Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI): what the price requires
The current priced-in claim for Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI) is temporarily suppressed because the live engine record is unavailable. The dated report remains a snapshot, not a current market read.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/GLPI
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | GLPI |
| Company | Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. |
| Current price | $43.83/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | reit |
| Price-to-FFO | 11.2x |
| FFO yield | 8.9% |
The price sits below what even a 5%/yr funds-from-operations decline would warrant; the inversion reports a bound, not a solved growth path.
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.9% cost of equity with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -1.99σ |
| cohort percentile (of 88 peers) | 21 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by asset-based and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.11x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.27x | 4 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.86x | 6 | justifies |
| Growth | 1.02x | 3 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Asset, Relative, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 6.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=18)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $43.08 | 1.02x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 11.2x / 13.2x / 15.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $93.87 | 0.47x | yes | P/E 25.48x (blended: static sector reference 35x + trailing (TTM) 11x), scenarios: 21.3x / 25.5x / 29.6x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 20x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $64.68 | 0.68x | yes | Stage 1: 7% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $34.00 | 1.29x | yes | BV/sh $17.76, ROE (TTM) 17.7%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $46.43 | 0.94x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $27.75 | 1.58x | yes | Rev $1.6B, growth 4% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 6.4x / 7.7x / 8.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $46.92 | 0.93x | yes | FFO/share $3.91, growth 7% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 10y median), PEG=2.05 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $29.17 | 1.50x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $1.09B × (1−0%) / WACC 6.1% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $46.32 | 0.95x | yes | BV $17.76 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 17.7% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $39.53 | 1.11x | yes | √(22.5 × FFO/share $3.91 × BVPS $17.76) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $81.48 | 0.54x | yes | EBITDA $1.56B × sector EV/EBITDA 20.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $10.21 | 4.29x | yes | FCF $1014.6M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $72.40 | 0.61x | yes | FFO/share $3.91 × (8.5 + 2×6.8%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $7.42 | 5.91x | yes | BV $17.76 × (ROIC 2.5% / WACC 6.1%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $34.27 | 1.28x | yes | Revenue $1.62B × sector P/S 6.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $39.87 | 1.10x | yes | FFO/share $3.91 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 6.8% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 10y median)) → PE 10.2x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $42.27 | 1.04x | yes | FFO/share $3.91 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | $55.37 | 0.79x | yes | FFO/share $3.91 × 14.2x P/FFO (route cohort median, n=85); FFO $1.11B (FFO incl. D&A + impairments, FY2025, companyfacts), shares 284M |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt (REIT basis) | $8.1b |
| Net debt / FFO | 7.29x |
| Fixed-charge coverage (FFO basis) | 3.9x |
| Funds from operations (trailing) | $1.1b |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 3.4% |
| Burning cash | no |
REIT basis: leverage is read against funds from operations (FFO), not depreciation-gutted operating income. The header's implied growth runs on ADJUSTED FFO — FFO minus recurring maintenance capex — so the header's multiple and this leverage ratio use bases that differ by that capex; neither substitutes for the other.
Bullet Takeaways
The earnings trajectory is the headline: Q1 2026 adjusted funds from operations rose 9.2% to $1.02 per diluted share on 6.3% revenue growth, and management raised full-year AFFO guidance. The cash earnings are moving the right direction.
A REIT is valued on its adjusted funds from operations, not an operating multiple. At $44.57 the price sits at about 12 times AFFO, low enough to be below what even a 5%-a-year decline in funds from operations would warrant. This is a value-supported real-estate trust.
The offset is leverage and rate sensitivity. Net financial leverage runs about 5 times EBITDA with $8.16 billion of debt, and the model relies on tenant casino operators paying long-dated rent. The 7% dividend yield is the reward for carrying that.
