FLUOR CORPORATION (FLR): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $56.16, FLUOR CORPORATION (FLR) is priced for +7.2% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-26.

Generated: 2026-09-07 · Exported: 2026-09-09 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/FLR

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 10.5% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: n/a

Valuation X-Ray

Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore sits beyond what those standard frames encode.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=5)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Leverage and coverage are computed on normalized mid-cycle operating income (mid-cycle margin 2.8%); the trailing year was depressed.

Bullet Takeaways

• Fluor's three businesses turned 3.66 billion dollars of first-quarter revenue into 8 million dollars of segment profit, a 0.2% margin against 3.3% in the same quarter a year earlier.
• Most of that swing sits in two identified items rather than in broad erosion: a 96 million dollar charge in Mission Solutions from a court ruling on a lawsuit filed against the company in 2013, and 37 million dollars of cost growth on one large mining job in Urban Solutions.
• Second-quarter results are due August 7, 2026, and the question they answer is whether the roughly 1.4 billion dollar buyback target survives now that the NuScale Power share sales financing it are finished.

Bull Case

Two cents. That is what Fluor has converted into operating profit per dollar of revenue across a full cycle, and nearly every argument about the stock resolves into whether that figure moves. It reads worse than it is, because most of the revenue line was never Fluor's to keep. In the first quarter of 2026, at-cost revenue, meaning the materials and equipment a client pays for that pass across the books without markup, ran roughly 2.1 billion dollars of the 3.66 billion dollars reported, about 58% of the total. The company says so directly: "Excluding the amounts of at-cost revenue from both GAAP revenue and from project cost yields an amount that we call adjusted net margin." The fee Fluor actually earns is charged against something closer to 40 cents of every reported dollar.

One segment already shows what that fee business looks like when it works. Energy Solutions produced 74 million dollars of segment profit on 703 million dollars of revenue in the first quarter, against 47 million on 1,206 million a year before. The 10-Q attributes the improvement to favorable close-out items on three projects, which is precisely the point. In engineering and construction the profit is made or lost at the end, when disputed scope and change orders settle. Fluor settled three of them in its own favour inside a single quarter, on a revenue base that had nearly halved. The annual report notes the segment's structural shape too: "During both 2025 and 2024, at-cost revenue for Energy Solutions was approximately $2 billion (or approximately 49% and 37% of their segment revenue)." Take that out and the fee margin on the work Fluor is actually paid to perform looks nothing like the headline.

The clearest read on what management thinks the shares are worth is what it is doing with the proceeds. Sales of NuScale Power shares have generated 2.43 billion dollars since September 2025, and the final 40 million shares went in April 2026 for 473 million dollars, completing the divestiture. In the first quarter alone Fluor spent 516 million dollars buying back and cancelling 11 million shares, the board added 30 million shares to the authorisation in February 2026, and the company is targeting roughly 1.4 billion dollars of repurchases across 2026. Against a market value near 7.7 billion dollars, that is a company retiring close to a fifth of itself inside a single calendar year, funded by selling an asset rather than by borrowing against one.

The balance sheet behind it is unusual for a contractor. Cash and marketable securities stood near 3.2 billion dollars on March 31, 2026 against 1,071 million dollars of long-term debt, with roughly 903 million dollars of undrawn facility behind that. Interest income of 25 million dollars in the quarter ran ahead of interest expense of 10 million. That matters more than it sounds. A contractor who can absorb a long working-capital swing on a large project without asking a bank is a contractor who can walk away from a bad lump-sum bid, and bad lump-sum bids are where this industry's losses are manufactured.

None of which denies the obvious. The margin has to move, and the first quarter did not show it moving. But the room is real and it is measurable against the cohort: AECOM (ACM) converts 6.3% of revenue into operating profit, GRANITE CONSTRUCTION (GVA) 6.3%, JACOBS SOLUTIONS (J) 4.5% and KBR 10.0%. Fluor's own through-the-cycle rate is roughly 2.8%. The distance between those figures is simultaneously the opportunity and the indictment, and the bull case is the plain claim that a business with this balance sheet and this shareholder register gets to close some of it.

Bear Case

The uncomfortable sentence is a short one: the operating business lost money over the last twelve months, and the reported profit came from selling things. Filed operating income for the twelve months through March 2026 was a loss of roughly 377 million dollars, against a positive 463 million in fiscal 2024. Even the first quarter of 2026, which printed 92 million dollars of operating profit, contains a 124 million dollar gain on the sale of the CFHI joint venture and a 16 million dollar currency gain. The three segments between them contributed 8 million.

