INTERPARFUMS, INC. (IPAR): what the price assumes

Generated: 2026-07-29 · Exported: 2026-08-01 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/IPAR

Headline

Field	Value
Ticker	IPAR
Company	INTERPARFUMS, INC.
Current price	$126.05/sh
Composition	United States based operations 32% / European based operations 68%

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

Field	Value
Inversion basis	whole-company
Operating margin (value-band context)	13.0%
Operating margin today	18.0%
Margin compression (value-band)	-5.0pp
Implied growth	10.8%
Multiple paid	16x operating income

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.5% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~6.2pp.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

Reference	Value
vs own history	-0.12σ
cohort percentile (of 68 peers)	25
sustained it ~5 years at this level	56%
implied end-window share	0%

Valuation X-Ray

Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore sits beyond what those standard frames encode.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Family	Median price/FV	Models	Reads
Asset	2.21x	5	expensive
Earnings	2.19x	4	expensive
Relative	1.35x	5	expensive
Growth	1.52x	4	expensive

Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.9%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=18)

Model	Family	FV	Price/FV	Applicable	Methodology
DCF Perpetual Growth	Growth	$80.74	1.56x	yes	FCF base $0.2B, growth 2% (input: historical growth), terminal g 1.8%, WACC 8.9%, 5yr projection
DCF Exit Multiple	Growth	$110.41	1.14x	yes	Exit EV/EBITDA: 12.3x / 14.3x / 16.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr
Relative Valuation	Relative	$120.78	1.04x	yes	P/E 22x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 18.6x / 22.0x / 25.4x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 14x
Simple DDM	Growth	—	—	no	—
Two-Stage DDM	Growth	$54.07	2.33x	yes	Stage 1: 2% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual
Simple Excess Return	Asset	$57.13	2.21x	yes	BV/sh $27.53, ROE (TTM) 19.2%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess Return	Asset	$81.36	1.55x	yes	5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market Cap	Growth	$85.24	1.48x	yes	Rev $1.5B, growth 2% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.3x / 2.7x / 3.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Peter Lynch Fair Value	Relative	$63.24	1.99x	yes	EPS $5.27, growth 2% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=11.70 (Overvalued)
Margin Trajectory	Growth	—	—	no	—
Earnings Power Value	Earnings	$58.19	2.17x	yes	Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.23B × (1−21%) / WACC 8.9% → EPV (no growth)
Residual Income	Asset	$79.60	1.58x	yes	BV $27.53 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 19.2% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr
Graham Number	Asset	$57.13	2.21x	yes	√(22.5 × EPS $5.27 × BVPS $27.53) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA Relative	Relative	$123.19	1.02x	yes	EBITDA $0.29B × sector EV/EBITDA 14.0x
FCF Yield	Earnings	$61.27	2.06x	yes	FCF $198.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF Yield	Earnings	—	—	no	—
Ben Graham Formula	Earnings	$55.55	2.27x	yes	EPS $5.27 × (8.5 + 2×2.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/B	Asset	$17.12	7.36x	yes	BV $27.53 × (ROIC 5.5% / WACC 8.9%)
P/Sales Sector	Relative	$93.33	1.35x	yes	Revenue $1.49B × sector P/S 2.0x
PEG Fair Value	Relative	$26.35	4.78x	yes	EPS $5.27 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 2.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 3.1x
Earnings Yield	Earnings	$56.97	2.21x	yes	EPS $5.27 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations Multiple	Relative	—	—	no	—
Clinical Phase NPV	Growth	—	—	no	—
Merton	Asset	—	—	no	—
V5 Mechanical	—	—	—	no	—

Solvency

Field	Value
Net debt	$28.2m
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)	0.13x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)	0.10x
Interest coverage	37.7x
Share count CAGR (dilution)	0.0%
Burning cash	no

Bullet Takeaways

• Inter Parfums is a fragrance house that licenses designer and luxury brand names, Coach, Montblanc, Jimmy Choo, Lacoste and others, and turns them into perfumes, owning the formulation, marketing, and distribution rather than the brand.
• The business is mature and steady: first-quarter 2026 net sales rose 2% to $345 million at a 21.5% operating margin, with the brand mix shifting as Coach grew 30% while Jimmy Choo and Lacoste declined.
• The key risk is external: the company depends on licenses it does not own and on a discretionary luxury market exposed to tariffs and regional demand swings, which management flagged directly.

