Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (JLL): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $378.01, Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (JLL) is priced for +15.9% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-08-04.

Generated: 2026-08-31 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/JLL

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 10.6% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.8%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=14)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

• JLL is two businesses bolted together: a steady, contracted base of property and facilities management plus a transaction engine in leasing and capital markets that swings hard with the real estate cycle, and the recovery in that second engine is what is driving results right now.
• The defining risk is that transaction revenue is inherently variable, with the company itself noting that investment sales, debt and equity advisory, and incentive fees "increase the variability of the revenue we earn", so a stall in deal activity hits the most profitable part of the model first.
• Watch full-year deal momentum against management's own framing, which expects high single-digit growth in Leasing Advisory and low double-digit growth in Capital Markets for 2026 while flagging that prolonged Middle East tensions could weigh on the back half of the year.

Bull Case

Read the balance sheet first, because it tells you how management feels about its own cycle. JLL carries net debt of roughly $1.5B against trailing operating income near $1.2B, leverage of about 1.25 times operating income, which is modest for a business with this much contracted, recurring management revenue underneath the transactional swings. The share count has been falling about 1.6% a year, which means even through a soft commercial real estate stretch the company kept buying back stock rather than hoarding cash or raising it. A management team that deleverages quietly and repurchases shares into a downturn is signaling confidence that the transaction engine comes back, and the most recent quarter says it has.

The model itself is built to absorb the cycle. Underneath the headline-grabbing capital markets and leasing fees sits a large annuity base: the company earns management and professional-services revenue "commensurate with the length and terms of the contract" and recognizes professional-services revenue as performance obligations are satisfied, which is the recurring spine that funds the firm when deal volumes are low. JLL splits its world into Advisory revenue, the transactional and cyclical part, and Resilient revenue, the contracted management part, and in the first quarter Resilient revenue grew 7% in local currency while Advisory grew 17%. The resilient base grows steadily; the advisory layer provides the torque.

That torque just showed up in full force. First-quarter revenue rose 11% to $6.4B, with Leasing Advisory up 16% in local currency, led by US office and accelerating industrial, and Capital Markets up 21% across investment sales, debt, and equity. Adjusted diluted EPS of $3.43 beat estimates of $3.03, and the operating leverage is the point: when transaction volumes recover, the incremental fee revenue drops to the bottom line at high margins because the cost base is already in place. A firm with a stable annuity floor and a recovering high-margin transaction layer, repurchasing its own stock through the trough, is positioned for the part of the cycle it appears to be entering.

Bear Case

The structural truth a holder should sit with is that a large share of JLL's profit comes from transactions that may not happen. This is not a steady fee machine wearing a cyclical costume; the company says so itself. Its capital markets and advisory revenues, including investment sales, debt and equity advisory fees, and incentive fees, "increase the variability of the revenue we earn", and that variability cuts both ways. The first quarter's 21% capital markets growth is the cycle turning up. The same line item fell just as sharply when deals dried up, and nothing about the business model prevents that from recurring the moment rates back up or credit tightens.

The demand backdrop is structurally unsettled, not merely cyclical. The company acknowledges that the evolution of corporate workplace strategies "continues to alter how companies use real estate, impacting demand across asset types, particularly the office sector". Office leasing led the recent recovery, but the long-run question of how much office space corporations actually need has not been resolved, only deferred. JLL is a leveraged bet on transaction volumes in an asset class whose largest category is still working out its post-pandemic equilibrium, and management's own guidance hangs a caveat on the year, citing prolonged Middle East tensions as a potential drag on the global economy in the second half.

Then there is what the price asks of a cyclical at what looks like an up-cycle moment. At roughly 20 times company-wide operating income, the market is pricing in something close to 22% annual operating growth sustained for five years. The near-term pace is within what JLL has recently delivered, but the demand is on duration, and only about a third of comparable fast-growers have sustained that kind of pace for five years. The trailing operating margin sits near 4.4%, thin by design for a services intermediary, which means small swings in revenue mix produce large swings in profit. Pay this multiple at this point in the cycle and the bet is that the transaction recovery is durable rather than a snap-back to a level that fades.

