GLOBAL PAYMENTS INC. (GPN): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $91.82, GLOBAL PAYMENTS INC. (GPN) is priced for +14.6% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.
Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/GPN
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | GPN |
| Company | GLOBAL PAYMENTS INC. |
| Current price | $91.82/sh |
| Composition | Point-of-Sale and Software Solutions 17% / Integrated and Embedded Solutions 44% / Core Payments Solutions 39% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (value-band context) | 6.5% |
| Operating margin today | 15.4% |
| Margin compression (value-band) | -8.9pp |
| Implied growth | 14.6% |
| Multiple paid | 30x operating income |
The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 7.4% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.
How unusual the bet is: elevated (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.05σ |
| cohort percentile (of 212 peers) | 87 |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by asset-based value, while earnings-power/relative-multiple land below the price. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.11x | 2 | expensive |
| Earnings | 4.16x | 1 | expensive |
| Relative | 2.03x | 3 | expensive |
| Growth | 1.45x | 3 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Asset Families that call it expensive: Earnings, Relative
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 5.3%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=9)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $108.48 | 0.85x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 12.4x / 14.4x / 16.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $45.31 | 2.03x | yes | P/S fallback (negative EPS): Sector P/S 1.5x × TTM revenue — excluded from consensus |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $86.98 | 1.06x | yes | Book value floor: BV/sh $86.98, ROE negative |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $78.28 | 1.17x | yes | Book value with convergence: BV/sh $86.98, ROE converges to ke |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $63.16 | 1.45x | yes | Rev $8.3B, growth 15% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.5x / 3.0x / 3.6x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $0.00 | — | no | Negative/zero EPS — earnings-based value floored at $0 |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | $46.52 | 1.97x | yes | Margin ramp: -9% → 12% over 7yr, rev growth 15% (input: historical growth; tapered) |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $22.06 | 4.16x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $1.70B × (1−21%) / WACC 5.3% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Graham Number | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $87.39 | 1.05x | yes | EBITDA $2.91B × sector EV/EBITDA 14.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.01 | 9182.00x | yes | FCF $1061.1M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity (excluded from median) |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.01 | 9182.00x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.91B (FCF $1.06B − SBC $0.15B) capitalized at Kₑ (excluded from median) |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $45.31 | 2.03x | yes | Revenue $8.26B × sector P/S 1.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchant Solutions | operating | enterprise | $7.7b | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $16.9b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 15.61x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 12.33x |
| Interest coverage | 1.9x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -0.8% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
- The story is the Worldpay acquisition and the Issuer Solutions divestiture, which transformed the company into a focused merchant-solutions business. Adjusted EPS of $2.96 beat the $2.86 estimate, but GAAP swung to a $1.8 billion net loss, mostly from a $1.59 billion loss on the discontinued Issuer Solutions sale.
- The risk is balance-sheet and competitive. The company carries about $22.7 billion of gross debt at roughly 3x net leverage, and it competes in merchant acquiring against Adyen, Stripe, Fiserv, and FIS.
Bull Case
Lead with the gap between price and the methods, because it defines the opportunity. At about $66.89 (June 27, 2026) Global Payments trades below nearly every valuation lens that anchors to its cash flow or peers. The exit-multiple DCF lands near $95.60, the EV/EBITDA method near $100.73, the simple and two-stage excess-return methods near $87 and $78, and the margin-trajectory method near $83.24. The relative method lands lower near $48.62, so the methods are not unanimous, but the weight of them says the market is pricing this payments processor below its fundamental value. The reason is integration uncertainty, and the bull case is that the uncertainty resolves favorably.
The transformation underway is the source of the upside. The Worldpay acquisition lifted GAAP revenue 63% to $2.97 billion in the first quarter, and the simultaneous sale of the Issuer Solutions business refocused Global Payments on merchant solutions, where it now has greater scale. The reported GAAP net loss of $1.8 billion looks alarming, but $1.59 billion of it was a one-time loss from the discontinued Issuer Solutions operations, not an operating deterioration; on the basis that matters, adjusted EPS of $2.96 beat the $2.86 consensus. Management described the Worldpay integration as "very encouraging" with "excellent" alignment, and the FY2025 10-K candidly lays out the integration risks the company is managing, including "the inability to successfully combine the business of Worldpay in a manner that permits us to achieve, on a timely basis, or at all, the enhanced revenue opportunities and cost savings" (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001123360-26-000008). The bull bet is that those synergies land.
The guidance and capital returns back the thesis. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $13.80 to $14.00, implying 13% to 15% constant-currency growth, with normalized adjusted operating margin expected to expand about 150 basis points as Worldpay synergies build into the second half. The company plans $200 million of revenue synergies over the initial three-year period. On the capital-return side, it declared a $0.25 dividend, initiated a $500 million accelerated repurchase, and expects to return over $2 billion to shareholders in 2026. At a forward earnings multiple around 10x against double-digit guided growth, a successful integration would re-rate the stock toward the methods that already sit well above the current price.
