KONTOOR BRANDS, INC. (KTB): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $85.64, KONTOOR BRANDS, INC. (KTB) is priced for +16.8% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.

Generated: 2026-07-29 · Exported: 2026-08-01 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/KTB

Headline

FieldValue
TickerKTB
CompanyKONTOOR BRANDS, INC.
Current price$85.64/sh
CompositionWrangler 61% / Lee 24% / Helly Hansen 15% / Other 1%

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Implied growth16.8%
Multiple paid19x operating income

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.5% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~6.8pp.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

ReferenceValue
vs own history+0.57σ
cohort percentile (of 212 peers)59
sustained it ~5 years at this level42%
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset1.60x5expensive
Earnings1.60x5expensive
Relative0.76x5justifies
Growth0.53x3justifies

Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.5%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=18)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$454.820.19xyesFCF base $0.5B, growth 25% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 7.5%, 7yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$161.990.53xyesExit EV/EBITDA: 13.4x / 16.4x / 19.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr
Relative ValuationRelative$100.260.85xyesP/E 22x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 17.6x / 22.0x / 26.4x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 14x
Simple DDMGrowthno
Two-Stage DDMGrowthno
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$53.481.60xyesBV/sh $11.05, ROE (TTM) 44.8%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$136.430.63xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$124.260.69xyesRev $3.1B, growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.2x / 1.5x / 1.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$159.180.54xyesEPS $4.94, growth 32% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.54 (Undervalued)
Margin TrajectoryGrowthno
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$36.112.37xyesNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.32B × (1−24%) / WACC 7.5% → EPV (no growth)
Residual IncomeAsset$85.671.00xyesBV $11.05 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 44.8% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr
Graham NumberAsset$35.052.44xyes√(22.5 × EPS $4.94 × BVPS $11.05) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative$69.841.23xyesEBITDA $0.37B × sector EV/EBITDA 14.0x
FCF YieldEarnings$55.171.55xyesFCF $399.8M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings$49.171.74xyesSBC-adj FCF $0.37B (FCF $0.40B − SBC $0.03B) capitalized at Kₑ
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$159.400.54xyesEPS $4.94 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$5.4315.77xyesBV $11.05 × (ROIC 3.7% / WACC 7.5%)
P/Sales SectorRelative$112.250.76xyesRevenue $3.14B × sector P/S 2.0x
PEG Fair ValueRelative$185.250.46xyesEPS $4.94 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x
Earnings YieldEarnings$53.411.60xyesEPS $4.94 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelativeno
Clinical Phase NPVGrowthno
MertonAssetno
V5 Mechanicalno

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$1.1b
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)5.45x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)4.12x
Share count CAGR (buyback)-0.8%
Burning cashno

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

The price sits below where most of the valuation methods land, which is unusual for a company growing this fast, and that gap is the bull case. At roughly 18 times operating income the stock is reachable by the relative-multiple and growth-oriented methods, while the implied growth the price requires, about 15% a year for five years, is within what Kontoor has recently delivered. The 10-K describes a company pursuing strategies to "support and grow market share in existing distribution with leading retailers, drive business opportunities in new channels, such as premium, specialty and sporting goods", and the most recent results show that strategy working: Wrangler posted its sixteenth consecutive quarter of share gains in men's and women's bottoms, gaining over 100 basis points in the quarter. A brand taking share for four straight years is not a tired denim label; it is a winning one.

The Helly Hansen acquisition reshapes the growth profile, and it is contributing already. The premium outdoor brand added $176 million of revenue in the quarter, up 16% on a reported basis, and contributed to a 45% jump in continuing-operations revenue to $613.3 million. Helly Hansen carries higher growth and a more premium positioning than core denim, which lifts the blended growth rate and gives Kontoor a second engine in technical outerwear, a category with structural tailwinds and pricing power that mass-market jeans lack. Management is steering meaningful investment behind the brand, and the early double-digit growth is the evidence the integration is taking.

The margin and capital-allocation story rounds out the case. Gross margin expanded 810 basis points to 53.7% in the quarter, helped by cost-of-goods reductions and a tariff receivable, and the company raised full-year 2026 adjusted earnings guidance. The balance sheet supports the plan: net debt near $1.09 billion is under three times operating income with interest coverage near 5.8 times, comfortable cover for a consumer-brand business. Kontoor authorized a $750 million share repurchase program, expected to be funded partly by proceeds from the planned Lee sale, which simplifies the portfolio while shrinking the share count. Against apparel peers like Ralph Lauren, PVH, and the former parent VF Corporation, Kontoor pairs faster brand-share momentum with a cleaner balance sheet and a more focused brand set after the Lee divestiture, which is the combination the bull case rests on.

