HOST HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. (HST): what the price requires
At today's price, HOST HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. (HST) is priced for -0.3% FFO growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/HST
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | HST |
| Company | HOST HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. |
| Current price | $23.04/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | reit |
| Implied FFO growth | -0.3% |
| Price-to-FFO | 10.1x |
| FFO yield | 9.9% |
Solve inputs: computed at a 11.1% cost of equity with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of equity moves the implied growth ~3.2pp.
How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.35σ |
| cohort percentile (of 88 peers) | 23 |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.16x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 0.90x | 4 | justifies |
| Relative | 0.52x | 6 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.70x | 4 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings, Relative, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=19)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $52.28 | 0.44x | yes | FCF base $1.6B, growth 6% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.2%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $30.43 | 0.76x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 6.5x / 8.5x / 10.5x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $51.74 | 0.45x | yes | P/E 25.06x (blended: static sector reference 35x + trailing (TTM) 10x), scenarios: 21.0x / 25.1x / 29.1x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 15.4x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $35.35 | 0.65x | yes | Stage 1: 12% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $15.86 | 1.45x | yes | BV/sh $9.90, ROE (TTM) 14.8%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $19.83 | 1.16x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $18.94 | 1.22x | yes | Rev $6.2B, growth 6% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.2x / 2.6x / 3.0x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $27.24 | 0.85x | yes | FFO/share $2.27, growth 12% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 9y median), PEG=1.36 (Fair) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $13.73 | 1.68x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.71B × (1−3%) / WACC 9.2% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $20.37 | 1.13x | yes | BV $9.90 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 14.8% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $22.49 | 1.02x | yes | √(22.5 × FFO/share $2.27 × BVPS $9.90) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $51.02 | 0.45x | yes | EBITDA $1.68B × sector EV/EBITDA 20.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $26.60 | 0.87x | yes | FCF $1547.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $60.02 | 0.38x | yes | FFO/share $2.27 × (8.5 + 2×11.5%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $6.35 | 3.63x | yes | BV $9.90 × (ROIC 5.9% / WACC 9.2%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $53.66 | 0.43x | yes | Revenue $6.17B × sector P/S 6.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $39.24 | 0.59x | yes | FFO/share $2.27 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 11.5% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 9y median)) → PE 17.3x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $24.54 | 0.94x | yes | FFO/share $2.27 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | $32.25 | 0.71x | yes | FFO/share $2.27 × 14.2x P/FFO (route cohort median, n=85); FFO $1.57B (FFO incl. D&A + impairments, FY2025, companyfacts), shares 689M |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt (REIT basis) | $3.4b |
| Net debt / FFO | 2.15x |
| Fixed-charge coverage (FFO basis) | 7.7x |
| Funds from operations (trailing) | $1.6b |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -0.9% |
| Burning cash | no |
REIT basis: leverage is read against funds from operations (FFO), not depreciation-gutted operating income. The header's implied growth runs on ADJUSTED FFO — FFO minus recurring maintenance capex — so the header's multiple and this leverage ratio use bases that differ by that capex; neither substitutes for the other.
Bullet Takeaways
- Host Hotels is the largest lodging REIT, owning a geographically diverse portfolio of upper-upscale and luxury hotels in high-barrier U.S. urban and resort markets, and it raised its full-year 2026 comparable RevPAR growth guidance to 3.0% to 4.5%.
- The biggest risk is the lodging cycle itself: hotel revenue resets nightly, so a slowdown in business and group travel would hit room rates and occupancy directly, with no lease to cushion the drop.
- Watch the RevPAR trajectory and the next funds-from-operations print after first-quarter adjusted FFO per share of $0.67 rose 4.7% year over year.
Bull Case
The trajectory is the bull case, and it is pointing up across the metrics that govern a hotel REIT. First-quarter comparable RevPAR rose 4.4% and total RevPAR 4.6%, total revenue grew 3.2% to $1.65 billion, and adjusted funds from operations per share rose 4.7% to $0.67, beating expectations. On the strength of that demand and pricing, management raised full-year comparable RevPAR guidance to 3.0% to 4.5% and total RevPAR to 3.5% to 5.0%. For a business whose revenue resets every night, accelerating room rates flowing through to higher cash earnings is exactly the momentum a lodging owner wants to show.
The portfolio is built for this kind of pricing power. The company's strategy, in its own words, is to "Own a diversified portfolio of hotels in the U.S. in major urban and resort destinations", targeting "markets with diverse demand generators, high barriers to entry, favorable supply and demand". High barriers to entry matter because new luxury hotel supply is slow and expensive to build, so when demand recovers, existing owners capture the rate. The filing notes that overall hotel supply growth remained low even as some independent properties converted to branded upscale and luxury, which keeps the competitive set from flooding.
The balance sheet turns that operating momentum into a durable proposition. Net debt sits at roughly 2.15 times funds from operations, low for a REIT, with fixed-charge coverage near 7.6 times, and the share count has edged down rather than up. That is an underleveraged hotel owner with room to acquire, renovate, or buy back stock through the cycle. A REIT generating growing cash earnings with this little leverage has the optionality that a more stretched competitor lacks, and the demonstrated value of the real estate underpins the equity even before the growth is credited.
