INTUIT INC. (INTU): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $358.02, INTUIT INC. (INTU) is priced for +18.8% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/INTU

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 8: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 10.3% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.6%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=15)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• Intuit owns the two financial tasks small businesses and households cannot avoid: bookkeeping through QuickBooks and tax filing through TurboTax, and it has begun folding Consumer, Credit Karma, and ProTax into a single consumer business.
• The main risk is the price, not the business: the stock trades where only the optimistic methods reach, so a buyer is paying for double-digit growth to persist rather than for the profit Intuit already produces.
• Watch the fiscal fourth quarter ending July 31, where management guided to roughly 11% to 12% revenue growth, after Q3 revenue rose 10% to $8.56 billion and the company raised full-year revenue guidance.

Bull Case

Begin with the gap between what Intuit costs and what the conservative methods say it is worth, because that gap is the whole argument. The price sits well above the asset-based and earnings-power lenses and is reached only by the relative-multiple and forward-growth methods. For most companies that pattern is a warning. For Intuit it is the natural signature of a high-margin software franchise that compounds, because the methods that price a company on its book value or its current earnings systematically understate a business whose value is the recurring relationship, not the assets on the balance sheet.

The franchise is unusually durable because it sits on tasks people and businesses must do every year. QuickBooks is the accounting system small and mid-market firms run their operations on, and the 10-K describes the Global Business Solutions segment as serving "small and mid-market businesses around the world, and the accounting professionals" who work with them. TurboTax is the do-it-yourself tax product the company describes as "easy to use yet sophisticated enough for complex tax returns", spanning the full range from simple filings to investors and small-business owners. Once a small business keeps its books in QuickBooks, switching means re-entering years of financial history, which is why the relationship renews. Add Credit Karma, which grew about 19% over the period, and the consumer side is no longer just a seasonal tax product.

The economics behind the moat are what justify the premium. Intuit earns interest coverage above 23 times, carries net cash, and has actually shrunk its share count slightly over recent years, the rare large-cap that funds buybacks net of stock compensation rather than diluting through it. Management has tied the next leg of growth to its AI expert platform, combining its proprietary financial data with AI and human expertise. The bull case does not require a new story. It requires the existing story, double-digit revenue growth at expanding margins, to keep printing, which it did again in the most recent quarter.

Bear Case

The bear case begins with a simple observation a holder would rather not dwell on: you are paying a premium price for a company whose growth, while strong, is decelerating toward the low double digits. Intuit is no longer a hypergrowth story; it is a mature, dominant franchise growing revenue around 10%. The bear question is not whether the business is good. It plainly is. The question is whether 10%-ish growth justifies a price that the methods grounded in current earnings and assets cannot reach.

That price-to-fundamentals disconnect is the spine of the bear. The earnings-power and asset-value families both land below the current price, and only the relative-multiple and forward-growth methods reach it. Translated, the price requires roughly mid-teens segment growth to persist for an extended stretch. If that growth fades toward the broader software-sector pace, the multiple the market is willing to pay compresses, and a high-multiple stock falling to a lower multiple is a painful arithmetic even when nothing goes wrong operationally. The premium is the durability bet, and durability is exactly what slows as a franchise matures.

Two structural pressures sit underneath. First, seasonality concentrates a large share of consumer profit into a single tax season; the 10-K notes the Consumer and ProTax offerings have "a significant and distinct seasonal pattern", which means one weak season can swing a year. Second, the competitive environment is intensifying as financial services digitize: the company itself describes "a more dynamic and highly competitive environment where customer expectations are shifting" as the array of choices grows. AI lowers the cost of building tax and bookkeeping tools, and free or near-free filing options have nibbled at TurboTax before. The balance sheet is pristine, so this is not a solvency bear. It is a multiple-and-durability bear: the business is excellent and the price already knows it.

Valuation

The price embeds a clear assumption: that Intuit keeps growing its core segments in the mid-teens for a sustained period. That is the bet, stated plainly. It is not an outlandish bet for a franchise this entrenched, but it is a specific one, and it is what the buyer is underwriting at today's price.

