Honeywell International Inc (HON): what the price assumes
boothcheck covers Honeywell International Inc (HON) but does not put one priced-in number on it: here the defensible answer is the evidence rather than a point estimate. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.
Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/HON
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | HON |
| Company | Honeywell International Inc |
| Current price | $217.65/sh |
| Composition | Commercial Aviation Original Equipment 7% / Commercial Aviation Aftermarket 21% / Defense and Space 19% / Sensing and Safety Technologies 3% / Productivity Solutions and Services 3% / Process Solutions 16% / Warehouse and Workflow Solutions 2% / Building Products 12% / Building Solutions 8% / UOP 8% / Corporate and All Other 0% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (value-band context) | 7.3% |
| Operating margin today | 22.0% |
| Margin compression (value-band) | -14.7pp |
| Multiple paid | 10x operating income |
The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.
The price sits below what even a 5%/yr operating-profit decline would warrant; the inversion reports a bound, not a solved growth path.
Solve inputs: computed at a 7.2% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.
How unusual the bet is: n/a
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| cohort percentile (of 225 peers) | 8 |
Valuation X-Ray
Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 7.66x | 4 | expensive |
| Earnings | 4.02x | 3 | expensive |
| Relative | — | 0 | — |
| Growth | 0.73x | 4 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 6.4%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=11)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $331.67 | 0.66x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 8.4x / 10.4x / 12.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | — | — | no | P/E 36.26x (blended: static sector reference 22x + trailing (TTM) 70x), scenarios: 30.3x / 36.3x / 42.2x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 14x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | $271.17 | 0.80x | yes | DPS $10.03, g=5.4% (sustainable: ROE (TTM) × retention; not the terminal-growth assumption), ke=9.3% |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $355.86 | 0.61x | yes | Stage 1: 20% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $33.84 | 6.43x | yes | BV/sh $58.49, ROE (TTM) 5.4%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $24.47 | 8.89x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $226.12 | 0.96x | yes | Rev $38.1B, growth 5% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.5x / 1.8x / 2.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $2.37 | 91.84x | yes | EPS $0.07, growth 35% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=1.99 (Overvalued) (excluded from median) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $307.56 | 0.71x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $8.02B × (1−22%) / WACC 6.4% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $23.35 | 9.32x | yes | BV $58.49 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 5.4% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 3.5%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $9.45 | 23.03x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $0.07 × BVPS $58.49) — Graham's conservative floor (excluded from median) |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | EBITDA $9.15B × sector EV/EBITDA 14.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $54.11 | 4.02x | yes | FCF $4010.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $47.63 | 4.57x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $3.82B (FCF $4.01B − SBC $0.19B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $2.19 | 99.38x | yes | EPS $0.07 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $35.75 | 6.09x | yes | BV $58.49 × (ROIC 3.9% / WACC 6.4%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | — | — | no | Revenue $38.06B × sector P/S 2.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $2.54 | 85.69x | yes | EPS $0.07 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x (excluded from median) |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $0.73 | 298.15x | yes | EPS $0.07 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) (excluded from median) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
Material operating units span distinct economics, so a single sector multiple or target margin is not representative. Consolidated cash-flow lenses may remain as secondary checks, while segment SOTP is primary.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aerospace Technologies | operating | enterprise | $17.5b | $4.3b operating-income | $68.5b indicative EV subtotal | indicative enterprise value |
| Industrial Automation | operating | enterprise | $9.4b | $1.7b operating-income | $44.6b indicative EV subtotal | indicative enterprise value |
| Energy and Sustainability Solutions | operating | enterprise | $3.1b | $692.0m operating-income | $12.5b indicative EV subtotal | indicative enterprise value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $24.8b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 3.79x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 2.97x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -1.8% |
| Burning cash | no |
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
- Honeywell is in the middle of taking itself apart: the Aerospace spin-off is on track for completion on June 29, with $20 billion of spin financing raised, alongside agreed sales of the Warehouse and Workflow Solutions and Productivity Solutions and Services businesses.
- The biggest risk is that the value the breakup is meant to unlock is already in the price; the stock is priced richer than every standard valuation frame supports, with Industrial Automation, the segment carrying the premium, sitting at the very top of its peer distribution.
