MACERICH CO (MAC): what the price assumes

Generated: 2026-07-29 · Exported: 2026-08-01 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/MAC

Headline

Field	Value
Ticker	MAC
Company	MACERICH CO
Current price	$26.32/sh

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

Field	Value
Inversion basis	reit
Top-of-range FFO growth must hold for	10.7y
Price-to-FFO	22.1x
FFO yield	4.5%

Solve inputs: computed at a 13.4% cost of equity; growth searched up to the 15% ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2.4 years.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~9%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: extreme

Reference	Value
vs own history	+0.31σ
cohort percentile (of 105 peers)	87
sustained it ~10 years at this level	53%
implied end-window share	0%

Valuation X-Ray

Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore sits beyond what those standard frames encode.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Family	Median price/FV	Models	Reads
Asset	2.79x	3	expensive
Earnings	—	0	—
Relative	1.52x	3	expensive
Growth	4.92x	2	expensive

Families that call it expensive: Asset, Relative, Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.0%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=8)

Model	Family	FV	Price/FV	Applicable	Methodology
DCF Perpetual Growth	Growth	$17.05	1.54x	no	FCF base $0.3B, growth 6% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 7.0%, 6yr projection
DCF Exit Multiple	Growth	$18.27	1.44x	no	Exit EV/EBITDA: 29.9x / 31.9x / 33.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr
Relative Valuation	Relative	$28.35	0.93x	yes	P/E 35x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 29.2x / 35.0x / 40.8x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 23.58x
Simple DDM	Growth	$4.19	6.28x	yes	DPS $0.76, g=-7.5% (sustainable: ROE (TTM) × retention; not the terminal-growth assumption), ke=9.3%
Two-Stage DDM	Growth	$7.40	3.56x	yes	Stage 1: -10% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual
Simple Excess Return	Asset	$9.45	2.79x	yes	Reference only (book value floor): BV/sh $9.45, ROE negative
Two-Stage Excess Return	Asset	$8.50	3.10x	yes	Reference only (book value with convergence): BV/sh $9.45, ROE converges to ke
Discounted Future Market Cap	Growth	$14.35	1.83x	no	Rev $1.0B, growth 6% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 5.6x / 6.7x / 7.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Growth-Adjusted P/E	Relative	—	—	no	—
Margin Trajectory	Growth	—	—	no	—
Earnings Power Value	Earnings	—	—	no	—
Residual Income	Asset	—	—	no	—
Graham Number	Asset	$15.97	1.65x	yes	√(22.5 × FFO/share $1.20 × BVPS $9.45) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA Relative	Relative	$9.73	2.71x	yes	EBITDA $0.36B × sector EV/EBITDA 20.0x
FCF Yield	Earnings	$0.01	2632.00x	yes	FCF $310.5M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity (excluded from median)
SBC-Adj FCF Yield	Earnings	$0.01	2632.00x	yes	SBC-adj FCF $0.29B (FCF $0.31B − SBC $0.02B) capitalized at Kₑ (excluded from median)
Ben Graham Formula	Earnings	$1.01	26.06x	yes	FFO/share $1.20 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median)
ROIC-Justified P/B	Asset	—	—	no	—
P/Sales Sector	Relative	$23.40	1.12x	no	Revenue $1.01B × sector P/S 6.0x
PEG Fair Value	Relative	—	—	no	—
Earnings Yield	Earnings	$12.97	2.03x	no	FFO/share $1.20 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations Multiple	Relative	$17.27	1.52x	yes	FFO/share $1.20 × 14.3x P/FFO (route cohort median, n=85); FFO $0.31B (FFO incl. D&A + impairments, FY2025, companyfacts), shares 258M
Clinical Phase NPV	Growth	—	—	no	—
Merton	Asset	—	—	no	—
V5 Mechanical	—	—	—	no	—

Solvency

Field	Value
Funds from operations (trailing)	$310.6m
Share count CAGR (dilution)	4.7%
Burning cash	no

REIT basis: leverage is read against funds from operations (FFO), not depreciation-gutted operating income. The header's implied growth runs on ADJUSTED FFO — FFO minus recurring maintenance capex — so the header's multiple and this leverage ratio use bases that differ by that capex; neither substitutes for the other. Net debt could not be resolved from the corporate debt tags in the filings (REIT notes and mortgage debt are often tagged outside the corporate ladder), so the leverage ratio is withheld rather than rendered from incomplete tags. Interest expense is not separately reported in the cached statements, so fixed-charge coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

The balance sheet is the whole story here. Net debt to EBITDA has fallen from 8.76 times at the end of 2023 to 7.76 times by March 2026, with a stated target near 6.0 times, and management has completed roughly $1.3 billion of dispositions to get there.

