HIMS & HERS HEALTH, INC. (HIMS): what the price requires
At today's price, HIMS & HERS HEALTH, INC. (HIMS) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~34.9 years. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/HIMS
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | HIMS |
| Company | HIMS & HERS HEALTH, INC. |
| Current price | $33.65/sh |
| Composition | United States Revenue 94% / Rest of the World Revenue 6% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin today | 0.8% |
| Must persist for | 34.9y |
| Multiple paid | 475x operating income |
Solve inputs: computed at a 11.6% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~3.9 years.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~26.6 years; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: elevated (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| sustained it ~10 years at this level | 14% |
| implied end-window share | 4% |
Valuation X-Ray
Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 18.19x | 2 | expensive |
| Earnings | — | 0 | — |
| Relative | 1.30x | 2 | expensive |
| Growth | 0.68x | 4 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.6%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=8)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $50.18 | 0.67x | yes | FCF base $0.3B, growth 25% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.6%, 7yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $44.03 | 0.76x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 132.1x / 135.1x / 138.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $25.94 | 1.30x | yes | P/S fallback (negative EPS): Sector P/S 2.5x × TTM revenue — excluded from consensus |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $1.95 | 17.26x | yes | Book value floor: BV/sh $1.95, ROE negative |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $1.76 | 19.12x | yes | Book value with convergence: BV/sh $1.95, ROE converges to ke |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $48.83 | 0.69x | yes | Rev $2.4B, growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.6x / 3.2x / 3.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $0.00 | — | no | Negative/zero EPS — earnings-based value floored at $0 |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | $51.52 | 0.65x | yes | Margin ramp: -1% → 12% over 7yr, rev growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered) |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Graham Number | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $0.01 | 3365.00x | yes | EBITDA $0.06B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x (excluded from median) |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.01 | 3365.00x | yes | FCF $60.4M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity (excluded from median) |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $25.94 | 1.30x | yes | Revenue $2.37B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $223.2m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 15.61x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 12.33x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 3.0% |
| Burning cash | no |
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
- Hims & Hers is a direct-to-consumer telehealth platform with nearly 2.6 million subscribers, and it became Novo Nordisk's official distribution partner for branded Wegovy and Ozempic after the FDA restricted compounded weight-loss drugs.
- The defining risk is the price: at a triple-digit multiple of a barely-positive operating base, the stock embeds decades of high growth that only about one in seven comparable fast-growers has sustained.
- Watch revenue growth, which decelerated to 4% in Q1 2026 as the GLP-1 model shifted, against management's reaffirmed 2030 target of at least $6.5 billion in revenue.
Bull Case
Valuing a company like Hims & Hers requires the growth-stage lens, not the trailing-multiple one, because the entire thesis is about where the business is going rather than what it earns today. This is a direct-to-consumer healthcare platform that has built a subscription relationship with nearly 2.6 million people, and the company describes its growth as driven by "increased traffic to our platform (through our websites and mobile applications)" converting into recurring subscribers. The model's appeal is that once a customer is on the platform for one condition, the company can expand into adjacent offerings, and Hims attributes its revenue growth in part to "newer offerings" broadening the product set. A platform that acquires a customer once and sells them multiple recurring health services is the SaaS-like economics underneath a healthcare brand.
The weight-loss opportunity reset the ceiling. After the FDA restricted compounded semaglutide in March 2026, Hims signed a partnership to become the official distribution partner for Novo Nordisk's branded Wegovy and Ozempic, putting the leading GLP-1 drugs onto its platform. That converts a regulatory threat into a durable supply relationship with the category's dominant manufacturer, giving Hims a legitimate, branded path into the largest growth market in consumer health.
The forward targets quantify the ambition. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $2.8 billion to $3.0 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $275 million to $350 million, and reaffirmed 2030 targets of at least $6.5 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA. The balance sheet supports the runway, with roughly $750 million of liquid assets. If Hims hits even part of that trajectory, the platform reaches a scale and profitability the current numbers do not show, which is exactly the durable compounding the static valuation frames cannot price.
