KINROSS GOLD CORP (KGC): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $25.70, KINROSS GOLD CORP (KGC) is priced for -3.0% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/KGC

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 6: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 10.1% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~4.2pp.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings, Relative, Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.9%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=17)

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

At $26.66 the market pays roughly 10x company-wide operating income for Kinross, a multiple that sits below what even a 5% per year decline in operating profit would justify, despite a gold price near record highs and rising production.

Q1 2026 produced 493,000 ounces and a fourth consecutive quarter of record free cash flow, about $840 million, with the company on track for 2 million ounces in 2026 at all-in sustaining cost guidance near $1,730 per ounce.

The balance sheet flipped to net cash of roughly $804 million, and the Great Bear project in Ontario is moving from permitting to underground work, the growth option the depleting-asset bears worry about most.

Bull Case

Valuing a gold miner is its own discipline, and most generalist models get it wrong in the same direction. A miner is a wasting asset wrapped around a commodity it does not control: the reserve depletes with every ounce poured, the price swings on macro forces, and the cost to pull the next ounce climbs as grades fall. Kinross fits the pattern in one way and breaks it in another. It fits because the cash flow is genuinely cyclical, driven by a gold price the company cannot set. It breaks because right now the cycle is working hard in its favor, and the price has not caught up.

The numbers behind that claim are recent and concrete. Q1 2026 delivered 493,000 ounces, led by Tasiast and Paracatu, and the fourth straight quarter of record free cash flow, roughly $840 million. The company is guiding to 2 million ounces for 2026 at an all-in sustaining cost near $1,730 per ounce, while gold trades far enough above that to leave a wide margin per ounce. The model reads a trailing operating margin near 29% and a return on equity near 28%, and the balance sheet has swung to net cash of about $804 million. For a sector where the bear case is usually leverage plus depletion, Kinross currently carries neither the debt problem nor a shrinking production profile.

The peer frame sharpens it. Against Gold Fields, Barrick, Alamos, and Newmont, the question for any gold name is reserve quality and cost position, and the reserve economics that drive the whole sector are visible in peer disclosure: Newmont notes its exploration is aimed at converting resources into proven and probable reserves through brownfield and greenfield work (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001164727-26-000010), the exact treadmill every miner runs. Kinross is feeding that treadmill with Great Bear, where the AEX permit is in hand and underground blasting is expected to begin around August or September, plus new high-grade zones at Curlew and a Strider discovery. At about 10x operating income with record cash flow and a funded growth pipeline, the price is treating Kinross as a melting ice cube. The production guidance and the cash say it is not melting.

Bear Case

The moat in gold mining is the orebody, and orebodies erode by design. Every ounce Kinross sells is an ounce gone from the reserve, and the ounces that replace it are usually deeper, lower grade, and more expensive to extract. The economics are not unique to Kinross; they are the sector's central gravity. Newmont's own filing lays out the variables that govern every deposit's value, grade, metallurgical recovery, operating cost, and waste-to-ore ratio (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001164727-26-000010), and the direction of all four trends against a miner over time. The bull case rests on a high gold price papering over that erosion. Strip the price back to a mid-cycle level and the picture changes fast.

Cost inflation is the visible edge of the erosion. The same peer disclosure shows all-in sustaining costs per gold-equivalent ounce rising on higher sustaining capital and cost of sales (Newmont FY2025 10-K), and Kinross is not immune: 2026 cost of sales guidance sits near $1,360 per ounce and AISC near $1,730, with capital guidance of $1.5 billion. There is also a direct energy exposure, roughly a $10 per ounce cost impact for every $10 per barrel move in oil, with only 63% of the 2026 oil component hedged. Costs grind higher; the offset is a gold price the company does not control.

