LIQUIDIA CORPORATION (LQDA): what the price assumes

Generated: 2026-07-29 · Exported: 2026-08-01 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/LQDA

Headline

Field	Value
Ticker	LQDA
Company	LIQUIDIA CORPORATION
Current price	$85.53/sh
Composition	Product sales, net 94% / Service revenue, net 6%

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

Field	Value
Inversion basis	whole-company
Must persist for	20.2y
Multiple paid	163x operating income

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.8% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2.8 years.

How unusual the bet is: elevated

Reference	Value
vs own history	-0.64σ
sustained it ~10 years at this level	14%
implied end-window share	0%

Valuation X-Ray

Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore sits beyond what those standard frames encode.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Family	Median price/FV	Models	Reads
Asset	7.00x	1	expensive
Earnings	15.04x	2	expensive
Relative	7.86x	4	expensive
Growth	1.52x	3	expensive

Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative, Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=10)

Model	Family	FV	Price/FV	Applicable	Methodology
DCF Perpetual Growth	Growth	$23.52	3.64x	yes	FCF base $0.1B, growth 25% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.2%, 7yr projection
DCF Exit Multiple	Growth	$88.69	0.96x	yes	Exit EV/EBITDA: 156.7x / 159.7x / 162.7x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr
Relative Valuation	Relative	$17.70	4.83x	yes	P/E 52.8x (blended: static sector reference 24x + trailing (TTM) 341x), scenarios: 42.2x / 52.8x / 63.4x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 35.2x
Simple DDM	Growth	—	—	no	—
Two-Stage DDM	Growth	—	—	no	—
Simple Excess Return	Asset	$2.71	31.56x	yes	BV/sh $1.22, ROE (TTM) 20.5%, ke 9.3% (excluded from median)
Two-Stage Excess Return	Asset	$4.00	21.38x	yes	5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% (excluded from median)
Discounted Future Market Cap	Growth	$56.40	1.52x	yes	Rev $0.3B, growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 9.6x / 12.0x / 14.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x)
Peter Lynch Fair Value	Relative	$2.04	41.92x	yes	EPS $0.17, growth 1% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=327.39 (Overvalued) (excluded from median)
Margin Trajectory	Growth	—	—	no	—
Earnings Power Value	Earnings	—	—	no	—
Residual Income	Asset	$3.84	22.27x	yes	BV $1.22 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 20.5% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr (excluded from median)
Graham Number	Asset	$2.16	39.59x	yes	√(22.5 × EPS $0.17 × BVPS $1.22) — Graham's conservative floor (excluded from median)
EV/EBITDA Relative	Relative	$9.37	9.13x	yes	EBITDA $0.05B × sector EV/EBITDA 16.0x
FCF Yield	Earnings	$5.90	14.50x	yes	FCF $41.1M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF Yield	Earnings	$2.10	40.73x	yes	SBC-adj FCF $0.01B (FCF $0.04B − SBC $0.03B) capitalized at Kₑ (excluded from median)
Ben Graham Formula	Earnings	$5.49	15.58x	yes	EPS $0.17 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/B	Asset	$12.21	7.00x	yes	BV $1.22 × (ROIC 197.4% / WACC 9.2%)
P/Sales Sector	Relative	$12.96	6.60x	yes	Revenue $0.29B × sector P/S 4.0x
PEG Fair Value	Relative	$6.37	13.43x	yes	EPS $0.17 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x
Earnings Yield	Earnings	$1.84	46.48x	yes	EPS $0.17 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) (excluded from median)
Funds From Operations Multiple	Relative	—	—	no	—
Clinical Phase NPV	Growth	—	—	no	—
Merton	Asset	—	—	no	—
V5 Mechanical	—	—	—	no	—

Solvency

Field	Value
Net cash	$222.8m
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)	-5.25x (net cash)
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)	-4.89x (net cash)
Interest coverage	1.8x
Share count CAGR (dilution)	17.8%
Burning cash	no