Bull Case

Inter Parfums is best read as a mature, well-run cash machine in a category that quietly compounds, and framing it that way is what makes the bull case sensible. Fragrance is one of the most durable corners of consumer spending: a successful scent sells for years, the gross margins are high because the liquid costs little relative to the price, and the brand names carry the marketing weight. Inter Parfums reported a 65.1% gross margin and a 21.5% operating margin in the most recent quarter, the economics of a business selling aspiration in a bottle rather than a commodity.

The licensing model is the clever part. Rather than build a brand from scratch, Inter Parfums signs long-term licenses with fashion and luxury houses and supplies the one thing those houses rarely do well themselves: the chemistry, manufacturing, and global distribution of fragrance. That spreads risk across a portfolio of names, so no single brand carries the company. The most recent quarter showed the portfolio working as designed: Coach rose 30%, Montblanc 14%, GUESS 11%, and Roberto Cavalli 32%, which more than offset declines at Jimmy Choo and Lacoste. When some brands cool, others heat up, and the diversified roster keeps the whole machine growing.

The balance sheet matches the conservative profile. Inter Parfums carries minimal net debt, just under $30 million, against trailing operating income near $270 million, with interest coverage around 38 times. That is a company that funds its growth, its inventory, and its dividend out of its own cash flow without strain. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of roughly $1.48 billion in sales and $4.85 in EPS, the kind of steady, predictable outlook a mature consumer franchise should deliver. The price reflects a quality compounder rather than a turnaround or a growth gamble.

Bear Case

The variable with the most leverage on Inter Parfums is one it cannot control: the health of discretionary luxury spending, which bends with the macro cycle, tariffs, and regional geopolitics. Management itself flagged tariffs and regional geopolitical risks as pressures even while expressing cautious optimism. Fragrance is a small luxury, but it is still a luxury, and when consumers in any major region pull back, or when tariffs raise the landed cost of goods that move across borders, the volumes and margins feel it. A company that sells aspiration is exposed whenever aspiration gets postponed.

The structural fragility is the licensing model itself. Inter Parfums does not own most of the brands it sells; it rents them through licenses that eventually come up for renewal. A marquee license lost to a competitor, or renewed on worse terms, removes a meaningful chunk of revenue the company spent years building. The brand mix in the most recent quarter, with Jimmy Choo and Lacoste declining, is a reminder that not every name compounds, and the company is perpetually dependent on the licensors' own brand health and on keeping those relationships. Owning the chemistry is valuable, but the customer ultimately buys the name on the bottle, and the name belongs to someone else.

The growth profile is the quieter concern. At 2% net-sales growth in the most recent quarter and reaffirmed rather than raised guidance, this is a mature business growing modestly, and the price is reached only by the relative-multiple method, with the asset-based and earnings-power lenses both calling it expensive. That means the market is paying a premium peer multiple for low-single-digit growth. The balance sheet is pristine, so this is not a solvency bear; it is a multiple-and-cyclicality bear. If luxury demand softens or a key license wobbles, a stock priced for steady compounding has limited room to absorb the disappointment.

Valuation

Read as a mature consumer-staples-adjacent compounder, Inter Parfums is priced for steady continuation rather than acceleration. The inversion implies essentially flat-to-modest forward growth and a margin near today's levels, which matches a business that grew 2% in the most recent quarter and reaffirmed its full-year outlook. There is no heroic assumption embedded; the price is paying for the durability of a high-margin fragrance portfolio.

The methods divide cleanly. The relative-multiple family supports the price, valuing the company against its consumer-products peers, while the asset-based and earnings-power lenses sit below it and call the stock expensive on a static basis. That is the signature of a quality consumer franchise: the market pays up for the brand-licensing model and the margin profile, even though the book value and trailing earnings alone do not justify the price. The premium is the durability-and-brand premium, and it holds as long as the portfolio keeps growing and the margins hold. Among household and personal-products peers, this is a name valued on the reliability of its cash generation rather than on growth.

Solvency is a clear strength and bounds the downside well. Net debt is minimal, under $30 million, interest coverage runs near 38 times, and the share count has been flat, so there is no leverage risk and no dilution drag. The company funds its dividend and its working capital out of cash flow. The decisive variable is not the balance sheet; it is whether discretionary luxury demand holds and the license portfolio stays intact. The price is fair for a steady fragrance compounder, and it stays fair as long as the macro and the licenses cooperate.