Now the requirement. Paying $52.19 a share works only if you underwrite a normal year rather than this one, and the normal year embedded in the price is one where the through-the-cycle operating margin of roughly 2.8% holds and operating profit compounds at about 2.7% a year from there. The growth rate is not the demanding part. The starting point is. That 2.8% is a multi-year average that leans on fiscal 2024's 463 million dollars of operating income, while fiscal 2025 came in at a loss of 378 million. If the honest mid-cycle margin sits closer to the last two years than to the last five, the multiple embedded in today's price roughly doubles with the share price not moving at all.

The mechanism by which that happens is written into the risk factors without euphemism: "The nature of our contracts, particularly our lump-sum contracts, subject us to risks associated with delays and cost overruns, which may not be fully recoverable and may result in reduced profits or losses that could have a material impact on us." The first quarter supplied two live examples. Mission Solutions absorbed a 96 million dollar charge from a court ruling on a lawsuit filed against Fluor in 2013, turning a segment that earned 5 million dollars a year earlier into a 71 million dollar loss. Urban Solutions booked 37 million dollars of cost growth on one large mining job. Neither was a macro event. Both were execution and legacy liability, and both were company-specific.

The top line is not compounding either. Energy Solutions revenue fell from 1,206 million dollars to 703 million year over year, Mission Solutions from 597 million to 523 million. Backlog on March 31, 2026 was level with the December 31, 2025 figure, which for a business whose annual report states "Our revenue and earnings are largely dependent on new awards. The award and timing of projects is unpredictable and driven by our clients." describes a holding pattern rather than a build. Urban Solutions is the one segment growing, from 2,157 million dollars to 2,437 million, and all that extra work produced 6 million dollars of segment profit against 70 million a year earlier. The annual report adds a concentration the reader should hold onto: revenue from a single customer amounted to 15% of consolidated revenue during 2025.

What bounds the downside has changed shape, and not in the holder's favour. It used to include an equity position: the NuScale Power investment was carried at 1,579 million dollars at the end of 2025 and 433 million by March 31, 2026, with the remainder sold in April. What remains is liquidity and a buyback. Liquidity is a genuine floor, and it is being spent deliberately, roughly 1.4 billion dollars of it over the course of 2026 if the repurchase target is met. Retiring shares raises per-share claims on whatever the segments eventually earn. It does not raise what the segments earn, and on the evidence of the most recent quarter that is still the only question that matters.

Valuation

Strip out the asset sales and the question the price puts becomes narrow. The market is paying roughly ten times the operating income Fluor produces in a normal year, and to support that it needs operating profit to compound at about 2.7% a year through the back half of the decade before settling into a slower terminal pace. Measured against its own record, 2.7% is not a stretch; the company has cleared that rate. The strain sits underneath it, in the definition of a normal year.

None of the standard methods reach today's price. Peer multiples come closest, with the price sitting about 39% above where the peer-multiple methods land. The asset-value methods, book value adjusted for the returns actually earned on it, sit further back still, with the price about 79% above them. The price sits roughly 141% above the earnings-power methods and about 181% above the forward-growth methods. When every family lands below, the price is not being defended by any standard frame; it is being defended by an expectation of normalisation that none of those frames encodes.

That pattern deserves one qualification, because two of those families are reading a trailing earnings stream that is not what it appears. Trailing earnings per share of $2.19 is carried substantially by equity-method income and disposal gains rather than by project work. Equity-method results swung from a 393 million dollar loss in the first quarter of 2025 to a 51 million dollar gain in the first quarter of 2026. Methods that capitalise that stream are capitalising something the company has now sold.

The concrete version of what has to be true: roughly 2.8% operating margins on about 15.2 billion dollars of revenue. Trailing operating margin is negative, and the segments delivered 0.2% in the most recent quarter. For scale on where that level sits in the cohort, AECOM (ACM) runs a 6.3% operating margin, KBR 10.0%, GRANITE CONSTRUCTION (GVA) 6.3% and JACOBS SOLUTIONS (J) 4.5%. The margin the price requires is not an industry stretch. It is a Fluor-specific one, and the cohort comparison sharpens rather than softens it.

