Flowco Holdings Inc. (FLOC): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $21.16, Flowco Holdings Inc. (FLOC) is priced for +19.8% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.
Generated: 2026-08-31 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/FLOC
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | FLOC |
| Company | Flowco Holdings Inc. |
| Current price | $21.16/sh |
| Composition | Production Solutions 65% / Natural Gas Technologies 35% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (value-band context) | 5.5% |
| Operating margin today | 18.8% |
| Margin compression (value-band) | -13.3pp |
| Implied growth | 19.8% |
| Multiple paid | 15x operating income |
The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 5: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 11.5% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.
How unusual the bet is: n/a
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| cohort percentile (of 225 peers) | 24 |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value, while asset-based lands below the price. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 2.96x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.03x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.93x | 2 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.69x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Earnings, Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=15)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $60.68 | 0.35x | yes | FCF base $0.2B, growth 8% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.1%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $30.70 | 0.69x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 4.9x / 6.9x / 8.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | — | — | no | P/E 24.14x (blended: static sector reference 18x + trailing (TTM) 38x), scenarios: 20.1x / 24.1x / 28.2x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 12x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $5.95 | 3.56x | yes | BV/sh $4.04, ROE (TTM) 13.6%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $7.15 | 2.96x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $17.45 | 1.21x | yes | Rev $0.8B, growth 8% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.9x / 2.3x / 2.7x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $18.96 | 1.12x | yes | EPS $1.30, growth 15% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=2.64 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $1.54 | 13.74x | yes | Normalized EBIT (latest-period EBIT; under 3y history) $0.04B × (1−13%) / WACC 8.1% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $7.39 | 2.86x | yes | BV $4.04 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 13.6% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $10.87 | 1.95x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $1.30 × BVPS $4.04) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | EBITDA $0.32B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $21.57 | 0.98x | yes | FCF $208.1M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $20.47 | 1.03x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.20B (FCF $0.21B − SBC $0.01B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $41.04 | 0.52x | yes | EPS $1.30 × (8.5 + 2×14.6%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $2.67 | 7.93x | yes | BV $4.04 × (ROIC 5.4% / WACC 8.1%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | — | — | no | Revenue $0.82B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $28.44 | 0.74x | yes | EPS $1.30 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 14.6% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 21.9x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $14.05 | 1.51x | yes | EPS $1.30 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production Solutions | operating | enterprise | $497.3m | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
| Natural Gas Technologies | operating | enterprise | $262.4m | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $301.4m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 2.25x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 1.96x |
| Interest coverage | 9.0x |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
Flowco trades near $22.71, which works out to about 17 times company-wide operating income. Lined up against the valuation methods, that is on the demanding side: the price implies the company holds a high growth rate near its self-funding ceiling for roughly five years, and only a minority of comparable fast-growers have sustained that pace.
The business is a recently public oil-and-gas production-optimization company, built from the 2025 merger of three artificial-lift and gas-handling businesses, with two segments, Production Solutions at about 65% and Natural Gas Technologies at about 35%. It is growing fast, around 29% on the top line, and earning a healthy operating margin near 19%.
The tension is between strong current economics and a high price for them. Returns are good and cash flow is real, but the multiple already pays for several years of continued fast growth, and the underlying driver is oil-and-gas customer activity, which management says has not yet materially picked up.
Bull Case
The most useful way to frame Flowco is to put the price against the valuation families and see what it is paying for. At about $22.71 (June 27, 2026) the price sits above the asset-based anchors, which land in the mid-teens off a book value near $10.28 and a trailing return on equity around 13%, and below the aggressive forward-DCF frames, which run far higher on the company's roughly 29% revenue growth. The earnings-power and relative methods bracket the price. So the market is paying a premium to current book and earnings for a business it expects to keep compounding, which is reasonable for a company growing this fast at this margin.