- Watch the post-spin Honeywell against full-year guidance of 3% to 6% organic growth and adjusted EPS of $10.35 to $10.65; the first quarter showed 2% organic growth but strong 90 basis points of margin expansion to 23.3%.
Bull Case
What a single blended multiple misses about Honeywell today is that the company is deliberately ceasing to be one company. The Aerospace spin-off is set to complete on June 29, with $20 billion of spin financing raised and investment-grade ratings secured, and the company has also agreed to sell its Warehouse and Workflow Solutions business and its Productivity Solutions and Services unit. A conglomerate trades at a discount to the sum of its parts because no single peer group fits it; the breakup is the mechanism for collapsing that discount. The remaining Honeywell becomes a cleaner automation-and-energy story, and the separated Aerospace business gets valued against aerospace peers rather than buried in an industrial average.
The underlying businesses are executing well even before the structure changes. First-quarter sales of $9.1 billion grew 2% organically, but segment profit grew 6% and segment margin expanded 90 basis points to 23.3%, and adjusted EPS rose 11% to $2.45 on strong pricing across the portfolio. Margin expansion outrunning revenue growth is the signature of a disciplined operator pulling cost and pricing levers, and Honeywell's filing shows the granular portfolio work, including organic growth in Building Solutions and the Access Solutions acquisition becoming organic in its second year.
The balance sheet and cash generation give the transformation room. Interest is covered more than 23 times over, and management guides to free cash flow of $5.3 to $5.6 billion for the year against adjusted EPS guidance of $10.35 to $10.65, with the share count already shrinking about 2% annually. Aerospace is guided to high-single-digit organic sales growth, and the aftermarket installed base is a long-duration annuity that travels with the spun company. The bull case is a well-run set of franchises being unlocked from a conglomerate wrapper, with margin momentum and ample cash funding the transition.
Bear Case
The bear case begins with what is happening to the automation moat that once defined Honeywell. The company's industrial-automation and building businesses face a shifting competitive landscape, and the 10-K names the pressures directly: changes in the competitive landscape, including new market entrants and new technologies, and fluctuations in inventory levels in distribution channels. Short-cycle automation demand has been soft, dependent on a recovery in Europe and China that has not fully arrived, and the segment that the market is paying the steepest premium for, Industrial Automation, is the one whose end-market recovery is least in Honeywell's control. A moat built on incumbency in process and building controls erodes quietly as new entrants and digital-native competitors chip at the edges.
The valuation is where that erosion becomes an investment problem. No standard valuation family reaches the current price; the stock is rich on assets, earnings power, peers, and even forward growth. The price implies the Industrial Automation segment grows operating profit about 14.3% a year for five years, a multiple that sits at the very top of its peer distribution and that only about 46% of comparable fast-growers sustained for that long. Set that against first-quarter organic growth of just 2%, and the gap between what the price assumes and what the business is currently delivering is the heart of the bear case.
The breakup itself carries risk the optimists tend to wave away. Spinning Aerospace and selling two more businesses generates restructuring and separation charges that already depressed reported EPS, and a standalone Honeywell loaded with $20 billion of new spin financing and existing net debt near $24 billion will look more levered on a smaller revenue base. The filing flags supply-chain and demand disruptions across the segments, and a transformation of this scale invites execution risk, dis-synergies, stranded costs, and management attention diverted to deal mechanics. The bear case is not that the parts are bad; it is that the market has already priced the sum-of-the-parts upside, leaving the buyer exposed to soft short-cycle demand and the messy mechanics of getting there.
Valuation
Because Honeywell is a collection of businesses with different peer groups, the right way to read its price is segment by segment, and the inversion locates the premium precisely. The segment carrying the priced-in premium is Industrial Automation, and the price implies it grows operating profit about 14.3% a year for five years. That multiple sits at the very top of its peer distribution, well beyond the upper quartile, and only about 46% of comparable fast-growers sustained that pace for five years. The market is paying up for the automation franchise specifically, not for the company evenly.