That is the real fragility: the entire thesis is a leveraged bet on the gold price, and the price is the one variable no production plan can defend. Record free cash flow at $840 million a quarter is a function of where gold trades today, not of any durable Kinross advantage. Reserves in Mauritania, Brazil, the United States, and elsewhere carry jurisdiction and permitting risk, and Great Bear, the growth story, is still years from steady-state production and could disappoint on grade or timeline. Buy here and you are underwriting that gold stays elevated long enough for the new ounces to arrive economically. That is a macro call dressed as a value stock.

Valuation

The valuation spread on Kinross is unusually wide, which is exactly what you expect when a commodity price is the swing factor. The growth and relative methods, the ones that capitalize current cash flow and recent growth, run high: a DCF at tapered growth marks the stock near $77, discounted future market cap near $40, and the PEG-based reads in the $45 to $68 range on a trailing EPS near $1.96 and 23% historical EPS growth. The asset and earnings-power methods, which strip out the growth and the elevated price, run low: Earnings Power Value lands near $8 on a normalized 5-year average EBIT, and price-to-sales at the sector multiple near $9. That gap is the whole debate. The high methods assume the current gold-fueled cash flow persists; the low methods assume it reverts.

The reverse-DCF cuts through it. At $26.66 (June 27, 2026) the market pays roughly 10x company-wide operating income, which the inversion flags as below what even a 5% annual decline in operating profit would warrant, computed at a 9.1% cost of capital. In plain terms, today's price embeds a managed shrinkage, not the production growth and record cash flow the company is actually posting. The middle-ground methods cluster constructively: relative valuation near $31, two-stage excess return near $39, residual income near $33, and EV/EBITDA at the sector multiple near $28, all at or above the price.

The honest caveat is the one the bear case names. The conservative no-growth methods that fall below the price, EPV near $8 and P/S near $9, are the ones that assume gold normalizes. They are not wrong as a floor; they are a reminder that the comfortable cluster around $30 only holds while the gold price holds. Net cash near $804 million removes the balance-sheet risk that usually compounds a miner's downturn, but it does not change the fact that the value here is a function of the metal price more than of any company-specific edge.

Catalysts

Q1 2026 (reported spring 2026) showed 493,000 ounces produced and a fourth consecutive quarter of record free cash flow, roughly $840 million, with strong contributions from Tasiast and Paracatu. The next quarterly prints will test whether the cash-flow streak holds as the year progresses against full-year guidance of about 2 million ounces.

Great Bear in Ontario is the defining medium-term catalyst. With the AEX permit in place, Kinross expects to begin blasting and going underground around August or September 2026, starting with infill and extensional drilling in the main LP ore body. Positive results at Curlew and a newly discovered Strider zone point to further high-grade resource extensions. Milestones on permitting, grade, and timeline over the next several quarters will move the growth thesis directly.

Cost and macro inputs are the recurring swing factors. 2026 guidance is cost of sales near $1,360 per ounce, all-in sustaining cost near $1,730, and capital of $1.5 billion. Oil is a live sensitivity, about a $10 per ounce cost impact for every $10 per barrel move, with 63% of the 2026 oil component hedged near $52 per barrel. Above all, the gold price itself is the dominant catalyst in both directions; watch it alongside each production update over the next 90 days.

Sources: GuruFocus (Q1 2026 earnings call highlights), Tickeron, Investing.com, AOL (Q1 2026 transcript), The Globe and Mail, Simply Wall St.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Core business (reported)