Bear Case
The bear case starts with competitive disruption, and the names matter. In merchant acquiring, the part of payments where Global Payments has placed its biggest bet through Worldpay, the most dangerous competitors are Adyen and Stripe, cloud-native processors that won share by building modern, developer-friendly platforms while legacy acquirers ran on older technology. Above them sit Visa and Mastercard at the network level, and alongside them sit Fiserv and FIS, with Fiserv now the largest non-bank merchant acquirer by transaction volume. Global Payments is fighting a two-front war: it must out-execute the nimble fintechs on technology and out-scale them on distribution, while not losing ground to the larger legacy players. The Worldpay deal was, in part, an admission that it needed more scale to compete, and bolting two large legacy organizations together is exactly the kind of integration that gives faster-moving rivals room to take share.
The balance sheet magnifies the competitive risk. The company carries about $22.7 billion of gross debt at roughly 3x net leverage, and while adjusted interest coverage near 5x is manageable, the reported coverage on the strip is thin and the debt load leaves little room for error. Heavy leverage during a major integration means the company has limited flexibility for further investment, additional M&A, or aggressive buybacks if cash flow misses the targets. The integration itself carries execution risk that the company's own filing details, and legacy technology debt and an earnings-quality overhang are precisely what caused Morgan Stanley to resume coverage at Equal Weight with a $65 target and TD Cowen to cut its target to $74.
The valuation discount is the market's price for that uncertainty, not a free lunch. The relative method lands at $48.62, well below the price, a reminder that on a straight peer-multiple basis the stock is not obviously cheap, and the high readings from the EV/EBITDA and DCF methods depend on the synergies and margin expansion actually materializing. The free-cash-flow methods are distorted by deal costs and provide no clean read. If the Worldpay integration disappoints, if the fintech challengers keep taking merchant share, or if leverage forces a slower pace of investment, the adjusted earnings that justify the higher methods come under pressure, and a stock that looks cheap on optimistic assumptions becomes fairly valued or expensive on realistic ones. The split between a Buy consensus near $95 and recent downgrades to $65 to $74 captures exactly that unresolved debate.
Valuation
Global Payments is a value-supported name on most methods, with the important caveat that the supportive methods depend on the Worldpay integration delivering. The exit-multiple DCF lands near $95.60, the EV/EBITDA method near $100.73, the simple and two-stage excess-return methods near $87 and $78, and the margin-trajectory method near $83.24, all above the $66.89 price. The relative and price-to-sales methods land lower near $48.62, and the free-cash-flow methods print near zero because deal and integration costs distort current free cash flow.
The inverted view frames the embedded bet modestly. The price is characterized as supported by asset-based and growth-DCF value, with earnings-power saying expensive, and the implied near-term operating growth is only about 5.5%, well below the 13% to 15% adjusted EPS growth management guides to. In plain terms, the market is pricing in a fraction of the growth the company says it will deliver, which is the gap the bull case wants to close and the gap the bear case says reflects integration and competitive risk.
The honest synthesis is that this is a bet on execution priced at a discount. The methods that anchor to scale and margins sit well above the price, and a clean Worldpay integration with the guided synergies and margin expansion would pull the stock toward them. But the methods that anchor to peer multiples sit below the price, the balance sheet carries about $22.7 billion of debt at roughly 3x leverage, and the competitive set, Adyen, Stripe, Fiserv, and FIS, is formidable. The value depends on management converting a large, complex acquisition into the promised synergies faster than the fintech challengers erode merchant share, with leverage leaving little margin for a misstep.
Catalysts
The dominant catalyst is the Worldpay integration and synergy realization, which management called very encouraging and targets at $200 million of revenue synergies over three years, with normalized adjusted operating margin expected to expand about 150 basis points weighted to the second half of 2026; each quarter is a test of whether the synergies are landing. The full-year guidance is the key earnings benchmark, with management reaffirming adjusted EPS of $13.80 to $14.00, or 13% to 15% constant-currency growth, after a first-quarter adjusted beat of $2.96 versus $2.86. Capital returns are a standing catalyst, with a $0.25 dividend, a $500 million accelerated repurchase, and over $2 billion expected to be returned in 2026, though the roughly $22.7 billion debt load constrains the pace if cash flow slips. Deleveraging is itself a re-rating catalyst, since analysts have flagged that cleaner financials and lower leverage are needed for the multiple to recover. The competitive dynamic is the dominant risk catalyst, with Adyen and Stripe pressing in merchant acquiring and Fiserv and FIS competing on scale. Sentiment is split and recently softer, with a Buy consensus near $95 but a Morgan Stanley resumption at Equal Weight with a $65 target on June 22 and a TD Cowen target cut to $74 on June 11, so proof that the integration is on track is what would resolve the debate.