Bull Case
The direction of the cash earnings is the cleanest argument for Gaming and Leisure Properties, and right now it points up. This is a real-estate investment trust that owns the land and buildings under casinos and leases them back to gaming operators on long-term, triple-net contracts. The relevant metric for any REIT is adjusted funds from operations, the cash earnings after the maintenance capital that keeps the properties leasable, and in Q1 2026 GLPI grew AFFO 9.2% to $297.1 million, or $1.02 per diluted share, on revenue up 6.3% to $420.0 million. Management raised full-year 2026 AFFO guidance to $1.212 billion to $1.223 billion, or $4.08 to $4.12 per share. Rising cash earnings plus rising guidance is the trajectory a REIT investor wants, and it is happening while the units trade at a discounted multiple.
The growth is fueled by disciplined, accretive acquisitions. GLPI completed two major real-estate transactions totaling $727 million in the quarter, including the $700 million purchase of Bally's Twin River Lincoln at an 8.0% capitalization rate, plus a $27 million land purchase for the Live! Virginia project within a $467 million commitment. An 8% cap rate on a casino property acquired by a REIT borrowing well below that rate is immediately accretive to AFFO, and it is exactly how a net-lease REIT compounds: buy long-dated, contracted rent streams at yields above the cost of capital. GLPI expects to deploy roughly $1.8 billion in future capital commitments by the end of 2027, funded primarily through free cash flow and existing equity forwards, a visible pipeline of accretive growth.
The income and the contract structure complete the value case. The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.78 per share, $3.12 annualized, a roughly 7% yield at the recent price, backed by the contractual rent the casino tenants pay. Triple-net casino leases are long-dated and bind tenants to maintain and pay regardless of property-level performance, which makes the rent stream more durable than the operating results of the casinos themselves. The valuation lenses support the price: relative valuation lands near $101, the two-stage DDM near $86, and the funds-from-operations multiple near $52, all above the $44.57 (June 27, 2026) quote. Against the net-lease REIT peer set of Essential Properties, Sabra, Omega Healthcare, LTC, and St. Joe, GLPI offers a growing AFFO stream, an accretive acquisition pipeline, a 7% covered yield, and a below-peer multiple. The price assumes flat-to-declining cash earnings; the trajectory and the pipeline argue for growth.
Bear Case
The bear case turns on what the price actually depends on: a stream of long-dated casino rent that has to keep arriving for decades, and the most fragile assumption is tenant durability. GLPI's funds from operations are only as good as the casino operators paying the rent. Gaming is a discretionary-spending business exposed to recessions, regional competition, and shifts in consumer behavior, and if a major tenant runs into financial trouble, the triple-net lease that looks ironclad on paper becomes a renegotiation or a vacancy. The price assumes the contracted rent compounds steadily; a tenant default or a wave of regional-casino weakness would break that assumption and the AFFO growth that supports the multiple. Concentration in a small number of large gaming operators makes this a real, not theoretical, risk.
The second problem is leverage and interest-rate sensitivity, which sit at the center of every REIT thesis. GLPI carries about $8.16 billion of long-term debt, with net financial leverage around 5.0 times annualized adjusted EBITDA. A net-lease REIT borrows to buy properties and profits from the spread between its cost of debt and the cap rates it pays, so when interest rates rise, that spread compresses and new acquisitions become less accretive. The $1.8 billion of planned future commitments has to be funded, and the cost of that funding moves with rates the company does not control. Higher-for-longer rates pressure both the refinancing of the existing debt stack and the economics of the growth pipeline, and they make the 7% yield compete against risk-free alternatives that have become more attractive.
The third issue is that the growth narrative is acquisition-dependent, and acquisitions can slow or sour. The AFFO-per-share growth rests on continuing to buy properties at attractive cap rates, but the supply of large casino sale-leaseback opportunities is finite, competition for them can compress cap rates, and a deal done at the wrong price or with the wrong tenant erodes value. The Bally's Twin River acquisition at an 8% cap rate is attractive today, but the pipeline's accretion depends on future deals being similarly priced. A REIT that needs external growth to lift per-share earnings is vulnerable when the deal flow dries up or the cost of capital rises. The dividend is well-covered today, but a covered dividend on a leveraged, tenant-concentrated, acquisition-dependent REIT is only as safe as the rent, the rates, and the deal pipeline that underpin it. A holder is betting that the casino tenants stay healthy, rates stay manageable, and accretive deals keep coming. The yield is the compensation for taking that combined risk, and the price already assumes the trajectory continues.
