ICL GROUP LTD. (ICL): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $5.24, ICL GROUP LTD. (ICL) is priced for -1.6% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/ICL

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 7.4% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~6.9pp.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~10.4%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by earnings-power and growth-DCF value, while asset-based/relative-multiple land below the price. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Earnings, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Relative

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.3%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=16)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• ICL Group is a specialty-minerals and fertilizer company spanning potash, phosphate, bromine-based industrial products, and crop nutrition, with the Dead Sea as one of its core resource assets.
• The current strength is broad-based: first-quarter 2026 sales rose 14% to $2.023 billion with potash sales up 24% on higher shipments to China and Brazil, and management raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.5 to $1.7 billion.
• The defining risk is commodity prices: potash, phosphate, and bromine prices drive the earnings, so the same price tailwind lifting results today can reverse, and a low return on equity of about 4.5% leaves limited cushion when it does.

Bull Case

The earnings trajectory is turning up across every part of the business, which is the cleanest way into the bull case. After a soft stretch for fertilizer and specialty-mineral prices, ICL's first quarter of 2026 showed broad-based recovery: consolidated sales rose 14% year over year to $2.023 billion, operating income reached $235 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew 15% to $412 million. Diluted earnings per share rose to $0.10 from $0.07. Crucially, the growth was not concentrated in one product: potash sales rose 24% on higher shipments to China and Brazil, and the phosphate, industrial-products, and crop-nutrition segments all grew. When every division moves in the same direction, the recovery reads as a cycle turning rather than a single-product fluke.

The resource base is the structural advantage that the cycle sits on top of. ICL extracts potash and bromine from the Dead Sea, a low-cost, long-life resource position that gives it a durable cost advantage in those products, and bromine in particular is a specialty market where ICL holds a leading position. That cost position is what lets the company stay profitable through the trough and capture outsized operating leverage when prices recover, which is exactly what the first quarter showed. Management's decision to raise full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.5 to $1.7 billion, up from $1.4 to $1.6 billion, signals confidence that the price and volume momentum continues.

The valuation and balance sheet both support the case. The methods read ICL as a value-and-asset-supported name: the earnings-power, peer-multiple, and growth lenses all land near or above the price, and several conservative cash-flow methods land above it, suggesting the price does not require optimism. The balance sheet is conservative for a commodity producer, with net debt of about $2.5 billion at well under one times trailing operating income and interest coverage above five times. ICL also raised its dividend, declaring 5.35 cents per share versus 4.26 cents a year earlier. The bull case is a low-cost resource producer at a favorable point in the price cycle, returning cash and trading at a price the methods already justify.

Bear Case

The fragile assumption baked into today's results is that the current commodity prices hold, and that is the one thing ICL does not control. Management was explicit that the quarter benefited from price increases for bromine, potash, and phosphate, even as raw-material costs rose, with sulfur prices alone up more than 100%. Strip the price tailwind and the picture is different. Potash and phosphate are global commodities set by supply-and-demand swings, new capacity, and the buying behavior of a few large importers like China and India, and those prices have historically been volatile. The recovery that lifted the first quarter can reverse, and when fertilizer prices fall, a producer's revenue and margin fall together because volumes cannot be raised fast enough to offset price.

The underlying returns are thin enough to make that price dependence dangerous. Return on equity is only about 4.5%, well below the roughly 9.3% cost of equity, and return on invested capital near 4.1% sits below the cost of capital too. That means even in a recovering quarter, ICL is not clearly earning its keep on the capital deployed; the business creates economic value only when commodity prices are favorable. The asset-value methods reflect this, landing well below the price, because a low return on a sizable asset base produces little excess value. A company that earns its cost of capital only at the top of the price cycle is structurally exposed: the good years look fine, but the through-cycle economics are mediocre.

