KIMCO REALTY CORPORATION (KIM): what the price requires
At today's price, KIMCO REALTY CORPORATION (KIM) is priced for +1.0% FFO growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/KIM
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | KIM |
| Company | KIMCO REALTY CORPORATION |
| Current price | $25.04/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | reit |
| Implied FFO growth | 1.0% |
| Price-to-FFO | 14.2x |
| FFO yield | 7.1% |
Solve inputs: computed at a 10.3% cost of equity with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of equity moves the implied growth ~3.6pp.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~-3.1%/yr; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.16σ |
| cohort percentile (of 88 peers) | 41 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 3.24x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.45x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.80x | 4 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.97x | 5 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.4%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=19)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $31.13 | 0.80x | yes | FCF base $1.1B, growth 4% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.4%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $25.73 | 0.97x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 10.0x / 12.0x / 14.0x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $44.53 | 0.56x | yes | P/E 26.66x (blended: static sector reference 35x + trailing (TTM) 14x), scenarios: 22.3x / 26.7x / 31.0x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 20x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | $34.77 | 0.72x | yes | DPS $1.09, g=5.9% (sustainable: ROE (TTM) × retention; not the terminal-growth assumption), ke=9.3% |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $11.17 | 2.24x | yes | Stage 1: -9% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $9.91 | 2.53x | yes | BV/sh $15.44, ROE (TTM) 5.9%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $7.72 | 3.24x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $18.75 | 1.34x | yes | Rev $2.2B, growth 4% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 6.5x / 7.8x / 9.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Growth-Adjusted P/E | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $7.53 | 3.33x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.64B × (1−21%) / WACC 9.4% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $7.44 | 3.37x | yes | BV $15.44 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 5.9% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 3.9%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $24.80 | 1.01x | yes | √(22.5 × FFO/share $1.77 × BVPS $15.44) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $41.87 | 0.60x | yes | EBITDA $1.42B × sector EV/EBITDA 20.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $17.86 | 1.40x | yes | FCF $1139.2M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $17.23 | 1.45x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $1.10B (FCF $1.14B − SBC $0.04B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $1.48 | 16.92x | yes | FFO/share $1.77 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $2.53 | 9.90x | yes | BV $15.44 × (ROIC 1.5% / WACC 9.4%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $19.28 | 1.30x | yes | Revenue $2.16B × sector P/S 6.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $19.14 | 1.31x | yes | FFO/share $1.77 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | $25.10 | 1.00x | yes | FFO/share $1.77 × 14.2x P/FFO (route cohort median, n=85); FFO $1.19B (FFO incl. D&A + impairments, FY2025, companyfacts), shares 673M |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt (REIT basis) | $7.6b |
| Net debt / FFO | 6.34x |
| Fixed-charge coverage (FFO basis) | 4.6x |
| Funds from operations (trailing) | $1.2b |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 2.2% |
| Burning cash | no |
REIT basis: leverage is read against funds from operations (FFO), not depreciation-gutted operating income. The header's implied growth runs on ADJUSTED FFO — FFO minus recurring maintenance capex — so the header's multiple and this leverage ratio use bases that differ by that capex; neither substitutes for the other.
Bullet Takeaways
At $24.39 the market values Kimco at roughly 14x adjusted funds from operations, a level that implies about 0.8% annual AFFO growth. The company is currently delivering same-property NOI growth several times that pace.
Q1 2026 FFO was $0.46 per share on revenue of $558 million, and management tightened full-year FFO guidance to $1.81 to $1.84 while raising the same-property NOI outlook to 2.8% to 3.5%. Pro-rata leased occupancy reached 96.3% with blended cash rent spreads of 11.3%.
The asset and earnings-power models read Kimco as expensive because depreciation guts reported book returns, but on the FFO basis that actually values a REIT, the price sits in the lower half of the peer group's price-to-AFFO.
Bull Case
Start with what the market is pricing in, then check it against the leases being signed. At $24.39 (June 27, 2026) the price embeds AFFO growth of only about 0.8% a year, computed at a 10.5% cost of equity. That is a near-stall assumption: the market is treating Kimco as a portfolio that barely grows its cash earnings from here. The leasing data says otherwise. In Q1 2026 same-property NOI grew 1.7% year over year, management raised the full-year same-property NOI outlook to a range of 2.8% to 3.5%, and pro-rata leased occupancy climbed to 96.3% on 4.4 million square feet of new leases at blended cash rent spreads of 11.3%. A landlord re-leasing space at double-digit rent spreads is not a 0.8% grower.
The gap between the priced-in assumption and the operating reality is the bull case, and the asset quality behind it is real. Kimco is an owner and operator of open-air, grocery-anchored shopping centers and mixed-use assets (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-060760), the format that proved most resilient through the shift to online retail because groceries, services, and necessity goods do not ship in a box. Same-property NOI for full-year 2025 was $1.57 billion, up 3.0% from $1.52 billion (FY2025 10-K), so the recent quarter is a continuation, not a one-off. Anchor occupancy near 98% and small-shop occupancy rising toward 92.5% leave room to push both rents and the highest-margin small-shop space further.
The valuation frame that matters confirms the disconnect. A REIT is valued on funds from operations, not on a depreciation-gutted earnings multiple, and on that basis Kimco's roughly 14x AFFO sits in the lower half of its REIT peer group. The FFO-multiple method lands near $24 at the cohort-median 13.4x, right at the price, and the FFO/share of $1.77 against a $1.09 annualized dividend implies comfortable coverage. Against peers like EastGroup, Urban Edge, and American Assets Trust, Kimco offers scale, a grocery-anchored bias, and a dividend recently raised 4%. The market is paying for stagnation while the portfolio compounds rents.