Bullet Takeaways

• YUTREPIA, launched in June 2025, drove $130 million of first-quarter 2026 revenue and a third straight profitable quarter, capturing about 23% of the inhaled prostacyclin segment with more than 4,500 unique patient prescriptions through April.
• The biggest risk is the United Therapeutics patent litigation: the 10-K warns the company could be forced to stop promoting YUTREPIA for one or more indications until patents expire, a binary outcome underneath a stock priced for a multi-year ramp.
• Watch quarterly net product sales and the litigation docket: the price assumes both continued share gains and a clean legal resolution, and the company holds about $223 million of net cash to fund the launch and defense.

Bull Case

Liquidia entered its commercial life with no debt and a cash cushion, which is the difference between a launch that can play offense and one that lives quarter to quarter. The company holds about $223 million of cash against zero gross debt, a net-cash position that funds the YUTREPIA rollout without forcing dilutive raises at every milestone. That balance sheet is what lets management invest in the sales effort and defend the product in court at the same time. For a company that has just flipped to profitability, having the war chest already in hand removes the single most common way early commercial-stage drug stories fail, which is running out of money mid-ramp.

The launch itself is the substance behind the price. YUTREPIA, an inhaled treprostinil for pulmonary arterial hypertension and the interstitial-lung-disease form of pulmonary hypertension, reached the market in June 2025 and the uptake has been fast. First-quarter 2026 revenue hit $130 million, net product sales were $129.9 million, and adjusted EBITDA reached $71.2 million, the third consecutive profitable quarter. More than 4,500 unique patient prescriptions had been recorded through April 30, 2026, and the product had taken roughly 23% share of the inhaled prostacyclin segment. A nearly profitable trailing year understates a business whose quarterly run-rate is climbing this steeply.

The addressable opportunity supports continued momentum if the trajectory holds. Pulmonary hypertension is a chronic, progressive condition where patients stay on therapy for years, so each new prescription is a durable revenue annuity rather than a one-time sale. The dry-powder inhaled format competes on convenience against nebulized alternatives, and 23% share captured in well under a year of selling argues that prescribers find the profile compelling. With the balance sheet funded and the product profitable, the bull case is that Liquidia compounds share in a large, sticky indication while it still has years of runway on the underlying patient population.

Bear Case

The structural truth a holder has to face is that the price is paying for a future the trailing financials have not delivered, and a single legal outcome could rewrite it. Liquidia earned $0.17 per share over the trailing year and trades near $71, which is a multiple no static method comes close to supporting. The stock is a bet on the YUTREPIA ramp continuing for years, layered on top of an unresolved patent fight with United Therapeutics, the maker of the competing Tyvaso franchise. The 10-K is explicit about the stakes: the company warns it "may be forced to refrain from promoting YUTREPIA for one or more indications, or altogether, until the applicable patent(s) expire" if litigation goes against it. That is binary risk sitting underneath a stock priced for a smooth, multi-year climb.

The litigation is active and has not broken cleanly in Liquidia's favor. The company recently failed to convince a federal judge to dismiss United Therapeutics' patent-infringement suit, with the court allowing the case to proceed on a patent distinct from the one in earlier litigation. Pharmaceutical patent disputes can stretch for years and swing on single rulings, and the same 10-K notes the company "faces significant competition from large pharmaceutical companies" in the space. A well-capitalized incumbent with an entrenched franchise and a patent estate is exactly the kind of opponent that can impose cost, delay, and uncertainty on a newer entrant regardless of the eventual merits.

The ramp itself carries the ordinary risks of an early launch priced for perfection. The 23% inhaled-prostacyclin share was captured against a backdrop where the incumbent has every incentive to defend its base on price, formulary access, and physician relationships. Share gains can plateau as the easy switches are exhausted and the remaining patients prove stickier to their existing therapy. The company has a strong net-cash position and no debt, so solvency is not the concern, but the share count has grown about 18% over the trailing period, which means existing holders have already been diluted as the company funded its growth. The bear does not need YUTREPIA to fail. It needs the ramp to slow or the litigation to introduce an indication restriction, either of which would collapse the gap between the demonstrated economics and the price.

