Luckin Coffee Inc. (LKNCY): what the price requires
At today's price, Luckin Coffee Inc. (LKNCY) is priced for The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power and relative-multiple and grow.... boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-08 · Exported: 2026-07-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/LKNCY
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | LKNCY |
| Company | Luckin Coffee Inc. |
| Sector / Industry | Consumer Cyclical / Restaurants |
| Current price | $7.98/sh |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 0.49x | 5 | justifies |
| Earnings | 0.69x | 5 | justifies |
| Relative | 0.16x | 5 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.49x | 2 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings, Relative, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.8%, WACC 5.9%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=17)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $29.95 | 0.27x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 4.0x / 4.2x / 7.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $34.27 | 0.23x | yes | P/E 18.79x (blended: sector 28x + trailing (TTM) 5x), scenarios: 15.0x / 18.8x / 22.5x (bear / base = sector held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 12.46x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $16.42 | 0.49x | yes | BV/sh $6.95, ROE (TTM) 23.0%, ke 9.8% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $25.09 | 0.32x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.8% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $11.31 | 0.71x | yes | Rev $7.0B, growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 0.3x / 0.4x / 0.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $19.20 | 0.42x | yes | EPS $1.60, growth 1% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=3.57 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $8.46 | 0.94x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.35B × (1−32%) / WACC 5.9% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $23.57 | 0.34x | yes | BV $6.95 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 23.0% − Kₑ 9.8%) × BV; BV grows 9.3%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $15.81 | 0.50x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $1.60 × BVPS $6.95) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $48.78 | 0.16x | yes | EBITDA $0.95B × sector EV/EBITDA 18.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $11.53 | 0.69x | yes | FCF $494.9M / Kₑ 9.8% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $8.92 | 0.89x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.41B (FCF $0.49B − SBC $0.08B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $51.63 | 0.15x | yes | EPS $1.60 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $16.25 | 0.49x | yes | BV $6.95 × (ROIC 13.7% / WACC 5.9%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $98.61 | 0.08x | yes | Revenue $7.03B × sector P/S 4.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $60.00 | 0.13x | yes | EPS $1.60 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $17.30 | 0.46x | yes | EPS $1.60 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net cash | $327.4m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | -0.27x (net cash) |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | -0.18x (net cash) |
| Interest coverage | 455.1x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 4.7% |
| Burning cash | no |
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.