Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc (KNSA): what the price assumes

Generated: 2026-07-29 · Exported: 2026-08-01 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/KNSA

Headline

Field	Value
Ticker	KNSA
Company	Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc
Current price	$79.80/sh

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

Field	Value
Inversion basis	whole-company
Must persist for	12.0y
Multiple paid	69x operating income

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.2% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2.3 years.

How unusual the bet is: high

Reference	Value
cohort percentile (of 116 peers)	97
sustained it ~10 years at this level	14%
implied end-window share	0%

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Family	Median price/FV	Models	Reads
Asset	7.25x	4	expensive
Earnings	3.98x	4	expensive
Relative	2.34x	5	expensive
Growth	0.84x	3	justifies

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=16)

Model	Family	FV	Price/FV	Applicable	Methodology
DCF Perpetual Growth	Growth	$87.31	0.91x	yes	FCF base $0.2B, growth 25% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.2%, 7yr projection
DCF Exit Multiple	Growth	$95.31	0.84x	yes	Exit EV/EBITDA: 65.1x / 68.1x / 71.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr
Relative Valuation	Relative	$42.14	1.89x	yes	P/E 43.8x (blended: static sector reference 24x + trailing (TTM) 90x), scenarios: 35.0x / 43.8x / 52.6x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 31.62x
Simple DDM	Growth	—	—	no	—
Two-Stage DDM	Growth	—	—	no	—
Simple Excess Return	Asset	$9.58	8.33x	yes	BV/sh $7.35, ROE (TTM) 12.1%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess Return	Asset	$10.88	7.33x	yes	5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market Cap	Growth	$115.78	0.69x	yes	Rev $0.8B, growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 7.0x / 8.7x / 10.5x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x)
Peter Lynch Fair Value	Relative	$10.92	7.31x	yes	EPS $0.91, growth 2% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=45.01 (Overvalued)
Margin Trajectory	Growth	—	—	no	—
Earnings Power Value	Earnings	—	—	no	—
Residual Income	Asset	$11.14	7.16x	yes	BV $7.35 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 12.1% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 7.8%/yr
Graham Number	Asset	$12.27	6.50x	yes	√(22.5 × EPS $0.91 × BVPS $7.35) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA Relative	Relative	$19.85	4.02x	yes	EBITDA $0.09B × sector EV/EBITDA 16.0x
FCF Yield	Earnings	$22.98	3.47x	yes	FCF $164.2M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF Yield	Earnings	$17.82	4.48x	yes	SBC-adj FCF $0.12B (FCF $0.16B − SBC $0.04B) capitalized at Kₑ
Ben Graham Formula	Earnings	$29.36	2.72x	yes	EPS $0.91 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/B	Asset	$3.32	24.03x	yes	BV $7.35 × (ROIC 4.1% / WACC 9.2%) (excluded from median)
P/Sales Sector	Relative	$36.60	2.18x	yes	Revenue $0.75B × sector P/S 4.0x
PEG Fair Value	Relative	$34.13	2.34x	yes	EPS $0.91 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x
Earnings Yield	Earnings	$9.84	8.11x	yes	EPS $0.91 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations Multiple	Relative	—	—	no	—
Clinical Phase NPV	Growth	—	—	no	—
Merton	Asset	—	—	no	—
V5 Mechanical	—	—	—	no	—

Solvency

Field	Value
Net cash	$468.1m
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)	-7.26x (net cash)
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)	-5.02x (net cash)
Share count CAGR (dilution)	4.5%
Burning cash	no

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

Kiniksa is a profitable commercial biopharma built around one drug, ARCALYST for recurrent pericarditis, and that drug is compounding fast: Q1 2026 net revenue rose 56% to $214.3 million and management raised full-year 2026 ARCALYST guidance to $930 million to $945 million.

The capital position is the standout: $468.1 million of cash, no debt, and net income that swung to $22.6 million from $8.5 million a year earlier. The company is self-funding its pipeline rather than diluting to survive.