The business itself is well positioned for where the oil-and-gas cycle actually is. Flowco does not depend primarily on new drilling; it helps producers squeeze more out of wells they already have. Its filing describes systems "to assist with artificial lift or production optimization" using "digital applications that provide real-time data monitoring, predictive maintenance" and vapor-recovery systems that "allow for the safe capture and monetization of high value hydrocarbons that would otherwise be" lost [FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-077219]. That is exactly the spending producers prioritize when they are cautious about drilling: management noted customers are asking how to optimize existing production and improve recovery factors rather than chasing new wells. A roughly 19% operating margin and interest coverage above eight times show the model converts that demand into solid economics.
Execution since the IPO supports the growth case. First-quarter 2026 revenue rose about 9% year over year to $209.5 million with net income up about 21%, and adjusted EBITDA of $85.5 million reached the top of guidance; the company guided second-quarter adjusted EBITDA to $93 million to $97 million. The Valiant Artificial Lift acquisition in March 2026 added scale to the core Production Solutions segment, and the rental platform has been a growth and margin driver. Analysts covering the name carry a strongly favorable consensus with price targets above the current price. If the growth holds, the premium the price pays is earned.
Bear Case
The bear case begins with a qualitative observation before any ratio: Flowco is a young, highly acquisitive company in a cyclical service industry, and the price already assumes the good times continue. The business was stitched together in 2025 from three separate companies and has since bought a fourth, so the track record as a single public entity is short, the comparables are thin, and the integration risk is real. When a company's history is measured in quarters, paying a premium multiple is a bet on a management story rather than a long record.
The fundamentals the price leans on are cyclical, and the cycle is not currently cooperating on the part that matters most. Flowco's customers are oil-and-gas producers, and the filing lists the drivers plainly: results depend on "supplies of, and demand for, oil and natural gas both domestically and globally" and "the level of exploration a" and development activity [FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-077219]. Management has said directly that it is "not seeing material activity increases as of yet." The optimization-spending thesis is genuine, but if commodity prices weaken or producers cut budgets, even maintenance and optimization work gets deferred. The filing also flags that "higher interest rates may affect customers' access to capital and willingness to invest in new or expanded production" [FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-077219], so the same rate environment that pressures the multiple also pressures the customer.
The price-to-fundamentals gap is the heart of it. At roughly 17 times operating income the price implies the company holds growth near its self-funding ceiling for about five years, and the framework flags that only a minority of similar fast-growers have sustained that pace for that long. The company also carries debt, with net debt around two and a half times operating profit, partly from funding the Valiant deal, so the balance sheet has less slack than a debt-free grower. The bet is that fast growth and high margins persist in a flat-activity environment, with integration of multiple acquisitions going smoothly. That is a lot to underwrite at this multiple, and any stumble on growth would pull the price down toward the asset-based anchors well below it.
Valuation
Flowco is valued as a whole company off its operating income, and the implied bet is on the demanding side. At about $22.71 the price works out to roughly 17 times company-wide operating profit, which inverts to an assumption that the company holds revenue growth near its self-funding ceiling for about five years. That is a single solve under an 11.6% cost of capital with growth searched up to a 25% ceiling, so it is approximate, but it points clearly toward an elevated reading: the price requires the recent fast pace to persist, and the framework notes only about 29% of comparable fast-growers sustained it that long.
The X-ray is widely dispersed, which is typical of a young, fast-growing company. The pure DCF frames are not useful here, landing absurdly high because they extrapolate the recent growth rate, and the FCF-yield frame is similarly inflated. The reliable anchors are the asset-based and earnings methods. Simple and two-stage excess return land in the mid-teens off a book value of $10.28 and a return on equity around 13%, the Graham number lands near $16.86, and residual income lands near $16.87. Those conservative, book-anchored methods sit below the current price, which is why the asset family reads as slightly stretched while the relative and growth families say the price is supported.