The families of method all sit below the price, which is an unusual and important signal. None of them, asset value, earnings power, peer multiples, or even forward growth, reaches the current level. That pattern says the stock is priced for the breakup to deliver value that no single standard frame can capture: the bet is that splitting Aerospace out and shedding the lower-margin units re-rates the pieces above where the consolidated whole trades.
Solvency is sound but worth watching through the transformation. Interest is covered more than 23 times, and net debt near $24 billion runs about three times operating income, comfortable for a business of this quality. The complication is that the spin raised $20 billion of additional financing, and a smaller post-spin Honeywell carries its leverage against a reduced earnings base. The valuation question is therefore specific: the operating businesses are excellent and the margin trajectory is real, but at a price that exceeds every method, the upside rests on the breakup re-rating the parts, and the downside is a richly valued industrial with soft short-cycle demand if it does not.
Catalysts
The defining catalyst is structural and dated. Honeywell's Aerospace spin-off is on track to complete on June 29, with $20 billion of spin financing raised and investment-grade credit ratings secured, and the company is maintaining Aerospace guidance of high-single-digit organic sales growth for the year. Alongside the spin, Honeywell has agreed to sell its Warehouse and Workflow Solutions business and previously agreed to sell Productivity Solutions and Services, completing a portfolio transformation that reshapes what shareholders own.
The operating results frame the businesses heading into the split. Q1 2026 sales of $9.1 billion grew 2% organically, segment profit rose 6%, segment margin expanded 90 basis points to 23.3%, and adjusted EPS climbed 11% to $2.45, even as reported EPS fell on restructuring and separation items. Management maintained full-year guidance of 3% to 6% organic growth, segment margin of 22.7% to 23.1%, adjusted EPS of $10.35 to $10.65, and free cash flow of $5.3 to $5.6 billion. The key things to watch are the mechanics and market reception of the June 29 spin, whether short-cycle Industrial Automation demand recovers in Europe and China as management expects, and the first standalone results that show how the remaining Honeywell is valued once Aerospace is separate.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Aerospace Technologies (reported)
- RTX (RTX CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: , Collins Aerospace (since July 2024) President, Mission Systems, Collins Aerospace; President, Avionics, Collins Aerospace; President, Interiors, Collins Aerospace 56 Christopher T. Calio Chairman (since April 2025), Chief Executive Officer (since May 2024), and President, RTX Corporation (since March 2023) Chief…
- FY2025 10-K: United Technologies Corporation Long-Term Incentive Plan (referred to above in Exhibit 10. 9 ), incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.18 to the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K (Commission file number 1-812) for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2016. 10.14 United Technologies Corporation LTIP Performance Share…
- GD (GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …while offering customers options to reduce or eliminate their carbon footprints. Gulfstream and Jet Aviation have been at the forefront of the industry by adopting and expanding the availability of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which achieves as much as an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions per gallon over…
- FY2025 10-K: …but did reduce the Aerospace operating margins by 30 basis points in 2025. The duration and extent of the tariffs continue to evolve. The ongoing sanctions on Russia have also restricted access to a segment of the market. Overall, we believe our investments in a new family of Gulfstream aircraft will continue to fuel…
- NOC (NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP /DE/)
- FY2025 10-K: …and $596 million at Aeronautics Systems. These increases were partially offset by $960 million of lower sales at Space Systems, largely due to a $738 million sales reduction associated with wind-down of work on the restricted space and NGI programs, and $425 million of higher intercompany eliminations. See "Segment…