The price is elevated. At $55.16 the market pays about 50x company-wide operating income, implying growth held near the self-funding ceiling for about 10 years, a pace only about 16% of comparable companies have sustained. The bet is that ARCALYST plus the KPL-387 follow-on builds a durable franchise.

Bull Case

The capital-allocation picture is where the Kiniksa bull case begins, because it tells you how management sees its own value. The company holds $468.1 million in cash against no debt, and it is now profitable, net income of $22.6 million in Q1 2026, up from $8.5 million a year earlier. That combination is rare for a single-product biopharma: most are still burning cash and diluting shareholders. Kiniksa is doing the opposite, generating cash from ARCALYST and plowing it into a pipeline designed to extend the very franchise that throws off the cash. That is the signal, a management team confident enough in its core market to self-fund the next act rather than sell it or raise against it.

The core asset is genuinely strong. ARCALYST, an interleukin-1 inhibitor, is the established therapy for recurrent pericarditis, a debilitating heart-inflammation condition with real unmet need. Q1 2026 net product revenue grew 56% to $214.3 million, and management raised full-year 2026 guidance to $930 million to $945 million, up from $900 million to $920 million, citing expanding adoption. The clinical positioning is improving too: the company points to concise clinical guidance prioritizing IL-1 inhibition as a second-line treatment, which it reads as growing acceptance of ARCALYST as an effective, steroid-sparing therapy for patients with unmet need (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001104659-26-019168). Steroid-sparing matters because the alternative, chronic steroids, carries serious side effects, so a clean mechanism wins share.

The pipeline is the reinvestment thesis made concrete. Kiniksa is advancing KPL-387, which it is developing for the same recurrent-pericarditis indication (FY2025 10-K), with Phase 2 data expected in the second half of 2026 and a pivotal Phase 3 planned by year-end. A successful KPL-387, potentially a more convenient dosing option, would let Kiniksa defend and extend its hold on recurrent pericarditis well beyond ARCALYST's lifecycle. Against profitable single-asset peers like Harmony Biosciences and Neurocrine, Kiniksa offers fast revenue growth, real profitability, a clean balance sheet, and a self-funded pipeline aimed squarely at deepening its franchise. That is a disciplined use of capital.

Bear Case

The structural risk in Kiniksa is the same one that defines every single-product biopharma, and the recent cycle position makes it sharper: nearly all the value rests on one drug in one indication. ARCALYST is the franchise, and recurrent pericarditis is the market. A peer in the same situation states the risk in the bluntest possible terms, deriving all of its revenue from a single commercial product (HRMY FY2025 10-K, accession 0001104659-26-018859), and Kiniksa is no different in substance. When a company's entire earnings stream is one molecule, every competitive, regulatory, or clinical surprise lands directly on the valuation with nothing to cushion it. The 56% growth looks like a secular ramp, but single-drug ramps eventually flatten as a niche indication saturates.

The peak-versus-sustainable question is whether the current growth is the early innings of a durable franchise or the steep part of an S-curve that levels off. Recurrent pericarditis is a defined patient population, not an open-ended market, so ARCALYST's revenue has a ceiling that adoption will approach. The exclusivity clock is the other half: ARCALYST will eventually face loss of protection, and the pipeline meant to bridge that gap is itself the franchise's main vulnerability. Kiniksa's own filing notes KPL-387 will compete with the same assets as ARCALYST in recurrent pericarditis (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001104659-26-019168), so the follow-on is doubling down on a single disease rather than diversifying away from it. And pipelines fail: the company discontinued development of abiprubart, a reminder that even a cash-rich biopharma cannot buy clinical success.

The valuation is what turns these risks into a real downside. At $55.16 (June 27, 2026) the price embeds operating growth held near the self-funding ceiling for roughly 10 years, which the engine flags as elevated, above what fundamentals comfortably support, with only about 16% of comparable companies sustaining that pace. The static methods land far below, simple excess return near $10, residual income near $11, the Graham Number near $12, a fraction of the price, because the current earnings base is small and concentrated. The price is paying for a decade of ceiling-rate compounding from a one-drug, one-indication company whose key pipeline bet is unproven and whose lead asset has a finite patient pool and an exclusivity cliff. If KPL-387 disappoints or ARCALYST growth saturates sooner, the stock reverts toward the much lower static value. The clean balance sheet protects against insolvency, not against a re-rating.

