Gold Fields Limited (GFI): what the price requires
At today's price, Gold Fields Limited (GFI) is priced for +8.5% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-17 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/GFI
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | GFI |
| Company | Gold Fields Limited |
| Current price | $33.35/sh |
| Composition | Gold 96% / Copper 3% / Silver 1% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 14.3% |
| Operating margin today | 40.2% |
| Margin compression implied | -25.9pp |
| Implied growth | 8.5% |
| Multiple paid | 15x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 12, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 9.3% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~6.1pp.
How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.31σ |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.80x | 4 | expensive |
| Earnings | 2.22x | 3 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.86x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 1.21x | 3 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=15)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $8.72 | 3.82x | yes | FCF base $0.4B, growth 8% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.6%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $30.11 | 1.11x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 46.1x / 51.1x / 56.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $17.91 | 1.86x | yes | P/E 16.74x (blended: static sector reference 14x + trailing (TTM) 23x), scenarios: 12.6x / 16.7x / 20.1x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 17.6x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $15.59 | 2.14x | yes | BV/sh $6.00, ROE (TTM) 24.0%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $25.17 | 1.32x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $27.51 | 1.21x | yes | Rev $5.2B, growth 8% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 4.3x / 5.7x / 6.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 6x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $25.41 | 1.31x | yes | EPS $1.39, growth 18% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=1.26 (Fair) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | $22.87 | 1.46x | yes | BV $6.00 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 24.0% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $13.70 | 2.43x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $1.39 × BVPS $6.00) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $3.14 | 10.62x | yes | EBITDA $0.63B × sector EV/EBITDA 8.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $2.65 | 12.58x | yes | FCF $423.6M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $44.85 | 0.74x | yes | EPS $1.39 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $8.72 | 3.82x | yes | Revenue $5.20B × sector P/S 1.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $38.12 | 0.87x | yes | EPS $1.39 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 18.3% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 27.4x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $15.03 | 2.22x | yes | EPS $1.39 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $1.6b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 1.20x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 0.78x |
| Interest coverage | 16.0x |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
At $38.58 no valuation family reaches the price. Asset, earnings-power, peer-multiple, and even forward growth models all land below it, which means the stock is priced on the gold price itself, not on the methods that try to value the business underneath it.
The priced-in bet is moderate but real: roughly 40 times operating income, implying operating growth held near its self-funding ceiling for about seven years. For a miner whose output is nearly all gold (96% of revenue), that is a bet that today's elevated metal price holds long enough to fund the growth pipeline.
The balance sheet is sound (net debt near $1.6B against roughly $0.9B trailing operating income, interest covered about 2.1 times) and the growth projects are funded. The risk is not solvency. It is that gold is cyclical and the price already assumes the good part of the cycle persists.
Bull Case
The most decisive number for Gold Fields is not on its income statement, it is the gold price, and right now that number is working in the company's favor. Gold Fields produces almost entirely one product, with gold at 96% of revenue and copper and silver as rounding error. That concentration is the whole thesis: when the metal runs, a low-cost, well-run miner converts the move into cash with operating leverage that a diversified business cannot match. Q1 2026 showed production rising even as costs crept up, and the company guides 2026 attributable gold-equivalent output to 2.40 to 2.60 million ounces. With the price of gold near record levels, that volume against a fixed cost base is what turns a 5% trailing operating margin into the cash machine the market is paying for.
The production base is real and improving. The FY2025 10-K reports that Salares Norte, after a successful ramp-up, "exceeded guidance, producing 396.5koz-eq" (FY2025 20-F-equivalent filing, accession 0001628280-26-021904), adding a new low-cost ounce stream to the portfolio. Group capital expenditure rose to US$1,399m in 2025 from US$1,183m the year before, with US$1,029m of that sustaining capital "to maintain the integrity of our assets" (accession 0001628280-26-021904). This is a company funding both the existing mines and the next generation of them out of operating cash, not raising equity to do it.
The growth pipeline gives the bull case a multi-year leg. The Windfall project in Quebec, which Gold Fields moved to fully control through the Osisko acquisition, is on track for first gold in the first half of 2029, with an in-principle impact-benefit agreement reached with the Cree Nation and a final investment decision targeted around mid-2026. That is a long-dated, high-grade ounce stream the current price is partly underwriting. Against the peer cohort of Kinross, Barrick, Agnico, Cameco, and Pan American, Gold Fields is the operator turning a record metal price into both current cash and a funded growth book at the same time. The implied bet, about seven years of ceiling-rate growth, is demanding but not absurd for a miner riding a real commodity upcycle.