- FY2025 10-K: …is the Multi-role Electronically Scanned Array (MESA) radar which enables 360 degree long range advanced air moving target indicator (AMTI) capabilities for Battle Management, Command and Control, and Maritime Surveillance; • Battlefield Airborne Communications Node (BACN), one of the first airborne gateway systems…
- LMT (LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …objective of procuring 2,456 aircraft for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, and U.S. Navy. We also have commitments from seven international partner countries and 12 FMS customers, who collectively during the year indicated their intent to purchase 72 additional aircraft beyond their existing programs of record.…
- FY2025 10-K: …programs, see "Note 1 - Organization and Significant Accounting Policies" included in our Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. Aeronautics Our Aeronautics business segment is engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, sustainment, support and upgrade of advanced military aircraft,…
Industrial Automation (reported)
- ROK (Rockwell Automation, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …sensing, industrial components, and configured-to-order products. The Software & Control segment includes control and visualization software and hardware, digital twin, simulation and information software, and network and security infrastructure. The Lifecycle Services segment includes digital consulting,…
- FY2025 10-K: …Current Report on Form 8-K dated July 1, 2022, is hereby incorporated by reference. 10-j-2 $500,000,000 364-Day Term Loan Agreement dated as of May 16, 2025, among the Company, the Banks listed on the signature pages thereto, Bank of America, N.A., as Administrative Agent, U.S. Bank National Association, as…
- PH (PARKER-HANNIFIN CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: We offer hundreds of thousands of individual part numbers, and no single product contributed more than one percent to our total net sales for the year ended June 30, 2025. Listed below are some of our principal products. Diversified Industrial Segment . Our Diversified Industrial Segment products consist of a broad…
- FY2025 10-K: …including sales and pricing, resulting from global reactions to U.S. trade policies; • manufacturing activity, air travel trends, currency exchange rates, difficulties entering new markets and economic conditions such as inflation, deflation, interest rates and credit availability; inability to obtain, or meet…
- FLS (FLOWSERVE CORP)
- FY2025 10-K: …power consumption, reduce carbon emissions, improve plant productivity and reliability, and provide operational cost savings. Digitization We are leveraging technology and data to improve our, and our customers', operations. With a goal of digitizing our existing installed base and new original equipment, we focus on…
- FY2025 10-K: …permit real-time system analysis, system warnings and remote indication of asset health. These technologies have been developed in response to the growing demand for reduced maintenance, improved process control efficiency and digital communications at the plant level. We are committed to further enhancing the…
- XYL (Xylem Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …Dewatering, and Assessment Services. Following the reorganization, the Water Infrastructure segment is comprised of two reporting units-Transport and Treatment-and the Water Solutions and Services segment is comprised of two reporting units-Water Solutions and Services excluding Dewatering and Dewatering. As a result…
- FY2025 10-K: …from building solutions, primarily in the commercial end markets, driven by strong price realization and higher demand in the U.S., partially offset by order softness in the emerging markets. The industrial applications grew by $7 million organically, driven by strong price realization and backlog execution in the…
- IEX (IDEX CORP)
- FY2025 10-K: 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000832101 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember iex:MaterialProcessingTechnologiesMember iex:HealthAndScienceTechnologiesMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000832101 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember iex:MaterialProcessingTechnologiesMember iex:HealthAndScienceTechnologiesMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31…
- FY2025 10-K: …mass spectrometry, in-vitro diagnostics/biotech fluidics and fluidic connections markets. IH&S maintains operations in Bristol, Connecticut; Carlsbad, California; Middleboro, Massachusetts; Oak Harbor, Washington; Rochester, New York; Rohnert Park, California; Zweibrücken, Germany and Saitama, Japan. • IDEX Materials…
- EMR (EMERSON ELECTRIC CO.)