Valuation

The price is making a growth bet on a cyclical business, which is the tension to hold throughout. At about 20 times company-wide operating income, the market is asking JLL to compound operating profit roughly 22% a year for five years. The rate is within reach given the recovery underway; the stretch is whether it persists, and history says only about a third of comparable fast-growers held that pace for five years. The thin trailing operating margin near 4.4% is normal for a real estate services intermediary, where the firm takes a slice of large transaction values rather than owning the assets.

The methods divide cleanly. Relative-multiple and growth-DCF approaches land at or above the price, which is why the price reads as justified on a cyclical-recovery basis; the asset-value and several earnings-power methods land below it. The earnings-power lens that strips out growth, valuing the business on its zero-growth profit, sits well under the price, which is the mathematical statement of the cyclical setup: capitalize today's recovering earnings as if they were permanent and the number looks rich, credit the growth and it looks fair. No family flags the price as outright expensive, but the pattern says the defense rests almost entirely on the recovery continuing, not on the static value of current earnings.

On solvency, the picture is comfortable rather than fortress-like. Net debt of about $1.5B is roughly 1.25 times trailing operating income, the share count is shrinking, and the contracted management base provides cash-flow stability when transactions slow. One note on the numbers: the operating income that anchors the priced-in math and the figure read from the most recent quarterly filings differ by more than ten percent, a reminder that this is a business measured across a moving cycle, where the trailing window you pick materially changes the multiple.

Catalysts

The first-quarter print was the catalyst that mattered. JLL reported revenue of $6.4B, up 11% in USD, with diluted EPS of $3.33 and adjusted diluted EPS of $3.43, up 48% in USD, beating the $3.03 consensus. The recovery was broad: Leasing Advisory up 16% in local currency on US office strength and accelerating industrial, Capital Markets up 21% across investment sales, debt, and equity, and Real Estate Management Services up 7% on Workplace and Project Management.

For the rest of 2026 management expects high single-digit revenue growth in Leasing Advisory and low double-digit growth in Capital Markets, while explicitly building potential macroeconomic headwinds from prolonged Middle East tensions into its second-half framework. The near-term watch items are whether deal momentum in capital markets holds as the year progresses and whether office leasing keeps recovering, since both are the high-margin levers that drove the quarter. Longer term, management is leaning on its Accelerate 2030 strategy and its data and AI investments to scale the core services, a margin story that will take several prints to show up in the numbers.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Real Estate Management Services (reported)

• CBRE (CBRE GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …on a contract-by-contract basis, and when appropriate, recognize revenue based on our assessment of the outcome (using the most likely outcome approach or weighted probability) and historical results, if comparable and representative. Using management assessments and historical results and statistics, we recognize…
• FY2025 10-K: NTS (Continued) Project Management Our Project Management segment provides services on a portfolio wide or programmatic basis. Revenues from project management services generally include construction management, fixed management fees, variable fees, and incentive fees if certain agreed upon performance targets are…
• CWK (CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD LTD.)
• FY2025 10-K: …service lines. Depending on the geography or service, we face competition from other commercial real estate services providers, outsourcing companies, in-house corporate real estate departments, institutional lenders, insurance companies, investment banking firms, investment managers, accounting firms and consulting…
• FY2025 10-K: …may be based on hours incurred, a percentage mark-up on actual costs incurred or a percentage of monthly gross receipts. Additionally, this service line has a large component of revenue that consists of us contracting with third-party providers (engineers, landscapers, etc.) and then passing these expenses on to our…
• CIGI (Colliers International Group Inc.)
• FY2025 40-F: Revenue The Company generates revenue through its provision of commercial real estate services, which are comprised of leasing, capital markets and outsourcing as well as engineering services and investment management, as described below. (a) Leasing Leasing includes landlord and tenant representation brokerage…
• FY2025 40-F: …real estate properties. Such services may involve appraisals of single properties or portfolios of properties. These appraisals may be utilized for a variety of customer needs including acquisitions, dispositions, financing, financial reporting, litigation or for tax purposes. Loan servicing fees consist of revenues…
• NMRK (NEWMARK GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …due diligence, data management, transaction support, performance analytics, fund administration, and commercial real estate title and escrow services. We also offer these clients cost-effective and flexible staffing solutions through both on-site and off-site teams. We believe these largely recurring revenue…
• FY2025 10-K: Trend Toward Outsourcing of Commercial Real Estate Services. We estimate that the outsourcing of services related to commercial and multifamily real estate has reduced costs for owners, investors, lenders, and tenants, which has increased their profitability and spurred additional demand for property. We believe that…
• FSV (FirstService Corporation)
• FY2025 40-F: …The loan amounts are measured based on the formula price of the underlying non-controlling interests, and interest rates are determined based on market rates plus a spread. The loans generally have terms of 5 to 10 years, but are open for repayment without penalty at any time. Page 26 of 28 19. Segmented information…
• FY2025 40-F: …for the fees associated with the services performed on a straight line basis over the period the services are performed. The Company also provides additional services outside the scope of the property and amenity management services at the request of a customer which represents a distinct performance obligation.…

