Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF): what the price requires
At today's price, Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF) is priced for +19.5% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/GOLF
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | GOLF |
| Company | Acushnet Holdings Corp. |
| Current price | $110.00/sh |
| Composition | Titleist Golf Equipment 62% / FootJoy Golf Wear 22% / Golf Gear 10% / Other 6% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Implied growth | 19.5% |
| Multiple paid | 26x operating income |
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.6% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~7.8pp.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | +1.28σ |
| cohort percentile (of 212 peers) | 72 |
| sustained it ~5 years at this level | 38% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 3.58x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 3.65x | 2 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.69x | 3 | expensive |
| Growth | 1.03x | 3 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.4%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=13)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $22.06 | 4.99x | yes | FCF base $0.1B, growth 6% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.4%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $114.97 | 0.96x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 22.4x / 24.4x / 26.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $72.55 | 1.52x | yes | P/E 25.61x (blended: static sector reference 20x + trailing (TTM) 39x), scenarios: 21.5x / 25.6x / 29.7x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 16.41x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $30.73 | 3.58x | yes | BV/sh $13.75, ROE (TTM) 20.7%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $45.53 | 2.42x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $106.39 | 1.03x | yes | Rev $2.6B, growth 6% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.1x / 2.5x / 2.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Growth-Adjusted P/E | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $29.56 | 3.72x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.29B × (1−23%) / WACC 8.4% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $43.62 | 2.52x | yes | BV $13.75 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 20.7% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $29.69 | 3.70x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $2.85 × BVPS $13.75) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $49.70 | 2.21x | yes | EBITDA $0.32B × sector EV/EBITDA 13.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.01 | 11000.00x | yes | FCF $88.7M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity (excluded from median) |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.01 | 11000.00x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.06B (FCF $0.09B − SBC $0.03B) capitalized at Kₑ (excluded from median) |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $2.39 | 46.03x | yes | EPS $2.85 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $7.63 | 14.42x | yes | BV $13.75 × (ROIC 4.7% / WACC 8.4%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $65.20 | 1.69x | yes | Revenue $2.61B × sector P/S 1.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $30.81 | 3.57x | yes | EPS $2.85 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $1.2b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 4.99x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 3.85x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -5.1% |
| Burning cash | no |
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
- At about $107.79 only the growth-oriented methods reach the price; the asset, earnings-power, and peer-multiple methods all land lower, between roughly $30 and $72. The premium reflects a bet on the durability of the Titleist and FootJoy franchises that the static frames cannot price.
- The first quarter showed the franchise working: net sales rose 7.1% to $753.0 million, led by Titleist golf equipment up 8.9% and golf gear up 10.8%, while adjusted EBITDA grew 4.1% to $144.6 million at a 19.2% margin.
- Tariffs are the swing variable. They cost about $17 million year over year in the quarter and management projects roughly $70 million of annualized impact in 2026, with pricing action described as the last lever it wants to pull.
Bull Case
Acushnet is a mature business, and the right way to read it is to ask what mature means here: not slow decline, but a durable, share-leading position in a sport whose participation is at record highs. The methods that assume mean reversion, the asset and earnings-power frames, mark the stock cheap because they cannot price brand durability. The growth-DCF families are the only ones that reach the current price, and that is the tell: the market is paying for the persistence of a moat, not for a hockey-stick reacceleration. The company's own filing explains the source of that durability. Dedicated golfers are described as "avid and skill-biased, prioritize performance and commit the time, effort and money to improve their game," and the filing notes they are "the most consistent purchasers of golf products" and "the most likely to invest in premium performance" gear (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001672013-26-000057). That is a customer base that buys through cycles and pays up for the leading ball and the leading wedge.
The demand backdrop is the strongest it has been in a generation. U.S. on-course participation exceeded 29 million golfers in 2025 with more than 80 million rounds logged, a record set for the fourth time in five years, and total participation surpassed 48 million, up roughly 50% over the past decade. Acushnet sells the premium products into that expanding pool, and the first quarter showed it capturing the growth: net sales rose 7.1% to $753.0 million, with Titleist golf equipment up 8.9% and golf gear up 10.8%. New-product cadence is healthy, with the Vokey SM11 wedges and second-year GT drivers selling well, and management pulled the Titleist GTS metals launch forward to June to extend the selling window.