Valuation

The defining fact is that no standard valuation family reaches the current price. Against trailing results the stock is rich on assets, capitalized earnings, peer multiples, and even forward growth, which means the price is a bet beyond what any conventional frame supports. Trailing earnings per share are $0.17 and book value per share is about $1.07, so the asset and earnings methods land in the low single digits, far below the price. This is not a valuation puzzle to be solved with a different multiple; it is a recognition that the market is pricing a revenue ramp that the trailing income statement has only just begun to show.

The right lens for a company at this stage is revenue and its trajectory, not trailing profit. Quarterly revenue reached $130 million with adjusted EBITDA of $71.2 million, and the year-over-year growth rate is extreme because the product only launched in mid-2025. A revenue-multiple framing makes the price comprehensible only under aggressive assumptions about how long that growth persists and how high the eventual margin settles. The honest reading is that the buyer is underwriting many years of sustained share gains and a clean litigation outcome, both of which are uncertain, rather than paying for a demonstrated, steady-state business.

Solvency is the one unambiguous strength and it bounds the downside. The company holds roughly $223 million of cash against no debt, so it is funded to run the launch and the legal defense without a forced raise. That net-cash floor is real, but it is small relative to the market value the price implies, which means it protects against insolvency, not against a sharp repricing if the ramp disappoints. The decisive variable for this name is not the balance sheet, which is sound, but the two things the price is actually betting on: the durability of the YUTREPIA share gains and the resolution of the United Therapeutics patent litigation.

Catalysts

The first-quarter 2026 report in May confirmed the launch is working financially. Revenue surged to $130 million, net product sales reached $129.9 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $71.2 million, the company's third consecutive profitable quarter. The commercial metrics underneath were equally strong: more than 4,500 unique patient prescriptions through April 30, 2026, and roughly 23% share of the inhaled prostacyclin market for a product that only launched in mid-2025.

The overhang is legal. United Therapeutics, which markets the competing Tyvaso franchise, has pursued multiple patent suits against YUTREPIA, and Liquidia recently failed to get the latest infringement case dismissed, with the court permitting it to proceed on a separate patent from earlier litigation. The catalysts that will move the stock are the quarterly net-product-sales trajectory, which shows whether the share ramp is holding, and any ruling in the patent dispute, since an adverse outcome could restrict promotion of the product. With a funded balance sheet, the company can sustain both the commercial push and the legal defense while these resolve.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Liquidia Corporation (respiratory/vascular therapeutics) (reported)