Leasing Advisory (reported)

• CBRE (CBRE GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …our office space and believe it is adequate for our current needs. The most significant terms of the leasing arrangements for our offices are the length of the lease and rent. Our leases have terms varying in duration. The rent payable under our office leases varies significantly from location to location as a result…
• FY2025 10-K: …cbre:AdvisoryServicesSegmentMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001138118 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember cbre:PropertyManagementMember cbre:BuildingOperationsExperienceMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001138118 cbre:CorporateAndReconcilingItemsMember cbre:PropertyManagementMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001138118…
• CWK (CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD LTD.)
• FY2025 10-K: …may be based on hours incurred, a percentage mark-up on actual costs incurred or a percentage of monthly gross receipts. Additionally, this service line has a large component of revenue that consists of us contracting with third-party providers (engineers, landscapers, etc.) and then passing these expenses on to our…
• FY2025 10-K: …a gross basis and comprises the entire amount billed to the client, and reported costs of services includes all expenses associated with the client. When the Company is acting as an agent, the Company's fee is reported on a net basis as revenue for reimbursed amounts is netted against the related expenses. Within…
• CIGI (Colliers International Group Inc.)
• FY2025 40-F: Revenue The Company generates revenue through its provision of commercial real estate services, which are comprised of leasing, capital markets and outsourcing as well as engineering services and investment management, as described below. (a) Leasing Leasing includes landlord and tenant representation brokerage…
• FY2025 40-F: …services rendered transfers to a customer when a sale and purchase agreement becomes unconditional and that of leasing services rendered transfers to a customer when a lease between the landlord and the tenant is executed. At these points in time, the customer has received substantially all of the benefit of the…
• NMRK (NEWMARK GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …The short-term lease expense over the period reasonably reflects the Company's short-term lease commitments. ASC 842, Leases requires the Company to make certain assumptions and judgments in applying the guidance, including determining whether an arrangement includes a lease, determining the term of a lease when the…
• FY2025 10-K: …due diligence, data management, transaction support, performance analytics, fund administration, and commercial real estate title and escrow services. We also offer these clients cost-effective and flexible staffing solutions through both on-site and off-site teams. We believe these largely recurring revenue…

Capital Markets Services (reported)