The financial profile supports the premium. Adjusted EBITDA grew 4.1% to $144.6 million at a 19.2% margin, and management reaffirmed full-year guidance of $2,625 million to $2,675 million in net sales and $415 million to $435 million in adjusted EBITDA. The company is shrinking its share count at about 5% a year through buybacks, which compounds per-share value on top of mid-single-digit top-line growth. The inverted read frames the embedded assumption as within range: the price asks for durable mid-teens-and-better operating compounding, consistent with the company's own track record, rather than something heroic. For a category leader with a loyal, growing customer base, that is a bet on continuity, not on a miracle.
Bear Case
The external variable with the most leverage on Acushnet right now is trade policy, and the current price does not fully reflect that exposure. Golf equipment is sourced through a global supply chain, and tariffs hit the cost base directly. In the first quarter tariffs added about $17 million of cost year over year, and management projects roughly $70 million of annualized impact in 2026, with gross margin already down on a 220-basis-point tariff drag. The company has signaled that raising prices is the "last lever" it wants to pull, which protects volume but means the tariff cost lands on margins. A premium-priced product can absorb some inflation, but $70 million against an EBITDA guide in the low $400-millions is a material headwind that is largely outside management's control and whose duration management itself calls hard to quantify.
The second macro exposure is that golf is discretionary, and the participation boom is the thing the bull case leans on hardest. Rounds played and participation are at record highs after a multi-year surge, which raises the question of whether the demand is at a cyclical peak rather than a permanent step-up. If the post-pandemic enthusiasm fades or a consumer slowdown trims discretionary spending on premium equipment and apparel, the volume tailwind reverses at exactly the moment tariffs are pressuring margins. The early signs of softness are already visible inside the quarter: FootJoy net sales declined about 1%, driven by lower footwear volumes, so not every part of the franchise is participating in the growth.
The valuation leaves little room for either risk to materialize. Analyst sentiment reflects the stretch: the consensus is neutral with a median target near $96 to $98, below the current price, and no analysts in the surveyed group carry a Buy rating. A durable franchise justifies a premium, but the size of this premium assumes the participation boom holds and tariffs prove temporary, and if either assumption breaks, the methods that anchor to current economics sit a long way down.
Valuation
The X-ray for Acushnet has a clean shape: the static frames mark it expensive and only the growth frames reach the price. The asset-based excess-return and residual-income methods land between about $31 and $46, the earnings-power and earnings-yield methods near $30, and the peer-multiple methods between roughly $50 and $72. The growth-DCF family is the exception, with an exit-multiple DCF at about $112.84 and a discounted-future-market-cap method at about $104.25, both essentially on top of the $107.79 price (June 27, 2026). When only the growth frames reach the price, the market is paying for durability the static methods structurally cannot capture.
The inverted view names the bet without overstating it. The price embeds operating compounding of roughly mid-teens or better sustained over time, which the framework characterizes as within range given the company's own history, supported by the growth-DCF rather than by a stretch beyond all the methods. Current operating margin is about 11.7% against an implied figure near 11.9%, so the bet is not primarily a margin-expansion story; it is a durability story, that Titleist and FootJoy keep their leading positions and keep selling premium products to a loyal customer base. That is exactly the kind of moat premium the asset and earnings frames cannot price.
The honest synthesis is that this is a quality franchise trading at a price that requires the moat to hold. The bull case is that record participation and a discerning, repeat-buying customer base make the durability real, in which case the growth methods are the right lens and the premium is earned. The bear case is that the price also requires tariffs to fade and the participation boom to persist, and if either fails, the stock has a long way to fall back toward the earnings-power and peer methods. The valuation is a referendum on durability, with a real franchise underneath and a demanding price on top.
Catalysts
The dominant near-term catalyst is tariffs and how Acushnet manages them: the company faces roughly $70 million of projected annualized impact in 2026 after about $17 million of incremental cost in the first quarter, and management has framed pricing action as the last lever, so any change in trade policy or any decision to raise prices would move both margins and volume. New-product cadence is the demand engine, with the Vokey SM11 wedges and second-year GT drivers performing well and the Titleist GTS metals launch pulled forward to June to extend the selling window; the reception to GTS is a concrete catalyst for the back half. Guidance trajectory is the key earnings test, with management reaffirming full-year net sales of $2,625 million to $2,675 million and adjusted EBITDA of $415 million to $435 million. The golf participation trend is a macro catalyst worth watching, since U.S. participation is approaching 50 million and rounds played are at records, but a softening would remove the volume tailwind. FootJoy is a segment-level swing factor after net sales declined about 1% on lower footwear volumes. Sentiment is cautious, with a neutral consensus and a median target near $96 to $98 that sits below the current price, so the stock would need a clean beat that proves the tariff impact is contained to shift the Street's view.
