FULTON FINANCIAL CORP (FULT): what the price requires
At today's price, FULTON FINANCIAL CORP (FULT) is priced for 12.9% return on equity. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/FULT
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | FULT |
| Company | FULTON FINANCIAL CORP |
| Current price | $24.21/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | financials |
| Elite ROE must persist for | 27.4y before normalizing (held at the 12.4% elite tier) |
| Perpetuity-equivalent ROE | 12.9% |
| Return on equity now | 11.6% |
| ROE gap | +1.3pp |
| Price-to-book | 1.40x |
Solve inputs: computed at a 10.4% cost of equity; ROE searched up to the 12.4% ROE ceiling.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~11.3%; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: elevated
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | +2.66σ |
| cohort percentile (of 119 peers) | 51 |
| sustained it ~10 years at this level | 67% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 0.94x | 3 | justifies |
| Earnings | 0.71x | 2 | justifies |
| Relative | 0.41x | 3 | justifies |
| Growth | 1.14x | 2 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings, Relative, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 5.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=10)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Bank Fair Value (P/TBV) | — | $27.10 | 0.89x | yes | TBVPS $19.30 × 1.40x (ROE (TTM) 11.2% / CoE 9.3%, g=5.0% (sustainable: 65% retention × ROE, 5% cap; not the terminal-growth assumption), credit 1.54% allowance/loans → ×0.96, NPL 0.59% → ×1.00) |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $22.60 | 1.07x | yes | P/E 10x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 8.4x / 10.0x / 11.6x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA N/Ax |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $28.69 | 0.84x | yes | Stage 1: 20% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $23.41 | 1.03x | yes | BV/sh $19.30, ROE (TTM) 11.2%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $25.69 | 0.94x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $16.96 | 1.43x | yes | Rev $1.0B, growth 4% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 3.5x / 4.2x / 4.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $59.76 | 0.41x | yes | EPS $2.10, growth 28% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.39 (Undervalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Graham Number | Asset | $30.20 | 0.80x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $2.10 × BVPS $19.30) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $67.76 | 0.36x | yes | EPS $2.10 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $78.75 | 0.31x | yes | EPS $2.10 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $22.70 | 1.07x | yes | EPS $2.10 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 2.9% |
Deposit/float-funded balance sheet: debt is funding, not corporate leverage, and GAAP operating cash flow follows loan flows. Net-debt, interest-coverage, and cash-burn lenses do not apply. The solvency frame for a financial is regulatory capital and payout capacity (CET1, stress buffer, dividends plus buybacks against earnings).
Bullet Takeaways
- The franchise rests on net interest margin, which held at 3.58% (down one basis point) in Q1 2026 while net interest income makes up about 79% of revenue; a roughly 11% trailing ROE on $19.30 tangible book per share is the value anchor.
- The risk is competitive spread compression: national banks and digital players raise the deposit-cost floor while non-bank lenders take the best loan yields, and a flat yield curve plus mid-single-digit loan growth leaves little cushion above the cost of equity.
Bull Case
Start with where the $22.89 price sits against the valuation methods, because for a bank that comparison is unusually favorable here. The price lands near or below almost every applicable frame. The bank fair-value model, which marks tangible book at a multiple set by return on equity relative to cost of equity, lands near $27 on a $19.30 tangible book per share and a trailing ROE near 11.2%, putting the price at about 0.84x that estimate. The excess-return models land in the low-to-mid $20s, the two-stage dividend model near $29, and even the Graham number near $30. The relative-valuation lens lands almost exactly at the price on a sector-median 10x P/E. When asset-based, earnings-power, relative, and growth frames all cluster at or above the price, the read is a value, asset-supported name rather than a stretched growth bet.
The operating story underneath supports that read. In Q1 2026 Fulton earned operating EPS of $0.55 and net income to common near $92 million, with a net interest margin holding at 3.58%, down just one basis point quarter over quarter despite asset-yield pressure. The FY2025 10-K notes that net interest income made up roughly 79% of total revenues in 2025 (FY2025 10-K, accession 0000700564-26-000006), so margin stability is the core of the franchise, and holding NIM near 3.6% through a choppy rate environment is the main thing a regional bank needs to do.
Management has also added scale and capital strength. The company affirmed full-year 2026 operating guidance, reiterating mid-single-digit loan growth, controlled expense growth, and strong capital generation, with the only change a later-than-assumed Fed cut. The Blue Foundry acquisition is expected to lift NIM through purchase-accounting benefits as deposit repricing stabilizes. A roughly 11% trailing ROE on tangible book that the market prices below book value is the setup value investors look for in a regional bank.