Valuation

Kiniksa is priced for durable franchise compounding, and the methods say only the growth lens reaches the price. At $55.16 the reverse-DCF reads the market as paying about 50x company-wide operating income, implying growth held near the 25% self-funding ceiling for roughly 10 years, computed at a 9.1% cost of capital. The engine rates that elevated, with only about 16% of comparable companies sustaining the pace. The method families split as they do for a high-growth single-asset name: the growth frames reach well above the price, DCF perpetual growth near $88, discounted future market cap near $80, both extrapolating the recent 25%-plus growth. The asset and earnings-power frames land far below, simple excess return near $10, residual income near $11, the Graham Number near $12, because the current earnings base is small relative to the market value. Earnings power value is gated off because normalized operating income does not yet clear the cost of capital.

The relative methods sit in the middle, relative valuation near $34 and sector price-to-sales near $37, reflecting the rich multiples the market assigns growing biopharma.

The honest synthesis is a quality-premium valuation that depends entirely on the franchise outlook. The premium-by-family figures show the price several times the asset and earnings-power fair values; only durable growth justifies it. The case for that growth is real, 56% revenue growth, raised guidance, real profitability, a self-funded pipeline. The case against is concentration and duration: one drug, one indication, an exclusivity cliff, and a pipeline bet that is not yet de-risked. The $468 million cash balance removes financing risk and gives management room to invest, but it does not change the fact that the price requires a decade of exceptional compounding from a narrow base. This is a bet on the franchise, not a value entry.

Catalysts

Q1 2026 (reported April 2026) was strong: ARCALYST net product revenue rose 56% to $214.3 million, net income climbed to $22.6 million from $8.5 million, and diluted EPS reached $0.27 from $0.11. The company raised full-year 2026 ARCALYST net sales guidance to $930 million to $945 million from $900 million to $920 million, citing expanding adoption in recurrent pericarditis. The next quarterly revenue prints test whether the adoption ramp holds toward that guidance.

The pipeline is the defining medium-term catalyst. Kiniksa expects Phase 2 data for KPL-387 in recurrent pericarditis in the second half of 2026 and plans to initiate the pivotal Phase 3 trial by year-end. Positive KPL-387 data would validate the franchise-extension thesis directly; a disappointment would expose the single-asset concentration. The discontinuation of abiprubart is a reminder that pipeline outcomes are binary and not guaranteed.

The swing factors over the next 90 days are ARCALYST prescription and adoption trends, KPL-387 trial progress and any data readouts, and how management deploys the $468 million cash balance, whether toward pipeline, business development, or capital return. Competitive dynamics in IL-1 inhibition and any updates to clinical treatment guidelines are the other variables to track.

Sources: StockTitan (KNSA Q1 2026 8-K and 10-Q), GlobeNewswire and company release (Q1 2026 results), Investing.com (Q1 2026 slides), Pienomial, StockAnalysis.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals (single segment) (reported)