Leasing is filling the malls. Q1 2026 FFO as adjusted of $0.34 per share beat consensus, 1.6 million square feet was signed, and a signed-not-open pipeline of $116 million in contracted revenue is set to open largely in the back half.

The price already prices the recovery. At $23.61 the asset-value and forward-growth frames both read the stock as expensive, and the embedded bet runs roughly ten years out, so the buyer is underwriting a long deleveraging arc with little room for error.

Bull Case

The balance sheet tells you where management's confidence actually sits, and at Macerich the deleveraging is real and measurable. Net debt to EBITDA has dropped from 8.76 times at year-end 2023 to 7.76 times as of March 31, 2026, a 1.5-turn improvement, with a stated target of roughly 6.0 times. The company has completed about $1.3 billion of dispositions and targets another $300 million to $400 million in 2026. The 10-K documents the refinancing machine behind this: the company "continues to actively address its near-term, non-recourse loan maturities, with eleven completed transactions since the beginning of 2024, totaling approximately $2.1 billion" (FY2025 10-K, accession 0000912242-26-000016). A management team that is selling assets and refinancing maturities on schedule is acting like a team that believes the equity is worth saving.

The operating engine underneath the debt is improving, not deteriorating. Q1 2026 FFO as adjusted came in at $0.34 per diluted share, beating consensus by nearly 10%, with reported occupancy at 93.4% and leased occupancy up 80 basis points year over year. Leasing momentum was strong: 1.6 million square feet signed in the quarter, including 700,000 square feet of new deals, and a signed-not-open pipeline carrying $116 million of cumulative contracted revenue. That pipeline is the bull's clearest near-term lever, because the 10-K notes the company expects to "experience organic growth in EBITDA as tenants in its lease pipeline open for business" (FY2025 10-K, accession 0000912242-26-000016). Revenue already signed, not yet open, is the most visible form of forward growth a mall owner can point to.

The structure of the debt limits the downside. The 10-K confirms that "all of the Company's mortgage notes payable are secured by the properties on which they are placed and are non-recourse to the Company" (FY2025 10-K, accession 0000912242-26-000016), which means a single troubled asset can be handed back to its lender without sinking the whole enterprise. Pair non-recourse debt with a Class A mall focus, a 2028 plan targeting 88% to 89% occupancy and low-to-mid 6 times leverage, and guidance for at least 3% go-forward NOI growth in 2026, and the bull case is a credible, self-funded recovery that the analyst price target has begun to follow upward.

Bear Case

The structural truth a Macerich holder would rather not face is plain: this is a leveraged owner of enclosed malls, a real-estate category in long secular decline, and the price already assumes the turnaround works. The cheap-because-of-what-is-deteriorating risk is acute here. Even after meaningful progress, net debt to EBITDA is still 7.76 times, a level most equity investors would call distressed in any other property type, and net debt of roughly $4.7 billion dwarfs trailing funds from operations near $311 million. The deleveraging that bulls celebrate is necessary precisely because the leverage was, and remains, dangerous.

Against the $23.61 price (June 27, 2026), the asset-based and forward-growth families both read the stock as expensive, and the blended X-ray figure lands near $9.45, far below the price. The priced-in characterization is extreme, with an implied bet stretching roughly ten years out, which is the model's way of saying the price requires the Path Forward Plan to execute almost perfectly over a long horizon. The 10-K itself cautions that the steps "the Company has or will undertake while implementing the Path Forward Plan may vary and evolve" (FY2025 10-K, accession 0000912242-26-000016), an honest acknowledgment that the plan is a path, not a guarantee.

