COMFORT SYSTEMS USA, INC. (FIX): what the price requires
At today's price, COMFORT SYSTEMS USA, INC. (FIX) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~5.5 years. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/FIX
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | FIX |
| Company | COMFORT SYSTEMS USA, INC. |
| Current price | $1726.23/sh |
| Composition | New Construction 63% / Existing Building Construction 23% / Service Projects 6% / Service Calls, Maintenance and Monitoring 7% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 9.7% |
| Operating margin today | 14.7% |
| Margin compression implied | -5.0pp |
| Must persist for | 5.5y |
| Multiple paid | 44x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 9, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 11.9% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 50% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~0.6 years.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~37.3%/yr; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: extreme
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | +0.62σ |
| cohort percentile (of 225 peers) | 86 |
| sustained it ~5.5 years at this level | 21% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 4.60x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 4.25x | 4 | expensive |
| Relative | 2.40x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 0.83x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=17)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $1967.01 | 0.88x | yes | FCF base $1.8B, growth 25% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.2%, 7yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $2078.98 | 0.83x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 34.3x / 36.3x / 38.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $1036.32 | 1.67x | yes | P/E 27.52x (blended: static sector reference 18x + trailing (TTM) 50x), scenarios: 22.0x / 27.5x / 33.0x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 19.29x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $375.27 | 4.60x | yes | BV/sh $79.86, ROE (TTM) 43.5%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $932.33 | 1.85x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $2504.74 | 0.69x | yes | Rev $10.1B, growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 4.8x / 6.0x / 7.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $415.68 | 4.15x | yes | EPS $34.64, growth 1% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=46.61 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $179.00 | 9.64x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.67B × (1−23%) / WACC 9.2% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $599.42 | 2.88x | yes | BV $79.86 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 43.5% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $249.48 | 6.92x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $34.64 × BVPS $79.86) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $583.52 | 2.96x | yes | EBITDA $1.66B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $443.18 | 3.90x | yes | FCF $1383.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $1117.72 | 1.54x | yes | EPS $34.64 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $151.17 | 11.42x | yes | BV $79.86 × (ROIC 17.4% / WACC 9.2%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $718.82 | 2.40x | yes | Revenue $10.14B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $1299.00 | 1.33x | yes | EPS $34.64 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $374.49 | 4.61x | yes | EPS $34.64 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net cash | $904.9m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | -0.86x (net cash) |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | -0.66x (net cash) |
| Interest coverage | 164.0x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -0.7% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
At $1,967 the price reaches only the growth methods, the DCF near $1,837 and the exit-multiple near $2,164, while the asset and earnings-power methods sit between roughly $167 and $450. The spread between them is the entire valuation question.
The gap exists for one reason: a data-center construction boom. Q1 2026 revenue surged 56% to $2.87 billion, same-store revenue grew 51%, EPS more than doubled to $10.51, and backlog hit a record $12.5 billion on technology demand.
The price is a duration bet on that boom lasting about six years. It works if AI and data-center capex keeps flowing into the backlog, and it unwinds fast if that capex cools, because the backlog can be cancelled or rescoped.
Bull Case
Lead with how far the price sits above the static methods, because the spread is the whole bull-bear debate. At roughly $1,967 the asset and earnings-power methods cluster between $167 and $450, the relative methods between $580 and $1,300, and only the growth methods reach the price: the perpetual-growth DCF at $1,837 and the exit-multiple DCF above the price at $2,164. When the methods that account for forward economics land near or above the price and only the no-growth frames disagree, the market is paying for durable compounding that the static models structurally cannot capture, and Comfort Systems is showing exactly that kind of compounding.
The Q1 2026 numbers are extraordinary for a mechanical contractor. Revenue surged 56% to $2.87 billion, same-store revenue grew 51%, net income more than doubled to $370.4 million or $10.51 per share, the operating margin reached an all-time high, and backlog hit a record $12.5 billion. The 10-K attributes the same-store gains to a sharp increase in activity, with hundreds of millions of dollars of same-store revenue growth on top of bolt-on acquisitions (accession 0001104659-26-017530). The driver is the technology sector, specifically data-center construction, where Comfort Systems installs the complex mechanical, electrical, and cooling systems that hyperscale facilities require.
The quality behind the growth is real, not financial engineering. Return on equity runs above 40%, the company holds net cash, and it generated $242 million of free cash flow in the quarter. A contractor that compounds revenue this fast while staying net-cash-positive and earning 40%-plus on equity is a rare combination, and the record backlog gives multi-quarter visibility into the demand. For a buyer who believes the data-center build-out is a multi-year secular wave rather than a one-cycle spike, the growth methods are the right lens and the price is the cost of owning the best-positioned mechanical contractor in it.