- FY2025 10-K: …sustainability and safety. The Discrete Automation segment includes solenoid valves, pneumatic valves, valve position indicators, pneumatic cylinders and actuators, air preparation equipment, pressure and temperature switches, electric linear motion solutions, programmable automation control systems and software,…
- FY2025 10-K: …Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations." INTELLIGENT DEVICES Final Control The Final Control segment is a leading global provider of control valves, isolation valves, shutoff valves, pressure relief valves, pressure safety valves, actuators, and regulators for process and hybrid…
- AME (AMETEK, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …Denmark, Finland, France, Switzerland, Argentina, Austria, Serbia, and Mexico. EIG also shares operating facilities with EMG in China, Serbia, and Mexico. Process and Analytical Instrumentation Markets and Products Process and analytical instrumentation sales represented 70% of EIG's 2025 net sales. These businesses…
- FY2025 10-K: …with EIG in China, Serbia, and Mexico. Automation and Engineered Solutions Markets and Products Automation and Engineered Solution sales represented 70% of EMG's 2025 net sales. These businesses produce precision motion control solutions, brushless motors, blowers and pumps, heat exchangers and other…
- DOV (DOVER Corp)
- FY2025 10-K: …revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025 increased $36.3 million, or 3.2% compared to the prior year, comprised of organic growth of 1.9%, a favorable impact from foreign currency translation of 1.2% and acquisition-related growth of 0.1%. Customer pricing favorably impacted revenue in 2025 by approximately 3.1%.…
- FY2025 10-K: …and measurement period adjustments. SIQ's hardware and software products expand the Company's ability to deliver a comprehensive solution that brings actionable intelligence and remote hardware service to retailers and service companies within the Clean Energy & Fueling segment. In connection with this acquisition,…
Energy and Sustainability Solutions (reported)
- GE (GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY)
- FY2025 10-K: …among global regulators and other stakeholders; these may present risks to our business and financial results and increase our operational and compliance expenditures and those of our customers and suppliers. In addition, we 2025 FORM 10-K 25 face, along with others across the aerospace sector, increasing demand for…
- FY2025 10-K: …and Propulsion & Additive Technologies businesses. DPT was approximately 23% of total GE Aerospace revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, with services representing 51% of total DPT revenue. Defense & Systems - Defense & Systems designs, develops, manufactures and services jet engines and avionics and power…
- MMM (3M COMPANY)
- FY2025 10-K: …to planning long-term investments and strategies; and have other competitive effects. Any of the foregoing could have a material adverse effect on the Company's business, financial condition, and results of operations. * The Company's growth objectives are largely dependent on the timing and market acceptance of its…
- FY2025 10-K: …• Automotive and Aerospace • Commercial Branding and Transportation • Display Materials and Systems • Electronics Materials Solutions • Consumer Safety and Well-Being • Home and Auto Care • Home Improvement • Packaging and Expression Representative revenue-generating activities, products or services • Industrial…
- ITW (ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC)
- FY2025 10-K: …upon completion of installation and acceptance by the customer. Annual service contracts are typically sold separate from equipment and the related revenue is recognized on a straight-line basis over the annual service period. Operating revenue for on-demand service repairs and parts is recorded upon completion and…
- FY2025 10-K: ENT AND ELECTRONICS This segment is a branded and innovative producer of test and measurement and electronic manufacturing and maintenance, repair, and operations, or "MRO" solutions that improve efficiency and quality for customers in diverse end markets. Businesses in this segment produce equipment, consumables, and…
- ROP (ROPER TECHNOLOGIES INC)
- FY2025 10-K: …used in numerous identity access management applications across a variety of vertical markets. Verathon - medical devices that enable airway management, including bronchoscopes and video laryngoscopes, and bladder volume measurement solutions for healthcare providers. 6 Materials and Suppliers We believe most…
- FY2025 10-K: …applications, requiring significant change to product design, documentation, governance processes, and risk management practices to achieve compliance. In the U.S., several states, including Colorado and California, have enacted or are considering AI-specific regulations addressing transparency, bias, and…
Article Insight (Recent News Sentiment)
Sentiment score: 40.00 (MEDIUM confidence) FUD/Hype: FUD_DETECTED (The Blockonomi article highlights revenue misses and lowered guidance, directly linking performance to geopolitical instability, creating a negative sentiment.) Claim alignment: MIXED
These articles present a nuanced picture, with one focusing on a speculative future and the other on immediate operational headwinds.
Honeywell Cramer
- Scope: Discusses Jim Cramer’s positive view on Honeywell, particularly its quantum computing spin-off.
- Data: Cramer believes Honeywell’s Quantinuum spin-off will be the “best quantum play.”
- Verdict: Irrelevant to the core thesis; focuses on a tangential business unit.
Honeywell Blockonomi
- Scope: Reports on Honeywell’s Q1 2026 earnings miss and lowered guidance.
- Data: Q1 revenue was $9.14B versus an expected $9.3B, and Q2 EPS guidance is below consensus.
- Verdict: Challenges the thesis; confirms margin compression and revenue deceleration.
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
Q1 2026 earnings call