Sources: StockTitan Q1, Motley Fool transcript, Investing.com Morgan Stanley, MarketBeat forecast
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Merchant Solutions (reported)
- FISV (FISERV INC)
- FY2025 10-K: …help manage cash flow and everyday business operations. When combined with the ever-increasing ways a consumer can pay for goods and services, merchants have sought modern end-to-end solutions throughout their growth lifecycle to streamline the complexity. Merchants are moving beyond traditional payment acceptance to…
- FY2025 10-K: …with merchants. We provide these distribution partners with integrated merchant technology solutions to help them grow their businesses and manage their portfolios. Partner technology tools enable real-time access to portfolio activity and pricing management. These strategic alliances combine our commerce-enabling…
- FIS (Fidelity National Information Services, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …dividends or for other corporate purposes. 3 Table of Contents Segment Information FIS reports its financial performance based on the following segments: Banking Solutions ("Banking"), Capital Market Solutions ("Capital Markets") and Corporate and Other. The Worldpay Merchant Solutions business included the former…
- FY2025 10-K: …the trade receivables credit risk. The Company seeks to minimize credit risk for derivatives by selecting counterparties with investment grade credit ratings. The Company also manages credit risk exposure through monitoring procedures. (22) Segment Information The Company reports its financial performance based on…
- FOUR (SHIFT4 PAYMENTS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …conversion, and payments solutions to many of the world's largest retail brands. We power billions of transactions annually for hundreds of thousands of businesses in virtually every industry. We achieved our leadership position through decades of solving business and operational challenges facing our customers'…
- FY2025 10-K: …with those that have strong networks, local expertise, high-quality merchant portfolios, and trusted relationships. Our network of VARs provide a consistent and extensive source of new merchant acquisition, with no single VAR accounting for more than 2% of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025. Our…
- CPAY (Corpay, Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: …solutions (e.g., hotel and extended stay bookings). This results in our customers saving time and ultimately spending less. Corpay has been a member of the S&P 500 since 2018 and trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker CPAY. We estimate that businesses spend approximately $145 trillion annually in…
- FY2025 10-K: …management of hotels and housing, both short and longer-term, while also providing traveler and end customer support. The Company also provides other payments solutions, including Gift and Payroll Cards. The Company's solutions provide customers with control capabilities including customizable user-level controls,…
- WEX (WEX Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …broad acceptance at EV charging locations. Our differentiated network offers enhanced data capture, custom controls, and tailored economics between fleets and merchants, creating customer value. Beyond fuel payments, our portfolio includes SaaS solutions for field service management, telematics, reporting and…
- FY2025 10-K: …providers in our network, test all network technology, and provide training on our processes. • Analytics solutions : We provide customers with access to analytics platforms and custom reporting tools targeted toward identifying cost savings opportunities and managing their fleet. • Ancillary services and offerings :…
- PYPL (PayPal Holdings, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …PayPal and Venmo branded checkout experiences allow customers to complete purchases in just a few steps without having to enter payment and address information. These seamless experiences reduce cart abandonment and drive higher conversion rates for merchants. Our BNPL solutions are embedded into our branded checkout…
- FY2025 10-K: …cards"), electronic bank transfers, credit, and installment methods), payment networks that facilitate payments for payment cards or proprietary retail networks, payment card processors, and "card on file" services. We also face competition from providers offering a variety of payment products and services ranging…
- V (VISA INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …acquirers. CMS Providers: We compete with alternative solutions to our CMS (e.g., Visa Direct) such as ACH, RTP and wires. We compete with other global and local card networks for commercial card portfolios. Additionally, we may face competition from industry players who are experimenting with B2B blockchain…
- FY2025 10-K: …designed to enhance Visa transactions for sellers and acquirers. For example, our account verification service checks for invalid or compromised payment credentials before a purchase to help prevent fraud. In addition, our Account Updater provides updated account information for sellers to help strengthen customer…
- MA (Mastercard Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: …strategy, services, data and technology to deliver loyalty solutions designed to drive consumer engagement with measurable results for our customers. We enable a loyalty ecosystem (deeply integrated within our global payments network) that benefits merchants, financial institutions and consumers via personalized…
- FY2025 10-K: …performance standards to support ecosystem optimization and growth and use proactive monitoring designed to both ensure participant adherence to operating standards and protect the integrity of the ecosystem • Issue Resolution. We operate a framework to address disputes between our network participants Our Payment…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.