Valuation
A real-estate trust is valued on its adjusted funds from operations, the cash earnings plus property depreciation minus the recurring maintenance capital that keeps its buildings leasable, not on an operating multiple. At $44.57 GLPI trades at about 12 times adjusted funds from operations, a multiple so low that the price sits below what even a 5%-a-year decline in funds from operations would warrant. This is a bound, not a precise solve: the price is consistent with the market expecting cash earnings to fall rather than implying a specific growth rate. The priced-in assumption reads as within range, the assumed pace is within what GLPI has delivered, and the multiple sits in the lower half of the REIT peer group's price-to-AFFO.
The model X-ray is value-supported, with no family flagging the price as expensive. The relative-multiple methods land above the price (relative valuation near $101, EV/EBITDA relative near $81, funds-from-operations multiple near $52). The growth-DCF frames land at or above it (DCF exit multiple near $70, two-stage DDM near $86, discounted future market cap near $42). The asset-based frames bracket the quote (residual income near $46, two-stage excess return near $46, Graham number near $40). The earnings-power frame lands above (earnings-power value near $28 is the low outlier, but earnings yield near $42 and the FFO-based reads support the price). The blended cross-method anchor sits near $63, above the quote. For a REIT, the FFO-based and relative reads carry the most weight, and they say the price is below fair value.
The balance sheet is the central caveat and is read correctly on an FFO basis. GLPI carries about $8.16 billion of debt with net financial leverage around 5.0 times annualized adjusted EBITDA, typical for a net-lease REIT but a real sensitivity to interest rates and tenant health. The Q1 2026 results, record revenue up 6.3%, AFFO up 9.2% to $1.02 per share, $727 million of accretive acquisitions, and raised full-year AFFO guidance, are real and material to the forward view, as is the roughly 7% dividend yield. The reasonable conclusion is that GLPI is a growing, accretively-acquiring casino net-lease REIT trading below its peers on AFFO, where the upside is the cash-earnings trajectory and acquisition pipeline continuing, and the risk is leverage, rates, and tenant concentration. It is a value-and-income REIT bet whose return depends on the rent stream staying durable.
Catalysts
The Q1 2026 report was the most recent catalyst and a record one. Total revenue rose 6.3% year over year to $420.0 million, and adjusted funds from operations grew 9.2% to $297.1 million, or $1.02 per diluted share. Management raised full-year 2026 AFFO guidance to $1.212 billion to $1.223 billion, or $4.08 to $4.12 per share. The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.78 per share, $3.12 annualized, a roughly 7% yield. (Sources: StockTitan 8-K summaries; GuruFocus Q1 2026 highlights; Yahoo Finance earnings call.)
The acquisition pipeline is the growth catalyst. In the quarter GLPI completed two transactions totaling $727 million, including the $700 million Bally's Twin River Lincoln purchase at an 8.0% cap rate and a $27 million land purchase for the Live! Virginia project within a $467 million commitment. The company expects to deploy roughly $1.8 billion in future capital commitments by the end of 2027, with 2026 development funding of $590 million to $640 million. The signals to watch are AFFO-per-share growth, cap rates on new acquisitions, tenant credit health across the casino operators, the pace of deploying the committed pipeline, and interest-rate trends against the roughly 5.0 times leverage. Because the price assumes flat-to-declining cash earnings, continued accretive deals and rising AFFO would be the clearest upside catalyst, while tenant stress or higher financing costs would be the risk. (Sources: StockTitan; GuruFocus; Yahoo Finance.)
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Real estate (triple-net gaming properties) (reported)
- VICI (VICI Properties Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- EPRT (Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ADC (Agree Realty Corporation)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- O (REALTY INCOME CORP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- NNN (NNN REIT, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- FCPT (Four Corners Property Trust, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- WPC (W. P. Carey Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- LTC (LTC PROPERTIES INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.