The honest synthesis is that this is a value-and-growth name where the current economics are strong but the price already pays for continuation. The business earns a high operating margin and good returns on equity, and the relative-multiple and earnings-power frames support the price. But the conservative anchors sit below it, and the duration the price embeds is on the long side for a fast-grower. The valuation works if growth holds and the acquisitions integrate; it looks expensive if oil-and-gas activity stays flat and growth decelerates toward the cost of capital.
Catalysts
The clearest near-term catalyst is the quarterly cadence, since Flowco is still establishing its track record as a public company. First-quarter 2026 results showed revenue of $209.5 million, up about 9% year over year, net income of roughly $7.4 million, earnings of $0.23 a share, and adjusted EBITDA of $85.5 million at the top of guidance. Management guided second-quarter adjusted EBITDA to a range of $93 million to $97 million, so that print is the next checkpoint on whether the growth and margin trajectory is intact.
Acquisition integration is a live driver. Flowco closed the Valiant Artificial Lift Solutions acquisition in March 2026 for about $200 million, funded with available borrowing capacity and a small share issuance, adding to the Production Solutions segment. Successful integration and the realization of expected synergies would support both the growth and margin story; a misstep would test the premium multiple. The rental platform and gross-margin improvement have been the operational levers to watch.
The macro swing factor is oil-and-gas customer activity. Management has been candid that it is not yet seeing material increases in drilling activity, even with geopolitical supply disruptions, though customers are leaning into optimizing existing production, which favors Flowco's artificial-lift and emissions-management offerings. Commodity prices, producer capital budgets, and the interest-rate environment that shapes customer access to capital are the variables to monitor. Analyst sentiment is favorable, with a strong consensus rating and price targets above the current price, which raises the bar for results to clear expectations.
Sources: Flowco Q1 2026 8-K, SEC; Flowco Q1 2026 results and Valiant acquisition, StockTitan; Flowco Q1 2026 earnings transcript, Motley Fool; FLOC forecast and analyst targets, StockAnalysis; Flowco NYSE debut and merger, StockTitan.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Production Solutions (reported)
- XPRO (Expro Group Holdings N.V.)
- FY2025 10-K: …specific engineering costs associated with a project. We also procure products and services on behalf of our customers that are provided by third parties for which we are reimbursed with a mark-up or in connection with an integrated services contract. We also design, manufacture and sell equipment, which is typically…
- FY2025 10-K: …and abandonment requirements. We offer advanced technology solutions in tubular running services, tubular products, cementing, drilling and wellbore cleanup. With a focus on innovation, we are continuing to advance the way wells are constructed by optimizing process efficiency on the rig floor, developing new methods…
- WTTR (SELECT WATER SOLUTIONS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …these instances, revenue for the applicable service lines are recognized concurrently when delivered. The Company recognizes revenue from certain sales when title passes to the customer, the customer assumes risks and rewards of ownership, collectability is reasonably assured and delivery occurs as directed by the…
- FY2025 10-K: …breakers and other chemical technologies. We source our products through our own manufacturing operations as well as through third-party producers and distributors. We provide 24/7/365 time-critical logistical support to our customers and our warehousing and service includes inventory management with computerized…
- GTLS (CHART INDUSTRIES, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …the storage, distribution, vaporization, and application of industrial gases and certain hydrocarbons. Our Heat Transfer Systems segment supplies mission critical engineered equipment and systems used in the recovery, separation, liquefaction, and purification of hydrocarbons, LNG and industrial gases that span…
- FY2025 10-K: …LNG. Management believes that continuing efforts by petroleum producing countries to better utilize stranded natural gas and associated gases which historically had been flared, present a promising source of demand. We have several competitors for our air cooled heat exchangers and fans, including many smaller…
Natural Gas Technologies (reported)
- INVX (INNOVEX INTERNATIONAL, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …hydraulic fracturing or further restrictions on the availability of capital for hydraulic fracturing could potentially cause a decrease in the completion of new oil and natural gas wells, increased compliance costs and time and an associated decrease in demand for our products. Such a decrease could have a material…