Solvency bounds the downside and bounds it well. Cash and marketable securities near 3.2 billion dollars against 1,071 million dollars of long-term debt leaves no net borrowings, interest income running ahead of interest expense, and undrawn facility capacity behind both. The share count is now falling, with 11 million shares retired in the first quarter. What that floor cannot do is settle the margin question, and the margin question is the one the price is asking.

Catalysts

The next scheduled information event is second-quarter results on August 7, 2026. Two developments since the first-quarter filing change what those numbers will describe. Fluor completed the sale of its remaining 40 million NuScale Power shares in April 2026 for 473 million dollars, closing out a programme that has produced 2.43 billion dollars since September 2025. On July 16, 2026 the company sold its interest in the ICA-Fluor Daniel joint venture to its partner for 175 million dollars. Both are disposals, and both land in a year where management has targeted roughly 1.4 billion dollars of share repurchases.

Award activity has been the busier half of the quarter. Saudi Aramco selected Fluor as a program management consultancy contractor under a long-term agreement covering global capital projects on July 6, 2026. Gulf Petrochemical Industries Company awarded front-end engineering and design work for an aromatics facility in Bahrain on July 21, 2026. Front-end engineering is the reimbursable, low-risk end of this business, and it is also where the later construction awards originate, so both matter more for what they may become than for what they book now.

On delivery, a Fluor joint venture reached substantial completion on the Chicago Transit Authority's Red and Purple Line modernisation programme on July 1, 2026, a project of roughly 2.1 billion dollars. Completions are where engineering and construction profit is recognised or written off, as the first quarter demonstrated in both directions. How that programme closes out is the specific line to read in the August print.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Urban Solutions (reported)

• ACM (AECOM)
• FY2025 10-K: …types of customers. • Americas : Planning, advisory, consulting, architectural and engineering design, construction management and program management services to public and private clients in the United States, Canada, and Latin America in major end markets such as transportation, water, government, facilities,…
• FY2025 10-K: …water service offerings, we provide water, wastewater, water supply and water resource services, which are necessary in response to sustainability and resilience, drought mitigation and other factors as part of major capital/infrastructure projects. Our services may be sequenced over multiple phases or multiple…
• J (JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …growth and deliver scalable, full lifecycle solutions across water and environmental, life sciences and advanced manufacturing, and critical infrastructure. Page 4 As global challenges like urbanization, infrastructure modernization, digital evolution and environmental resilience intensify, our integrated delivery…
• FY2025 10-K: …- enabling clients to tackle complex challenges, accelerate sustainable growth and shape a smarter, more resilient future. A streamlined, focused business Prior to the Separation Transaction, the Company's four operating segments were comprised of its two global lines of business ("LOBs"): Critical Mission Solutions…
• KBR (KBR, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …worldwide, the following table describes the locations of our more significant existing office facilities: Location Owned/Leased Business Segment North America: Houston, Texas Leased All Fulton, Maryland Leased Mission Technology Solutions Columbia, Maryland Leased Mission Technology Solutions Lexington Park,…
• FY2025 10-K: …$ 235 $ 280 Note 2. Business Segment Information We provide a wide range of professional services, and the management of our business is heavily focused on major projects or programs within each of our reportable segments. At any given time, government programs and joint ventures represent a substantial part of our…
• PRIM (Primoris Services Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …systems. ​ The Energy segment operates throughout the United States and Canada and specializes in a range of services that include engineering, procurement, construction, and maintenance services for entities in the energy, renewable energy and energy storage, renewable fuels, and petroleum and petrochemical…
• FY2025 10-K: …such as pipe, solar panels, turbines, boilers and vessels, are typically supplied by the customer. ​ Substantially all of our gas and electric distribution and communication services are provided pursuant to renewable MSAs on a "unit-price" basis. Fees on unit-price contracts are negotiated and earned based on units…
• STRL (Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Solutions, Transportation Solutions and Building Solutions. The segment information for the prior periods presented has been recast to conform to the current presentation. The Company's CODM, which is the Company's Chief Executive Officer, uses both segment gross profit and operating income for each segment…
• FY2025 10-K: 's revenue in 2025, 47% in 2024 and 50% in 2023. 5 Building Solutions -Our Building Solutions segment is comprised of our residential and commercial businesses. The principal geographic market for our residential business is Texas, specifically Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and the surrounding communities. In 2021, we…
• TTEK (TETRA TECH, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Our solutions may span the entire life cycle of high-end consulting and engineering projects and include applied science, data analysis, research, engineering, design and project management. We manage our operations under two reportabl e segments. Our Government Services Group ("GSG") reportable segment primarily…
• FY2025 10-K: …for commercial and government clients across the municipal water, energy, transportation, defense and manufacturing sectors. Both CAW and SAGE are included in our CIG segment. In fiscal 2024, we acquired LS Technologies ("LST"), an innovative U.S. federal enterprise technology services and management consulting firm…
• FER (Ferrovial SE)
• FY2025 20-F: …School (since 2012). Previously, he held various executive roles at IBM Corporation, a U.S. technology multinational company, including as a general manager for IBM Latin America (2002-2004), general manager of IBM Europe (2005-2008), general manager of the growth markets unit (2008-2011), and senior vice-president…
• FY2025 20-F: …that fines are imposed for construction delays. 10 I-66 Several bank guarantees due to disputed amounts owed to Virginia Department of Transport and to replace reserve accounts. 60 Misae Solar IV Several parent company guarantees covering the Storm Insurance, the Contingent Equity, the Tax Equity Bridge Loan and the…
• GVA (GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …which include analyzing the risk of a potential job relative to: (1) available personnel to estimate and prepare the proposal as well as to effectively manage and build the project; (2) project procurement methodology; (3) the competitive environment; (4) our experience with the type of work and the owner; (5) local…
• FY2025 10-K: , will reduce our profit on the project. The percentage of fixed price contracts in our unearned revenue was 34.6% and 33.2% at December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. All other contract types represented 8.5% and 7.7% of our unearned revenue at December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. Within our Construction…