• UTHR (United Therapeutics Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …agreements, Actavis and ANI can market their generic versions of Orenitram in the United States beginning in June 2027 and December 2027, respectively, although either or both of them may be permitted to enter the market earlier under certain circumstances. Competition from these generic companies could reduce our…
• FY2025 10-K: …discussion, see the risk factor entitled, Our intellectual property rights may not effectively deter competitors from developing competing products that, if successful, could have a material adverse effect on our revenues and profit s, contained in Part I , Item 1A-Risk Factors included in this Report. 16 United…
• INSM (INSMED INCORPORATED)
• FY2025 10-K: …of the generic products. Although we believe that our formulation delivery technology, respiratory and anti-infective expertise, experience and knowledge in our specific areas of focus provide us with competitive advantages, these potential competitors could reduce our commercial opportunity. Additionally, there…
• FY2025 10-K: SDAQ Biotechnology Index and the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF Index _________________________________ * $100 invested on 12/31/20 in stock or index, including reinvestment of dividends. Fiscal year ending December 31. 70 ITEM 6. [RESERVED] Not applicable. 71 ITEM 7. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION…
• BBIO (BridgeBio Pharma, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Investments Sub-Master LP, Viking Global Opportunities Drawdown (Aggregator) LP, Patient Square Bravo Aggregator, LP, SC US/E GROWTH FUND X MANAGEMENT, L.P., SC US/E Venture Fund XVIII Management, L.P., Frazier Life Sciences XI, L.P., Frazier Life Sciences Public Fund, L.P., Frazier Life Sciences Public Overage Fund,…
• FY2025 10-K: …are included in early-stage development and research programs, which are presented in the following table in "Other development programs" and "Other research programs," respectively. 162 Table of Contents BRIDGEBIO PHARMA, INC. Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements The following table summarizes our segment…
• KNSA (Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc)
• FY2025 10-K: …acquired by Eli Lilly and Company (this acquisition is expected to close in the first half of 2026). Monte Rosa Therapeutics is developing MRT-8102 (a molecular glue degrader targeting NEK-7) and has announced plans to expand their ongoing Phase 1 proof-of-concept studies in individuals at high risk for…
• FY2025 10-K: …risks and uncertainties. As a result of many factors, including those factors set forth in the risks identified in Part I-Item 1A "Risk Factors" section of this Annual Report and our other filings with the SEC, our actual results could differ materially from the results, performance or achievements expressed in or…
• APLS (APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …we may develop, which could render EMPAVELI, SYFOVRE, or our product candidates obsolete and noncompetitive. EMPAVELI targets a market that is already served by a competitor with significantly greater financial resources than us. The principal competitors for EMPAVELI for the treatment of PNH, are eculizumab…
• FY2025 10-K: …trials; SAR 446597, an intravitreal dual-complement targeting gene therapy being developed by Sanofi S.A. in Phase 2 clinical trials; and other product candidates that do not target the complement system that are either in Phase 3 or in Phase 2 clinical trials, including but not limited to therapies being developed…
• ARQT (ARCUTIS BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …development through a collaboration between Johnson & Johnson and Protagonist Therapeutics; ME3183, under development by Meiji Pharma; and Orismilast, under development by UNION. For atopic dermatitis, our primary competitors include: • topical therapies such as Eucrisa, marketed by Pfizer Inc.; Opzelura, marketed by…
• FY2025 10-K: …light-based therapies. For atopic dermatitis, our primary competitors include topical therapies such as Eucrisa, marketed by Pfizer Inc.; Opzelura, marketed by Incyte Corporation, Vtama, marketed by Organon & Co., and generic and branded versions of low to mid-potency steroids such as hydrocortisone or triamcinolone.…
• HRMY (HARMONY BIOSCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …NLS Pharmaceutics mazindol ER product candidate and orexin 2 receptor agonist product candidates from Takeda, Jazz Pharmaceuticals/Sumitomo Pharma, Centessa and Alkermes among others. We believe WAKIX offers a meaningfully differentiated product profile that is competitive with each of the products listed above, some…
• FY2025 10-K: …territories, which are rights originally licensed from Teijin Pharma, the innovator of BP1.15205. We further broadened our portfolio into rare epilepsy when the Company acquired Epygenix Therapeutics, Inc. ("Epygenix") in April 2024. As a result, the Company now has an exclusive license relating to the use of…
• AUPH (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 1. Organization and Description of Business Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. ("Aurinia" or the "Company") is a biopharmaceutical company focused on delivering therapies to people living with autoimmune diseases with high unmet medical needs. In January 2021, the Company introduced…
• FY2025 10-K: …Operations." You should evaluate all forward-looking statements made in this Annual Report, including the documents we incorporate by reference, in the context of these risks, uncertainties and other factors. We caution you that the risks, uncertainties and other factors referred to above may not contain all of the…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

Liquidia Q1 FY2026 results, May 2026 · Liquidia FY2025 10-K · Liquidia Q1 FY2026 update, May 2026 · court ruling reporting, 2026