- FY2025 10-K: …compliance, claims, and liabilities relating to such matters may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial position or cash flows. o Our operations, and those of our customers, are subject to compliance with governmental regulations related to climate change. o Federal, state and local…
- NOV (NOV INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …core competencies to help customers improve efficiencies and reliability, lower costs, and reduce the environmental impact of producing energy. The Company has pioneered numerous solutions for the oil & gas industry that economically reduce carbon intensity and deliver superior performance, including NOV's…
- FY2025 10-K: …companies have spent over 160 years helping transform oil and gas development and improving its cost-effectiveness, efficiency, safety, and environmental impact. NOV's extensive proprietary technology portfolio supports the industry's drilling, completion, and production needs. With unmatched cross-segment…
- WHD (Cactus, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …Technologies The Spoolable Technologies segment designs, manufactures and sells spoolable pipe and associated end fittings under the FlexSteel brand. Our customers use these products primarily as production, gathering and takeaway pipelines to transport oil, gas or other liquids. In addition, we also provide field…
- FY2025 10-K: …delaying or banning, the hydraulic fracturing process or other processes on which hydraulic fracturing and subsequent hydrocarbon production relies, such as water disposal, could make it more difficult to complete oil and natural gas wells. Further, it could increase our customers' costs of compliance and doing…
- WFRD (Weatherford International plc)
- FY2025 10-K: …counts were notably lower than at December 31, 2024. The drop in oil prices and rig counts since December 31, 2024 has coincided with reduced activity levels across our industry. Henry Hub natural gas prices increased as of December 31, 2025 compared to December 31, 2024, driven by both U.S. domestic gas demand and…
- FY2025 10-K: …develop and produce from their oil and natural gas reservoirs more efficiently. Our products and services are designed to enable our customers to increase production rates while reducing their costs of drilling and production. Reportable Segments We offer our services and technologies in relation to the well life…
- FTI (TechnipFMC plc)
- FY2025 10-K: …for our products and services depends on oil and natural gas industry activity and expenditure levels and the demand for and price of oil and natural gas. • Competition and unanticipated changes relating to competitive factors in our industry, including ongoing industry consolidation, may impact our results of…
- FY2025 10-K: …These laws and regulations, as well as any new laws and regulations affecting exploration and development of drilling for oil and natural gas, are becoming increasingly strict and could adversely affect our business and operating results by increasing our costs, limiting the demand for our products and services, or…
- BKR (Baker Hughes Co)
- FY2025 10-K: …impact on supply against rising OPEC+ and offshore production. Taking these macro factors into consideration, we forecast modest declines in global upstream spending. We believe further reduction in idled OPEC+ production, alongside more constructive oil supply-and-demand balances, is required before a broad…
- FY2025 10-K: 5, 2024, and 2023, and should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements and related notes. Our revenue is predominantly generated from the sale of products and services to major, national, and independent oil and natural gas companies worldwide, and is dependent on spending by our customers for…
- DNOW (DNOW INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …downstream and industrial companies. • Gas Products. Natural gas distribution products include risers, meters, polyethylene pipe and fittings and various other components and industrial supplies used primarily in the distribution of natural gas to residential and commercial customers. • Pumps, Production and Process…
- FY2025 10-K: …expanded range of product and service offerings. Prior year amounts have been reclassified to the current presentation. See Note 3 "Revenue" and Note 16 "Business Segments" for additional information. The Company provides quality products customers require to build and maintain essential infrastructure and operating…
- GTLS (CHART INDUSTRIES, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …LNG. Management believes that continuing efforts by petroleum producing countries to better utilize stranded natural gas and associated gases which historically had been flared, present a promising source of demand. We have several competitors for our air cooled heat exchangers and fans, including many smaller…
- FY2025 10-K: …manufacture bulk and packaged gas cryogenic solutions for the storage, distribution, vaporization, and application of industrial gases. Our products span the entire spectrum of industrial gas demand from small customers requiring cryogenic packaged gases to large users requiring custom engineered cryogenic storage…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.