The refinancing dependency is the quiet fragility. The same 10-K that touts completed refinancings also discloses that the company "expects all loan maturities during the next twelve months will be refinanced" (FY2025 10-K, accession 0000912242-26-000016), which is fine in an accommodative market and a problem if rates rise or lenders retreat from retail real estate. Non-recourse debt protects the parent from any single property, but it also means handing keys back shrinks the asset base and the FFO that supports the equity. The dividend yield sits near 2.9%, below peer averages, so income offers little cushion while the deleveraging plays out. At this price the buyer is not getting cheap mall real estate; the buyer is paying ahead of a ten-year recovery in a declining category carried on still-high leverage.

Valuation

Macerich is valued on funds from operations, and the price sits well ahead of where most methods land. Against the $23.61 quote, the earnings-power family supports the price, but the asset-based and forward-growth families both flag it as expensive, and the blended X-ray figure across five methods lands near $9.45. That is a large gap, and it reflects the central tension: the market is paying for a recovery that the conservative, present-tense methods do not yet see in the numbers. The priced-in characterization is extreme, with an implied duration of roughly ten years, meaning the price embeds a long execution runway rather than current cash flow.

The leverage is the dominant valuation input and it cannot be rendered cleanly. Net debt of about $4.7 billion against trailing FFO near $311 million is the headline, but because interest expense is not separately broken out in the cached statements, fixed-charge coverage cannot be computed, and leverage is read against FFO rather than a precise ratio. On an EBITDA basis the company reports 7.76 times net debt to EBITDA as of March 2026, improved from 8.76 times but still high. The refinancing cadence documented in the 10-K, eleven transactions totaling roughly $2.1 billion since 2024 (FY2025 10-K, accession 0000912242-26-000016), is what keeps the capital structure standing.

The honest read is that this is a turnaround equity, not a value-with-a-floor REIT. The earnings-power support says the in-place cash flow has stabilized; the asset and growth methods say you are paying for improvement not yet delivered. The signed-not-open pipeline of $116 million is the strongest argument that forward FFO rises from here, and the 2028 targets of 88% to 89% occupancy and low-to-mid 6 times leverage are the milestones that would justify the price. The buyer is underwriting that deleveraging plus pipeline opening lifts FFO faster than the secular drag on malls erodes it, over a long horizon, with a thin dividend yield as the only interim payment.

Catalysts

Q1 2026 results (reported May 2026) advanced the turnaround narrative. FFO as adjusted of $0.34 per diluted share matched the year-ago level and beat the Zacks consensus by nearly 10%, with reported occupancy at 93.4% and leased occupancy up 80 basis points year over year. Leasing was the standout: 1.6 million square feet signed including 700,000 square feet of new deals, and a signed-not-open pipeline of $116 million in cumulative contracted revenue. Guidance calls for at least 3% go-forward NOI growth in 2026, weighted to the back half as signed-not-open projects open, which makes the timing of those openings the key near-term catalyst.

The deleveraging milestones are the structural catalyst. Net debt to EBITDA fell to 7.76 times by March 31, 2026 from 8.76 times at year-end 2023, the company has completed roughly $1.3 billion of dispositions with another $300 million to $400 million targeted for 2026, and the Path Forward Plan targets low-to-mid 6 times leverage and 88% to 89% physical permanent occupancy by 2028. Each disposition, refinancing, and step-down in the leverage ratio is a discrete event the market can mark progress against, and the next twelve months of loan maturities the 10-K flags for refinancing are the watch items on the risk side.

Sentiment has begun to follow the execution. Analyst price targets have moved up modestly, from roughly $21.63 to $23.13, as the Street responds to the balance-sheet progress and portfolio simplification, with a mix of optimism on execution and ongoing caution on valuation and long-term earnings power. The quarterly dividend of $0.17 per share, a roughly 2.9% yield, is the steady but modest interim return. The catalysts that would re-rate the stock are continued occupancy gains, the back-half opening of the signed-not-open pipeline, and a clear line of sight to the 6 times leverage target.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Core business (reported)

