IDACORP INC (IDA): what the price requires
At today's price, IDACORP INC (IDA) is priced for +7.7% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/IDA
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | IDA |
| Company | IDACORP INC |
| Current price | $151.66/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 16.1% |
| Operating margin today | 22.6% |
| Margin compression implied | -6.5pp |
| Implied growth | 7.7% |
| Multiple paid | 27x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 12, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 7% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~8.9pp.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~5.1 years; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | +0.63σ |
| cohort percentile (of 70 peers) | 77 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore requires assumptions beyond what those standard frames encode.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 2.40x | 4 | expensive |
| Earnings | 2.38x | 3 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.84x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 1.60x | 2 | expensive |
Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 6.9%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=14)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $100.23 | 1.51x | yes | Reference only (OCF-based, capex excluded): OCF $0.6B |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $0.00 | — | no | Negative/zero FCF or EBITDA — equity value floored at $0 |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $101.95 | 1.49x | yes | P/E 20x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 16.8x / 20.0x / 23.2x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 13x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $63.52 | 2.39x | yes | BV/sh $64.88, ROE (TTM) 9.1%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $62.86 | 2.41x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $90.34 | 1.68x | yes | Rev $1.8B, growth -1% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 3.9x / 4.6x / 5.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $70.80 | 2.14x | yes | EPS $5.90, growth 8% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=3.07 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $9.93 | 15.27x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.33B × (1−21%) / WACC 6.9% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $62.74 | 2.42x | yes | BV $64.88 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 9.1% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 5.9%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $92.80 | 1.63x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $5.90 × BVPS $64.88) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $85.90 | 1.77x | yes | EBITDA $0.61B × sector EV/EBITDA 13.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $125.23 | 1.21x | yes | EPS $5.90 × (8.5 + 2×8.4%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $5.90 | 25.70x | yes | BV $64.88 × (ROIC 0.6% / WACC 6.9%) (excluded from median) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $82.33 | 1.84x | yes | Revenue $1.81B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $74.45 | 2.04x | yes | EPS $5.90 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 8.4% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 12.6x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $63.78 | 2.38x | yes | EPS $5.90 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $3.2b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 9.44x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 7.46x |
| Interest coverage | 2.7x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 2.1% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
- IDACORP is the parent of Idaho Power, a regulated electric utility whose service territory has become a magnet for data centers, with a Meta facility in Kuna and Micron's Boise expansion driving load growth few utilities can match.
- The growth is concrete and regulated: Idaho Power expects peak load to rise about 1,000 megawatts over the next five years and is running a roughly $1.4 billion annual capital plan, which is the rate base that drives a regulated utility's earnings.
- The defining risk is the premium: at about 24 times earnings the stock trades above the typical utility, so it is priced for that growth to be earned cleanly through supportive rate cases.
Bull Case
The earnings trajectory tells the story, and for a utility the trajectory is built from rate base. Idaho Power's first quarter of 2026 showed the engine working: net income rose to $68.0 million from $59.6 million a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share climbed to $1.21 from $1.10, lifted by an $18.0 million increase in operating income from higher Idaho base rates effective January 1, 2026, the outcome of the 2025 general rate case settlement. That is exactly how a regulated utility grows: it invests capital in the grid, regulators allow it to earn a return on that investment, and rate cases convert the spending into higher rates and higher earnings. IDACORP reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of $6.25 to $6.45 in earnings per share.
What makes IDACORP unusual among utilities is the demand backdrop. Most utilities grow earnings in the low-to-mid single digits because their load is flat; IDACORP is in one of the few territories experiencing genuine load growth. Idaho Power expects peak load to grow about 1,700 megawatts over the next twenty years, including roughly 1,000 megawatts over the next five, and its customer base to expand from about 648,000 toward 867,000 by 2045, driven by data centers and industrial expansion including the Meta data center in Kuna and Micron's Boise growth. Load growth is the cleanest fuel a utility can have: it justifies capital investment, grows rate base, and spreads fixed costs across more megawatt-hours. That is why IDACORP is running a five-year capital plan averaging about $1.4 billion a year, including 250 megawatts of battery storage coming online in 2026 and the Boardman-to-Hemingway transmission line targeted for late 2027.
The franchise is durable and the dividend record speaks to it. IDACORP has paid a dividend for 56 consecutive years, recently declaring $0.88 per share quarterly, and the regulated monopoly model gives it predictable, low-volatility cash flows. The current operating margin near 19% is healthy for a utility, and the business is investment-grade with stable access to the debt and equity markets it needs to fund the build-out. The bull case is straightforward: a well-run regulated utility sitting on top of structural load growth that most of its peers would envy, converting a large capital plan into a rising earnings stream at regulated returns.