Sources: StockTitan Q1, Investing.com Q1 slides, SGB Media, National Golf Foundation
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Titleist Golf Equipment / Golf Gear (reported)
- CALY (Callaway Golf Company)
- FY2025 10-K: …golf clubs directly to consumers through our website. The certified pre-owned golf clubs are generally acquired through our Trade In! Trade Up! program, which gives golfers the opportunity to trade in used Callaway brand golf clubs and certain competitor golf clubs at authorized retailers or through our website in…
- FY2025 10-K: …business in the United States and a leading market share position in certain other regions outside of the United States. Advertising & Marketing Our marketing campaigns for our golf equipment products are aimed to increase consumer product awareness and support our overall growth strategy. Advertising for our golf…
- AS (Amer Sports, Inc.)
- FY2025 20-F: NCAA March Madness, use Wilson products for competitions. Wilson has partnered with the NFL for more than 80 years, the NCAA for more than 20 years, and the US Open for more than 45 years. These athletes and leagues add to the credibility and reputation of Wilson's superior products, make it one of the world's most…
- FY2025 20-F: …of high-performance sports equipment, apparel, footwear and accessories. The Wilson Sporting Goods portfolio is made up of the iconic Wilson brand, as well as Louisville Slugger, DeMarini, EvoShield and ATEC. Collectively, these brands bring more than three centuries of innovation, history and heritage to a variety…
- YETI (YETI Holdings, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Japan, among others. We carefully evaluate and select retail partners that have an image and approach that are consistent with our premium brand and pricing. Our national and regional specialty retailers in the United States include…
- FY2025 10-K: …with the launch of the new Rambler Insulated Bowls in six sizes and expanded our cookware offerings with the launch of a new size of the Cast Iron Skillet. In our Coolers & Equipment category, we expanded our hard cooler offerings with the redesigned Roadie 24, and expanded our outdoor living offerings with the…
- HAS (HASBRO, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …primarily by the Consumer Products segment. The Company leases or owns property in 30 countries. The primary office locations in the Consumer Products segment outside of the United States are in Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Mexico, Spain, the People's Republic of China, and the United Kingdom. In addition, the…
- FY2025 10-K: …the highest margin, highest growth opportunities in categories where we see significant share and/or underlying market growth. • Optimize Brands : Brands representing opportunities to maintain or grow share while improving operating profit returns. • Reinvent Brands : Brands representing opportunities to reinvent or…
- MAT (MATTEL INC /DE/)
- FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:CostOfSalesMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000063276 us-gaap:ForeignExchangeForwardMember us-gaap:DesignatedAsHedgingInstrumentMember us-gaap:CostOfSalesMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0000063276 us-gaap:ForeignExchangeForwardMember us-gaap:DesignatedAsHedgingInstrumentMember us-gaap:CostOfSalesMember 2023-01-01…
- FY2025 10-K: 83 Litigation Litigation Related to Yellowstone do Brasil Ltda. In April 1999, Yellowstone do Brasil Ltda. (formerly known as Trebbor Informática Ltda.) ("Yellowstone") filed a lawsuit against Mattel do Brasil before the 15th Civil Court of Curitiba, State of Parana, requesting the annulment of its security bonds and…
- PTON (Peloton Interactive, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …impairment charges. During fiscal 2023, 2024 and 2025, management identified various qualitative factors that collectively indicated that the Company had impairment triggering events, including (i) realignment of cost structure in connection with the restructuring initiatives, (ii) softening demand and (iii)…
- FY2025 10-K: …workout experience). It has an HD touchscreen. • Peloton Bike+: The Peloton Bike+ includes all Bike features and unlocks an even more dynamic workout experience with a rotating HD touchscreen to improve the off-bike workout experience, as well as automatic resistance control with the Bike+ electronic braking system,…
FootJoy Golf Wear (reported)
- CROX (CROCS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …the image of our brands, undermine consumer confidence in us, and reduce long-term demand for our products, even if the regulatory or legal action is unfounded or not material to our operations. Negative claims or publicity involving us, our products, or any of our key employees, endorsers, or business partners could…
- FY2025 10-K: …provides a direct measure of our sales volume and can offer valuable insights into its market performance and growth potential. Average Footwear Selling Price Average footwear selling price is defined as footwear and footwear accessories revenues divided by footwear units. Management uses this metric and believes it…
- DECK (DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP)
- FY2025 10-K: …into new categories. • Thoughtful expansion of our apparel and accessories businesses. HOKA Brand . The HOKA brand is an authentic premium line of year-round performance footwear, which offers enhanced cushioning and inherent stability with minimal weight. Originally designed for ultra-runners, the brand now appeals…
- FY2025 10-K: …operating segments present the former Sanuk brand within the Other brands reportable operating segment through the Sanuk Brand Sale Date for the year ended March 31, 2025, and full financial results for the years ended March 31, 2024, and 2023. Refer to Note 12, "Reportable Operating Segments," of our consolidated…
- SHOO (STEVEN MADDEN, LTD.)
