AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (FOLD): what the price requires

At today's price, AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (FOLD) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~17.5 years. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.

Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/FOLD

Headline

FieldValue
TickerFOLD
CompanyAMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC.
Current price$14.50/sh
CompositionGalafold U.S. 34% / Galafold Ex-U.S. 48% / Pombiliti + Opfolda U.S. 8% / Pombiliti + Opfolda Ex-U.S. 10%

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Operating margin today6.5%
Must persist for17.5y
Multiple paid122x operating income

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.7% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2.6 years.

How unusual the bet is: elevated (limited comparison data)

ReferenceValue
sustained it ~10 years at this level14%
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore requires assumptions beyond what those standard frames encode.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset17.30x2expensive
Earnings—0—
Relative1.77x3expensive
Growth3.12x4expensive

Families that call it expensive: Asset, Relative, Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.6%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=9)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$1.638.89xyesFCF base $0.0B, growth 20% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.5%, 7yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$8.161.78xyesExit EV/EBITDA: 115.5x / 117.5x / 119.5x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr
Relative ValuationRelative$8.171.77xyesP/S fallback (negative EPS): Sector P/S 4.0x × TTM revenue — excluded from consensus
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth——no—
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$0.8816.47xyesBook value floor: BV/sh $0.88, ROE negative
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$0.8018.12xyesBook value with convergence: BV/sh $0.88, ROE converges to ke
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$8.421.72xyesRev $0.6B, growth 20% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 5.8x / 7.1x / 8.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$0.00—noNegative/zero EPS — earnings-based value floored at $0
Margin TrajectoryGrowth$3.254.46xyesMargin ramp: -4% → 12% over 7yr, rev growth 20% (input: historical growth; tapered)
Earnings Power ValueEarnings——no—
Residual IncomeAsset——no—
Graham NumberAsset——no—
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative$1.3410.82xyesEBITDA $0.04B × sector EV/EBITDA 16.0x
FCF YieldEarnings$0.3048.32xyesFCF $29.8M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity (excluded from median)
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings——no—
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings——no—
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$0.2072.47xyesBV $0.88 × (ROIC 1.9% / WACC 8.5%) (excluded from median)
P/Sales SectorRelative$8.171.77xyesRevenue $0.63B × sector P/S 4.0x
PEG Fair ValueRelative——no—
Earnings YieldEarnings——no—
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$99.1m
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)4.79x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)2.57x
Interest coverage0.8x
Share count CAGR (dilution)3.8%
Burning cashno

Bullet Takeaways

The single fact that overrides everything else: Amicus has agreed to be acquired by BioMarin for $14.50 a share in all cash, about $4.8 billion, with the deal expected to close in the second quarter of 2026. The stock trades right at that price, so this is now a merger situation, not a standalone-valuation story.

That is why every fundamental valuation method lands far below the price. The cash takeout value, a 33% premium to the undisturbed price, is what the market is paying for, and the static frames anchored to the company's own book value and earnings power cannot reach a negotiated control premium.

The standalone business underneath is a commercial-stage rare-disease pharma: Galafold for Fabry disease drives most of revenue, with Pombiliti plus Opfolda for Pompe disease growing fast. The remaining question for a holder is deal completion, not intrinsic value.

Bull Case

Read at face value, Amicus today is best understood by its stage and its situation: a commercial-stage rare-disease pharmaceutical company that has agreed to be acquired. BioMarin has signed a definitive agreement to buy Amicus for $14.50 a share in cash, valuing the equity at roughly $4.8 billion, a 33% premium to the undisturbed share price and a 46% premium to the 30-day average. For a current holder, the bull case is straightforward: a credible strategic acquirer has put a firm cash price on the company, the stock trades at that price, and the remaining upside is the certainty of collecting it at close, expected in the second quarter of 2026.

The reason BioMarin wanted the assets is the standalone strength of the franchise. Amicus built a profitable, growing rare-disease business around Galafold, the first oral treatment for Fabry disease, which generated $521.7 million of net product sales in 2025, and Pombiliti plus Opfolda for Pompe disease, which the filing reports reached $112.5 million of revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025 [FY2025 10-K, accession 0001178879-26-000005]. Total revenue grew at a double-digit constant-currency rate to $634.2 million, and the company reached GAAP profitability in 2025, a genuine milestone for a company that spent years investing ahead of its commercial ramp. The two-component Pompe therapy taps a significant commercial opportunity that is still early in its growth.

The pipeline added strategic value on top of the marketed products. Amicus holds U.S. rights to DMX-200, a phase-3 investigational treatment for focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, a rare and fatal kidney disease, which gives the acquirer optionality beyond the current revenue base. For BioMarin, the combination expands its rare-disease portfolio, accelerates revenue growth, and strengthens its financial outlook, which is why it was willing to pay a control premium that the company's standalone valuation methods do not reach. The bull case for a shareholder is the deal itself.