Bear Case
The moat that drove Hims & Hers to its current scale is being chipped away by the very regulator that briefly handed it an advantage. For a stretch, Hims sold compounded semaglutide, a lower-cost version of the blockbuster weight-loss drugs available only because of a supply shortage, and that product fueled explosive revenue. Then the FDA acted: the company now operates under rules that, in its own words, limit its "current use of 503B outsourcing facilities and may constrain our ability to meet customer demand, which could adversely affect our results of operations." The compounded-drug edge is gone, and the replacement, distributing Novo Nordisk's branded products, is a fundamentally lower-margin business: Hims is now a reseller of someone else's drug rather than the low-cost provider of its own version. The advantage eroded the moment the shortage ended.
The deceleration is already visible in the numbers. Revenue grew just 4% year over year to $608 million in the first quarter of 2026, a dramatic slowdown for a company priced as a hypergrowth platform, and it missed the consensus of about $616 million. Earnings per share came in at negative $0.40 against an expected breakeven, and the stock dropped on the print. A company whose growth rate collapses from triple digits to single digits in the same year its product mix is forced to shift is showing how dependent the story was on a regulatory window that has closed.
The valuation has almost no tolerance for that. The price works out to a triple-digit multiple of a barely-positive operating base, which inverts into an assumption of high growth sustained for decades. Only the growth-oriented method reaches the price; the asset-value method reads the stock at many times its book value, calling it richly valued, and there is no profitable earnings power to anchor on. The competitive landscape compounds the risk: telehealth and DTC pharmacy have low barriers to entry, the Novo relationship is not exclusive in any durable sense, and a customer base acquired through marketing can churn as easily as it joined. A platform priced for decades of compounding, with a freshly eroded moat and a sharply decelerating top line, is a demanding bet at this multiple.
Valuation
Hims & Hers runs near breakeven at the operating line, so the price cannot be read off earnings; at about $35 (as of June 27, 2026) it works out to a triple-digit multiple of a barely-positive operating base, which inverts into an assumption of high growth sustained for roughly three decades. Only about one in seven comparable fast-growers has held that kind of pace for even ten years, which is why the priced-in assumption reads as elevated. The price is a forward bet on the platform reaching scale, not a value supported by current results.
The methods split exactly as they do for any pre-profit growth company. Only the growth-oriented cash-flow methods reach the price; the single asset-value reading lands far below it, valuing the company at a small multiple of its book equity, and there is no profitable earnings-power method to anchor on because operating income is negative. A margin-trajectory model that assumes the operating margin ramps from roughly negative 1% toward the low teens over seven years still lands below the current price, which is the clearest read on how much the market is paying for the long-term story. The honest framing is that the price is a pure growth-and-margin bet, and the spread between the optimistic and conservative methods is the size of that bet.
The balance sheet is the reassuring part. Hims holds roughly $750 million of liquid assets, and while it carries gross debt from a convertible note, the liquidity comfortably exceeds the near-term needs, so the company is not at financial risk while it scales. Standard leverage and coverage math does not apply cleanly to a company without steady operating profit. What a buyer underwrites at this price is the durability of the platform's growth and its path to real profitability, with the cash cushion ensuring Hims can fund the journey but offering no support for the multiple itself. The recent revenue deceleration and the forced shift in the weight-loss model are the reasons that journey is now harder to underwrite than the price assumes.
Catalysts
Hims & Hers reported a difficult first quarter of 2026 that reset expectations. Revenue grew just 4% year over year to about $608 million, missing the roughly $616 million consensus, and subscribers rose 9% to nearly 2.6 million. Earnings per share came in at negative $0.40 against a forecast near breakeven, and the stock fell on the report. The cause behind the sharp deceleration was the forced transition in the weight-loss business away from compounded medication.
The pivotal development was regulatory. Following FDA warning letters in March 2026 that restricted compounded semaglutide, Hims signed a partnership with Novo Nordisk to become the official distribution partner for branded Wegovy and Ozempic on its platform. That shift trades the high-margin compounded product for a legitimate, branded supply relationship at lower margins, reshaping the economics of the largest part of the growth story.
Despite the quarter, management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $2.8 billion to $3.0 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $275 million to $350 million, and reaffirmed 2030 targets of at least $6.5 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA. The forward catalysts to watch are whether revenue growth reaccelerates as the branded GLP-1 offering ramps, the trajectory of subscriber additions and retention, and the margin profile of the new Novo Nordisk distribution model.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Hims & Hers (consolidated) (reported)
- LFST (LifeStance Health Group, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- PRVA (Privia Health Group, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
HIMS Q1 2026 results, May 2026 · HIMS FY2025 10-K