The geographic and operational concentration adds risk the price does not obviously reward. ICL's core resource operations are concentrated in a single region, which carries geopolitical, regulatory, water-rights, and concession-renewal exposures that a diversified miner does not face to the same degree. The valuation is fair rather than cheap, the methods support the price but do not point to a large discount, so a holder is buying a low-return, price-cyclical producer at a reasonable price, with the upside dependent on commodity prices staying elevated. The downside is not solvency; the balance sheet is sound. It is that the earnings power on display today is a function of a price environment that is the most volatile variable in the business, and a reversion would expose how modest the through-cycle returns actually are.

Valuation

What the price assumes is undemanding, which is the right read for a commodity producer at a fair point in its cycle. The implied growth embedded in the price is slightly negative, meaning the market is not requiring ICL to expand at all; it is requiring the business to hold roughly where it is. The current operating margin near 19% is healthy, but for a fertilizer-and-minerals company that margin is largely a function of commodity prices, so the assumption that matters is not growth but price sustainability.

The methods cluster around the price in a way that marks it value-supported rather than stretched. The earnings-power method, capitalizing normalized operating profit, lands near $6.43, above the $5.14 price (June 27, 2026), and the zero-growth cash-flow methods land near $6.72, also above it, both suggesting the price is reasonable on current and normalized earnings. The peer-multiple and dividend-discount methods land right around the price. The lens that says expensive is the asset-value one, landing near $1.36 to $2.39, because ICL's return on equity of about 4.5% is below its cost of equity, so the large asset base generates little excess economic value. That split, cheap on earnings power and cash flow, expensive on returns, is the signature of a low-return business at a moment when prices are lifting its cash generation above its through-cycle norm.

Solvency is a genuine strength and bounds the downside. Net debt of about $2.5 billion sits at well under one times trailing operating income, with interest coverage above five times and a roughly flat share count. The company is comfortably covering its dividend, which it just raised. The decisive number for ICL is not a valuation gap; it is the distance between its current-cycle profitability and its mediocre through-cycle returns, a gap that is entirely about where potash, phosphate, and bromine prices go, and entirely outside the company's control.

Catalysts

ICL Group reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 13, 2026, and they were strong across the board. Consolidated sales rose 14% year over year to $2.023 billion, operating income reached $235 million, adjusted EBITDA grew 15% to $412 million, and net income attributable to shareholders rose to $126 million, lifting diluted earnings per share to $0.10 from $0.07. Potash led with sales up 24% on higher shipments to China and Brazil, and all four main segments grew. Management attributed the gains to higher prices for bromine, potash, and phosphate, partly offset by rising raw-material costs, with sulfur prices up more than 100%.

The forward signals were positive on both guidance and capital return. ICL raised its full-year 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.5 to $1.7 billion, up from $1.4 to $1.6 billion, and declared a dividend of 5.35 cents per share, roughly $69 million, up from 4.26 cents a year earlier and payable on June 17, 2026. The watch items are the commodity prices that drive the business: potash and phosphate pricing, which depends heavily on demand from large importers like China and Brazil, and bromine pricing in the specialty markets. Those prices, more than any company-specific decision, will determine whether the raised guidance holds and whether the broad-based momentum continues.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Core business (reported)

