LANTHEUS HOLDINGS, INC. (LNTH): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $100.77, LANTHEUS HOLDINGS, INC. (LNTH) is priced for +18.9% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/LNTH

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 7: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.2% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Relative Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=18)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• Lantheus is a radiopharmaceuticals company whose engine is PYLARIFY, the leading prostate-cancer PET imaging agent, alongside DEFINITY for echocardiography and a growing neurology imaging line.
• The decisive number is PYLARIFY's trajectory: its revenue fell 6.5% year over year to $240.9 million as the prostate-imaging market growth slowed and the agent's transitional reimbursement advantage expired, so the company's single largest product is shrinking.
• Watch the new formulation and pipeline: management won FDA approval for a new PYLARIFY formulation, TRUVU, with a phased launch starting in the fourth quarter, so the marker is whether that and the newer imaging agents offset the legacy decline.

Bull Case

One number drives the Lantheus thesis, and it is PYLARIFY's position as the leading prostate-cancer imaging agent. The 10-K frames the goal directly: to "maintain PYLARIFY as the most utilized prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) PET imaging agent". PSMA PET imaging is the standard of care for staging and monitoring prostate cancer, one of the most common cancers in men, and being the category leader in a clinically essential diagnostic is a durable position. Even with the recent decline, PYLARIFY at $240.9 million in a single quarter is the dominant product in its market, and the company is defending it with a next-generation formulation rather than ceding the field.

The portfolio underneath PYLARIFY is doing real work and diversifying the story. DEFINITY, the ultrasound enhancing agent for echocardiography, grew 6.8% to $84.6 million on volume demand, a steady cash generator that anchors the base, and the newer neurology imaging agent grew 14.3% sequentially. The growth in the non-PYLARIFY lines is the evidence that Lantheus is more than a single product, and it is the part of the business the market underweights when it fixates on the legacy decline. The financial quality is genuine: the company generates strong free cash flow, carries a net debt position of only about $72 million against nearly $500 million of liquid assets, and operates at a high-teens operating margin. That balance sheet gives Lantheus the flexibility to fund its pipeline and pursue acquisitions in radiopharmaceuticals, a field consolidating around exactly its expertise.

The catalysts ahead are concrete regulatory wins. Lantheus secured FDA approval for a new PYLARIFY formulation, TRUVU, with a phased launch beginning in the fourth quarter, and a tentative approval for another pipeline product. A reformulated lead product can extend the franchise's life and defend share against new entrants, and a disciplined pricing strategy in a market the company still expects to grow in the low teens means the volume base is not collapsing, just decelerating. The bull case is that Lantheus uses its clean balance sheet and category leadership to manage PYLARIFY's maturation while the diagnostics and therapeutics pipeline grows into the next leg, turning a single-product story into a radiopharmaceutical platform.

Bear Case

The bear case begins with a qualitative observation, not a ratio: the company's most important product is shrinking, and the price assumes the opposite. PYLARIFY revenue fell 6.5% year over year, and the decline is not a stumble but a structural shift. The 10-K telegraphed it, warning about maintaining the product's leadership "after the expiration of transitional pass-through payment status at the end of 2024" and flagging the risk of losing share to competitors, including "any potential generic entrant to the market". Transitional pass-through status was a reimbursement advantage that effectively subsidized PYLARIFY's adoption; its expiration removes a tailwind and exposes the agent to pricing pressure and competition just as the underlying PSMA PET market growth slows to the low teens. The single largest revenue line is decelerating into a more competitive, less subsidized market.

Now hold the price against what the business has demonstrated, and the disconnect is stark. At roughly 22 times company-wide operating income, the price requires operating profit to grow about 20% a year for five years, against a company whose largest product is in decline and whose own full-year guidance implies roughly flat overall revenue at $1.4 to $1.45 billion. The arithmetic does not reconcile: 20% profit growth from a flat-revenue, declining-flagship base requires either a dramatic margin expansion or a new product ramping fast enough to replace PYLARIFY's lost volume, and neither is in evidence yet. Only the relative-multiple lens reaches the price; the asset-value, earnings-power, and even the forward-growth methods all read the stock as expensive, with the discounted-cash-flow models landing at roughly half the price because they credit the company's actual near-flat growth rather than a 20% acceleration.