The methods sort into the familiar two camps. The relative-multiple and forward-growth families reach the price; the asset-based and earnings-power families sit below it. For a capital-light software business that is the expected pattern rather than a red flag, because book value and trailing earnings cannot capture the value of a renewing customer base. The signal is in how far above the conservative methods the price sits and whether the growth assumption that closes the gap is reasonable. With segment growth still running in the mid-teens for Global Business Solutions and Credit Karma, the forward-growth method has a defensible foundation; the risk is entirely in the word sustained. Among its software peers, this is a name priced for continued compounding rather than a turnaround or a re-rating.

Solvency does not bound this story so much as remove it from the discussion. Intuit holds net cash, covers its interest more than twenty times over, and has nudged its share count down rather than up, which is direct evidence that buybacks are outrunning stock-based compensation. There is no leverage risk and no dilution drag to clear. The decisive variable is not the balance sheet; it is the growth rate. The price is high because the business is good, and it will stay supported only as long as the double-digit growth that the optimistic methods are extrapolating actually shows up in the prints.

Catalysts

The most recent quarter, fiscal third-quarter 2026 ended April 30, beat expectations on the metrics that matter and Intuit raised its full-year revenue guidance. Revenue rose 10% year over year to $8.56 billion, TurboTax revenue grew 7% to $4.4 billion, and Credit Karma grew 15% to $631 million. The company lifted full-year segment guidance, with Global Business Solutions to roughly 16% growth and the Consumer segment to about 10% growth.

The next scheduled event is the fiscal fourth quarter, which ends July 31, 2026, and closes the fiscal year. Management guided fourth-quarter revenue growth of roughly 11% to 12%, GAAP diluted EPS of $0.73 to $0.79, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $3.56 to $3.62. Because tax season concentrates so much of the consumer result, the fourth quarter and the closing read on the just-finished tax year together set the tone for fiscal 2027.

The strategic thread is AI. CEO Sasan Goodarzi has framed the company around an AI-driven expert platform that pairs Intuit's proprietary financial data with AI and human expertise. Management positions AI as a net tailwind to monetization rather than a threat, and the market's willingness to keep paying the premium will track whether AI features translate into higher attach rates and pricing rather than into new free competitors.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Global Business Solutions (reported)

• PAYC (Paycom Software, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …solution to serve clients located outside of the United States, our business is subject to risks associated with international operations. An element of our growth strategy is to expand our operations and client base, including in markets outside of the United States. Launching into international markets and doing…
• FY2025 10-K: …The market for HCM solutions is rapidly evolving, highly competitive and subject to changing technology, shifting client needs and frequent introduction of new products and services. Our competitors range from small, regional firms to large, well-established international firms with multiple product offerings. Our…
• PCTY (PAYLOCITY HOLDING CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …and solutions and those of third parties in the operation of our business. This includes, among other things, human capital solutions, financial solutions, customer relationship management solutions, software development solutions and tools, cybersecurity solutions and tools, and data center processing. We have…
• FY2025 10-K: …and file the necessary tax withholdings and filing documents for local, state and federal jurisdictions. Global Payroll - Our cloud-based global payroll solution enables U.S.-based companies to manage payroll for employees outside the U.S. in line with complex local and country-specific requirements across over 100…
• BILL (BILL HOLDINGS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …funds rapidly to meet urgent funding needs. We also facilitate near real-time payments to customers' debit cards via a service offered with a partner. • Checks - We issue checks if our customer prefers or needs to pay via this method. By design, we protect our SMB customers against check fraud by never disclosing…
• FY2025 10-K: …and the customer experience. We provide onboarding implementation support, as well as ongoing support and training. We periodically contact businesses using our solutions to discuss their utilization of our platform, highlight additional features that may interest them, and identify any additional tools that may be…
• PAYX (Paychex, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …suite of solutions to offer brokers, which can supplement their offerings to clients, and the Partner+ Program provides a structured framework designed to safeguard mutual clients from competing products. In addition, our Partner Portal provides brokers exclusive access to advanced HCM solutions, new revenue streams,…
• FY2025 10-K: …over 6 million employer firms in our target markets. The market for HCM solutions is highly competitive and fragmented. We have one primary national competitor and we also compete with other national, international, regional, local, and online payroll providers. In addition to traditional payroll processing and HR…
• BL (BlackLine, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …services. Our products are available for immediate use upon granting customer access. We typically assist customers with implementation and provide consulting services to help them optimize the use of our solutions. We invoice customers for our consulting services 43 on a time-and-materials basis and recognize that…
• FY2025 10-K: …focus to maintain and grow our leadership position with enterprise market businesses. We pursue a land-and-expand sales model and believe there is a significant opportunity to increase sales of our solutions within our existing customer base. Additionally, we intend to focus on expanding and developing solutions…
• WDAY (Workday, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …resellers. Our sales strategy is focused on both adding new customers and on growing our relationships with our existing customers to expand the adoption of our suite of solutions over time. As our customers realize the benefits of our entire suite of service offerings, we aim to upgrade the customers' experience…
• FY2025 10-K: …and political risks that are different from those in the United States. Our investments and efforts to further expand internationally may not be successful in creating additional demand for our applications outside of the United States or in effectively selling subscriptions to our applications in all of the markets…
• SAP (SAP SE)
• FY2025 20-F: …AI, and application lifecycle management-and SAP Cloud ERP solutions, which ease our customers' transformation to the cloud. These solutions help customers adopt new business models by enabling them to leverage AI, machine learning, and other intelligent technologies for enhanced data analytics and automation.…
• FY2025 20-F: …teams-across solutions, sales, services, customer engagement, ecosystem, and more-work together under an operating model that aims to harmonize internal processes with the goal of delivering improved outcomes for our customers. Feedback from our customers is crucial to our journey together. To systematically gather…