Bear Case

With a signed cash deal at $14.50 and the stock trading there, the relevant risk is not the business cycle but the external variables that determine whether the acquisition closes, and those carry real leverage. The transaction is subject to regulatory clearances, approval by Amicus stockholders, and customary closing conditions. Any of those can slip. Antitrust review, a competing consideration, or a financing hiccup could delay or, in a worst case, break the deal, and if it broke, the stock would fall back toward its undisturbed, pre-announcement level, well below $14.50. A holder buying at the deal price is accepting limited upside, the small remaining spread to close, against the larger downside of a deal failure.

The standalone fundamentals that would matter in a break scenario are mixed, which raises the stakes of completion. Amicus depends heavily on a single product, Galafold, for the majority of its revenue, and that product faces established competition in Fabry disease from Sanofi's Fabrazyme and Takeda's Replagal, the enzyme-replacement therapies that preceded it. The filing acknowledges the broader competitive risk that others "may result in others discovering, developing or commercializing products before or more successfully than we do" [FY2025 10-K, accession 0001178879-26-000005]. Concentration in one rare-disease franchise, with patent and competitive considerations, is exactly the kind of standalone risk a control premium papers over.

The balance sheet is the other standalone vulnerability. Amicus carries meaningful debt, including a Senior Secured Term Loan due 2029 at a high floating rate, the filing referencing a margin of 6.25% per year on borrowings entered in 2023 [FY2025 10-K, accession 0001178879-26-000005], and interest coverage is thin against its modest operating profit. The company has historically funded itself with debt and equity-linked instruments that can dilute shareholders. On a standalone basis, a leveraged, single-product rare-disease company at a price that every valuation method says is far above intrinsic value would be hard to justify. The price is the deal price; the bear case is that the deal does not close.

Valuation

Amicus is a special situation, and the valuation has to be read through that lens. The stock trades at $14.50, exactly the cash price BioMarin agreed to pay, so the price reflects a negotiated control premium, not a standalone intrinsic value. That is why the inversion and the X-ray both read as extremely elevated: at the deal price the market is effectively paying about 122 times standalone operating income, a figure that only makes sense because the buyer is paying for the whole company and its pipeline, not for next year's earnings.

Every fundamental method lands far below the price, which is the expected pattern for an acquisition target. The asset-based methods anchor to a book value of only $0.88 a share, reflecting years of accumulated deficit, and land near $1. The earnings-power method is disabled because normalized operating income does not cover the cost of capital. The relative and forward-growth frames land in the $8 range on the company's revenue and growth. No valuation family reaches $14.50, and the model reliability is flagged as low precisely because the price is a deal artifact rather than a market-cleared valuation of the operating business.

The honest synthesis is that intrinsic-value analysis is the wrong tool here. The price is set by the merger agreement, and the question for a holder is the probability and timing of close, not whether the standalone business is worth $14.50. The small spread between the trading price and the deal price is the merger-arbitrage return; the risk is a deal break that would re-expose the stock to the standalone fundamentals, which the methods say sit well below the current price. Until the deal closes or fails, the valuation is the deal.

Catalysts

The dominant catalyst is the pending acquisition itself. BioMarin agreed to acquire Amicus for $14.50 a share in cash, roughly $4.8 billion in total, in BioMarin's largest-ever transaction, financed through cash on hand and about $3.7 billion of nonconvertible debt. The deal is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory clearances and approval by Amicus stockholders. Because of the pending acquisition, Amicus is not providing 2026 financial guidance and is not hosting its usual quarterly earnings calls, so the normal catalyst calendar is effectively suspended.

The discrete catalysts from here are deal milestones, not operating results. The Amicus stockholder vote, antitrust and regulatory clearances, and the satisfaction of customary closing conditions are the events that determine whether and when shareholders receive the $14.50. Each clearance is a step toward close; any delay, regulatory complication, or unexpected hurdle is the risk.

In the event the deal does not close, the standalone catalysts would return to relevance: the continued growth of Galafold in Fabry disease, the ramp of Pombiliti plus Opfolda in Pompe disease, and progress on the DMX-200 phase-3 program in focal segmental glomerulosclerosis. Analyst price targets ahead of the deal clustered above the prior trading price, and the cash offer sits at a premium to the undisturbed price, so for now the only catalyst that matters is completion. The watch items are the regulatory timeline and the shareholder vote.

Sources: BioMarin to acquire Amicus for $4.8 billion, BioMarin IR; BioMarin's $4.8B Amicus acquisition deal terms, Global Genes; Amicus FY2025 results, GlobeNewswire; Amicus Galafold and competition context, Nasdaq; BioMarin $4.8B buyout of Amicus, FiercePharma.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Amicus Therapeutics (single operating segment) (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

View the full interactive FOLD report on boothcheck