Bear Case

The competitive pressure that matters most for Kontoor is the channel it depends on: mass-market and wholesale denim, where the retailer holds the power and the consumer is price-sensitive. The 10-K is candid that its wholesale customers have "experienced significant business disruptions" in past downturns and that there can be "no assurance that our wholesale or other customers have adequate financial resources" to withstand stress. Wrangler's share gains are real, but they come in a category, basic bottoms, where the brands compete on price and shelf space against private label and against rivals like the former parent VF Corporation and PVH. A single large retailer pulling back orders or pushing its own private-label denim can dent a quarter, and the customer concentration that comes with selling through a handful of big-box chains is a structural fragility no brand strength fully offsets.

The quality of the quarter's headline numbers deserves scrutiny, because the bear's point is that some of the strength is one-time. The 810-basis-point gross-margin expansion was driven substantially by a tariff receivable and prior-year tariff cost reductions, not purely by underlying pricing or mix. Tariff dynamics cut both ways: the same trade policy that produced a receivable this quarter is a live cost risk in future quarters, and the 10-K names "fluctuating foreign currency exchange rates, supply chain issues and inconsistent consumer demand" as persistent headwinds. A margin lifted by a tariff timing benefit is not the same as a margin lifted by durable structural improvement, and extrapolating it overstates the run-rate.

The portfolio reshaping carries execution risk on both ends. Integrating Helly Hansen, a premium outdoor brand with a different customer, different seasonality, and a different distribution model than mass denim, is not the company's core competency, and the heaviest ambitions for the brand are years out rather than now. Simultaneously, divesting Lee removes about $195 million of revenue and a known cash generator, and the proceeds and timing are not yet certain. Doing a large acquisition integration and a divestiture at the same time, while funding a $750 million buyback partly on sale proceeds that have not closed, stacks several execution bets on top of each other. The price already embeds about 15% annual growth for five years, and if any one of those moves, the Helly Hansen ramp, the Lee sale, or the tariff-aided margin, disappoints, the growth assumption the price rests on becomes harder to meet.

Valuation

The price is making a reasonable growth bet rather than an aggressive one. At today's level the market pays roughly 18 times Kontoor's operating income, which inverts to about 15% annual operating-profit growth held for five years. That is a real growth assumption, but a defensible one: it is within what the company has recently delivered, and the relevant base rate is moderate, with about 44% of comparable fast-growers sustaining that pace over five years. The bet is that brand-share momentum and the Helly Hansen contribution keep the growth going, not that something unprecedented happens.

The method families land in a constructive pattern. The relative-multiple lens and the growth-oriented cash-flow lens both reach or support the price, while the asset-value and earnings-power lenses sit somewhat below it. That means the price is not stretched against peer multiples or against a forward-growth view; it is only rich against the most conservative static frames, which is the normal posture of a healthy brand company that the market credits with continued share gains. There is no extreme premium here of the kind a story stock carries; the spread between the methods is modest, which marks Kontoor as fairly priced for its growth rather than as a bet beyond what any frame supports.

Solvency is sound and supports the capital plan. Net debt near $1.09 billion is under three times operating income, with interest coverage near 5.8 times, comfortable for a consumer-brand business, and the share count has been roughly flat to slightly declining. The valuation rests on the growth assumption holding, and the $750 million buyback, funded partly by the planned Lee sale, adds a per-share tailwind on top. Against apparel peers Ralph Lauren and PVH, Kontoor trades at a comparable-to-lower multiple while growing faster after the Helly Hansen addition, and the analyst mean target near $92 sits well above today's price. The street, crediting the brand momentum and the portfolio reshaping, lands above where the conservative methods reach; the reconciliation is whether the 15% growth and the integration both deliver, which is the same question the inversion frames.

Catalysts

The first-quarter 2026 print, reported in early May, drove a strong reaction and raised the full-year bar. Continuing-operations revenue rose 45% to $613.3 million, lifted by Helly Hansen, with Wrangler global revenue up 2% on its sixteenth consecutive quarter of share gains and Helly Hansen contributing $176 million, up 16% reported. Gross margin expanded 810 basis points to 53.7%, and management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $6.60 to $6.70 with revenue guidance of about $3.44 billion.

The portfolio moves are the defining catalysts. Kontoor announced a decision to divest the Lee brand, with the process initiated in the quarter, multiple interested parties, and an agreement expected later this year, which would refocus the company on Wrangler and Helly Hansen. Alongside it, the board authorized a $750 million share repurchase program expected to be funded in part by Lee sale proceeds. The timing and price of the Lee sale, and the pace of the buyback, are the swing factors for the next few quarters.

The sell side has turned decidedly positive. The consensus rating sits at Buy with a mean price target near $92, well above today's price, and several firms raised targets after the quarter: Barclays to $96, Goldman Sachs to $95, and Wells Fargo to $100, with JPMorgan adding the stock to its focus list at a $90 target. Much of the optimism leans on Helly Hansen delivering double-digit growth into 2027, so the brand's ramp is the catalyst the elevated targets are underwriting.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Wrangler / Lee (reported)

Helly Hansen (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

Kontoor Q1 2026 results, May 2026 · Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo analyst targets, 2026 · Kontoor 2026 guidance, May 2026 · Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and JPMorgan analyst notes, 2026

View the full interactive KTB report on boothcheck