Consumer / ProTax (reported)

• CRM (Salesforce, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …crm:InvestmentConcentrationRiskMember crm:StrategicInvestmentsMember 2025-01-31 2025-01-31 0001108524 crm:TwoPrivatelyHeldInvestmentsMember crm:InvestmentConcentrationRiskMember crm:StrategicInvestmentsMember 2024-01-31 2024-01-31 0001108524 us-gaap:ForeignExchangeContractMember us-gaap:NondesignatedMember 2025-01-31…
• FY2025 10-K: 01108524 crm:MarketingandCommerceCloudMember 2022-02-01 2023-01-31 0001108524 crm:IntegrationAndAnalyticsMember 2024-02-01 2025-01-31 0001108524 crm:IntegrationAndAnalyticsMember 2023-02-01 2024-01-31 0001108524 crm:IntegrationAndAnalyticsMember 2022-02-01 2023-01-31 0001108524 srt:AmericasMember 2024-02-01 2025-01-31…
• NOW (ServiceNow, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …the period. Accordingly, our renewal rate is calculated based on ACV and is not based on the number of customers that have renewed. Further, our renewal rate does not reflect increased or decreased purchases from our customers to the extent such customers are not lost customers or lapsed renewals. A lost customer is…
• FY2025 10-K: …worldwide. Customers also have access to self-service resources through our support portal, which includes documentation, knowledge-based articles, online training, support forums and case creation tools. Professional Services Our professional services delivered directly and through our partners, include design,…
• BILL (BILL HOLDINGS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …subscription fees for access to its platform either based on the number of users or per customer account and the level of service. The Company generally also charges customers transaction fees based on transaction volume and the category of transaction. The contractual price for subscription and transaction services…
• FY2025 10-K: …of operations. The cost of capped calls executed in connection with the offering of the convertible senior notes is recorded as a reduction to additional paid-in capital in the consolidated statements of stockholders' equity (refer to Note 9 for further details on convertible senior notes and capped calls). Accrued…
• PAYC (Paycom Software, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …support our high client retention rate. Government Regulation We are subject to various regulations in each of the jurisdictions in which we provide services. Local laws and regulations, and their interpretation and enforcement, differ significantly among those jurisdictions. We are also subject to certain federal,…
• FY2025 10-K: …informed of, opt-out of, and request deletion of the personal information that we hold, similar to those rights provided by the EU GDPR. Notably, the GLBA is enforced under the authority of the Federal Trade Commission and requires our payment card services to adhere to a privacy notice and take certain measures to…
• SQ (Block, Inc.)
• (no filing in the citation store)
• XYZ (Block, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: Financial Instruments - Credit Losses (Topic 326): Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments ("ASU 2016-13"). The Company assesses impairment of its financial instruments based on current estimates of expected credit losses over the contractual term of its loans held for investment portfolio as of each…
• FY2025 10-K: …The Company also incurs other costs such as fees paid to third-party partners and processing fees to complete the consumer purchase transaction. The Company generally assumes non-repayment risk from the consumers. The Company initially recognizes a consumer receivable equal to net amounts paid to the seller plus any…
• SHOP (Shopify Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001594805 shop:APACMember us-gaap:GeographicConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0001594805 shop:APACMember us-gaap:GeographicConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0001594805…
• FY2025 10-K: …Disclosure 66 Item 9A: Controls and Procedures 66 Item 9B: Other Information 67 Item 9C: Disclosure Regarding Foreign Jurisdictions that Prevent Inspections 68 Part III Item 10: Directors, Executive Officers and Corporate Governance 69 Item 11: Executive Compensation 69 Item 12: Security Ownership of Certain…
• VEEV (Veeva Systems Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: 6; the stability, performance, and security of our hosting infrastructure and hosting services; and Veeva Systems Inc. | Form 10-K 23 Table of Contents • the business environment of our customers and, in particular, reductions in spending or headcount, and acquisitions of or business combinations between our customers…
• FY2025 10-K: …customers of Veeva Crossix that do not contract under a master subscription agreement, we count each entity that has a statement of work or services agreement and a recurring known payment obligation as a distinct customer if such entity is not otherwise a customer of ours. For Veeva Crossix, we do not count as…

