MID-AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES, INC. (MAA): what the price requires
At today's price, MID-AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES, INC. (MAA) is priced for +6.1% FFO growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/MAA
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | MAA |
| Company | MID-AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES, INC. |
| Current price | $136.05/sh |
| Composition | Same Store 94% / Non-Same Store and Other 6% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | reit |
| Implied FFO growth | 6.1% |
| Price-to-FFO | 14.9x |
| FFO yield | 6.7% |
Solve inputs: computed at a 9.1% cost of equity with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of equity moves the implied growth ~4.6pp.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.16σ |
| cohort percentile (of 88 peers) | 83 |
| sustained it ~5 years at this level | 66% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 4.10x | 4 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.38x | 3 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.22x | 6 | expensive |
| Growth | 1.17x | 5 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.3%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=18)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $99.46 | 1.37x | yes | FCF base $1.0B, growth 1% (input: historical growth), terminal g 0.8%, WACC 9.3%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $126.65 | 1.07x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 23.6x / 25.6x / 27.6x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $181.81 | 0.75x | yes | P/E 26.96x (blended: static sector reference 35x + trailing (TTM) 15x), scenarios: 22.9x / 27.0x / 31.0x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 20x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | $272.45 | 0.50x | yes | DPS $6.13, g=6.8% (sustainable: ROE (TTM) × retention; not the terminal-growth assumption), ke=9.3% |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $116.67 | 1.17x | yes | Stage 1: 5% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $36.08 | 3.77x | yes | BV/sh $48.74, ROE (TTM) 6.8%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $30.73 | 4.43x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $88.47 | 1.54x | yes | Rev $2.2B, growth 1% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 6.1x / 7.2x / 8.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $109.56 | 1.24x | yes | FFO/share $9.13, growth 5% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 10y median), PEG=8.50 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | $29.97 | 4.54x | yes | BV $48.74 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 6.8% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 4.5%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $100.07 | 1.36x | yes | √(22.5 × FFO/share $9.13 × BVPS $48.74) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $105.88 | 1.28x | yes | EBITDA $0.63B × sector EV/EBITDA 20.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $93.02 | 1.46x | yes | FCF $1031.2M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $138.42 | 0.98x | yes | FFO/share $9.13 × (8.5 + 2×4.8%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $113.77 | 1.20x | yes | Revenue $2.21B × sector P/S 6.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $65.66 | 2.07x | yes | FFO/share $9.13 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 4.8% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 10y median)) → PE 7.2x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $98.70 | 1.38x | yes | FFO/share $9.13 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | $129.41 | 1.05x | yes | FFO/share $9.13 × 14.2x P/FFO (route cohort median, n=85); FFO $1.07B (FFO incl. D&A + impairments, FY2025, companyfacts), shares 117M |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt (REIT basis) | $5.6b |
| Net debt / FFO | 5.24x |
| Funds from operations (trailing) | $1.1b |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 0.2% |
| Burning cash | no |
REIT basis: leverage is read against funds from operations (FFO), not depreciation-gutted operating income. The header's implied growth runs on ADJUSTED FFO — FFO minus recurring maintenance capex — so the header's multiple and this leverage ratio use bases that differ by that capex; neither substitutes for the other. Interest expense is not separately reported in the cached statements, so fixed-charge coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
The number that decides the thesis is the supply pipeline. Sun Belt multifamily starts have fallen for twelve straight quarters, and if that holds, MAA's flat-to-negative same-store NOI today becomes the trough rather than the trend.
The cash flow is steady through the soft patch. Q1 2026 Core FFO was $2.13 per share, two cents ahead of guidance, on 95.5% occupancy, and the dividend carries a 27-year unbroken record at a roughly 4.6% yield.
The price reads as expensive against the value of the buildings and the current earnings stream. At $132.49 it is supported only by the peer-multiple frame, so it is a bet that the rent cycle turns up before the asset-value gap matters.
Bull Case
The single most decisive variable for MAA is not in this quarter's rent roll, it is in the construction-starts data, and it is moving the right way. Sun Belt multifamily supply has declined for twelve consecutive quarters, with new starts running below long-term averages. That matters because the soft same-store numbers MAA is reporting now are the lagging effect of the prior supply wave being absorbed. If starts stay depressed, the apartments competing with MAA in 2027 and 2028 simply will not exist, and pricing power returns to the landlord. The whole bull case rests on that one chart: today's flat NOI is the bottom of a supply cycle, not a structural decline. If supply discipline holds, the verdict flips from value-trap to recovery.
While waiting for that turn, the cash flow holds up. Q1 2026 Core FFO came in at $2.13 per diluted share, two cents ahead of guidance, on average physical occupancy of 95.5% and effective rent of $1,685. Full-year 2026 Core FFO is guided to $8.37 to $8.69, so even at the trough of the rent cycle the company throws off a substantial, covered cash stream. The 10-K's segment disclosure shows the same-store portfolio carrying the business, with the Same Store segment generating only a 0.1% revenue decrease for 2025 (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-041208), a remarkably shallow dip for a year of heavy supply.
The balance sheet and the dividend are the ballast. MAA carries a 27-year record of uninterrupted dividends at roughly a 4.6% yield, supported by a moderate FFO payout ratio and low fixed-rate debt costs. The company describes a disciplined capital-allocation approach in its 10-K, making "new investments when we believe it will be accretive to shareholder value over the life of the investments" (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-041208), and it carries a roughly $1 billion development pipeline to feed future FFO. A high-quality Sun Belt apartment owner with a fortress dividend, occupancy near 95.5%, and a supply backdrop that is clearing is the kind of name where patience is paid to wait for the cycle.