• DD (DUPONT DE NEMOURS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …offers a variety of well-known brands, such as Vespel ® shapes and parts, MOLYKOTE ® specialty lubricants, BETAFORCE™ and BETASEAL™ structural adhesives, and Cyrel ® flexographic printing plates. These products help customers minimize downtime, improve product performance, and reduce the total cost of ownership in…
• FY2025 10-K: …not subject to future reimbursement ("Stranded Costs"). Stranded Costs are reported within continuing operations in Corporate and are included within Operating EBITDA. The Company's measure of profit/loss for segment reporting purposes is Operating EBITDA as this is the manner in which the Company's chief operating…
• OLN (Olin Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …costs, including energy, propylene and cumene, customer demand, and global fluctuations in supply and demand. Periods of supply and demand imbalances, particularly changes in trade flows within Asia Pacific markets, particularly China, can result in increased pricing pressure on our epoxy products. Declines in…
• FY2025 10-K: …selection criteria. Pricing is subject to a variety of factors, some of which are outside of our control. Decreases in the average selling prices of our products could have a material adverse effect on our profitability. While we strive to maintain or increase our profitability by executing our operating model and by…
• RPM (RPM International Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …sources, and identifying alternative materials or technology; however, sole source suppliers, the unavailability of raw materials or increased prices of raw materials that we are unable to pass along to our customers could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations or…
• FY2025 10-K: . Our direct exports from the United States were approximately 0.8% of our total net sales for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025. In addition, we receive license fees and royalty income from numerous international license agreements, and we also have several joint ventures, which are accounted for under the equity…
• GPK (Graphic Packaging Holding Co)
• FY2025 10-K: …customer functions. The Company is organized to bring the full resources of its global and local innovation, design and manufacturing capabilities to all of its customers with the goal of delivering packaging solutions that are more circular, more functional and more convenient. The Company competes with a wide range…
• FY2025 10-K: …customers include GlaxoSmithKline, Bayer, Johnson & Johnson, Abbott, Novartis, L'Oréal S.A., Procter & Gamble and Colgate-Palmolive. The Company also sells paperboard in the open market to independent and integrated paperboard packaging producers. Sales of the Company's principal products are primarily accomplished…
• CC (Chemours Co)
• FY2025 10-K: …the cyclicality of key end markets, such as industrial, chemical processing, consumer goods, and transportation, and is expected to grow in line with GDP. However, with growing demand for cleaner and faster technologies, demand for products in the performance solutions portfolio is expected to grow at a rate faster…
• FY2025 10-K: EBITDA decreased by $156 million (or 52%) to $145 million and Segment Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased by approximately 600 basis points to 6% for the year ended December 31, 2025, compared with Segment Adjusted EBITDA of $301 million and Segment Adjusted EBITDA margin of 12% for the same period in 2024. The decreases…
• EMN (EASTMAN CHEMICAL CO)
• FY2025 10-K: …divested businesses, non-operational sites and product lines, and discontinued programs. (6) Segment assets include accounts receivable, inventory, fixed assets, goodwill, and intangible assets. 109 Table of Contents NOTES TO THE AUDITED CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS For year ended December 31, 2023 (Dollars in…
• FY2025 10-K: …expenses, other components of post-employment (benefit) cost, net, and other (income) charges, net. (2) Other is not considered an operating segment. Other includes sales and costs from growth initiatives and businesses, R&D costs, pension and other postretirement benefit plans income (expense), net, and other income…
• HUN (Huntsman Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …of suppliers. We consume certain amines produced by our Performance Products segment and isocyanates produced by our Polyurethanes segment, which we use to formulate our Advanced Materials products. For additional information about our risks of raw material supply chain disruptions, see "Part I. Item 1A. Risk…
• FY2025 10-K: …byproducts and raw materials. Polyurethanes The decrease in revenues in our Polyurethanes segment for 2025 compared to 2024 was primarily due to lower average selling prices, partially offset by higher sales volumes. MDI average selling prices decreased primarily due to less favorable supply and demand dynamics.…
• AVY (AVERY DENNISON CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …foreign jurisdictions, partially offset by higher tax charges from valuation allowances. Refer to Note 14, "Taxes Based on Income," to the Consolidated Financial Statements for more information. RESULTS OF OPERATIONS BY REPORTABLE SEGMENT Our CODM uses segment adjusted operating income to evaluate segment performance…
• FY2025 10-K: …global economic conditions, tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, and changes in environmental standards, regulations and preferences; (ii) competitors' actions, including pricing, expansion in key markets, and product offerings; (iii) the cost and availability of raw materials; (iv) the degree to which higher costs can…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.