• ANIP (ANI PHARMACEUTICALS, INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …our products. If competitors introduce new products with therapeutic or cost advantages, our products can be subject to progressive price reductions and/or decreased volume of sales. Generics and Others Segment The primary means of competition among generic drug manufacturers are pricing, contract terms, service…
• FY2025 10-K: …and a sales force for these products. Strengthening Our Generics and Other Segment We plan to strengthen our Generics and Other segment through continued investment in our research and development capabilities and increased focus on niche opportunities. We have grown our Generics business through a combination of…
• SUPN (SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …final dosage forms for our products and raw materials, including API. On November 4, 2025, the Company announced that due to stronger than expected demand for ONAPGO, supplier constraints are impacting the Company's ability to fully meet this demand. ONAPGO is manufactured in Europe, supplied to us by our ONAPGO…
• FY2025 10-K: …revenue from Biogen's sales of ZURZUVAE to customers in the U.S., the Company utilizes certain information from Biogen, including revenue from the sale of the product and associated reserves on revenue. The following table summarizes the Company's proportionate share of the activity under the Biogen Collaboration…
• HRMY (HARMONY BIOSCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: 58 (the "Compound"), along with intellectual property and other assets related to the development, manufacture, and commercialization of the Compound from ConSynance Therapeutics, Inc. We acquired full development and commercialization rights for HBS-102 globally, but we have provided an indication-limited grant-back…
• FY2025 10-K: …paid to selling shareholders (i) ​ $ 55,960 Cash consideration paid to settle Zynerba restricted stock awards ("RSAs") as stock options (ii) ​ ​ 4,040 Transaction costs ​ ​ 2,645 Total purchase consideration ​ $ 62,645 ​ (i) The cash consideration paid to selling shareholders was determined based on the total number…
• APLS (APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …including: • the efficacy and safety of the product; • the potential advantages of the product compared to competitive therapies; 50 Table of Contents • the prevalence and severity of any side effects; • the clinical indications for which the product is approved; • whether the product is designated under physician…
• FY2025 10-K: …requirements for eligible trading partners for particular periods of time. Section 505(b)(2) NDAs NDAs for most new drug products are based on two full clinical studies which must contain substantial evidence of the safety and efficacy of the proposed new product. These applications are submitted under Section…
• ARQT (ARCUTIS BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …under the AstraZeneca License Agreement, we will pay AstraZeneca a low to high single-digit percentage royalty rate on our, our affiliates', and our sublicensees' net sales of such AZ-Licensed Products, subject to specified reductions, until, as determined on an AZ-Licensed Product-by-AZ-Licensed Product and…
• FY2025 10-K: …in sales-based milestones based on certain aggregate annual net sales volumes with respect to a licensed product. With respect to any products the Company commercializes under the Hengrui License Agreement, it will pay tiered royalties to Hengrui on net sales of each licensed product by the Company, or its…
• ARDX (ARDELYX, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …manufacture IBSRELA and XPHOZAH. If they are unable to comply with applicable regulatory requirements, unable to source sufficient raw materials, experience manufacturing or distribution difficulties or are otherwise unable to manufacture sufficient quantities to meet demand, our commercialization of IBSRELA and…
• FY2025 10-K: Certain Beneficial Owners and Management and Related Stockholder Matters 102 Item 13. Certain Relationships and Related Transactions, and Director Independence 102 Item 14. Principal Accounting Fees and Services 102 PART IV Item 15. Exhibits, Financial Statement Schedules 103 Item 16. Form 10-K Summary 103 Signatures…
• FOLD (AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: ____________ (1) Represents shares of common stock withheld to satisfy taxes associated with the vesting of restricted stock awards. Item 6. [RESERVED] -74- Table of Contents Item 7. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS Overview We are a leading, global biotechnology…
• FY2025 10-K: …focus, we strive to redefine expectations in rare disease. Our two marketed therapies are Galafold ® , the first oral monotherapy for people living with Fabry disease who have amenable genetic variants, and Pombiliti ® + Opfolda ® , a novel two-component treatment for adults living with late-onset Pompe disease.…
• NBIX (NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …the achievement of certain event-based milestones and is entitled to receive royalties on the future net sales of any collaboration product. Unless earlier terminated, the agreement will continue on a licensed product-by-licensed product and country-by-country basis until the date on which the royalty term for such…
• FY2025 10-K: …false 2025 FY 0000914475 P3Y http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#OtherLiabilitiesCurrent 0.7 - P3Y P3Y one one one one iso4217:USD xbrli:shares iso4217:USD xbrli:shares xbrli:pure nbix:non-clinicalStageCompound nbix:preclinicalCandidate nbix:undisclosedProgram nbix:geneTherapyProgram nbix:segment 0000914475 2025-01-01…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.