- FY2025 10-K: …under the Steve Madden brand. The Steve Madden brand is a leader in the fashion footwear industry with permission from the customer to sell products across most footwear categories including dress shoes, boots, booties, fashion sneakers, and casuals. While the brand appeals to a wide demographic, the core target…
- FY2025 10-K: …retailers, national chains, specialty retailers, independent stores, and clubs throughout the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, Mexico, and through our joint ventures and international distributor network. • Wholesale Accessories/Apparel. This segment designs, sources, and markets our brands and…
- WWW (WOLVERINE WORLD WIDE, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …See Note 16 to the Company's Consolidated Financial Statements for further discussion of environmental remediation costs. INTEREST, OTHER AND TAXES Net interest expense was $32.8 million in 2025 compared to $42.7 million in 2024. Interest expense decreased in the current year due to lower average principal balances…
- FY2025 10-K: …sourcing, marketing, licensing and distributing branded footwear, apparel and accessories. Revenue for the reportable segments includes revenue from the sale of branded footwear, apparel and accessories to third-party customers; revenue from third-party distributors, licensees and joint ventures; and revenue from the…
- COLM (COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR COMPANY)
- FY2025 10-K: …("EMEA"), and Canada. The following tables disaggregate the Company's reportable segment Net sales by product category and channel, which the Company believes provides a meaningful depiction of how the nature, timing and uncertainty of Net sales are affected by economic factors: Year Ended December 31, 2025 (in…
- FY2025 10-K: …for our products, identify our company and differentiate our products from competitors' products. We own many trademarks, including Columbia Sportswear Company®, Columbia®, SOREL®, Mountain Hardwear®, prAna®, the Columbia diamond shaped logo, the Mountain Hardwear nut logo, the SOREL polar bear logo, and the prAna…
- UAA (UNDER ARMOUR, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: 27 Table of Contents and worn by athletes at all levels, from youth to professional, on playing fields around the globe and by consumers with active lifestyles. We remain focused on driving premium brand-right growth and delivering improved profitability. We plan to continue to grow our business over the long term…
- FY2025 10-K: …and prevent slippage; and providing protection against rain while maintaining breathability. These types of innovations and technologies, embedded in many of our apparel products, include: COLDGEAR®, COLDGEAR INFRARED®, HEATGEAR®, UA Iso-Chill™, UA RUSH™, UA SMARTFORM™ and UA STORM™. Footwear Footwear includes…
- NKE (NIKE, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …laws by us, our employees, agents, suppliers and other partners. Refer to Item 1A. Risk Factors for additional information on risks relating to our international operations. COMPETITION The athletic footwear, apparel and equipment industry is highly competitive on a worldwide basis. We compete internationally with a…
- FY2025 10-K: Member 2023-06-01 2024-05-31 0000320187 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember nke:FootwearMember nke:NIKEBrandMember nke:NorthAmericaSegmentMember 2022-06-01 2023-05-31 0000320187 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember nke:FootwearMember nke:NIKEBrandMember nke:EuropeMiddleEastAndAfricaSegmentMember 2022-06-01 2023-05-31…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.