• CBRE (CBRE GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and regional banks, credit companies, insurance companies and pension funds. We are compensated for our brokerage services via a fee paid upon successful placement of a commercial mortgage borrower with a lender who will provide financing. The fee earned is contingent upon the funding of the loan, which represents…
• FY2025 10-K: National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) Aggregation and Negotiated Transaction Seller/Servicer. In addition, CBRE Capital Markets' wholly-owned subsidiary CBRE Multifamily Capital, Inc. (CBRE MCI) is an approved Fannie Mae Delegated Underwriting and Servicing (DUS) Seller/Servicer and CBRE Capital Markets'…
• CWK (CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD LTD.)
• FY2025 10-K: …including a relatively higher number of large transactions, as occupiers continue to trend towards newer, higher-grade buildings with top-tier employee experiences. Capital markets revenue increased 18% primarily due to growth across all asset classes and deal sizes, with particular strength in the office, industrial…
• FY2025 10-K: Our Capital markets fees are transactional in nature and generally earned at the close of a transaction as a percentage of the total value of the transaction. Valuation and other . We provide valuations and advice on real estate debt and equity decisions to clients through the following services: appraisal management,…
• CIGI (Colliers International Group Inc.)
• FY2025 40-F: Revenue The Company generates revenue through its provision of commercial real estate services, which are comprised of leasing, capital markets and outsourcing as well as engineering services and investment management, as described below. (a) Leasing Leasing includes landlord and tenant representation brokerage…
• FY2025 40-F: …enters into contracts that can include various combinations of services, which are capable of being distinct and accounted for as separate performance obligations. Revenue is recognized net of any taxes collected from customers, which are subsequently remitted to governmental authorities. (a) Nature of services The…
• NMRK (NEWMARK GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: Revenues Management Services, Servicing Fees and Other Management Services, Servicing Fees and Other revenues increased by $137.5 million, or 12.4%, to $1,244.2 million for the year ended December 31, 2025 compared to the year ended December 31, 2024. This increase was led by a 22.9% growth from Valuation and…
• FY2025 10-K: …contracts, and provide for mutual referrals in their respective markets, generating additional contract and brokerage fees. While we do not derive a significant portion of our revenue from these relationships, they do enable us to seamlessly provide service to our mutual clients. These business partners give our…
• WD (Walker & Dunlop, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …activities that decreased cash: (i) Repayments of corporate notes payable. The increase was largely due to using $328.5 million of the $400.0 million proceeds from the issuance of our Senior Notes to pay down our Term Loan in 2025, with no comparable activity in 2024. (ii) Debt issuance costs. The increase in debt…
• FY2025 10-K: …and investment banking and advisory services, and subscription revenue for its housing market research. Direct internal, including compensation, and external costs that are specific to CM are included within the results of this reportable segment. (ii) Servicing & Asset Management ("SAM") -SAM's activities include:…

Investment Management (reported)

• BX (Blackstone Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …earnings in excess of a 7% per annum return on stockholders' equity (excluding stock appreciation or depreciation), provided that BXMT's distributable earnings over the prior three years is greater than zero. • In our Multi-Asset Investing segment, the investment adviser of certain of our funds of hedge funds, hedge…
• FY2025 10-K: Management inflows in the period when the investment period commences. This is most prevalent in our Real Estate and Private Equity segments. • For commitment-based drawdown funds, Total Assets Under Management realizations generally represents the total proceeds whereas Fee-Earning Assets Under Management generally…
• KKR (KKR & Co. Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: Table of Contents Growth and diversification of management fees: Management Fees Last Five Years ($ in billions) 2025 Management Fees $4.1 billion We earn transaction fees for providing capital markets services as a broker-dealer, and we also earn transaction and monitoring fees as part of the management of our…
• FY2025 10-K: …and (iii) interest income and expense based on lending arrangements where our Asset Management segment borrows from our Insurance segment. All these inter-segment transactions are recorded by each segment based on the applicable governing agreements. Additionally, due to the integrated nature of our segment…
• APO (APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …on an annual basis with the overall realized performance of the Company's asset management business. These arrangements enable certain employees to earn discretionary compensation based on performance revenue earned by Apollo's asset management business in a given year, which amounts are reflected in compensation and…
• FY2025 10-K: …in the "Credit Losses - Available-for-Sale Securities" section below. 167 Table of Contents APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, INC. NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS Mortgage Loans Athene elected the fair value option on its mortgage loan portfolio. Interest income is accrued on the principal amount of the loan based…
• ARES (ARES MANAGEMENT CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …industry or industries, such as labor shortages or increased production costs and competitive conditions within an industry. Our credit orientation has been a central tenet of our business across our debt and equity investment strategies. We believe the combination of high-quality proprietary information flow and a…
• FY2025 10-K: 025 and 2024, the Company had cash balances with financial institutions in excess of Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation insured limits. The Company monitors the credit standing of these financial institutions. Investments Held in Trust Account Investments held in trust account represents funds raised through the…
• BAM (BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT LTD.)
• FY2025 10-K: …performance enhances our ability to compete for investors. Our investors and potential investors continually assess investment performance and our ability to raise capital for existing and future funds depends on our funds' relative and absolute performance. If our investment returns or changes in investment mandates…
• FY2025 10-K: …The Company identifies its customers on a fund-by-fund basis in accordance with the terms and circumstances of the individual fund. Generally, the customer is identified as the investor in its managed funds and investment vehicles, but for certain widely held funds or vehicles, the fund or vehicle itself may be…

