ALLIANT ENERGY CORP (LNT): what the price requires

At today's price, ALLIANT ENERGY CORP (LNT) is priced for +5.7% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.

Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/LNT

Headline

FieldValue
TickerLNT
CompanyALLIANT ENERGY CORP
Current price$76.69/sh
CompositionElectric utility 85% / Gas utility 12% / Other utility 1% / Non-utility 2%

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Operating margin today24.0%
Implied growth5.7%
Multiple paid28x operating income

Solve inputs: computed at a 6.6% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~9.7pp.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~5.6 years; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

ReferenceValue
vs own history+0.13σ
cohort percentile (of 70 peers)81
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset2.05x5expensive
Earnings1.49x2expensive
Relative1.29x5expensive
Growth1.12x3expensive

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 6.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=15)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth——no—
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$68.371.12xyesExit EV/EBITDA: 14.6x / 16.6x / 18.6x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr
Relative ValuationRelative$59.611.29xyesP/E 20x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 16.7x / 20.0x / 23.3x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 13x
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth$75.091.02xyesStage 1: 20% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$34.302.24xyesBV/sh $28.68, ROE (TTM) 11.1%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$37.372.05xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$60.891.26xyesRev $4.4B, growth 8% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 3.7x / 4.5x / 5.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$73.701.04xyesEPS $3.18, growth 23% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=1.04 (Fair)
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$2.0836.87xyesNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.94B × (1−21%) / WACC 6.2% → EPV (no growth) (excluded from median)
Residual IncomeAsset$37.972.02xyesBV $28.68 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 11.1% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 7.2%/yr
Graham NumberAsset$45.301.69xyes√(22.5 × EPS $3.18 × BVPS $28.68) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative$50.431.52xyesEBITDA $1.88B × sector EV/EBITDA 13.0x
FCF YieldEarnings$0.017669.00xyesFCF $13.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity (excluded from median)
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings——no—
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$102.610.75xyesEPS $3.18 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$4.8315.88xyesBV $28.68 × (ROIC 1.0% / WACC 6.2%)
P/Sales SectorRelative$42.681.80xyesRevenue $4.42B × sector P/S 2.5x
PEG Fair ValueRelative$110.550.69xyesEPS $3.18 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 23.2% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 34.8x
Earnings YieldEarnings$34.382.23xyesEPS $3.18 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$11.3b
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)13.23x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)10.45x
Interest coverage2.1x
Share count CAGR (dilution)0.8%
Burning cashno

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

What the asset-value methods miss about a regulated utility is the entire point of the business. They read Alliant as expensive because the price sits well above book value, but a utility is not worth its book; it is worth the stream of authorized returns it earns on a rate base that regulators let it grow. Alliant's earnings engine is mechanical and visible: invest capital into the system, get it approved into rate base, and earn a regulated return on it. The most recent quarter showed the machine working, with increased rate bases at the company's Iowa and Wisconsin utilities contributing $0.15 per share to earnings in a single quarter. That is not market-dependent profit; it is the contracted-by-regulation return the asset-value lens structurally cannot frame.

The growth is large, planned, and funded. Alliant is executing a $13.4 billion capital expenditure plan through 2029 that supports roughly 12% rate-base expansion and underpins its target of 7%-plus annual EPS growth. For a utility, the capital plan is the earnings forecast: every dollar of approved investment earns its authorized return, so a rate base growing at double digits translates fairly directly into mid-to-high-single-digit earnings growth, smoothed and predictable. The regulatory framework supports it: the 10-K describes Wisconsin's mechanism for approving rate-making principles "prior to the purchase or construction of any EGU", which gives the company visibility on the return before it commits the capital.

The new and underappreciated lever is data-center demand. Alliant has secured five data-center agreements totaling 3.4 gigawatts of demand, with three projects under construction, and in April executed a 370-megawatt electric service agreement with a hyperscale customer in Iowa, with full load ramp expected by 2030. The 10-K had already flagged this as a structural driver, noting that "significant load growth, including data centers, could influence electric demand". Large-load customers are transformative for a utility because they justify additional generation and grid investment, which expands the rate base further, which compounds the earnings growth. A utility that was a steady 6% grower can become a 7%-plus grower when an entire new category of demand arrives, and that is the upside the traditional book-value methods do not capture. With a covered dividend on top, the bull case is a predictable, rate-base-driven compounder with a genuine demand accelerant.

Bear Case

The cleanest bear case is to read the methods against each other, because they disagree, and the disagreement points at the price being full even for a good utility. The forward-growth and peer-multiple lenses reach the price, but they do so by crediting the rate-base growth and holding today's multiple flat. The asset-value methods say expensive, landing well below the price, and on a regulated utility the asset-value gap deserves more weight than usual, because a utility's earnings are tethered by regulation to its rate base. When the asset frame and the growth frame diverge this far on a business whose returns are capped by regulators, the conservative read is that the market is paying a premium multiple for growth that the regulatory ceiling limits how much can ultimately be earned.