Energy Solutions (reported)

• KBR (KBR, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …to provide solutions and technologies to mission critical work aligned with our customers' and our nation's critical priorities. Sustainable Technology Outlook Long-range commercial market fundamentals are supported by global population growth, expanding global development and an acceleration of demand for energy…
• FY2025 10-K: …worldwide, the following table describes the locations of our more significant existing office facilities: Location Owned/Leased Business Segment North America: Houston, Texas Leased All Fulton, Maryland Leased Mission Technology Solutions Columbia, Maryland Leased Mission Technology Solutions Lexington Park,…
• MTZ (MasTec, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …wireless and wireline/fiber networks, data center buildout and interconnection, wireless integration and optimization and install-to-the-home services, as well as select utility infrastructure, among others. Our Clean Energy and Infrastructure segment primarily serves energy, utility, government and other end-markets…
• FY2025 10-K: …with increased reliance on renewable energy to meet these needs. Through our Clean Energy and Infrastructure segment, we provide engineering, procurement and construction services and project management solutions to the power market, with services across wind, solar, biofuels, waste-to-energy (WtE) and biogas,…
• PRIM (Primoris Services Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …systems. ​ The Energy segment operates throughout the United States and Canada and specializes in a range of services that include engineering, procurement, construction, and maintenance services for entities in the energy, renewable energy and energy storage, renewable fuels, and petroleum and petrochemical…
• FY2025 10-K: …such as pipe, solar panels, turbines, boilers and vessels, are typically supplied by the customer. ​ Substantially all of our gas and electric distribution and communication services are provided pursuant to renewable MSAs on a "unit-price" basis. Fees on unit-price contracts are negotiated and earned based on units…
• TTEK (TETRA TECH, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …for commercial and government clients across the municipal water, energy, transportation, defense and manufacturing sectors. Both CAW and SAGE are included in our CIG segment. In fiscal 2024, we acquired LS Technologies ("LST"), an innovative U.S. federal enterprise technology services and management consulting firm…
• FY2025 10-K: , if any, of the Settlement Amounts will be recovered from the insurance carrier. As a result of the settlement agreement and consent decree with the United States and in connection with discussions regarding the ancillary claims, we recorded a $ 115.0 million charge to operating income ($ 97.0 million for the…
• ACM (AECOM)
• FY2025 10-K: …types of customers. • Americas : Planning, advisory, consulting, architectural and engineering design, construction management and program management services to public and private clients in the United States, Canada, and Latin America in major end markets such as transportation, water, government, facilities,…
• FY2025 10-K: …and value proposition. Our business focuses primarily on providing fee-based knowledge-based services. We primarily derive income from our ability to generate revenue and collect cash from our clients through the billing of our employees' time spent on client projects and our ability to manage our costs. AECOM…
• FER (Ferrovial SE)
• FY2025 20-F: …that fines are imposed for construction delays. 10 I-66 Several bank guarantees due to disputed amounts owed to Virginia Department of Transport and to replace reserve accounts. 60 Misae Solar IV Several parent company guarantees covering the Storm Insurance, the Contingent Equity, the Tax Equity Bridge Loan and the…
• FY2025 20-F: …and energy categories. Calculation of carbon emissions is based on GHG Protocol and involve 100% Ferrovial's activities worldwide. The Climate Strategy was submitted for advisory vote at the Annual General Meeting held in April 2025. Focusing on operational efficiency, we search for innovative technological solutions…