Bear Case
The bear case rests on a single fragile assumption baked into the price: that the lodging cycle keeps delivering RevPAR growth. A hotel is the most operationally leveraged form of real estate because it has no lease. Every room is repriced daily, which is wonderful when demand is rising and brutal when it is not. The raised 2026 guidance of 3.0% to 4.5% comparable RevPAR growth is the company's confidence today, but it is a forecast about discretionary corporate, group, and leisure travel, all of which contract quickly in a downturn. The price assumes the upcycle persists; the most fragile part of that assumption is that business and group demand, the segments that fill upper-upscale hotels midweek, hold through any softening in the broader economy.
Supply and substitution are the slower-burning pressures on the same assumption. The filing acknowledges that conversions of "properties from independent properties to upscale or luxury brands caused an increase in the supply for upscale and luxury properties", and that "online short-term rentals are a source of non-traditional supply for the industry, in both urban and resort destinations". Branded short-term rentals and brand conversions chip at the scarcity that lets Host push rate, and over time that erosion shows up as slower RevPAR growth than the cycle alone would suggest. The moat is real but not absolute.
The valuation does not leave a wide cushion for the cycle disappointing. The price sits at roughly 13 times adjusted funds from operations, which inverts to AFFO growth of only about 1.9% a year, a modest bar that the static value methods broadly support. But the asset-value lenses already read the price above where book value plus profitability lands, and the capitalized-cash-earnings lens with no growth sits below the price, meaning the price needs the growth to materialize. If RevPAR flattens or turns negative in a recession, AFFO does not merely grow slower, it can fall, and a hotel REIT's cash earnings are more cyclical than the modest implied-growth figure suggests. The downside is bounded by the real value of the hotels and the low leverage, but the equity still rides the cycle.
Valuation
A hotel REIT is valued on its adjusted funds from operations, the cash earnings after the recurring capital it takes to keep the rooms competitive, not on an operating multiple. At about 13 times adjusted funds from operations, the price implies the trust grows that cash-earnings stream only about 1.9% a year. Read that as a direction rather than a measured figure, but the direction is undemanding: the market is paying a price that asks for low-single-digit AFFO growth, well below the 4.7% per-share growth Host just posted and below the RevPAR growth it has guided to. The price is set on continuation at a slow pace, not on the cycle running hot.
The methods agree this is a value-supported name rather than a growth bet. The funds-from-operations multiple lens, the peer-multiple lens, and the dividend-and-growth methods all sit at or above the price, and several land well above it. Only the asset-value lenses read the price as full, which is normal for a REIT whose hotels are carried at depreciated cost far below replacement value. The pattern says the price is supported by the cash the portfolio actually throws off and by where comparable lodging REITs trade, with the route-cohort funds-from-operations multiple near 13 times sitting close to the price itself. The market is not paying up for Host; if anything it is discounting the cyclicality.
Leverage is the reassuring part of the close. Net debt at roughly 2.15 times funds from operations is conservative for a REIT, and fixed-charge coverage near 7.6 times means the company comfortably covers its debt service and preferred obligations out of cash earnings. A declining share count adds the buyback signal on top. The risk the valuation rests on is not the balance sheet; it is the lodging cycle. The downside is bounded by the demonstrated value of an underleveraged, high-quality hotel portfolio, and the question the price asks is simply whether RevPAR keeps growing, even slowly, from here.
Catalysts
The RevPAR trajectory is the catalyst that drives everything for a hotel REIT, and the recent direction is favorable. Management raised full-year 2026 comparable RevPAR growth guidance to 3.0% to 4.5% and total RevPAR to 3.5% to 5.0%, up from the prior ranges, after first-quarter comparable RevPAR rose 4.4% with particular strength in markets like San Francisco and Miami. Each quarterly print is a referendum on whether business, group, and leisure demand sustain that pace, and a guidance raise versus a cut is the single most important signal for the stock.
The cash-earnings and capital-return reads sit alongside it. Adjusted funds from operations per share of $0.67 in the first quarter, up 4.7% year over year, is the metric the valuation turns on, and the company updated its full-year per-share earnings guidance accordingly. With leverage low and the share count drifting down, the secondary catalyst is capital deployment: acquisitions, renovations, or buybacks funded out of a conservative balance sheet would each shape the AFFO-per-share path. The next earnings call's commentary on group booking pace and any change to the RevPAR range is where the cycle's direction becomes legible.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Hotel Ownership (reported)
- DRH (DIAMONDROCK HOSPITALITY CO)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- RHP (RYMAN HOSPITALITY PROPERTIES, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- PEB (PEBBLEBROOK HOTEL TRUST)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- APLE (APPLE HOSPITALITY REIT, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
company FY2026 guidance, February 2026 · Q1 FY2026 results, 2026 · Q1 FY2026 results and FY2026 guidance, 2026