Bear Case
The uncomfortable qualitative truth is that MAA is concentrated in exactly the markets that overbuilt, and the rent cycle has not turned yet. The Sun Belt that drove the company's growth in the prior decade attracted a flood of new apartment construction, and that supply is still being digested at the tenant's advantage, not the landlord's. Same-store revenue fell 0.4% in Q1 2026 and same-store NOI declined 1.3%, with full-year same-store NOI guided to a range of negative 1.7% to positive 0.3%. A REIT whose core portfolio is guided to flat-to-down net operating income is, for now, not growing, and the bull case requires forecasting a supply turn that has not shown up in the numbers.
The valuation makes the wait expensive. Against the $132.49 price (June 27, 2026), the asset-based and earnings-power families both read the stock as richly valued, and only the relative-multiple family supports the price. The 10-K is explicit about the forces pressing on the operating model, warning that competition and market demand can "affect occupancy or rental rates and/or require rent concessions in order to lease apartments" and that operating costs including "real estate taxes, utilities and insurance premiums" may rise "due to inflation and other factors, which may not be offset by increased rental rates" (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-041208). Concessions and cost inflation are precisely what compress NOI in an oversupplied market, and the filing names both.
The analyst tape reflects the skepticism. Scotiabank rates the stock sector underperform with a price target cut to $120, below the current price, and UBS sits neutral at $132. The bull thesis is entirely a timing bet: that supply discipline lifts rents before the asset-value discount and the flat NOI matter. If the supply turn slips a year, or if elevated insurance and tax costs keep eating the modest rent gains the company guides to (around 0.35% effective rent growth), the buyer is holding a fully-priced, no-growth REIT collecting a 4.6% yield while waiting for a recovery the market has already partly priced in. Cheap it is not; patient it requires you to be.
Valuation
MAA is valued on funds from operations, the right lens for a REIT, and the price reads as full. Against the $132.49 quote, the relative-multiple family supports the price while the asset-based and earnings-power families both flag it as expensive. The blended X-ray figure across seven methods lands near $95, well below the price, which reflects how much the asset-value and capitalized-earnings approaches discount a portfolio in a flat-NOI year. The priced-in characterization is within range overall, but the support is narrow: the market is paying a peer-consistent FFO multiple and little more.
The FFO stream itself is the anchor. Trailing FFO of roughly $1.07 billion backs full-year 2026 Core FFO guidance of $8.37 to $8.69 per share, which puts the stock around 15 to 16 times Core FFO, a multiple consistent with a quality apartment REIT but not a discounted one. Because the company's leverage is structured as REIT notes and mortgage debt rather than a clean corporate ladder, a precise net-debt ratio cannot be resolved from the corporate tags in the filings, so leverage is read against FFO rather than rendered from incomplete data. What the filings do confirm is the segment structure, with the Same Store segment driving the portfolio (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-041208).
The valuation tension is a timing question, not a solvency one. The dividend's 27-year record and the moderate payout ratio say the cash flow is durable; the asset-value and earnings-power methods say you are paying ahead of where the current numbers justify. The buyer is underwriting that the twelve-quarter supply decline converts into rent growth and rising NOI within a reasonable horizon. If it does, the relative-multiple support becomes a floor and the asset gap closes from rising FFO. If the supply turn is slow, the price sits exposed to the more conservative methods that already say expensive, cushioned mainly by the 4.6% yield.
Catalysts
Q1 2026 results (reported May 2026) showed resilient cash flow against a soft operating backdrop. Core FFO of $2.13 per diluted share beat guidance by two cents, average physical occupancy held at 95.5%, and effective rent averaged $1,685. The operating detail was weaker: same-store revenue fell 0.4%, expenses rose 1.3%, and same-store NOI declined 1.3%. Management reaffirmed the midpoint of its same-store and Core FFO guidance while tightening the Core FFO range to $8.37 to $8.69, so the cadence of same-store NOI through the year is the key data series to watch.
The supply cycle is the dominant multi-quarter catalyst. Multifamily supply has declined for twelve consecutive quarters with new starts below long-term averages, which supports a multi-year occupancy and rent recovery if it persists, with occupancy already noted near pre-pandemic levels. MAA's roughly $1 billion development pipeline positions it to add accretive units into that tightening market. Each quarter's read on new-supply absorption in MAA's core Sun Belt markets is the signal that either confirms or delays the recovery thesis.
The near-term sentiment is split, which sets up catalyst sensitivity. Analysts hold a Moderate Buy consensus with a mean price target near $141, but the dispersion is wide: Scotiabank rates the stock sector underperform with a $120 target, and UBS sits neutral at $132. The 4.6% dividend yield, backed by a 27-year uninterrupted record, is the steady support underneath. Any inflection in same-store rent growth, or a clearer sign that the supply decline is translating into pricing power, would be the catalyst that closes the gap between the skeptics and the bulls.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Same Store / Non-Same Store and Other (reported)
- AVB (AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- EQR (EQUITY RESIDENTIAL)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ESS (ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CPT (CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- UDR (UDR, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- IRT (INDEPENDENCE REALTY TRUST, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- NXRT (NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- AMH (American Homes 4 Rent)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.