• SPG (SIMON PROPERTY GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: Our primary business is the ownership, development and management of premier shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations, which consist primarily of malls, Premium Outlets, and The Mills. We identify our operating segments based on how our chief operating decision maker ("CODM") allocates resources,…
• FY2025 10-K: …joint venture properties as well as third parties. Management fee revenue is earned based on a contractual percentage of joint venture property revenue. Development fee revenue is earned on a contractual percentage of hard costs to develop a property. Leasing fee revenue is earned on a contractual per square foot…
• SKT (TANGER INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …affect our ability to pay cash dividends to our shareholders. We operate in a manner intended to enable us to qualify as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. In order for us to maintain our qualification as a REIT, we must pay dividends to our shareholders aggregating annually at least 90% of our taxable income.…
• FY2025 10-K: T under the Internal Revenue Code. A REIT is required to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders each year. We intend to continue to qualify as a REIT and to distribute substantially all of our taxable income to our shareholders through the payment of regular quarterly dividends. Certain of…
• CBL (CBL & ASSOCIATES PROPERTIES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …or monetized in our minimum or overage rents. We compete with other major real estate investors with significant capital for attractive investment opportunities. These competitors include other REITs, investment banking firms, and private and institutional investors, some of whom have greater financial resources or…
• FY2025 10-K: …investment in a non-REIT entity that pays dividends, thereby reducing the demand and market price of shares of our common stock. RISKS RELATED TO GEOGRAPHIC CONCENTRATIONS Since our properties are located principally in the southeastern and midwestern United States, our financial position, results of operations and…
• KIM (KIMCO REALTY CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …disclosure on FFO beginning on page 44 ). • Same property net operating income ("Same property NOI") was $1.57 billion and $1.52 billion for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively, an increase of 3.0% (see additional disclosure on Same property NOI beginning on page 45 ). • Executed 1,557 new…
• FY2025 10-K: …to competition from e-commerce (e.g., groceries, essential retailers, restaurants and service providers), but there can be no assurance that we will be successful in modifying our properties, diversifying our tenant composition and/or adapting our leasing practices. Our expenses may remain constant or increase, even…
• BRX (Brixmor Property Group Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and successfully integrate, operate, reposition, or redevelop such properties is subject to several risks. We may be unable to acquire desired properties because of competition from other real estate investors, including from other well-capitalized REITs and institutional investment funds. Even if we are able to…
• FY2025 10-K: Our primary objective is to maximize total returns to our stockholders through consistent, sustainable growth in cash flow. Our key strategies to achieve this objective include proactively managing our Portfolio to drive internal growth, pursuing value-enhancing reinvestment opportunities, and prudently executing on…
• REG (REGENCY CENTERS CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …• Generate same property NOI growth that over the long-term consistently ranks at or near the top of our shopping center peers; • Reinvest free cash flow and portfolio enhancement disposition proceeds into high-quality developments, redevelopments and acquisitions in a long term accretive manner; • Maintain a…
• FY2025 10-K: …will generate sustainable revenue growth and attractive returns. It is management's intent that all retail shopping centers will be owned or developed for investment purposes; however, the Company may decide to sell all or a portion of a development upon completion. The Company's revenues and net income are generated…
• FRT (FEDERAL REALTY INVESTMENT TRUST)
• FY2025 10-K: …properties. We believe that it will be difficult to fund our expected growth with cash from operating activities 13 Table of Contents because, in addition to other requirements, we are generally required to distribute to our shareholders at least 90% of our taxable income each year to continue to qualify as a REIT…
• FY2025 10-K: EIT in the state of Maryland in 1999. In January of 2022, we consummated the UPREIT reorganization described in the Explanatory Note at the beginning of this Annual Report. We operate in a manner intended to qualify as a REIT for tax purposes pursuant to provisions of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (the…
• KRG (KITE REALTY GROUP TRUST)
• FY2025 10-K: …on an individual basis; therefore, each property represents an individual operating segment. The CODM does not distinguish or group our operations on a geographical or any F-42 Table of Contents KITE REALTY GROUP TRUST AND KITE REALTY GROUP, L.P. AND SUBSIDIARIES NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS other basis…
• FY2025 10-K: …of the property, the tax consequences of the transaction, and other related factors; 7 Table of Contents • opportunities for strengthening the tenant mix at our properties through the placement of anchor tenants such as grocers, value retailers, hardware stores, or sporting goods retailers, as well as further…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.