Software and Technology Solutions (reported)

• CBRE (CBRE GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …on a contract-by-contract basis, and when appropriate, recognize revenue based on our assessment of the outcome (using the most likely outcome approach or weighted probability) and historical results, if comparable and representative. Using management assessments and historical results and statistics, we recognize…
• FY2025 10-K: …by companies in their reliance on outsourcing for their commercial real estate needs, which would affect our revenues and operating performance; • client actions to restrain project spending and reduce outsourced staffing levels; • our ability to further diversify our revenue model to offset cyclical economic trends…
• CWK (CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD LTD.)
• FY2025 10-K: …investments and innovation. This growth has impacted demand for certain types of commercial real estate, especially data centers, as AI's physical footprint and its need for power, cooling and connectivity is driving additional demand for these spaces. Our Competitive Strengths Our business is designed and built…
• FY2025 10-K: …or proxy advisory scrutiny of executive and equity-based compensation, may decrease our ability to offer attractive compensation to key personnel and make recruiting, retaining and incentivizing such personnel more difficult. In addition, in the event that any of our qualified revenue-producing advisors or senior…
• CIGI (Colliers International Group Inc.)
• FY2025 40-F: …real estate properties. Such services may involve appraisals of single properties or portfolios of properties. These appraisals may be utilized for a variety of customer needs including acquisitions, dispositions, financing, financial reporting, litigation or for tax purposes. Loan servicing fees consist of revenues…
• FY2025 40-F: …statements. As a result, enhanced disclosures related to income taxes are presented (see note 21). Recently issued accounting guidance, not yet adopted Reporting Comprehensive Income - Expense Disaggregation Disclosures In November 2024, FASB issued ASU No. 2024-03 Expense Disaggregation Disclosures which requires…
• NMRK (NEWMARK GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …due diligence, data management, transaction support, performance analytics, fund administration, and commercial real estate title and escrow services. We also offer these clients cost-effective and flexible staffing solutions through both on-site and off-site teams. We believe these largely recurring revenue…
• FY2025 10-K: …and money to replace the licensed software and databases, and our ability to operate our business may be materially adversely affected. Further, any errors or defects in third-party services or products (including hardware, software, databases, cloud computing and other platforms and systems) or in services or…
• FSV (FirstService Corporation)
• FY2025 40-F: …the calculation of current expected credit losses (CECL) on current accounts receivable and current contract assets arising from transactions accounted for under Topic 606, Revenue from Contracts with Customers. The guidance is effective January 1, 2026, and should be adopted prospectively. The adoption of this ASU…
• FY2025 40-F: …for the fees associated with the services performed on a straight line basis over the period the services are performed. The Company also provides additional services outside the scope of the property and amenity management services at the request of a customer which represents a distinct performance obligation.…
• BEKE (KE Holdings Inc.)
• FY2025 20-F: …the evolution of our services toward decision-oriented services, enhancing customer experience, improving service provider capabilities, and increasing platform operating efficiency, thereby strengthening our long-term competitiveness. We continue to strengthen our multi-modal AI technology foundation, developing…
• FY2025 20-F: …from housing customers. We have also expanded into home renovation and furnishing and home rental services, addressing long-standing industry pain points such as fragmented service quality and lack of transparency. By providing standardized and professional renovation and rental services, we are allowed to serve…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.