60B × sector P/S 8.0x
PEG Fair ValueRelative——no—
Earnings YieldEarnings——no—
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.

UnitRoleValuation basisRevenueReported profitValue evidenceStatus
MongoDB (single segment)operatingenterprise2.0B reported-currency—withheldunresolved no unit value

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

FieldValue
Net cash$1.3b
Interest coverage-37.1x
Share count CAGR (dilution)4.8%
Burning cashno

Operating profit is negative or near zero and the company has no demonstrated through-cycle (mid-cycle) operating margin to normalize against, so years-to-repay cannot be computed honestly.

Bullet Takeaways

MongoDB is a developer-first database company built around Atlas, its managed cloud platform, which now drives about three-quarters of revenue. The latest quarter posted total revenue of $687.6 million, up 25%, with Atlas up 29% and full-year guidance raised. Growth is the asset; GAAP profit is not there yet.

At about $333 the price is firmly elevated against the static frames. Asset-based and earnings-power models land far below the price (excess-return near $36, the asset family carrying a roughly ten-times premium to its own estimate), and only the growth-DCF reaches the tape. The price is a bet on durable compounding the asset frames structurally cannot see.

The inversion reads the stretch as duration, not rate. The current price implies a high-20s operating margin sustained for roughly 15 years, a long runway of expansion that the company has guided toward but not yet demonstrated.

Bull Case

Confront the loudest objection first: MongoDB is not GAAP-profitable and the stock is expensive, so why own it. The trailing operating line is negative, and the asset and earnings-power models put fair value far below the price. The bull answer is that those frames are the wrong lens for a company whose value is a growing, high-retention subscription book, and the operating results keep undermining the bear read rather than confirming it. Total revenue reached $687.6 million, up 25% year over year and ahead of the $664.5 million estimate, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.32 beating by $0.13. The company raised full-year revenue guidance. A business decelerating into its valuation would not be lifting the outlook.

Atlas is the engine, and it is accelerating where it counts. Atlas grew 29% year over year, now represents about 75% of total revenue, and added a record $117 million of year-over-year dollar growth in a single quarter, its fourth straight quarter at 29%-plus growth. The durability comes from how the revenue compounds: the 10-K explains that growth in Atlas customers "included new customers to MongoDB and existing MongoDB Enterprise Advanced customers adding incremental MongoDB Atlas workloads," and that "over time, the subscription amount for our typical Direct Sales Customer has increased." That is land-and-expand, the most defensible shape in software, where existing customers spend more each year as their applications grow on the platform.

The balance sheet removes the existential risk that usually haunts an unprofitable grower. MongoDB holds about $2.4 billion in liquid assets and roughly $1.27 billion of net cash, so it is not burning toward a raise. The model-implied path is a high-20s operating margin reached over a long runway, and the company is investing into AI-driven demand for its platform that management called out as an emerging tailwind. With a Buy consensus from 31 analysts and a roughly $394 average target above the current price (BofA at $450, Tigress at $515), the bull case is that paying for durable 25%-plus growth and a widening margin is rational, and that the static models simply cannot price a franchise that has not yet turned its growth into reported profit.

Bear Case

Begin with the structural fact the income statement keeps revealing: MongoDB has not demonstrated a through-cycle operating margin to normalize against. Trailing GAAP operating income is negative (about negative $108 million), and the company carries no mid-cycle margin the models can lean on, which is why the asset and earnings-power frames cannot value it honestly and the price leans entirely on a forward assumption. The capital structure looks pristine on net cash, but the real dilution is hiding in stock-based compensation: the share count has been growing about 4.8% a year, and the SBC-adjusted free-cash-flow frame collapses to near zero, against a price that the unadjusted FCF frame already calls roughly four times too high. A grower that funds a chunk of its economics with shares is quietly transferring value from existing holders, and at this multiple that transfer is expensive.

The valuation is the harder problem, and the inversion spells out the bet precisely. At about $333 (June 27, 2026) the price implies a high-20s operating margin sustained for roughly 15 years. That is not a one-year stretch; it is a decade-and-a-half of margin expansion that the company has guided toward but never produced.

The analyst dispersion is the tell that the durability is genuinely contested. Within the same few months, Baird cut its target from $500 to $260 while Tigress raised to $515, a spread that wide says the Street has no consensus on what the out-years look like. The bear thesis does not require Atlas to stop growing. It requires only that growth decelerates a few points sooner, or that margin expansion comes slower than the 15-year path assumes, or that AI-era database competition compresses pricing. Any of those would leave the static models right and the price wrong, and at a high-20s implied margin held for a decade and a half there is little cushion for the company to miss.

Valuation

MongoDB is valued on revenue and forward margin, not on current earnings, because there are no current earnings to capitalize. The system flags the price as elevated: asset-based, earnings-power, and peer-multiple models all say richly valued, and only the growth-DCF reaches the price, which is the classic signature of a durability premium. The asset family is the starkest: simple excess return lands near $36 against the $333 price, a premium of roughly nine to ten times, because book value is small relative to the market value of a software franchise.

The inversion frames the bet as duration rather than rate. The current trailing margin is negative, so the entire gap between $108 and $333 is the market paying ahead for a margin that does not yet exist. One data caveat: the record-basis and EDGAR operating-income figures diverge sharply here (a positive record figure versus a negative EDGAR trailing figure), so the operating margin is best read through the revenue-multiple lens the inversion uses rather than a trailing operating number.

The honest summary is that the conservative methods put fair value roughly one-third of the price, and the forward methods reach it only by assuming durable, multi-year compounding and steady margin expansion. The reliability of the solve is rated ok, and the sensitivity is modest at about 2.4 points of implied growth per point of cost of capital, so the bet is less about rates than about whether the growth-and-margin story plays out over a long horizon. A buyer here is underwriting roughly 15 years of execution, not buying a discount to any static measure of value.

Catalysts

The latest quarter beat and the guide went up. Total revenue of $687.6 million rose 25% year over year and topped the $664.5 million estimate, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.32 beating by $0.13. Atlas grew 29%, reached about 75% of revenue, and added a record $117 million of year-over-year dollar growth in the quarter, its fourth straight quarter above 29% growth.

Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $2.92 billion to $2.96 billion (from $2.86 billion to $2.90 billion) and guided the next quarter to $729 million to $734 million, about 23% to 24% growth, with Atlas up about 26%. The company cited strong enterprise demand and emerging AI use cases for its platform as tailwinds.

Analyst sentiment is bullish but deeply split on valuation. The consensus is a Buy from 31 analysts with a roughly $394 average target. BofA raised to $450 and Tigress to $515, while earlier in the year Baird cut its target from $500 to $260, a dispersion that captures the debate over the durability of the growth and the pace of margin expansion.

The forward watch items are Atlas growth and net dollar retention, the trajectory toward GAAP profitability and the size of stock-based compensation, the conversion of AI demand into workloads, and any sign of decelerating customer ramp. Each maps to whether the long-duration margin bet embedded in the price holds.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

MongoDB (single segment) (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

View the full interactive MDB report on boothcheck