Bear Case
The bear case on a REIT is usually a capital-allocation case, because a landlord grows mainly by spending money it has to raise, and how it raises that money decides whether per-share value follows. Kimco funds its growth through a stack of common stock offerings, unsecured notes, bank debt, mortgage debt, and perpetual preferred stock (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-060760). That is the standard REIT toolkit, but it is also the standard REIT dilution risk: the share count has been creeping higher at roughly 2% a year, and external growth funded with equity only helps holders if the new assets earn more than the cost of the shares issued to buy them. With the stock trading below where several valuation methods place fair value, issuing equity here is value-dilutive, not accretive.
The rate environment is the external variable with the most leverage on the thesis, and it cuts directly at a REIT. Kimco's cash flows are bond-like, so a higher-for-longer rate backdrop pressures the stock on two fronts: it raises the discount rate the market applies to the dividend stream, and it raises the cost of every refinancing in a debt-heavy capital structure. The model could not even resolve net debt cleanly because mortgage and REIT-level debt sit outside the standard corporate tags, a reminder of how much borrowing supports the asset base. Fixed-charge coverage near 4.6x is adequate but not generous, and the dividend, recently raised 4% to $0.26 a quarter, competes with the same cash that services debt and funds redevelopment.
The deeper risk is the tenant base under macro stress. Open-air retail held up well, but the bull case leans on rent spreads and occupancy that depend on healthy retailers and a healthy consumer. A recession that thins out small-shop tenants, the exact occupancy Kimco is trying to push higher, would reverse the leasing momentum fast, and re-leasing vacated space takes quarters, not weeks. To its credit the company did repurchase 6.1 million shares in 2025 at a weighted-average $19.79 with $688.5 million still authorized (FY2025 10-K), so management is not only issuing. But a REIT priced for near-zero growth is priced that way partly because the market doubts the growth survives the next downturn and the next refinancing wall.
Valuation
Kimco has to be valued on funds from operations, and the method that does so puts the price near fair. The FFO multiple method marks the stock at $23.64 using FFO per share of $1.77 and the route-cohort median 13.4x price-to-FFO, essentially at the $24.39 price. That is the right anchor for a REIT, where depreciation is a non-cash accounting charge on appreciating real estate, so the earnings-based methods that strip it out are misleading. The reverse-DCF on AFFO sharpens it: at roughly 14x adjusted funds from operations the price implies only about 0.8% AFFO growth a year, in the lower half of the REIT peer group's price-to-AFFO and well below the 2.8% to 3.5% same-property NOI the company guides to.
The other method families split exactly as REIT mechanics predict. The asset and earnings-power frames read Kimco as wildly expensive, earnings power value near $2.50, ROIC-justified book near $2, residual income near $7, because reported return on equity near 6% and ROIC near 1% are depressed by depreciation against a book value per share of $15.44. Those are artifacts of REIT accounting, not signals of overvaluation. The growth and relative frames run higher: DCF perpetual growth near $44, relative valuation near $41, the Ben Graham formula on FFO near $52.
The synthesis is that on the correct basis, FFO and AFFO, Kimco looks reasonably valued to modestly cheap, with the priced-in growth sitting below the demonstrated operating growth. The honest caveat is the rate sensitivity: the AFFO multiple that makes the stock look cheap is itself a function of where long rates sit, and a higher discount rate compresses both the multiple and the implied growth at roughly 3.5 percentage points of growth per point of cost of equity. The value is real on operations; the multiple is hostage to rates.
Catalysts
Q1 2026 (reported spring 2026) showed FFO of $0.46 per share, revenue of $558 million up from $536.6 million a year earlier, and net income of $0.23 per share, beating estimates. Same-property NOI grew 1.7%, and the company signed 4.4 million square feet of leases at blended cash rent spreads of 11.3%, lifting pro-rata leased occupancy to 96.3%. The next quarterly prints will test whether leasing momentum holds.
Guidance was the clearest catalyst. Management tightened full-year 2026 FFO guidance to $1.81 to $1.84 per diluted share and raised the same-property NOI growth outlook to 2.8% to 3.5%, a constructive signal that the operating trajectory is improving, not stalling. Watch occupancy, particularly the higher-margin small-shop space near 92.5%, and rent spreads on lease renewals as the leading indicators.
Capital return and rates are the recurring swing factors. The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share, up 4% year over year, and the company retains $688.5 million of buyback authorization after repurchasing shares in 2025. Interest rates remain the dominant external driver for a REIT; track the rate path and any refinancing activity alongside each quarterly update over the next 90 days.
Sources: StockTitan (Q1 2026 8-K and FFO release), GuruFocus (Q1 2026 earnings highlights), Quartr, TipRanks, StockAnalysis (transcripts).
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Open-air shopping centers (single reportable segment) (reported)
- BRX (Brixmor Property Group Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- REG (REGENCY CENTERS CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- FRT (FEDERAL REALTY INVESTMENT TRUST)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- UE (URBAN EDGE PROPERTIES)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- PECO (PHILLIPS EDISON & COMPANY, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CURB (Curbline Properties Corp.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- KRG (KITE REALTY GROUP TRUST)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- SKT (TANGER INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.