Bear Case
The fragile assumption baked into the price is that the load-growth story gets funded and earned cleanly, and that is a regulatory bet, not a market one. At about 24 times earnings, IDACORP trades at a meaningful premium to the typical utility near 20 times, and that premium exists entirely because the market believes the data-center-driven load growth translates into above-average rate-base and earnings growth. The risk is in the translation. A utility does not capture growth automatically; it has to file rate cases, and regulators decide what return on equity it earns and how much of its capital spending it can recover. Idaho Power's allowed return is set by the Idaho commission, and the same data-center growth that excites investors is already creating tension over who pays for it, with local debate about data centers driving up bills for existing customers. If regulators shift more of the cost burden onto the new large loads, or trim the allowed return, the earnings growth the premium assumes gets diluted.
The financial structure leaves little cushion if the plan slips. Net debt of about $3.2 billion sits at roughly nine times operating income, normal for a capital-intensive utility but a reminder that the business is heavily leveraged and rate-sensitive, with interest coverage near two times. The roughly $1.4 billion annual capital plan must be funded, and utilities fund growth partly by issuing equity, which is why the share count is growing about 2.1% a year. That dilution is a direct drag on per-share earnings growth: if rate base grows 7% but the share count grows 2%, per-share growth is meaningfully lower, and the premium multiple assumes the per-share figure, not the gross one.
The valuation methods are unanimous that the price has run ahead of current fundamentals. No family of method reaches today's $142.23 (June 27, 2026). The asset and earnings-power lenses, reading book value and current profit, land near $11 to $93 per share. Peer multiples land near $82 to $102. Even the growth-oriented methods do not reach the price. That unanimity is the signal: the price is a bet beyond what any standard frame supports on current numbers, defensible only if the load growth and the rate cases deliver the elevated earnings growth the market expects. The downside is not a utility going bankrupt; it is a premium multiple compressing toward the sector if the regulatory environment turns less supportive, the data-center pipeline slows, or rising rates raise the cost of the heavy capital program. A holder is paying up for growth that depends on regulators saying yes.
Valuation
The price is a bet on regulated growth, and the inversion frames it cleanly. At $142.23 the market is paying about 25 times operating income, which embeds continued elevated growth in the rate base and earnings, roughly 6% on the priced-in basis, sustained for years. For a utility, growth of that kind is not automatic; it requires the capital plan to be built and the rate cases to allow recovery at a healthy return. The current operating margin near 19% is solid, but the assumption that matters is the durability of the rate-base growth that the data-center load is supposed to drive.
How far the price sits from the methods is wide and unanimous, which is the point. Every family of method lands below the price. The asset and earnings-power lenses, anchored on a book value of $64.88 per share and a return on equity of about 9.1%, land between roughly $11 and $93, because a return on equity that merely matches the cost of equity generates little excess economic value. Peer multiples, using a sector earnings multiple near 20 times, land around $82 to $102. The growth-sensitive methods do not reach the price either. The spread between the price and the methods is the growth premium, and it is large, roughly 1.4 to 2 times on the peer and earnings-power lenses. That premium is the market pricing IDACORP as a faster-growing utility than the median, which is plausible given the load backdrop but is the entire bet.
Solvency carries the right utility frame. Net debt of about $3.2 billion at roughly nine times operating income and interest coverage near two times look heavy in absolute terms, but for a regulated utility funded by a deposit-like base of predictable cash flows, that leverage is normal and the rating agencies treat it accordingly; the meaningful constraint is the equity issuance needed to fund the $1.4 billion annual capital plan, which dilutes per-share growth at about 2.1% a year. The dividend, paid for 56 consecutive years, is the franchise's signature of stability. The decisive number for IDACORP is the gap between a roughly 24-times multiple and a sector near 20 times: the premium is justified only if the regulated rate-base growth materializes at the pace the data-center demand promises.
Catalysts
IDACORP reported first-quarter 2026 results on April 30, 2026, and beat estimates. Utility revenue rose to $432.5 million from $408.1 million, net income increased to $68.0 million from $59.6 million, and diluted earnings per share rose to $1.21 from $1.10, driven by an $18.0 million operating-income lift from higher Idaho base rates effective January 1, 2026, following the 2025 general rate case settlement. The company reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of $6.25 to $6.45 in earnings per share.
The forward story is the capital plan and the load it serves. IDACORP guided to capital expenditure of $1.3 to $1.5 billion in 2026 within a five-year plan averaging about $1.4 billion annually, including 250 megawatts of battery storage online in 2026 and the Boardman-to-Hemingway transmission line targeted for late-2027 service. The demand behind it is the Meta data center in Kuna, Micron's Boise expansion, and broader data-center interest that underpins an expected 1,000-megawatt peak-load increase over five years. The watch items are the regulatory ones: the outcome and cadence of future rate cases, the allowed return on equity, and how regulators allocate the cost of serving large new loads, because those decisions determine whether the load growth becomes the earnings growth the price is paying for. The company also declared its quarterly dividend of $0.88 per share, continuing a 56-year payment record.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Utility Operations (reported)
- NEE (NextEra Energy Inc)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- DUK (DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- SO (SOUTHERN CO)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- AEP (AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- D (DOMINION ENERGY, INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- EXC (EXELON CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- XEL (XCEL ENERGY INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
IDACORP Q1 2026 earnings release, April 2026 · IDACORP Q1 2026 earnings call and capital plan, 2026 · IDACORP dividend declaration, 2026