The structural vulnerability is product concentration in a field where reimbursement and competition move fast. A radiopharmaceutical company lives on a handful of approved agents, and PYLARIFY's outsized contribution means its decline drags the whole company until the pipeline catches up. The new TRUVU formulation is a defense, but reformulations extend franchises; they rarely reverse a market-growth slowdown or restore a lost reimbursement advantage. Competitors with their own pass-through status and new PSMA agents are entering precisely the window the bull needs to be quiet. The clean balance sheet is real and removes solvency risk, so the bear case is not about survival. It is that a stock priced for 20% profit growth, with its flagship in decline and its overall revenue guided flat, is paying a growth multiple for a maturing diagnostics business, and the gap between that price and the demonstrated trajectory is the risk.

Valuation

The price assumes an acceleration the recent numbers do not show. At roughly 22 times company-wide operating income, the market is paying for operating profit to grow about 20% a year for five years. That is a demanding requirement for a company whose largest product, PYLARIFY, is declining and whose full-year revenue guidance of $1.4 to $1.45 billion implies a roughly flat top line. The bet, stated plainly, is that the pipeline and the reformulated lead product reignite growth from a base that is currently treading water.

The method split is one-sided toward caution. Only the relative-multiple lens reaches the price, anchored on a sector P/E near 24 times, which credits Lantheus with a healthcare-diagnostics multiple. Every other family reads the stock as expensive. The forward-growth lens is the telling one: the perpetual-growth DCF, crediting the company's actual roughly 1% recent growth, lands at less than half the price, and even the exit-multiple version, holding today's EV/EBITDA flat, sits well below it. The earnings-power method lands below the price, and the asset-value methods land at roughly half. When even the growth-crediting methods say expensive because the demonstrated growth is near zero, the only support for the price is a peer multiple applied to a business the peer multiple assumes is growing, which is the assumption in question.

The cohort comparison frames the multiple. The peer set is high-quality life-science and diagnostics names, Bio-Techne, Repligen, IDEXX, Qiagen, and Organon, businesses that command premium multiples for durable, growing franchises. Lantheus trades at a multiple in that neighborhood while its flagship declines, which is the mismatch the bear identifies: a growth-cohort multiple on a name whose growth has stalled. Solvency is genuinely not a concern here, and it is the bull's strongest factual point: net debt of only about $72 million against nearly $500 million of liquid assets means the company has ample capacity to fund its pipeline and acquire, so the downside is not a balance-sheet failure. The decisive fact is the growth gap. The buyer at this price is underwriting a 20% profit-growth path from a business guiding to flat revenue with a declining lead product, and the burden of proof sits entirely on a pipeline that has not yet demonstrated it can carry that weight.

Catalysts

The Q1 2026 print captured the tension precisely. Revenue was $377.3 million and GAAP diluted EPS jumped to $1.80 from $1.02, with adjusted EPS of $1.46, but the product detail told the real story: PYLARIFY fell 6.5% to $240.9 million, while DEFINITY grew 6.8% to $84.6 million and the neurology agent grew 14.3% sequentially. The headline earnings strength sat atop a declining flagship, which is the dynamic the whole thesis turns on. Management reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of $1.4 to $1.45 billion and adjusted EPS of $5.00 to $5.25, implying a roughly flat top line for the year.

The regulatory catalysts are the defense and the hope. Lantheus achieved FDA approval for a new PYLARIFY formulation, TRUVU, with a phased launch beginning in the fourth quarter of 2026, and a tentative approval for another pipeline product. The TRUVU transition is the most important near-term event: a successful relaunch could stabilize the franchise and defend share against new PSMA agents, while a slow uptake would leave the legacy decline unchecked. Management framed the broader PSMA PET market as growing in the low teens for 2026, slower than before, with disciplined pricing to protect share against competitors, some of whom still carry the reimbursement advantage PYLARIFY has lost.

The watch items are sharply defined. Track the PYLARIFY revenue trajectory and the TRUVU launch uptake through the fourth quarter, since that determines whether the flagship stabilizes. Watch the growth of DEFINITY and the neurology line, the parts of the portfolio that have to do more of the work, and the competitive landscape in PSMA imaging, including new agents and any changes in reimbursement status. With a clean balance sheet, watch also for acquisitions, since the company has the capacity to buy growth, and an accretive deal in radiopharmaceuticals could change the trajectory the static methods currently see. For a stock priced for acceleration off a flat base, the catalyst that matters most is the first quarter that shows the pipeline replacing the legacy decline rather than merely cushioning it.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Radiopharmaceuticals (consolidated) (reported)