Mission Solutions (reported)

• KBR (KBR, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Solutions segment. We will begin reporting new segment information due to this change beginning the first fiscal quarter of 2026. 10 Mission Technology Solutions Spin-off In September 2025, we announced our intention to spin off our Mission Technology Solutions business into a separate, U.S. publicly-traded company…
• FY2025 10-K: …$ 235 $ 280 Note 2. Business Segment Information We provide a wide range of professional services, and the management of our business is heavily focused on major projects or programs within each of our reportable segments. At any given time, government programs and joint ventures represent a substantial part of our…
• LDOS (Leidos Holdings, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …across these reportable segments. NATIONAL SECURITY & DIGITAL Our National Security & Digital business provides leading-edge and technologically advanced services, solutions and products across substantially all U.S. federal government customers. Our advanced capabilities allow us to provide technology-enabled…
• FY2025 10-K: …more than 120 countries, including people scanners, computed tomography carry-on baggage scanners, checked baggage scanners, and explosive trace detectors. We are also the primary supplier to CBP and other 4 Leidos Holdings, Inc. Annual Report Table of Contents PART I international customers of mobile, non-intrusive…
• BWXT (BWX Technologies Inc)
• FY2025 10-K: …In addition, this segment offers in-plant inspection, maintenance and modification services for nuclear steam generators, heat exchangers, reactors, fuel handling systems and balance of plant equipment, as well as specialized non-destructive examination and tooling/repair solutions. This segment also offers a broad…
• FY2025 10-K: …with manufacturing integration. This segment's capabilities include: • steam generation and separation equipment design and development; • thermal-hydraulic design of reactor plant components; • in-plant inspection, maintenance and modification services; • nuclear component modification and replacement; • commercial…
• AMTM (Amentum Holdings, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and a deep understanding of our customers' missions and priorities developed over more than 100 years as trusted engineering and technical experts. We operate our business activities and report financial results as two reportable segments: Digital Solutions ("DS") and Global Engineering Solutions ("GES"). Our history…
• FY2025 10-K: …to a broad base of U.S. and allied government agencies, and customers in international and commercial markets, supporting programs of critical national importance across energy and environmental, intelligence, space, defense, civilian and commercial end-markets. We offer a broad reach of capabilities including…
• DRS (Leonardo DRS, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: ASC") and Integrated Mission Systems ("IMS"). For information regarding segment performance see Part II, Item 7, " Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations " in this Annual Report. Advanced Sensing and Computing Our ASC segment designs, develops and manufactures sensing and…
• FY2025 10-K: …Mission Systems 372,856 Leased 100 North Babcock Street, Melbourne, FL Manufacturing, Engineering, Warehouse, Office Advanced Sensing and Computing 336,287 Leased 6060 Highway, High Ridge, MO Manufacturing, Engineering, Office Integrated Mission Systems 183,600 Owned 4201 Innovation Way, Bridgeton, MO Manufacturing,…
• PSN (Parsons Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …and existing solutions to new customers 14 • Promoting a culture that enables employees to drive technology and business model innovation • Streamlining operations and processes to optimize performance delivery and reduce overhead expenditures • Rigorously managing our working capital to maximize cash flow •…
• FY2025 10-K: …systems, integration, and warfighter applications. Our customers span the U.S. Intelligence Community, including the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), National Reconnaissance Office (NRO)); U.S. Department of War (DOW) (military services, and Special Operations Command (SOCOM)). Representative products…
• SAIC (Science Applications International Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …management and operations, sustainment and security of the customers' entire IT infrastructure. Our long-standing customer relationships have enabled us to achieve an in-depth understanding of our customers' missions and provide differentiated service offerings to meet our customers' most complex requirements.…
• FY2025 10-K: , we leverage our expertise and scale to help them execute their mission. We succeed as a business based on the solutions we deliver, our past performance, and our ability to compete on price. Our solutions are inspired through innovation based on adoption of best practices and technology integration of the best…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.