The arithmetic of the price makes the point. At roughly 28 times company-wide operating income, Alliant trades at a premium multiple for a regulated utility, and the price requires operating profit to grow about 8% a year for five years. That is achievable if the capital plan executes and the data-center load arrives, but it is at the top end of what a regulated utility can deliver, and it depends on a chain of regulatory approvals the company does not control. Rate cases can be denied, authorized returns can be cut, and the timing of cost recovery can slip, each of which would pull the realized return below the plan. A utility priced for 8% growth has little room for a regulator deciding that customers, not shareholders, should capture more of the benefit of the data-center investment.

The structural constraint is the balance sheet and the regulatory bargain it rests on. Net debt sits near $11.3 billion, roughly eleven times operating income, which is normal for a capital-intensive utility but leaves the equity sensitive to interest rates and to the regulators who set the returns that service the debt. A $13.4 billion capital plan has to be funded, and a utility funds growth with a mix of debt and equity; the more it issues, the more the per-share growth is diluted, and rising rates raise the cost of the debt while pressuring the allowed return investors demand. The data-center optimism also carries execution risk the price treats as settled: large-load agreements ramp over years, can be renegotiated or delayed, and the generation built to serve them is a long-lived bet on demand that must actually show up. The bear case is not that Alliant is a poor utility. It is that a premium multiple on a regulated business, funded by heavy debt and dependent on regulators granting the returns the plan assumes, prices in a best-case execution that regulation is designed to temper.

Valuation

Alliant is a regulated utility, so the value comes from the authorized return it earns on a growing rate base, and the price reflects a premium for that growth. At roughly 28 times company-wide operating income, the price implies operating profit growth of about 8% a year for five years, which is within what the company's capital plan targets but sits at the upper end of what a regulated utility typically delivers. The bet is that the rate-base expansion and the data-center load convert into the planned earnings trajectory, with regulators granting returns along the way.

The method families split, and the split is the analysis. The forward-growth lens reaches the price, with an exit-multiple DCF landing on it by holding today's EV/EBITDA near 16 times flat. The peer-multiple lens, anchored on the utility cohort, also lands near the price. But the asset-value methods read the stock as expensive, landing well below it, because the price sits at roughly double the book-value-and-profitability estimate. For most businesses, that gap is the growth premium the static methods cannot frame; for a regulated utility, it is more pointed, because regulation caps how far above its rate-base return the company can earn. The earnings-power read lands below the price as well. The honest interpretation is that the price is defensible only on the rate-base growth story, and the methods anchored on demonstrated economics say the premium is real.

The cohort comparison frames the multiple. The peer set is utilities and contracted-energy infrastructure, WEC Energy, CMS Energy, Otter Tail, and the midstream names, and Alliant trades at a premium that reflects its data-center-driven growth optionality relative to slower-growing peers. That premium is earned if the load arrives; it is vulnerable if it slips. The solvency frame for a utility is its capital-return capacity and its access to capital: net debt near eleven times operating income is standard for the sector, but it means the equity is a levered claim on a regulated return stream, and the $13.4 billion capital plan requires ongoing debt and equity issuance that dilutes the per-share math. The decisive point is the regulatory dependence. The buyer at this price is underwriting that Alliant executes a large capital plan, that data-center demand materializes on schedule, and that regulators grant the returns the plan assumes, three links in a chain where the utility controls only the first.

Catalysts

The Q1 2026 print was steady and reaffirmed the trajectory. GAAP EPS came in at $0.87 versus $0.83 a year earlier, ongoing EPS was $0.82, and rate-base growth at the Iowa and Wisconsin utilities contributed $0.15 per share, the mechanical driver of utility earnings doing its work. Management reaffirmed 2026 ongoing earnings guidance of $3.36 to $3.46 per diluted share and reiterated its target of 7%-plus compound annual EPS growth across 2027 through 2029, anchored on the capital plan.

The data-center pipeline is the catalyst that distinguishes Alliant from a plain-vanilla utility. The company has secured five data-center agreements totaling 3.4 gigawatts of demand, with three projects under construction, and in April signed a 370-megawatt electric service agreement with a hyperscale customer in Iowa, with full load ramp expected by 2030. These agreements are the mechanism that could expand the capital plan and lift the rate-base trajectory, so the concrete markers are the construction progress on the three active projects and any new agreements that would add to the 3.4-gigawatt total.

The watch items are regulatory and executional. Track the outcomes of pending rate cases and the authorized returns regulators grant, since those determine how much of the capital plan converts to earnings. Watch the funding mix for the $13.4 billion plan, because the balance between debt and equity issuance shapes the per-share growth. And watch the data-center ramp timelines, since large-load agreements deliver value only as the demand actually materializes, and a slip in the 2030 ramp would push out the earnings benefit the premium multiple assumes. For a utility, there is no single transformational event; the thesis advances through rate cases, capital deployment, and load growth, one regulatory cycle at a time.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

IPL (Interstate Power and Light) (reported)

WPL (Wisconsin Power and Light) (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

Q1 FY2026 earnings release · FY2024 10-K

View the full interactive LNT report on boothcheck