Bear Case
The bear case is a single variable with enormous leverage: the gold price, which Gold Fields neither sets nor hedges away. At $38.58 (June 27, 2026) the stock is priced beyond what any standard valuation frame supports. The earnings-power lens lands near $15, the FCF-yield model near $3, the EV/EBITDA-relative model near $3, and even the most generous growth-DCF frame reaches only the low $30s. When every family of method, asset value, earnings power, peer multiples, and forward growth, sits below the price, the conclusion is that the market is not valuing the mines, it is extrapolating the metal. Gold is cyclical. The price embeds roughly seven years of growth at the self-funding ceiling, and history says only about a quarter of comparable fast-growers sustain that pace. If gold mean-reverts, the operating leverage that powers the bull case runs in reverse.
The second problem is that costs are rising into the strength. Q1 2026 lifted production but came with higher costs, and 2026 guidance puts all-in sustaining cost at US$1,800 to US$2,000 per ounce and all-in cost at US$2,075 to US$2,300 per ounce. Those are not low-cost-producer numbers anymore. The 10-K's own non-IFRS cost framework, built around "All-in costs or AIC" gross of by-product revenue (accession 0001628280-26-021904), shows how much of each ounce's price is consumed before it reaches shareholders. A high metal price masks cost inflation; a lower one exposes it. The margin cushion is thinner than the headline gold price suggests.
The third issue is execution and geography. The growth that justifies the price depends on projects that are years from cash. Salares Norte just ramped, the South Deep and Australian assets need ongoing sustaining capital of more than a billion dollars a year just to hold integrity (accession 0001628280-26-021904), and Windfall is a 2029 event still working through permitting, indigenous agreements, and a final investment decision. Mining is a business of weather, ore grade, water, labor, and host-government policy, any of which can turn a funded plan into a delayed one. The balance sheet, net debt near $1.6B with interest covered only about 2.1 times, is adequate at today's gold price and tighter at a lower one. The bet is not on the company's competence. It is on a commodity staying high long enough for the competence to pay off.
Valuation
Inverting the price is the clearest way to see the bet. At $38.58 the market is paying about 40 times company-wide operating income, which at an 8.4% cost of capital implies operating growth held near the 25% self-funding ceiling for roughly seven years. Each percentage point of assumed growth moves that implied horizon by about two years, so the number is sensitive. Set against the company's own cyclicality, the priced-in assumption reads as elevated: history suggests only about a quarter of comparable fast-growers sustain that pace for even six to seven years.
The model X-ray confirms there is no margin of comfort in the present business. Grouped into families, the methods all sit below the price. Asset-based frames land around $14 to $25 (Graham number near $14, residual income near $23, two-stage excess return near $25). Earnings-power frames land lowest in places (FCF yield near $3, earnings yield near $15). Peer-relative methods land near $9 to $19. Only the growth-leaning models climb toward the price, and even the discounted-future-market-cap frame reaches only about $29. The blended cross-method anchor sits near $22, well under the $38.58 quote. The honest read is that the price is a leveraged claim on the gold price rather than a valuation any single method endorses.
The balance sheet carries the bet without subsidizing it. Net debt is about $1.6B against roughly $0.9B of trailing operating income, with interest covered about 2.1 times, comfortable while gold is high and tighter if it falls. The growth book, Salares Norte already producing above guidance and Windfall funded toward 2029, is real and material to the forward thesis. The reasonable conclusion is that Gold Fields is a competent, fully-funded miner whose stock price has already capitalized a generous run for the metal. You are not buying mispriced mines; you are buying continued strength in gold, with the company's execution as the kicker.
Catalysts
The Q1 2026 operational update was the most recent marker: production rose year over year, though higher costs sent the stock lower on the print. For the full year, Gold Fields guides attributable gold-equivalent production of 2.40 to 2.60 million ounces, all-in sustaining cost of US$1,800 to US$2,000 per ounce, all-in cost of US$2,075 to US$2,300 per ounce, and capital expenditure of US$1,900m to US$2,100m. (Sources: Investing.com Q1 2026 earnings transcript; StockTitan 6-K summary; MarketScreener operational update.)
The near-term catalyst to watch is Windfall. Gold Fields reached an in-principle impact-benefit agreement with the Cree Nation during the quarter and expects to sign it shortly, public environmental hearings concluded at the end of April 2026 as the final step before permitting, and management targets a final investment decision around mid-2026, with first gold still planned for the first half of 2029. A positive FID and clean permitting would validate the long-dated ounce stream the price partly assumes; a delay would push the payoff further out. Beyond that, the dominant catalyst is exogenous: the gold price. Each quarterly update will be read against the metal, since that is what the stock is ultimately tracking. (Sources: Gold Fields CEO statement; MarketScreener; Investing.com.)
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Core business (reported)
- KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- AGI (ALAMOS GOLD INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- B (BARRICK MINING CORP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- NEM (NEWMONT CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- HMY (HARMONY GOLD MINING COMPANY LIMITED)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- BVN (BUENAVENTURA MINING CO INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- NEXA (NEXA RESOURCES S.A.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.