Credit Karma (reported)

• SOFI (SoFi Technologies, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …of certain loans and expected credit losses on credit card receivables that we hold on balance sheet, and consequently have a material adverse effect on our revenues, results of operations, capital requirements, liquidity and cash flows. If we do not make accurate credit and pricing decisions or effectively forecast…
• FY2025 10-K: …of information in the files of consumer reporting agencies. FCRA requires a permissible purpose to obtain a consumer credit report and requires persons that furnish loan payment information to credit 18 SoFi Technologies, Inc. TABLE OF CONTENTS bureaus to report such information accurately. We are also required to…
• LC (LendingClub Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …of loan customers use our personal loan product to refinance existing higher interest rate credit card debt into a lower interest rate personal loan with us. Lower interest rates on credit cards could be accompanied by a reduction in credit availability, which may present an opportunity for us to offer our personal…
• FY2025 10-K: …by refinancing their existing auto loan. Our commercial lending business is primarily focused on small businesses, and we participate in the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) lending programs, certain of which guarantee a portion of the loan in the case of borrower default. Commercial loans are sourced through…
• UPST (Upstart Holdings, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …advantage. Any of the foregoing could adversely affect our ability to attract borrowers, lending partners and institutional investors and harm our business, financial condition and results of operations. 37 Table of Conte nts We rely on strategic relationships with loan aggregators to attract applicants to our…
• FY2025 10-K: …also advertise on streaming television services. • Marketing affiliates -A variety of online media partners, such as loan aggregators, send us traffic on a cost-per-origination basis. Many loan aggregators also incorporate application data to provide online prescreened offers, which leads to highly targeted and…

Article Insight (Recent News Sentiment)

Sentiment score: 65.00 (MEDIUM confidence) FUD/Hype: NONE Claim alignment: MIXED

The articles collectively suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook for Intuit, with analysts maintaining Buy ratings and high price targets despite recent share price weakness.

Is Intuit Inc. (INTU) A Good Stock To Buy Now? - Insider Monkey

• Scope: Summarizes a bullish thesis on Intuit, emphasizing its dominance in financial software.
• Data: The stock traded at $408.68 on April 22nd, with trailing P/E of 26.59.
• Verdict: Validates the core business strength identified in the analysis.

Deutsche Bank Reaffirms Buy on Intuit (INTU) After TurboTax Survey Insights - Insider Monkey

• Scope: Reports Deutsche Bank’s reaffirmed Buy rating and $600 price target.
• Data: Survey indicates TurboTax may meet or exceed guidance, with modest share growth.
• Verdict: Supports the potential for revenue growth within the TurboTax segment.

INTU Stock Analysis , Why Intuit Is Trading Near Its 52-Week Low Despite $600 Average Analyst Targets - Financial News

• Scope: Notes Intuit’s trading near its 52-week low despite positive analyst outlooks.
• Data: No specific data point provided, focuses on the price discrepancy.
• Verdict: Irrelevant to the core thesis, simply observes market behavior.

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.