• B (BARRICK MINING CORP)
• FY2025 40-F: …the registrant was required to submit such files). Yes x No ¨ Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act. Emerging growth company ¨ If an emerging growth company that prepares its financial statements in accordance with U.S. GAAP, indicate…
• FY2025 40-F: …entitled "Ratings" in Exhibit 99.1) is incorporated by reference into Barrick's Registration Statements on Form F-3 (File No. 333-206417), Form S-8 (File Nos. 333-121500, 333-131715, 333-135769, 333-224560) and Form F-10 (File No. 333-287021). SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Exchange Act, the…
• NEM (NEWMONT CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …obstacles to our ability to conduct our operations and develop our projects, which may result in a material adverse impact on our business, financial position, results of operations, and growth prospects. Further, the interest rate of Newmont's $1 billion aggregate principal amount of 2.6% Sustainability-Linked…
• FY2025 10-K: …or renewing collective bargaining or certain labor agreements, workforce unionization, or demand for profit sharing; • Disadvantages of competing against companies from countries that are not subject to the rigorous laws and regulations of the U.S. or other jurisdictions, including without limitation, the U.S.…
• GFI (Gold Fields Limited)
• FY2025 20-F: …fatalities at our operations this year. Operationally, we delivered production and cost within guidance, reflecting improved consistency and predictability across the business, supported by stronger operational discipline and enhanced performance management. At the same time, cost pressures remained elevated across…
• FY2025 20-F: …growth through Mineral Resource replacement, supported by detailed consideration of LOM capital requirements • Implementing comprehensive near-mine exploration programmes across operations, with performance monitored during quarterly reviews • Consistently replacing depleted Mineral Reserves through focused efforts,…
• AGI (ALAMOS GOLD INC.)
• FY2025 40-F: : there is sufficient geologic certainty of converting a mineral deposit into a proven and probable reserve. There is a history of conversion to reserves at operating mines; (ii) scoping, pre-feasibility or feasibility: there is a scoping study, pre-feasibility or preliminary feasibility study that demonstrates the…
• FY2025 40-F: …income when control has been transferred to the customer. The Company recognizes the time value of money, where there is a significant financing component and the period between the payment by the customer and the transfer of the contracted goods exceeds one year. Interest expense on deferred revenue is recognized in…
• HMY (HARMONY GOLD MINING COMPANY LIMITED)
• FY2025 20-F: …- Holistic health and wellness " on pages 141 to 153 . Mining companies face strong competition and industry consolidation The mining industry is competitive in all of its phases. We compete with other mining companies and individuals for specialised equipment, components and supplies necessary for exploration and…
• FY2025 20-F: . These factors could materially and adversely affect our financial and operating results. We compete with mining and other companies for key human resources with critical skills and our inability to retain key personnel could have an adverse e ffect on our business The risk of losing senior management or being unable…
• PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp.)
• FY2025 40-F: …search for ore. Evaluation expenditures are incurred to establish the technical and commercial viability of mineral deposits and typically include costs associated with determining optimal methods of extraction and metallurgical and treatment processes, permitting, and preparing economic evaluations. Exploration…
• FY2025 40-F: 7. MANAGEMENT OF CAPITAL The Company's objective when managing its capital is to maintain its ability to continue as a going concern while at the same time maximizing the growth of its business and providing returns to its shareholders. The Company's capital structure consists of shareholders' equity (comprising…
• BVN (BUENAVENTURA MINING CO INC)
• FY2025 20-F: …services. - Rental of mining concessions (until July 2024). - Holding of investment in shares. - Industrial activities. - Purchase and sale of mineral (Trading). F-93 Table of Contents Notes to the consolidated financial statements (continued) ​ The accounting policies used by the Group in reporting segments…
• FY2025 20-F: …borrowing costs. Inventories are classified as current or non - current depending on the length of time that management estimates will be needed to reach the production state of concentrate extraction for each mining unit. The current portion of the inventories is determined based on the expected amounts to be…
• FCX (Freeport-McMoRan Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …of each business segment, commodity prices, costs and other factors. BUSINESS DIVISIONS AND SEGMENTS We have organized our mining operations into four primary divisions - U.S. copper mines, South America operations, Indonesia operations and Molybdenum mines. Refer to "Operations" below for discussion of our mining…
• FY2025 10-K: …maker (CODM) under segment reporting guidance. Operating income (loss) is the financial measure of profit or loss used by the CODM to review segment results, and the significant segment expenses reviewed by the CODM are consistent with the operating expense line items presented in FCX's consolidated statements of…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.