Bear Case
The competitive pressure on a regional bank like Fulton comes from two directions, and both are intensifying. On deposits, the largest national banks and the digital-first players, the money-market funds, the high-yield online accounts, and the brokerage sweep programs, have made it permanently easier for customers to move cash to whatever pays most. That raises Fulton's funding cost floor and limits how cheaply it can hold the deposit base that anchors its net interest margin. The 10-K is direct that changes in market interest rates and the shape of the yield curve drive the revenue that makes up about 79% of the total (FY2025 10-K, accession 0000700564-26-000006), and a flatter or inverted curve squeezes the spread that competitors with cheaper funding can better defend.
On lending, regional banks face encroachment from non-bank lenders and fintech in exactly the consumer and small-business niches that carry the best risk-adjusted yields. Private credit and specialty finance have taken share in middle-market lending, while card and personal-loan fintechs compete for the consumer. That leaves Fulton concentrated in commercial real estate and traditional commercial lending, where credit risk is higher and the office segment in particular remains under pressure. The FY2025 10-K disclosed credit provisioning including losses on non-PCD loans, a reminder that the credit cycle has not fully cleared.
The valuation cuts both ways here. The same models that look cheap also imply the market is pricing modest growth, and the price already sits near the relative-valuation and earnings-yield anchors around $22 to $23. Net interest margin slipped a basis point last quarter on asset-yield pressure, and if loan growth stays at mid-single digits while deposit competition keeps funding costs sticky, the spread compresses rather than expands. A bank that earns near its cost of equity has little cushion: the stock is cheap because the market doubts the franchise can durably out-earn its hurdle as competition tightens.
Valuation
Fulton is a financial, so the inversion runs on return on equity and duration rather than operating-income growth. At $22.89 the price implies a long earnings-persistence horizon, around 30 years on the duration lever, against a cost of equity near 10.5%, which the engine characterizes as elevated on the relative lens but supported across the asset, earnings-power, and growth frames.
The model X-ray is the more useful picture. The bank fair-value model marks tangible book at 1.40x, derived from a trailing ROE near 11.2% against a 9.3% cost of equity, landing near $27. The simple and two-stage excess-return models land near $23 to $26 off the $19.30 tangible book per share, the two-stage dividend model near $29, the Graham number near $30, and the earnings-yield and relative-valuation methods almost exactly at the price near $22.70 on a sector-median 10x P/E. The blended landing across applicable methods sits near $26.
The characterization is that the price is supported by asset-based, earnings-power, relative-multiple, and growth value at once, an asset-supported name rather than a pure growth bet. The peer set, WSFS, VLY, NBHC, TCBK, and FRME, is mid-cap regional banks where book-value multiples and ROE-driven returns are the right yardstick. The investable question is whether Fulton can hold its roughly 11% ROE and 3.6% net interest margin as deposit competition and a soft yield curve press the spread. If it can, the stock is modestly cheap to tangible book; if NIM erodes toward the cost of equity, the asset support thins.
Catalysts
Fulton Financial reported Q1 2026 on April 23, with net income available to common near $92 million, diluted EPS of $0.51, and operating EPS of $0.55, a beat driven by efficiency gains. Net interest margin held at 3.58%, down one basis point quarter over quarter as lower loan and security yields trimmed net interest income by about $4 million. Management affirmed full-year 2026 operating guidance, with the only change an updated rate assumption reflecting a July rather than March Fed cut, and reiterated mid-single-digit annualized loan growth, controlled expense growth, and strong capital generation.
The near-term catalysts are the Blue Foundry acquisition and the rate path. Management expects the deal to lift net interest margin directionally through purchase-accounting benefits as deposit repricing stabilizes and asset repricing contributes. The Fed's timing matters in both directions: a cut helps funding costs but can pressure asset yields, so the net effect on the 3.6% margin is the key number to watch in the next print. Credit quality, particularly in commercial real estate, is the other item to monitor given the provisioning disclosed in the latest 10-K.
Sources: Fulton Financial Q1 2026 results and call highlights (StockTitan, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, themarketsdaily.com, April 2026).
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Community Banking (single reportable segment) (reported)
- FRME (FIRST MERCHANTS CORP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- TCBK (TriCo Bancshares)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- VLY (VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- WSFS (WSFS FINANCIAL CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CVBF (CVB FINANCIAL CORP.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- BANR (Banner Corporation)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CATY (Cathay General Bancorp)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- WBS (WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.