• CPRX (CATALYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …financial statements. • Results of Operations . This section provides an analysis of our results of operations for the three fiscal years presented in the accompanying consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive income. • Liquidity and Capital Resources . This section provides an analysis of our cash…
• FY2025 10-K: NDEX TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS Page Reports of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm (PCAOB ID Number 248 ) F- 2 Consolidated Balance Sheets F- 4 Consolidated Statements of Operations and Comprehensive Income F- 5 Consolidated Statements of Changes in Stockholders' Equity F- 6 Consolidated…
• SUPN (SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: S WorldMeds Partners, LLC and Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (incorporated by reference to Exhibit 2.1 to the Form 10-Q filed on August 17, 2020, File No. 001-35518). 2.3 #* Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated as of October 10, 2021, by and among Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Supernus Reef, Inc. and Adamas…
• FY2025 10-K: Consolidated Statements of Equity; (vi) Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows; and (vii) the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements, tagged in summary and detail. 104 ** The Cover Page of the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, formatted in Inline XBRL (included with…
• HRMY (HARMONY BIOSCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …territories, which are rights originally licensed from Teijin Pharma, the innovator of BP1.15205. We further broadened our portfolio into rare epilepsy when the Company acquired Epygenix Therapeutics, Inc. ("Epygenix") in April 2024. As a result, the Company now has an exclusive license relating to the use of…
• FY2025 10-K: …for the Medicaid rebate accrual to historical estimates. ● We tested the overall reasonableness of the Medicaid rebate accrual recorded at period end by developing an expectation for comparison to actual recorded balances. ● We involved audit professionals with industry and quantitative analytics experience to assist…
• ALKS (Alkermes plc.)
• FY2025 10-K: 4 Reduction of accounts receivable $ 21,049 $ 22,031 Components of accrued sales discounts, allowances and reserves 247,126 272,452 Components of other long-term liabilities 47,860 41,944 Total revenue-related reserves $ 316,035 $ 336,427 Collaborative Arrangements The Company has entered into collaborative…
• FY2025 10-K: …or maximization programs). Significant consolidation in the health insurance industry has resulted in a few large insurers and pharmacy benefit managers exerting greater pressure in pricing and usage negotiations with drug manufacturers, significantly increasing discounts and rebates required of manufacturers and…
• JAZZ (Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc)
• FY2025 10-K: …Term Loans were refinanced into a new tranche of U.S. dollar term loans Tricare program Tricare Retail Pharmacy program Tris Pharma Tris Pharma, Inc. TSC tuberous sclerosis complex TSR total shareholder return U.K. United Kingdom U.K. Bribery Act U.K. Bribery Act of 2010 U.S. United States of America U.S. GAAP U.S.…
• FY2025 10-K: …or the context otherwise requires, all references to "Jazz Pharmaceuticals," "the registrant," "the Company," "we," "us," and "our" refer to Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc and its consolidated subsidiaries. Throughout this report, all references to "ordinary shares" refer to Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc's ordinary shares. F-9…
• INDV (Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments, or otherwise. 5 ABOUT THIS ANNUAL REPORT As used herein, references to "we," "us," the "Company," "Indivior," "Indivior Pharmaceuticals," "Indivior Group" or the "Group," or similar terms in this Form 10-K…
• FY2025 10-K: …subjective, or complex judgments. The communication of critical audit matters does not alter in any way our opinion on the consolidated financial statements, taken as a whole, and we are not, by communicating the critical audit matter below, providing a separate opinion on the critical audit matter or on the accounts…
• OGN (Organon & Co.)
• FY2025 10-K: …customer segment utilization mix in the U.S., changes to price, the terms of the specific rebate programs, and the historical trends of actual rebate claims paid; (ii) comparing the independent estimate to the U.S. rebate accruals for Medicaid and Managed Care recorded by management; and (iii) testing, on a sample…
• FY2025 10-K: …Statement of Equity • Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows • Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements 2. Exhibits: See Item 15(b) below. (b) Exhibits The exhibits listed on the Exhibit Index beginning on page 109 , which is incorporated herein by reference, are filed or furnished as part of this report or are…
• AMRX (AMNEAL PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …of its products and services with third-party pharmaceutical companies. The consolidated statements of operations include revenue recognized under agreements the Company has entered into to develop marketing and/or distribution relationships with its partners to fully leverage the technology platform and revenue…
• FY2025 10-K: Index to financial statements and supplementary data filed as part of this Report. Report of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm (PCAOB ID 42) F- 1 Consolidated Statements of Operations F- 4 Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss) F- 5 Consolidated Balance Sheets F- 6 Consolidated Statements…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.