Catalysts

The most recent quarter, the first of 2026, was a record despite modest top-line growth. Net sales rose 2% year over year to $345 million, diluted EPS of $1.35 came in more than 14% above analyst estimates, and gross margin improved to 65.1% from 63.7% with operating margin holding at 21.5%. The brand mix drove the result: Coach grew 30%, Roberto Cavalli 32%, Montblanc 14%, and GUESS 11%, offsetting declines at Jimmy Choo and Lacoste.

Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of roughly $1.48 billion in sales and $4.85 in EPS, a steady outlook that sat slightly below the most optimistic analyst estimates on revenue. Analysts left price targets effectively unchanged, consistent with a name viewed as a reliable compounder rather than a momentum story.

The forward watch items are the macro and the portfolio. Management flagged tariffs and regional geopolitical risk as the external pressures on a discretionary luxury category, while expressing cautious optimism about the fragrance market. The trajectory of the newer and renewed licenses, and any movement on license renewals, are the company-specific catalysts to track, since the licensing model is both the growth engine and the structural dependency.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

United States based operations / European based operations (reported)

• COTY (COTY INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …to finance the increase, we may not be able to produce the inventories required by demand, which could result in a loss of sales. In addition, we are reliant on our cash flows from operations to repay our indebtedness, which may impact the cash flows that are available for working capital needs. Our ability to…
• FY2025 10-K: …are unable to maintain and protect their intellectual property rights that we use in connection with our products, our ability to compete could be negatively impacted. • Our success depends on our ability to operate our business without infringing, misappropriating or otherwise violating the intellectual property of…
• EL (Estee Lauder Companies Inc)
• FY2025 10-K: , in some jurisdictions, permitting employees in those jurisdictions to work for our competitors. We are subject to risks related to the global scope of our operations. We operate on a global basis, with a substantial majority of our net sales and operating income generated outside the United States. We maintain…
• FY2025 10-K: …travel retail business. The net sales from the Company's global travel retail business are included in the Europe, the Middle East & Africa geographic region, with the exception of net sales of Dr.Jart+ in the travel retail channel that are reflected in Korea in the Asia/Pacific geographic region. For the…
• OLPX (OLAPLEX HOLDINGS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …global operations are subject to many risks and uncertainties, including: • fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates and the relative costs of operating in international jurisdictions; • local civil unrest, political instability or changes in diplomatic or trade relationships, such as geopolitical tensions…
• FY2025 10-K: …assessments and audits, and our liability for these taxes and associated penalties could exceed our original estimates. A successful assertion that we should be collecting additional sales, use, value added, goods and services or other taxes in those jurisdictions where we have not historically done so and do not…
• ELF (e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …including from and about actual and prospective customers, as well as our employees and business contacts. We also depend on a number of third party vendors in relation to the operation of our business, a number of which process personal information on our behalf. We are subject to a variety of laws and regulations…
• FY2025 10-K: …of operations. Additional tariff increases or trade restrictions imposed by the United States could materially adversely affect the results of operations of the Company's US business. We cannot predict whether these policies will continue or if new policies will be enacted; however, we could experience a material…
• CHD (CHURCH & DWIGHT CO., INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …policies of the U.S.; • changes in tariffs and taxes; • the effect of foreign income taxes, value-added taxes and withholding taxes, including the inability to recover amounts owed to us by foreign governments, and the determination of the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (the "I.R.S.") regarding the applicability of…
• FY2025 10-K: USD xbrli:shares xbrli:pure utr:lb xbrli:shares chd:Tons iso4217:USD chd:Segment utr:gal UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-K (MARK ONE) ☒ ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 OR ☐…
• CLX (CLOROX CO /DE/)
• FY2025 10-K: …and create inconsistent or conflicting requirements. The changes introduced by data privacy and protection regulations increase the complexity of regulations enacted to protect business and personal data and subject the Company to additional costs and have required, and may in the future require, costly changes to…
• FY2025 10-K: …to fund local business operations. In addition, a portion of the Company's cash balance is held in U.S. dollars by foreign subsidiaries, whose functional currency is their local currency. Such U.S. dollar balances are reported on the foreign subsidiaries' books, in their functional currency, with the impact from…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

Inter Parfums Q1 2026 earnings release · Inter Parfums Q1 2026 earnings call