Bear Case
The disconnect to face is qualitative before it is numerical: this entire valuation rests on a single demand wave, the data-center build-out, and a contractor's backlog is not a contract carved in stone. The 10-K is explicit that projects can remain in backlog for extended periods, and that cancellations or scope adjustments may occur with respect to contracts in backlog, which could materially hurt the business (accession 0001104659-26-017530). The record $12.5 billion backlog that the bull case leans on is therefore a forecast, not a guarantee, and it is concentrated in one customer type at one moment of unusually heavy spending. If hyperscalers trim or delay their capital plans, the backlog that justifies a 40x-plus multiple can shrink faster than revenue, because new bookings stop before existing work finishes.
The numbers underline how much optimism is in the price. Strip out growth and the static methods are stark: the earnings-power method at $167, the FCF-yield method at $443, the simple excess-return method at $375, and the Graham number at $249, all a small fraction of the price near $1,967 (June 27, 2026). The stock trades at four to twelve times what its current earnings power and book support, on the premise that data-center demand keeps compounding for the better part of a decade. The composite reads high, not within range, and the model flags both the cohort comparison and the fade assumption as stretched, which is the framework's way of saying the bet is unusual against both peers and history.
The business is also more cyclical and concentrated than its current margins suggest. New construction is the majority of revenue, the stock carries a high beta near 1.5, and the 10-K warns that vendor, subcontractor, or general-contractor bankruptcies can decrease revenue and profit (accession 0001104659-26-017530), the kind of counterparty risk that surfaces when a building boom turns. The Q1 print was spectacular, but spectacular contractor margins at the top of a capex cycle are precisely what mean-revert. A name priced for roughly six years of sustained boom, with the boom driven by a single, capital-intensive, fast-moving customer set, is the definition of a high-beta bet where one cooling in AI spending resets the multiple hard.
Valuation
Inverting the price shows a duration bet on the boom. At $1,967 the market pays about 50x company-wide operating income, and because the implied growth hits the ceiling, the solve becomes a duration question: it requires the strong margin to fade only gradually, from the current 15.7% toward an implied 10.1%, over roughly six years at an 11.9% cost of capital. The model flags the fade assumption and the cohort comparison as the stretched elements, meaning the price needs the elevated economics to persist longer than the framework typically sees sustained.
The model X-ray is sharply tiered. The growth family reaches or exceeds the price, with the perpetual-growth DCF at $1,837, the exit-multiple DCF at $2,164, and the future-market-cap method at $2,669. The relative family is below, with sector-P/E at $1,116, the Ben Graham formula at $1,118, and the EV/EBITDA comp at $584. The asset and earnings families are far below: the earnings-power method at $167, the FCF-yield method at $443, the simple excess-return method at $375, and the Graham number at $249.
The resulting band runs from about $609 at the low end to $772 at the base and $896 at the high, with reliability tagged as ok, and today's price sits more than double the high mark. That is why the composite reads high. The honest summary is that only the growth methods justify the price, and they do so by extrapolating the data-center boom for years. The deciding variable is the durability of that demand wave, because everything below the growth family says the stock is expensive if the boom is even a few years shorter than the price assumes.
Catalysts
Q1 2026, reported in late April, was the most recent data point and it shattered records. Revenue surged 56% to $2.87 billion, same-store revenue grew 51%, net income more than doubled to $370.4 million or $10.51 per share against a $6.78 estimate, the operating margin hit an all-time high, and free cash flow reached $242 million. The single most important figure was backlog, which climbed to a record $12.5 billion on technology and data-center demand. The next print, and the backlog trajectory within it, is the cleanest read on whether the boom is still building.
Data-center capex is the dominant swing factor. Comfort Systems is a direct beneficiary of hyperscale construction, so any shift in the major technology companies' capital-spending plans, in either direction, would move the backlog and therefore the valuation more than the company's own execution. Watching new-bookings commentary each quarter matters more than the reported revenue, because bookings lead the backlog that the price capitalizes.
Sentiment has grown cautious even amid the strong results. At least one analyst downgraded the stock to Hold on stretched valuation and overbought technicals, noting it trades around 43 times 2026 earnings, more than double the sector median. The debate is not about the business quality, which is excellent, but about whether the price has run ahead of even a strong multi-year demand picture, leaving little room for any cooling in the data-center cycle.
Sources: stocktitan.net (Q1 2026 results), investing.com (Q1 2026 slides), seekingalpha.com (valuation and downgrade view), finance.yahoo.com (Q1 2026 highlights).
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Mechanical Segment (reported)
- IESC (IES Holdings, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- EME (EMCOR Group, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- MTZ (MasTec, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- STRL (Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- PWR (Quanta Services, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- GVA (GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- MYRG (MYR GROUP INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Electrical Segment (reported)
- IESC (IES Holdings, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- EME (EMCOR Group, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- MYRG (MYR GROUP INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- PWR (Quanta Services, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- MTZ (MasTec, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- STRL (Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.